11-18-12

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Sebastian's Sunday
NFL:
100 teaser OVER Philly and OVER GB
100 Oakland
100 Cleveland
100 Arizona
200 St. Louis Buy to 3
300 Detroit

College Basketball:
50 Minnesota

NBA:
50 Oklahoma City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Magnum Marc 11/18
Bengals -3
Browns +8
Packers -3
Rams -3 bought .5
Redskins -3

Colts/Pat over 53.5
Broncos -7.5
Ravens +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA's Pick Pack

NFL Sunday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Jacksonville at Houston
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Jacksonville (+15.5 -110)
Line Source: Bet Phoenix
Posted on: November 17, 2012 @ 12:25:47 PM EST

PLAY ON: Jacksonville + over Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM EST
We love the value of this play. The Jags are an “ugly dog” here but getting 16-points in this situation is too much. Think about it, if Jacksonville scores the first TD of the game, they are already up more than 3 TD’s! Houston is coming off a gigantic Sunday Night game as they went to Chicago and won 13-6. It was a statement game for them after getting destroyed by Green Bay a few weeks ago they wanted to prove they were as good as the best in the NFC. That’s not all. Now this Houston team is looking at a short week following this game as they play @ Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. Don’t expect the Texans to go crazy offensively in this game. They just want to get out with a win and hope to be fully healthy for Detroit. The Texans have already beaten this Jacksonville team this year so it will be tough for them to keep their entire focus on this game, especially with the tough scheduling spot. Jacksonville has had a few extra days to prepare after losing at home to Indianapolis last Thursday night. While the Jags have been terrible at home this year, they’ve actually been very competitive on the road. Their lone win of the season came @ Indy and their road losses have been by 3 @ Minnesota, by 3 @ Oakland, and by 9 @ Green Bay. If we look at that Green Bay game, the Packers were also favored by 16 points and failed to cover. In fact, they were outplayed by Jacksonville with the Jags putting up 341 total yards to the Packers 238. That was a one possession game with GB leading 21-15 with under 1:00 minute remaining. GB added a late FG to ice it but they were never in threat of covering that game. That was the only game this season where a team was favored by more than a TD. Historically those teams have not done well as team’s favored by more than 2 TD’s are just 65-80-3 ATS (44%) dating back to 1980. This will be a big game for the Jags facing a top notch team while just a “ho-hum” spot for Houston. Similar to the Green Bay game, we look for Jacksonville to hang around throughout and keep it much closer than this number. Houston wins, but not by more than 2 TD’s. Take the points with Jacksonville.


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Matchup: New Orleans at Oakland
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Over (54.0 -110)
Line Source: Wynn
Posted on: November 17, 2012 @ 12:46:32 PM EST

PLAY OVER in the New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders game - 4:15 pm EST

Last weekend we successfully called for an OVER in the Raiders at Ravens game which ended up being one of our easiest winners of the season as the two team tallied 75 total points. To be honest we expect a similar number today when the Saints travel to Oakland to face the Raiders. Oakland has all but abandoned their running game with multiple injuries to their backs including Darren McFadden. In their last two games the Raiders have attempted just 35 rushes for only 94 yards. That means they have to throw it offensively to move the chains. More passes and less running typically favor the 'over'. Where the running game has stalled for Oakland the passing game has thrived. In their last two games the Raiders have thrown it a combined 108 times for over 750 total yards. Oakland (5th in the NFL in passing yards per game & 2nd in attempts) should have success throwing the ball this Sunday against a Saints defense that ranks 31st or second to last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 307.3. Overall the Saints have the worst defense in the NFL statistically allowing 469 ypg and an average of 28.4 ppg. Now let's talk about the Saints. Drew Brees and company are going to move the chains and score a pile of points themselves against a Raiders D that gives up the most points per game in the NFL at 31.6. Oakland is also 23rd in the league in total defense allowing 374.9 yards per game and 24th in passing yards allowing an average of 255.9 pypg. New Orleans is also 3rd in pass attempts per game and 2nd in passing yards per game averaging over 300 pypg. Simply what we have here are two horrible defenses facing off against two offenses that will throw it a ton and produce plenty of quick, big scores. Even at 54 the oddsmakers have not set this number high enough. PLAY OVER!


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Member Plays
Matchup: Cleveland at Dallas
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Cleveland (+8 -110)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: November 17, 2012 @ 12:42:09 PM EST

Cleveland is in a great spot here, Dallas not so much. The Browns are coming off a bye giving them two full weeks to prepare for the Cowboys. Dallas, on the other hand, is coming off huge division battles with the Giants and Eagles the last two Sundays. That’s not all, the Cowboys have a short week after this one facing off against another division rival Washington on Thanksgiving Day. What a terrible spot for the up and down Cowboys. It’s not a great match up for the Dallas offense. The Cowboys simply don’t run the ball well or often. They average just 85 YPG on only 23 carries. That ranks them at or near the bottom of the NFL in both categories. With RB Demarco Murray still out, we don’t look for that to change here. Thus, the Cowboys will throw the ball here. The problem with that is, Cleveland, believe it or not, has two of the best corners in the league in Joe Haden and Sheldon Brown. It must might be the best tandem in the NFL. They can absolutely match up with the Dallas receivers. That means Tony Romo will most likely have to force a few throws and that’s not good for him as he already has thrown 10 interceptions at home this year. Romo is averaging 1.4 interceptions thrown per game which is second worst in the NFL. The Browns are averaging 1.1 interceptions per game on defense so you can expect some takeaways here. Cleveland is actually playing fairly solid football. They are 2-2 their last 4 games with wins over San Diego and Cincinnati, a close loss @ Indy (by 3) and a 10-point loss to Baltimore in a game that was much closer than the final score. Dallas has been outgained in three of their last four games and most come down to the wire. The Cowboys have just one win by more than 7 points this season. They have won only one game at home this year and that was a 16-10 win over Tampa. Dallas is just 2-10 ATS their last 12 home games and we think Cleveland hangs around and has a shot to win this game outright. Take the points with the Browns.


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Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Pittsburgh (+3.5 -110)
Line Source: CarbonSports
Posted on: November 17, 2012 @ 12:21:48 PM EST

ASA NOW 17-6 ON SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT GAMES! Get our next PRIME TIME TV WINNER Monday!

PLAY ON: Pittsburgh + over Baltimore, Sunday at 7:30 PM CST

This marquee game has lost some of its luster because of the absence of Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger. What we did gain with the loss of Roethlisberger is some serious line value. The advanced line last week on this game had the Steelers favored by 5. As of this writing the Steelers are getting 3.5 points so a full 8.5 point swing because of Roethlisberger. Just as a sidenote, we expect this line to drop and we like the Steelers as a dog or pick-em. A line adjustment was need but not nearly that much. Let’s keep in mind here, Pittsburgh has the #1 defense in the NFL allowing 265 YPG which is a full 16 yards better than #2 (Houston). Now we get them at home getting points against a Baltimore defense that has fallen off the map this season. The Ravens are banged up defensively playing without their top LB (Lewis) and top DB (Webb). Their best defensive lineman, Haloti Ngata, is still banged up and didn’t play last week. His status is up in the air. The Ravens, believe it or not, rank 28th in the NFL in total defense. They rank 26th in rush defense and have allowed a number of teams to top 200 yards this season. Pittsburgh now has 3 healthy RB’s (Mendenhall, Redman, & Dwyer) and we look for them to have a solid day against this banged up unit. New Pitt QB Byron Leftwich is a seasoned veteran who will come in and run the offense effectively. He didn’t look very good on Monday night, but let’s remember he was thrown into the fire with little preparation due to the Roethlisberger injury. Now the Pitt coaches have had a full week to get him ready and cater their offense to his strengths. Let’s not pretend that Baltimore is some juggernaut on the football field. The fact is, this team has lost 5 of their last 7 games with their only wins coming over Cleveland and Oakland. On top of that, this team has been terrible on the road. They lost @ Philly (who has 3 wins on the season), beat a 1 win KC team by a FG despite being outgained in the game, lost @ Houston by 30, and then held on to beat Cleveland and were also outgained in that game. Now they must find a way to all of the sudden play well on the road at a place where the Steelers have won 14 of their last 15 games. The last 7 times the Steelers have been tabbed a home dog (dating back to 2000), they have covered 6 of those games winning 5 outright. Another SU win for Pittsburgh here as we take the points.

Good luck ASA

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The Broker

Cleveland +8

Denver -7.5

Rams -3.5

Bengals / Kansas City Under 43.5

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Sports bank
500 cowboys

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Royal Sports 11/18
Play: Detroit and Carolina

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Brandon Lovell


20 Star NFL Redskins -3.5

NFL DOUBLE YOUR WAGER
GAME OF THE YEAR

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Millionaires club
pittsburgh - ravens over

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TheProSource


Carolina + 1.5
vs Tampa Bay 1 pm et
Carolina is in a great spot to avenge their opening week loss at Tampa.
Tampa Bay's defense is 30th in the NFL in yards per game allowed.
Carolina will find success behind the wild card antics and problems QB
Cam Newton will present. The Panthers are a much better team than
their record shows, losing 5 games by 6 or less. TB has been fortunate
getting turnovers, and the Panthers home loss last week gives us value.
The Bronco's showboated a lot last week in the win, getting almost half
their points on defense and special teams. Young QB newton showed
a lot of class not pointing fingers, & defending his offense even though
he spent a lot of the day on his back. Carolina will be an angry team
playing with revenge, and they'll be charged up to play well for Newton
and the home fans. TB is a terrible road favorite, 3-11-1. Tampa lost in
a similar spot last season laying -3 vs a terrible Jags team, and lost
41-14. Carolina is A LOT better team, and will be playing inspired ball.
Carolina is 13-2 after allowing 35(+), and on the flip side, Tampa Bay's
momentum hurts them here.
Play AGAINST a team with 3 SU/ATS wins in a row, with 90+ points
scored during that span & is installed as a road favorite.
70% for over 25 seasons.


Jacksonville +16
vs Houston 1 pm et
We'll have to close our eyes a bit here, and follow the systems.
The Texans could blow out the hapless Jags, but off one of the most
grueling games of the season, a 13-6 slugfest win over the Bears in
the Sunday Niter at Chicago, the Texans will be flat, & flat out tired.
There's too heavy a price to pay backing the 8-1 home team.
The Texans historically fail in these spots, 0-6-2 favs off a SU dog win.
Houston is also laying their most points in franchise history today,
Four years ago, the rising Texans layed -14 vs a pathetic Rams team,
and almost lost, escaping with a 16-13 win. On the flip side, the Jags
are 2-0 in their franchise history when taking 2 TD's(+).
here's a multi tiered systm to
Play ON a road underdog who failed to cover in TWO straight games
as a home underdog IF the home dog failed to score 16 or more pts in
their last game. 13-3, 81% for over 30 seasons.
Houston is also very close to our situation to:
Play AGAINST an favorite of 17 or more points IF the favorite has also
won back to games SU . S1992, 17-6-1, 74% for 20 seasons.


Oakland + 6
vs New Orleans 4 pm et
We have to figure the Saints to let down after taking down the last
unbeaten team, and a division rival no less.
The Raiders allowed 55 pts last week ina loss at Baltimore, BUT
the Silver and Black actually out gained Baltimore. Oakland also
owns one of the more productive offensives in the NFL, and they
will be happy to let it fly vs one of the leagues worst defenses.
New Orleans is allowing over 28 ppg, and over 450 yds/gm.
Play ON a non-division home dog in this spread range that allowed
40 or more points last week. 34-10, 77% for over 25 seasons.





Oakland OVER 54 ** TOP Play **
vs New Orleans 4 pm et
Play the Over when the total is in this range and the HOME team
scored 20 or more points and lost by 20 or more points on the road
last week. S2001, 17-4-1, 81%.




nba


Toronto - 4 1 pm et
The Magic injuries are piling up, which hurts a team already short and
talent and with a weak bench . Without couldn’t Hedo Turkoglu and
Jameer Nelson , the advantage tilts to the home team Raptors.
Toronto is a very team in BB spots, and they are a team we like to back
on their home court in these odd Sunday start time games.


Philadelphia UNDER 193 6 pm et
Phillys lack of offenseive talent should keep this pace in check
The 76ers have only Jrue Holiday averaging more than 14 ppg.
Phil UNDER 17-59 4-26 3rd(+) Home game
Cle UNDER 53-101 on Sunday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

3-Unit Play. #729. Take Richmond +10.5 over Minnesota (Sunday @ 7pm est).

Minnesota is a very good team and it is always difficult going against such teams. But, our numbers show that Richmond is not a push over and I wouldn't be surprised to see them hang in the double-digit spread here. Richmond in my power rankings is a top 40 team and Minnesota is a top 20 team. This is a team that won 16 games last year and returns essentially everybody including 4 important starters who all play a vital role in the offense. Last year they were top 45 in turnover percentage and top 15 in free throw shooting as Chris Mooney teams have always shot free throws well. Minnesota has absolutely been crushing teams at home but Richmond is their toughest contest yet. This should be a highly competitive defensive battle and to get double-digits on a game that likely will fall around 130 is not a bad idea here. Look for Richmond to make this contest into a half-court game and as tough as it is, I like Richmond to hang tough here as they have the defensive, returning starters and free throw shooting to hang within single digits here.

4-Unit Play. #709. Take Golden State Warriors +10 over OKC Thunder (Sunday @ 7pm est). [Line is available at MGM, Ceasers and Stations].

4-Unit Play. #715. Take Houston Rockets +7 over LA Lakers (Sunday @ 9:35pm est).

The Warriors come off back to back wins over Minnesota and Atlanta. Both of these teams were solid top 20 teams and now they go on the road to face OKC who they lost to last year handily by 23. This is a big revenge game for them and a benchmark to see if they have improved from last year with their new look team this year. This game is a much bigger deal for the Warriors than it is for the Thunder. The Thunder come off a romping off the Hornets on the road as they were ticked from their poor performance on national television against Memphis. The Thunder could have a big let down after that huge win over the Hornets and I can see the Warriors playing them tough in Oklahoma City tonight. Plus, the Thunder have the Clippers in their next contest so this game is sandwiched in and they might be looking ahead. As per the Rockets, its exciting that Coach D'Antoni will coach his first game against them. The Rockets come off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Portland on the road in a game they had revenge. They will look to rebound and bounce-back here. The Lakers come off a nice win and cover over the Suns but the Suns played them close most of the way. The Rockets are better power ranking team than the Suns which shows that they are a 7 point dog compared to the Suns who were 9 point dogs. I like the Rockets on the bounce-back here and while the public likes the Lakers here, I have them winning by about 5.5 on my models so this is worth us taking the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

3g Sports - Lions

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Tampasports
carolina-1
ny jets +3.5
denver/san diego- under total 47.5

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red suit (2 plays, one coming)

pack/lions over 53

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Hoopsgooroo 11/18

412 Redskins -4 @ 1p
414 Lions +3.5 @ 1p
415 Cards +10 @ 1p
418 Panthers +2 @ 1p
419 Browns +8 @ 1p
421 Jets +3.5 @ 1p
425 Jaguars +15.5 @ 1p
427 Bengals -3.5 @ 1p
430 Raiders +6 @ 4:05p
423 Colts +10 @ 4:25p
432 Broncos -8 @ 4:25p

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Youngstown Connection
Date: Sunday November 18, 2012
$25.00 NFL Guaranteed Selection #1

#413 Green Bay -3 1PM Eastern

Line from CRIS

Lines as of 345AM Eastern 11/18/12