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Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs Nov 18 2012 1:00PM
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Reason: My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.
#411 - NFL - 20 units on Philadelphia & Washington Over 44
#414 - NFL - 10 units on Detroit +3.5
#418 - NFL - 10 units on Carolina +1
#428 - NFL - 10 units on Kansas City +3.5
#430 - NFL - 10 units on Oakland +5
#432 - NFL - 10 units on San Diego & Denver Under 48.5 #434 - NFL - 10 units on Pittsburgh +3.5
NFL Sunday Picks Premium Plays Matchup: Green Bay at Detroit Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Detroit (+3.5 -120) Line Source: Caesars/Harrah's Posted on: November 16, 2012 @ 3:20:18 PM EST
The bad news for the Lions is it's desperation time. They are in a must-win situation and facing Green Bay, a team they've lost to 12 of the last 13 times. The good news for the Lions is they are home and catch the Packers down nine starters and without many of their key players, including Clay Matthews, Bryan Bulaga, Greg Jennings and Charles Woodson. The Packers have very little pass rush without Matthews. Matthew Stafford has been hot and can take advantage with a clean pocket and going after a youthful secondary minus their leader, Woodson. The Packers have been flat the last couple of weeks. They were fortunate to enter their bye having faced Jacksonville and Arizona at home. Those are two of the most inept offenses in the NFL. Facing the Lions and dealing with Calvin Johnson is going to be quite a change and challenge for the Packers.
Matchup: New Orleans at Oakland Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Oakland (+5.5 -110) Line Source: Bookmaker Posted on: November 12, 2012 @ 10:40:57 AM EST
Things are looking up for the Saints. They've won four of their last five and just dealt the Falcons their first loss. But the Saints are in a tough spot here and they don't have the defense to make up for it. New Orleans is flying cross-country and will be playing outdoors on grass. The Saints are a dome team that plays faster on carpet. They are 1-3 in their grass games this season, including losing to 2-7 Carolina. Not only is this a prime letdown spot for the Saints - who probably are overconfident after seeing Baltimore score 55 points on Oakland this past Sunday - but also in a look ahead spot, too. The Saints' next two games after this one are home against San Francisco and a rematch with their arch-rivals the Falcons. The Raiders laid an egg against Baltimore. But they have a dangerous passing attack with speed on the flanks, perhaps the best kicker/punter tandem and are 4-2 ATS the past six times they've been underdogs. Drew Brees is a great quarterback inside the Louisiana Superdome. He's not as great away from home. Yet Brees has to be near perfect along with the rest of his offense to carry such a weak defense. The Saints rank either last or second-to-last in total defense, pass defense and run defense. They are giving up more than 28 points per game and are on pace to surrender the most yards in a single season.
Matchup: San Diego at Denver Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (49.5 -110) Line Source: Bet Phoenix Posted on: November 13, 2012 @ 7:40:57 AM EST
Perhaps swayed by a quarterback duel between Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning, the oddsmakers opened this game too high.
The turnover-prone Chargers have become more of a running team, though. Rivers isn't what he was two years ago and his wide receivers aren't as good minus the departed Vincent Jackson.
The Chargers are just a middle-of-the-road offensive club. Their defense, though, ranks seventh in total yardage. They are the second most difficult team to run on. Peyton Manning's play-action passes are less effective if Willis McGahee isn't picking up yards on the ground, which is going to be difficult to do versus the Chargers.
Manning gets all the attention. But Denver has a very solid defense ranking in the top 11 in all the major statistical categories. Von Miller is in the discussion for most effective pass rushing linebacker and Champ Bailey is still a lock-down cornerback.
Rivers is going to be hampered if his left tackle, Jared Gaither, has to miss another week.
The weather in Denver also can turn tricky this time of year.
Member Plays Matchup: Philadelphia at Washington Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (43.5 -105) Line Source: The Greek Posted on: November 16, 2012 @ 11:08:54 AM EST
The early betting marketplace activity on this game has been on the under with the thinking being the Eagles' offense will suffer with rookie Nick Foles replacing injured Michael Vick. The Eagles do have a cluster injury situation with their offensive line. A rookie quarterback behind a makeshift offensive line usually is not a good combo. But I disagree with the early over/under money on this game. The total now is low enough to play over. These are two bad defenses. The Eagles are a fast-tempo, passing team built to attack. That's not going to change with Foles behind center. He's a very good prospect who shined during preseason. Foles has plenty of weapons and is operating against the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. The Redskins have given up an NFL-high 20 touchdowns through the air. The Redskins are yielding 27.6 points per game. The Eagles give up 24.6 points a game. That adds up to a combined 52 points. Robert Griffin III should have a big game against Philadelphia's faltering defense, which lacks a good pass rush and has an overrated secondary. The reeling Eagles have surrendered an average of 30.5 points during their past four games.
Guaranteed Plays Matchup: Indianapolis at New England Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New England (-9 -105) Line Source: The Greek Posted on: November 12, 2012 @ 6:58:26 AM EST
The Colts have made for a nice feel-good story winning four in a row behind their star rookie quarterback for their sick coach. The fairy tale, though, ends in Foxboro when the Colts go up against a real offense. The Colts' four straight victories have come against the following quarterbacks: Brandon Weeden, Matt Hasselbeck, Ryan Tannehill and Blaine Gabbert. If there's a worse starting quarterback in the AFC than Gabbert I've yet to see him. Weeden and Tannehill are error-prone rookies, while Hasselbeck is washed up. Indy's defense is a work in progress in the first year of a 4-3 after more than a decade of playing Cover-2. The Colts are no match for New England's No. 1 ranked offense, which rates first in scoring and yardage. Tom Brady can burn the Colts' base defense with passes to Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker, or he can turn loose a much-improved Stevan Ridley if the Colts go to any sub-packages. The Colts don't have nearly the depth or talent to hang with the Patriots' high-powered attack. Andrew Luck already is very good. He's covering up the fact than the Colts don't have a good ground game and have only one decent receiver. That's Reggie Wayne and he's past his prime. Luck has played well inside his home dome with an 88.6 passer rating and 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Away from home, though, Luck hasn't been so good with a 66.2 passer rating and seven interceptions with just two touchdown throws. The Colts have turned the ball over 12 times on the road compared to just three times at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Patriots rarely lose at home as evidenced by their NFL-best 70-14 regular-season in Foxboro since 2002.
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