12-2-12

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The insider

went 6-3 yesterday but was very close to being 8-1!

* nfl *
dolphins
titans
jaguars
seahawks
browns
cowboys/eagles over

* cbb *
maryland
whisky/cal over

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Betting Line Moves NCAABB 12/2

713 maryland over 129 1/2

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Vegas Runner
3* Miami
2* Tenn
2* Den/Balt 7 pt teaser
2* Den/Det 7 pt teaser

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Dr. Ed Meyer | NFL Side Sun, 12/02/12 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 339 SEA 3.5 (-110) SportsInteraction vs 340 CHI
Analysis:
Seattle lost a hard-fought battle in Miami last week, getting beat 24-21 after taking a 14-7 lead into the fourth quarter. The knee-jerk reaction would be to play on Chicago here, because they had an easy win over the Vikings last week. Often, however, the first instinct is not the correct one simply because the linesmakers know where the money is going and will adjust the line accordingly. By actually doing the research instead of blindly speculating, it becomes clear that the Seahawks are the side on which to be.
Seattle is 14-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) when they are off a 1-3 point loss that went over the total, as long as they were not a favorite of more than seven points in that loss and 10-0 ATS off a loss to a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The SDQL for the latter of this brace is:
team=Seahawks and p:L and p:NDIV and p:M3>0 and season>=1998
Note that the Seahawks have won by an average of 15.8 ppg and covered by an average of 12.2 ppg in this spot.
Seattle’s defense was not at their best vs Miami, allowing 435 total yards of offense. We expect them to be focused and fierce in their second straight tough road game. The Seahawks are 13-0 ATS in the history of the database after November, during the regular season as a dog when they are off a game in which they allowed at least 60 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average, as long as they did not win the game by more than two TDs. The SDQL text is:
team=Seahawks and month in [12,1] and D and po:TY-tA(po:TY)>60 and REG and p:margin<=14
The Bears have disappointed many a backer in this spot. Chicago is 0-17-1 ATS during the regular season the week after a win as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average, as long as the total is higher than 35 points. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Bears and p:WF and p:TOP-tA(p:TOP)>=180 and NB and total>35 and REG and season>=1996
In their last two active dates in this spot, the Bears have scored 7 and 6 points respectively.
Finally, the Bears seem to lose their edge after a game in which they opened up a big early lead, going 0-8 ATS since 2006 when they are off any game in which they led by double-digits after the first quarter as a favorite of more than a field goal. Check it out with this SDQL text:
team=Bears and p:M1>=10 and p:line<-3 and season>=2006
3.5 points is a LOT in a game like this. Grab’em.
MTi’s FORECAST: Seattle 17 CHICAGO 16

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Larry Ness' 10* LEGEND Play (2-0 TY in NFL!)

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Det Lions at 1:00 ET.
Coming off a 2-14 season and with Peyton Manning off to Denver, little was expected of the Colts in 2012, even though few doubted that No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck was the real deal. While much was expected from Luck, it was supposed to take some time for the former Stanford signal caller to lead Indianapolis' post-Peyton Manning turnaround. Instead, Luck has taken charge of a 7-4 Colts team that holds the fifth seed in the conference and has yet to drop back-to-back games all season, after rebounding from a 59-24 loss at New England on Nov 18 with last Sunday's 20-13 victory over Buffalo. In comparison, much was expected from the Lions, who were coming off a 10-6 season, which ended the team’s 11-year postseason drought which had gone back to 1999. However, at 4-7, the Lions are well out of the NFC playoff race. That said, one needs to take a closer look at the two teams. The Colts were 2-14 last year (minus-187 in point differential), while the Lions were 10-6 (plus-87). The rosters of the two teams are not that much different this year. The Colts may be 7-4 but they are minus-43 in point differential (hardly a good sign). In comparison, the 4-7 Lions are just minus-13 in point differential and the “stat book” says the Lions have outgained NINE of 11 opponents in 2012 .Neither team runs the ball well, with the Colts averaging 108.3 YPC (3.9 YPC) and the Lions 100.5 YPG (4.2 YPC). Turning to the QBs, Luck is being hailed ast the next Payton Manning or Johnny Unitas but numbers never lie His 56.8 completion percentage is higher than only Sanchez and Weeden among regular NFL starters. He’s thrown for 3,205 yards but has a TD-to-INT ratio is only 13-13. His QB rating of 76.7 ranks 29th in the NFL. Detroit’s Stafford is off a season in which he threw for 5,038 yards with 41 TDs and 16 INTs last season and while he’s on pace to pass for almost 5,000 yards again, his TD-to-INT ratio is only 14-10. The Lions will have an extra three days to digest that unpalatable OT loss to the Texans on Thanksgiving (never trailed before final score), despite posting 29 FDs and 525 yards (Schwartz' mental error won't soon be forgotten). This marks the team’s final game of a three-game homes (lost the first two) and with the team's playoff hopes all but over, I expect a great effort. The Colts are 2-3 SU on the road, beating only Tennessee and Jacksonville, which are a combined 6-16. The team’s three road losses are 41-21 at Chicago, 35-9 at the Jets and 59-24 at the Pats. It should also be noted that 16 of Indy’s 21 turnovers this year have come on the road. The Colts are an inspirational team this year (all know the Pagano saga) but the truth is, this team is “doing it with mirrors.” The reflection IMPLODES on Sunday, as the Lions play like the playoff team of last year.

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Ness triple pack is Chicago,patriots, and Oakland, also is totals gom is Oakland/Cleveland over

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Larry Ness' 10* NFL December Total G.O.M. (9-3 since 2010)

My 10* NFL Dec Total of the Month is on Cle/Oak Over at 4:25 ET.
The Cleveland Browns forced EIGHT turnovers from the Steelers last week (had just ONE of their own) but still managed just 20 points. However, the good new is, it was good enough for a six-point win, just their SECOND win in the last 18 meetings with the Steelers! Cleveland has a chance for another milestone this week in Oakland, where the Browns will be looking to end a franchise-record 12 consecutive road losses, dating back to last season’s Week 2 win at Indianapolis. The Browns are just 3-8 on the season (not to mention those 12 straight losses on the road), yet a have been installed as a road favorite. I guess that tells us all we need to know about how Oakland’s season is going. The Raiders were 3-4 after seven games but have lost four straight, while allowing a whopping 169 points (42.3 per), the second-most point total during a four-game span since the merger in 1970. The Oakland defense has also allowed 182.0 YPG on the ground during that stretch, on 6.0 YPC. That should put a smile on Trent Richardson’s face, as the rookie has 755 rushing yards on the season, after averaging 102.5 YPG over his last four. Rookie QB Brandon Weeden has had his struggles (sad-sack QB rating of 70.9, completing only 55.9% with 12 TDs and 13 INTs). The 29-year-old rookie suffered a concussion late in last Sunday's 20-14 win over Pittsburgh, but he was cleared to practice on Wednesday and is expected to start. Here’s the good news. Unlike last week, when the Browns couldn’t capitalize on eight Pittsburgh turnovers because they were facing the NFL’s No. 1 defense (Pittsburgh allows a league-low 257.2 YPG), this Sunday the Browns draw that Oakland D. I’ve already mentioned Oakland's recent disastrous numbers during its four-game slide but let ne add here that Oakland's allowing an NFL-high 32.4 PPG on the season and Weeden will be facing an Oakland pass D which is allowing 65.7% completions (23 TDs against just six INTs) and owns an NFL-worst 101.9 opponents’ QB rating. The weather is NOT expected to be very good in Oakland (some rain and a little cool) but this is a situation in which the Browns can score. As for Oakland, the team can’t run (82.7 YPG on 3.7 YPC with just three rushing TDs all season), so it’s all on the shoulders of Carson Palmer. All things considered, he’s played well in 2012, completing 60.4% for 289.2 YPG with 18 TDs and 12 INTs. I see little reason that Palmer won’t put points up on the Cleveland defense, meaning this game could go over by two TDs or more this low total.

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Sports bank
400 detroit

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Millionaires club
lock
rams
san diego

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Mike Lineback NFL

Teaser: GB & Denver
KC Chiefs

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Tampasports

jacksonville +6
chicago -3 his best bet 39-18 in foots on best bets
oakland +3

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Goodfella 12/2
Tease Pats and Broncos

Seattle

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Alatex
15* CBB Super Play Winner [12-7 CBB Best Bet Run]
Cal

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball

5-Unit Play. #703. Take Over 198 Orlando Magic vs. LA Lakers (Sunday @ 9:35pm est).

This is going to be a fun game to watch. Both of these teams will run up and down the floor because that is what the Lakers force you to do when you play them. When the Lakers faced the Nuggets the pace was rampant with even Dwight Howard hitting a 3 pointer. The final score was 122-103 as 225 points were scored resembling the old Phoenix Suns offense of old. Combine that with the Magic possibly not playing with Nelson it allows for a team to come together when a star player is out offensively. Other players step up and typically a team covers (such as the Cavs covering against the Hawks the 1st game without Irving and beating them Outright). Nelson has been out for a few games but this is a headline game against the Lakers on Sunday Night with the nation watching. Plus, the Lakers have revenge from last year's loss to the Magic. And, with the Magic getting up to play their former center piece, they will undoubtedly show up as a double-digit dog that could be very active and consequently send this game over the posted total. With all the talk about Howard, I think the Magic will show up with a strong effort today and would not be a bit surprised to see this game over the posted total. I'd rather prefer a side but I think this game is going to be closer than most people realize and the safer play probably is the Over here.

[DaKid]

any late big al out there?