11-25-12

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PSYCHIC
(1-5)

5 unit Chicago (WISEGUY)
5 unit St. Louis (WISEGUY)

WIZARD
(1-20)

19 unit Buffalo +3 (AFC Game of the Year)
10 unit Oakland +9.5
10 unit Denver -10

10 unit Toronto +1.5 (CFL)

Kenny Nguyen
(1-50)

15 unit Denver -10
40 unit San Francisco 1 (NFC Game of the Year)

JT WALKER
(all units same)

Miami +3

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Totals 4 You Selections for Early Sunday, November 25th

2012 AFC North Division Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Pittsburgh/Cleveland over 34 1/2Early NFL Bets Bets
Oakland/Cincinnati under 50 1/2
Buffalo/Indianapolis under 51
Denver/Kansas City over 44
Seattle/Miami under 37 1/2

2012 National Football League Primetime Total of the Year!!!!!
Green Bay/NY Giants over 51

Late NFL Best Bets
Baltimore/San Diego under 47
San Francisco/New Orleans under 49
St Louis/Arizona under 37

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EM Sports FB
Rams
Chargers

Falcons

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

No 4* Best Bets today.

3* = SAN FRANCISCO
3* = SEATTLE
2* = DENVER
2* = PITTSBURGH
2* = "OVER" on Packers/Giants

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Accuscore NFL

Written by Jon Lee

Analyst: 10-2-1 Last 5 Weeks – NFL Week 12 Picks

Baltimore Ravens +1 at San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are in the middle of another tailspin under Norv Turner with Phillip Rivers looking more and more mediocre every week. They blew out Baltimore last year at home in December, the only loss for the Ravens in their final seven games. That is likely why San Diego is favored even though they are clearly the inferior team at this point in the year. Baltimore isn’t playing at a fantastic level on either offense or defense, but they are simply winning ball games and that’s all that matters in the NFL and with a line like this. I just see the Chargers are a team going entirely in the tank, under what is likely a lame duck coach.

Analyst Jon Lee was 2-0 last week, and he was 4-0 the last two weeks. Going back 5 weeks, he’s 10-2-1. Making picks against the spread and on totals is his specialty, and he’s been consistently dominating the NFL handicapping world this season. Members: Sign in now to see Jon Lee's pick on the Giants vs the Packers.

Green Bay Packers +134 ML at New York Giants

The last time I gave out a value pick, the Steelers beat the Giants on the road outright as an underdog. I am going against the Giants again in this spot as the Packers are winning simulations outright nearly 54 percent of the time. Instead of taking the +2.5 points at -110, I would rather take the money line here at +134 providing a better value in what is likely at worst, a 50-50 proposition. The Giants have played very poorly the past two weeks losing to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Eli Manning hasn’t thrown a touchdown in three weeks while throwing four picks. Green Bay is a great value in this spot.

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Paul Leiner:
1500* NFL Over 49.5 Saints/49ers
100* NFL Over 37.5 Dolphins/Seahawks
50* NFL Colts -3

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Football Crusher
Indianapolis Colts -145 over Buffalo Bills
(System Record: 32-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 32-39-4

Basketball Crusher
Phoenix Suns +4.5 over Philadelphia 76ers
(System Record: 16-1, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 16-9-0

Soccer Crusher
Club Atletico All Boys + Velez Sarsfield UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 322-12, won last game)
Overall Record: 322-280-35

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BEN BURNS
November 25, 2012 - 1:00 PM NFL Denver vs. Kansas City *VERY EARLY* Burns' 10 Top Division Report ~ SPECIAL OFFER SportsInteraction @ 11.5 -110 Kansas City Detail

November 25, 2012 - 1:00 PM NFL Seattle vs. Miami *EARLY* Burns' *10 Non-Conf. BEST BET! ~ HURRY FOR SPECIAL SportsInteraction @ 3 -105 Miami Detail

November 25, 2012 - 1:00 PM NFL Denver vs. Kansas City *10 Blue Chip SportsInteraction @ Under 44 -110 Detail

November 25, 2012 - 1:00 PM NFL Tennessee vs. Jacksonville 3-Game Ultimate Totals Report Pinnacle @ Under 44.5 -103 Detail

November 25, 2012 - 1:00 PM NFL Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay 3-Game Ultimate Totals Report Legends @ Under 51.5 -110 Detail

November 25, 2012 - 4:05 PM NFL Baltimore vs. San Diego *UPSET ALERT* Burns' *10* "False Favorite" BEST OF THE BEST! SportsInteraction @ 2 -110 San Diego Detail
November 25, 2012 - 8:20 PM NFL Green Bay vs. N.Y. Giants *ACT FAST* Burns' *10 MAIN EVENT! (9-1 YTD!) SportsInteraction @ Under 51 -110 Detail

November 25, 2012 - 8:20 PM NFL Green Bay vs. N.Y. Giants Burns' Sunday NFL Personal Favorite! (Won 59-24 w/ Pats LW!) Legends @ -2 -130 N.Y. Giants

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SLIM JIM (34-16)

Chicago
Atlanta
New Orleans

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Mighty Quinn NFL Card
*Giants
Raiders
Steelers
Colts
Broncos
Jaguars
Vikings
Bucs
Dolphins
Ravens
Saints
Rams
Panthers

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Dr Bob

Best bets
Seattle
Pittsburgh
buffalo

strong opinion
san fran



2 Star Best Bet
Seattle (-3.0) 24 MIAMI 14
25-Nov-2012 10:00AM Pacific
Seattle is coming out of their bye week riding a 2 game winning streak and teams that are playing well usually carry over that momentum through their bye week. That’s especially the case for road favorites, who are 40-16 ATS after a bye week after winning their previous 2 or more games before their bye. The record is 34-9 ATS if the home dog is not also on a winning streak, including 24-2 ATS since 1999. I certainly don’t have a problem siding with the Seahawks here, as they are better on both sides of the ball.

Seattle’s offense is average for the season (5.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and Miami rates as average defensively, allowing 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense. Seattle’s big advantage in this game is when Miami has the ball, as the Dolphins are a 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while the Seahawks are 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl).

My math model projects the Seahawks with a 344 yards to 252 yards edge in this game and overall the math favors Seattle by 6 ½ points, so we’ve got some line value to go along with the good situation. I’ll take Seattle in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less (at -120 odds or better).


3 Star Best Bet
Pittsburgh (-1.0) 23 CLEVELAND 13
25-Nov-2012 10:00AM Pacific
Pittsburgh was a good bet last week without Ben Roethlisberger, as the Steelers outgained Baltimore 311 yards at 4.5 yards per play to 201 yards at 3.6 yppl and lost by 3 points due to a huge portion of negative variance – a -3 turnover margin and a Baltimore punt return touchdown. Charlie Batch takes over for Byron Leftwhich, who selfishly didn’t come out of last week’s game despite broken ribs that made him ineffective throwing the ball. Charlie Batch has been a solid backup over the years for the Steelers and I’ll assume that he’ll be a full yards per pass play worse than Roethlisberger since Batch’s 5.8 career yards per pass play average is a full yard below Roethlisberger’s career 6.8 yppp average. Another negative is Batch’s career 3.1% interception percentage, but I don’t expect that high of a percentage in this new offensive system the Steelers have implemented this season, as Roethlisberger’s interception percentage declined greatly this season (1.3% compared to 2.9% for his career), as did Leftwich’s (1.9% this year and 2.6% prior). Batch’s career interception percentage was around the league average for the time he got most of his career attempts, but interception percentages have decreased league wide since Batch’s days as a starter so I’ll project Batch at the league average percentage. That’s still higher than Pittsburgh’s team percentage this season.

Now the good news. Pittsburgh has a dominating defense that’s allowed just 4.3 yppl and 16.4 points in 7 games since James Harrison joined the lineup in week 5. That unit should have no problem containing a Browns’ attack that has averaged a modest 5.0 yppl for the season (despite facing teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Cleveland hasn’t faced a defense anywhere close to as good as Pittsburgh’s stop unit, but the Browns have scored 16 points or fewer in half of their games and that is very likely to be the case in this game.

Pittsburgh’s pass attack is certainly down a few notches without Ben Roethlisberger but the rushing attack has picked up considerably since Mike Adams was inserted into the starting lineup at tackle, going from 77 rushing yards at 3.1 ypr through the first 5 games to 140 yards at 4.9 ypr since week 7. The rushing attack continued to perform last week (134 yards at 5.0 ypr) even with a less dangerous quarterback to keep the Ravens’ defense honest. Cleveland has a better than average defense that I rate at 0.3 yards per play better than average and my math model projects just 328 yards at 4.6 yppl for the Steelers in this game. However, the math projects the Browns with just 208 yards at 3.8 yppl, so Pittsburgh still has a huge edge from the line of scrimmage even with Batch at quarterback. Overall the math favors Pittsburgh by 4 ½ points and the Steelers apply to a 47-12 ATS bounce-back situation that is 21-0 ATS since 2003. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars up to -2 ½ points.


3 Star Best Bet
Buffalo (+3) 25 INDIANAPOLIS 20
25-Nov-2012 10:00AM Pacific
Buffalo was thought to have the pieces defensively to be pretty good on the stop side of the ball this season but the Bills started the season with some bad defensive performance through the first 5 games of the season. Defensive improvement started in game 6 after a season ending injury to ineffective DE Mark Anderson, as Chris Kelsay and especially Kyle Moore have done a good job in place of Anderson. The biggest improvement was made two weeks ago when veteran CB Leodis McKelvin took over a starting spot from Aaron Williams, who was getting burned with regularity. McKelvin has allowed an average of just 6.3 yards for every pass targeted at him while Williams has allowed 9.8 yards per pass this season. With their current lineup the Bills allowed just 348 yards at 5.2 yards per play to New England’s potent attack and held Miami to 184 yards at 3.3 yppl last week. Buffalo has gone from allowing 6.8 yppl and 35.2 points per game through the first 5 games (against teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) to yielding just 5.1 yppl and 24.6 points the last 5 games (against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense). The defense is even better than that with McKelvin in the lineup and that improved unit should keep a mediocre Colts’ attack (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) in check.

Buffalo’s offense is better than the Colts’ offense, as the Bills have been 0.3 yppl better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Bills’ improved defense is better than a Colts’ defense that’s allowed 6.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team. Buffalo’s season numbers on defense are actually 0.2 yppl better than Indy’s defensive rating and Buffalo is considerably better defensively with their current lineup.

The Bills are better on both sides of the ball on a compensated yards per play basis but the Colts are expected to run about 8 more plays than the Bills will and the projected total yards are about even. The Bills do have special teams and my math model favors Buffalo by 1 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value the Colts apply to a very negative 68-147-4 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense. I’ll take Buffalo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 at -130 odds or better and for 2-Stars at worse than that.


NFL Strong Opinions
San Francisco (-1.0) 27 NEW ORLEANS 21
25-Nov-2012 1:25PM Pacific
I haven’t had much luck going against New Orleans the last 4 weeks (1-3 ATS in those bets), but my opinion of the Saints has not changed. New Orleans may be 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games but they’ve still been a below average team during that run and not much different than they were when they started the season 0-4. For the season the Saints have been outgained 392 yards at 6.2 yards per play to 464 yards at 6.6 yppl by an average schedule of opponents. During the 5-1 streak the Saints have been outgained 385 yards at 6.5 yppl to 463 yards at 6.7 yppl by teams that are 0.1 yppl better than average. The Saints’ defensive rating is exactly the same in their last 6 games as it is for the season (1.1 yppl worse than average) while the offense has gotten a bit better (+1.0 yppl compared to +0.8 yppl for the season).

New Orleans is still a team that is 0.1 yppl worse than average and they are at a huge disadvantage against a 49ers team that is 0.9 yppl better than average on offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). My math model projects the 49ers with a 150 yards edge in this game while averaging 7.6 yppl to the Saints’ 5.5 yppl, and that projection was with only a very slight 0.1 yppl bump up in the Niners’ offense with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. The Niners would be expected to win by 12 points based on the projected boxscore and special teams ratings in this game, but the Saints have been very good in their red zone defense, which is why they’ve allowed a not too bad 27.3 points per game despite allowing a horrendous 464 total yards per game. The discrepancy between what the Saints allow and what their stats would predict them to allow is partly due to variance, but let’s say the it’s not variance at all and that New Orleans will continue to be better than expected in their red zone defense. If that’s the case then I get San Francisco by 8 points in this game, so the Niners are certainly the value side here. Unfortunately, the situation strongly favors New Orleans in this game, as the Saints apply to an 89-38-3 ATS home momentum situation while the 49ers apply to a negative 4-30-1 ATS subset of a 48-115-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation. Of course, San Francisco barely qualifies as a road favorite in this game and the line value is certainly more significant than the situational analysis. I can’t make this game a Best Bet with such strong situations going the other way, but I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion.

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Accuscore NFL 4*

Oakland
Jacksonville
Balt/SD under
Green Bay

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ATS LOCK

8 Denver
5 Cinncy
4 Jax

Hoops
4 Gonzaga

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Kelso

50 st Louis

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Accuscore NBA 4*

Detroit
Portland