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Gaming Today’s Consensus Picks December 18, 2012 3:01 AM by GT Staff
NBA Basketball
Toronto Raptors/Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 188½
Minnesota Timberwolves +9
Minnesota Timberwolves/Miami Heat OVER 188
Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 187
Denver Nuggets -2½
New Orleans Hornets/Golden State Warriors OVER 193½
Charlotte Bobcats/Los Angeles Lakers OVER 208
NCAA Basketball
Richmond +15½
Miami Florida -4
NC State -7
NCAA Basketball Play of the Day December 18, 2012 3:01 AM by GT Staff
Richmond +15½ at Kansas at 4 p.m. PT ESPN2
The Jayhawks by far the better team here but have been having their problems covering the high point spreads at home going just 4-5 ATS and you can always depend on the Spiders to give a 100 percent effort, especially being on this big venue.
RICHMOND +15½
2 for Tuesday by Richard Saber
1) Richmond +15½ at Kansas (NCAA bkb)
The Spiders hit the road for a big TV game and should get the cover. The Jayhawks have gone just 4-5 in Lawrence so far this season; most unusual. RICHMOND.
2) Stanford +6½ at NC State (NCAA bkb)
In the second half of the ESPN double dip, the host Wolfpack from the ACC should have enough offense to overcome Stanford and its deliberate, patient style. NC STATE.
Richard Saber (last week ATS: 1-1; 2012 record: 52-40-6). Records are their #'s NOT MINE
2 for Tuesday by Mark Mayer
1) Winthrop +30 at Ohio State (NCAA bkb)
It’s been cupcake city for Ohio State of late as they await big showdown in Columbus against Kansas. Winthrop did knock off Ohio U on the road 50-49. Give this dog a shot. WINTHROP.
2) Jacksonville St. +6 at Nebraska (NCAA bkb)
The Cornhuskers were blown out by Creighton and Oregon, but they just can’t be this bad. Nebraska does own wins over USC and Wake Forest. That’s good enough to lay the 6. NEBRASKA.
Mark Mayer (Last week ATS: 0-2; 2012 record: 52-45-3). Records are their #'s NOT mine
Ryan’s CBB 25* Top Rated Upset Alert Titan; 73% RU
Old Dominion at College of Charleston Dec 18 2012 7:30PM
25* graded play on Old Dominion as they take on College of Charleston set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ODU will lose this game by seven or fewer points and does possess and opportunity to win the game. Given these projections I like playing a combination bet using a 21* amount on the line and a 4* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 103-58 mark since 1997. Play on road teams as a dog or pick and is a poor offensive team scoring between 63 and 67 PPG and is now facing a good defensive team allowing between 63 and 67 PPG and after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games. COC is not an aggressive type of team and rank 50th in the nation in fewest fouls drawn at 15.6 per game. ODU is a solid 7-0 ATS when facing teams who are called for 17 or less fouls per game over the last 3 seasons. ODU has a huge advantage on the offensive boards as they are more athletic and quicker to the ball than COC. ODU ranks 10th in the nation averaging 14.8 offensive boards per game. Rebounding will be a significant part in ODU attaining a possible upset win.
Prediction: Old Dominion
BIG AL's 122-72 NCAA BASKETBALL ROADKILL WINNER!
Jacksonville State at Nebraska Dec 18 2012 9:00PM
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Jacksonville St. In their last two games, the 'Huskers were drilled by Creighton, 64-42 and Oregon, 60-38. Those back to back 22-point setbacks dropped Nebraska to 6-3 on the season. But I look for Nebraska to get back on the winning track tonight, at home, vs. Jacksonville St, which won at Presbyterian on Saturday. One of the things I like to do is play on teams off low-scoring blowout losses. Indeed, since 1990, teams off an 18-point (or worse) SU/ATS loss, in which they scored less than 40 points, are a super 92-57 ATS vs. foes off a SU win. Also, Nebraska is a solid 30-15 ATS at home off back to back losses over the past 15 seasons. Take the Cornhuskers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Prediction: Nebraska
Bet Type: SPREAD
Larry's 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner (7-0 CBB run)
Denver at Wyoming Dec 18 2012 9:00PM
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Wyoming at 9:00 ET.
There are eight Division I schools still unbeaten but only ONE of the eight remains unranked. Standing alone in that category are the Wyoming Cowboys, who continue to ‘fly under the radar’ despite a 10-0 mark to begin the 2012-13 campaign. The Cowboys look to make in 11 wins in a row tonight, as they welcome the Denver Pioneers to Arena Auditorium in Laramie for a non-conference showdown. The Cowboys are not deep with a trio of seniors leading the way. Former USC transfer, the 6-7 Washington, has established himself as the team’s best player, leading the team in scoring (15.2) and rebounding (8.6). The senior guard duo Martinez (13.5) and Gilmore (13.1) has been steady as she goes and 6-8 sophomore Larry Nance, Jr, is having a very good second season (10.6-7.4). Sophomore guard Grabau (5.6) and freshman guard Adams (5.5) are the “best of the rest.” Wyoming’s 10-0, including 7-0 at home, where the Cowboys are outscoring opponents, 70.0-57.8 PPG. Denver ‘limps’ in just 3-5 (1-5 ATS), including 0-3 SU and ATS on the road, where the Pioneers have averaged a meager 55.3 PPG. The team features a quartet of 6-5 or 6-6 players at its core and very little else. That group includes O’Neale (15.4-5.8), Udofia (12.0-5.5-3.9), Hallam (9.8-4.4) and Olson (9.1). Wyoming hasn’t faced the toughest of schedules but Denver surely doesn’t fit in the “quality opponent” category, either. Larry Shyatt first arrived in Wyoming for the 1997-98 season, leading the Cowboys to a 19-9 record and an NIT appearance. However, he left to take the Clemson job, where he was a big flop, going 70-84 ion five seasons. He was part of Florida’s staff after that, until returning to Laramie for last season. He’s credited with changing the culture of the program last year, featuring a suffocating defense and running a deliberate offense. it resulted in a 21-12 season and a CBI berth. The defense is holding opponents to just 55.3 PPG (ranks 10th) on 38.0 percent shooting from the floor and Wyoming has been doing just about everything right on both ends of the floor. I can’t think of any reason to buck the red-hot Cowboys in this one, who have beaten better opponents than Denver in their 10-0 start. The price seems ‘cheap’ and I’m laying it!
Good luck...Larry
Prediction: Wyoming
Bet Type: SPREAD
Larry's Las Vegas Insider (7-0 CBB run)
SMU at Utah Dec 18 2012 9:00PM
My 8* Las Vegas insider is on Utah at 9:00 ET.
Utah has been on a break since losing to in-state rival BYU in Provo, 61-58, back on Dec 8. The loss snapped a brief two-game win streak for the Utes, who will take their 6-3 record into tonight’s non-conference home game with 8-2 SMU. Despite not being league rivals, this marks the second meeting of the young season between the Utes and Mustangs with SMU winning 62-55 at home back on Nov 28. Kudos to Hall of Fame head coach Larry Brown who has the Mustangs off to a fast start but I like Utah to reverse last month’s loss in Dallas. The Utes almost HAVE to benefit from a “friendlier whistle” at the Huntsmen Center, after Utah was outscored from the free throw line in that first meeting, 18-2 (Utah attempted just three FTs to SMU’s 18). The 6-6 Jones (15.6-8.4) plus guards Russell (14.3-3.9) and Manuel (13.1-4.5) give SMU a formidable trio but Utah’s DuBois (14.5) and 6-6 freshman Loveridge (12.3-7.2) have proven to be a solid duo. I also like Utah’s size inside, behind the 7-0 Bachynski (8.4-7.8) and the 6-10 Washington (8.6-4.3). SMU’s last outing (12/15) was a 72-50 loss at Rhode Island (Rams are just 3-7) and Larry Brown’s team falls here to the revenge-minded Utes.
Good luck...Larry
Prediction: Utah
Team Del Genio CBB Odds Mismatch (14-6-1 L5 Days!)
Western Kentucky at Virginia Commonwealth Dec 18 2012 7:00PM
Play on VCU at 7:00 ET. Please note the time change for this particular matchup. Tipoff is now 7 ET. Also note that despite WKU coming in w/ the slightly better record, VCU is the heavy favorite here and for good reason. The Rams just got done beating fmr HC Anthony Grant & Alabama Saturday, 73-54 as 6.5-point favorites, for their fourth consecutive DD win since dropping BB games on a neutral floor to Duke and Missouri, two teams that are ranked in the Top 15 (Duke is #1!). In fact, all seven of Virginia Commonwealth's victories this season have come by double digits. The three losses have come by a combined 14 points and that margin would be even smaller if not for a nine-point loss to Duke. Tonight's opponent is not near the class of the three teams VCU lost to (all ranked) as the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky have yet to really step up significantly in class. They lost at Murray State Sunday as nine-point dog, 75-70, marking the third time in four tries so far this season that they've lost SU when priced as an underdog. With their biggest loss though only coming by eight points, this line might seem a bit curious. But why ask why? In actuality, this is a terrible matchup for WKU as anything that can do, VCU can do better. The Hilltoppers come in shooting only 26.5% from three-point range and 62.8% from the free throw line. They have gotten off to some slow starts previously on the road & also turn the ball over a bit too much, though they were good in that department vs. Murray State. But VCU is a different animal, with almost 11 steals/game. These teams met twice in a four-day span LY w/ the Rams taking both meetings, including the second by 23 pts. WKU has 22 TO's. VCU is our 8* CBB Odds Mismatch.
Prediction: Virginia Commonwealth
Bet Type: SPREAD
Team Del Genio 10* West Coast WIPEOUT (14-6-1 Run)
Louisiana State at Cal-Irvine Dec 18 2012 10:00PM
Play on Cal Irvine at 10:00 ET. This is yet another long and dangerous trip out West for a LSU team that just lost its first game of the year, at Boise State, Friday. The Tigers have yet to cover any of their three lined games in what has been a very light schedule to date, so you can basically throw their record out right away. Not only did they lose at Boise State, they fell by 19. Not a good sign here, even if laying just a minimal number, which by the way immediately had us taking notice. Cal Irvine comes in at only 5-6, but none of those losses have come at home. In fact, while LSU has been busy doing nothing, Cal Irvine has taken its act all over the country. LSU hasn't even played in any kind of tournament. Before Boise State, it was nothing but cupcakes at home. The best team they played was Seton Hall, who isn't all that good. Irvine has already played the likes of UCLA (lost by just 1) and UNLV (OK, got crushed). And the Anteaters are coming off a nice outright win over the weekend at Fresno State, winning 58-51 as 5.5-point dogs. They held the Bulldogs to 25.5% shooting - for the game! They are now holding foes to just 35% shooting for the year, which is outstanding. LSU was outrebounded 44-27 by Boise State (ouch!) and turned the ball over 20 times. Of their two best rebounders, one is only 6'5" 195lbs, the other only plays 22 minutes. As a team, the Tigers are hitting an awful 57% from the charity stripe. First year HC Johnny Jones never impressed us at North Texas and we weren't fooled at all by that 6-0 start. This is a revenge spot for the home team, who lost in Baton Rouge last year, but easily covered as 15-point dogs. UC Irvine is our 10* West Coast WIPEOUT.
Prediction: Cal-Irvine
Bet Type: SPREAD
Fargo's 10* CBB BIG BITE BEATDOWN (65% LIFETIME!)
UC Santa Barbara at California Dec 18 2012 11:00PM
After starting the season 6-0, California has lost three straight games, the last two coming at home. Those games were against nationally ranked UNLV and Creighton however and throw in a loss at Wisconsin and it shows the three-game skid is not overly surprising. The last loss against the Bluejays was frustrating as the Bears dominated the boards, especially on the offensive end, while committing only eight turnovers however but they could not get the shots to fall. Leading scorer Allen Crabbe was just 6-26 from the floor including 0-8 from long range where he came in shooting over 45 percent from behind the arc so we will see a big bounceback game from him. Tonight California takes a big step down in class as Santa Barbara is off to a 4-5 start and that record is even skewed due to wins over two non-Division I opponents. The Gauchos are coming off a 20-win season from last year but don't expect a repeat of that as they are in rebuilding mode following the loss of three players that averaged a combined 44.7 ppg last year. To no surprise, scoring has been hard to come by as Santa Barbara is averaging just 63 ppg on 41.3 percent shooting in seven Division I games. The Gauchos are getting killed on the boards as well while putting up a poor 0.87 assist/turnover ratio. All five of their losses this season have been by at least 14 points and have come by an average of 20 ppg. California is 25-12 ATS in its last 37 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games while the Gauchos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Blowout time tonight. 10* (546) California Golden Bears
Prediction: California
Bet Type: SPREAD
Sam Martin's 20* CBB
Michigan State at Bowling Green Dec 18 2012 7:00PM
20* Play on Michigan State. We're not exactly why this pointspread is so low - perhaps because the Spartans did not look good in their last road game (an eight-point loss at Miami FL) or possibly because Bowling Green has some pretty good defensive numbers (allowing 52 points per game at home), but neither excuse is really valid here. We'll lay the points with Michigan State and look for the Spartans to win this game in an absolute blowout.
This is easily Bowling Green's toughest opponent by far, as their previously toughest foe on their schedule was nearly a month ago when the Falcons were a 7-point road underdog at Robert Morris (BG lost that game by 11 points). They are well over their heads in this matchup and we give the Spartans monster advantages on both ends of the court.
For starters, Bowling Green is not a very good offensive club overall and come into tonight with no momentum after shooting under 40% from the floor and scoring less than 60 points in three straight. Even worse, BG was listed as a pick 'em once and as the favorite twice in all three of those games - also played on their home floor. And now they go up against a MSU defense that only allows 56 points per game on 36% shooting. And while Bowling Green doesn't give up many points - that is mainly because of the slow pace they prefer to play. Michigan State prefers a more up-tempo game style, and they are talented enough to push that game tempo and control the flow of the game. Spartans have scored 84, 76, 73, and 92 points in their last four games, and are more than capable of blowing out an inferior BG opponent tonight! 20* Play on Michigan State.
Prediction: Michigan State
Bet Type: SPREAD
SCOTT SPREITZER'S CBB KNOCKOUT G.O.M.! *34-19 Run!
Stanford at N.C. State Dec 18 2012 9:00PM
I'm laying the points with NC State on Tuesday night as the Wolfpack attempt to exact a little revenge. The Pack lost 76-72 at Maples Pavilion last season. NC State actually led by as many as 12 points in the second half and led by 7 points with just over seven minutes to go in the game. But two Wolfpack players fouled out of the contest, including Scott Woods, who was the Pack's best shooter at the time. Two more players were called for four personal fouls, and C.J. Miles left the game during the second half with a thigh injury after scoring 14 first half points. Numerous fouls and the injury to Miles hamstrung the Pack and they didn't make a single FG over the final 7:08 of the game. It should be noted the Wolfpack were outscored 29-13 at the FT line. Stanford was afforded 34 chances to just 20 for NC State. But I expect NC State to finish the job this season. The Pack are one of the best offensive teams in the nation, averaging 78.4 ppg. They're #1 in the NCAA in FG percentage, "canning" 52.7% of their attempts - and rank 28th from area code three. Stanford has truly struggled in step-up games this season, losing at home to Belmont and in the Bahamas to Missouri and Minnesota. The Cardinal made just 60 of 173 (34.7%) of their shots in the three losses, including a horrible, 14 of 64 (21.9%) of their 3-point attempts. The Cardinal are 334th in the nation in 3-point shooting, yet 31.2% of their shots come from beyond the arc. They make an average of just 4.7 treys per game, while attempting 18.1. At the same time, the hot-shooting Wolfpack have a much better ratio with just 23% of their shots coming from beyond the arc. NC State puts four players in double-figures in scoring, averaging between 11.7 and 14.6 ppg. Two more players average over 9 ppg. Tough matchups for Stanford. NC State enters on a 12-3-1 ATS run overall, and they're 11-2 ATS off a SU win. I'm laying the points with NC State on Tuesday. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Prediction: N.C. State
Bet Type: SPREAD
Sam Martin's 20* CBB
Miami (FL) at Central Florida Dec 18 2012 8:00PM
20* Play on Miami FL. Not enough respect given to Miami FL by the linesmakers tonight (or, perhaps too much respect given to Central Florida), and we'll jump all over this bad line and back the Hurricanes with full confidence. After an 87-79 season-opening win, the Hurricanes have seemed to get better each time they have taken the court - especially on the defensive end - and enter this game with huge momentum with a five-game winning streak (4-0 ATS run) with big wins against both Michigan State and at UMass. They won't have to win by much to cover this small number, but we look for a comfortable win here nonetheless against a UCF squad that is rather untested save for a 13-point loss against Florida.
That loss against the Gators was one of just four lined games for UCF, and we don't think their offense will be anywhere near as good as they have been the rest of the season against much weaker foes. Miami has held five straight opponents to under 41% shooting from the floor, and while they don't give up many points per game (six straight opponents held to 63 points or less), they are still able to put up decent offensive statistics (shot 48% or better in all but one game this season). Home court advantage doesn't scare us as Central Florida's lone home contest in a lined game came as a three-point favorite against Middle Tennessee State - a game UCF lost outright by 14 points. Miami is the much better team and it shows on the scoreboard after 40 minutes! 20* Play on Miami FL.
Prediction: Miami (FL)
Bet Type: SPREAD
Burns PERSONAL FAVORITE (OFF 3-0 BB SWEEP, 8-1 L9)
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers Dec 18 2012 7:05PM
I'm playing on CLEVELAND. The Raptors have earned a couple of wins recently and have actually covered the spread in three straight. Outworking teams can do that. Its important not to confuse hard work with talent though. This is still a lower tier team that is missing arguably its two most talented players. A closer look at the recent Toronto wins shows that they were both at the Air Canada Centre. They were also both against teams that were in difficult scheduling situations. I played on the Raptors in the first win, partly as they were catching the Mavericks in a difficult situation. In hindsight, I probably should have also taken them in Sunday's win over Houston, given that Jeremy Lin and co. were playing at MSG the following night. Either way, the Raptors aren't at home any longer. They're 1-14 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 104.2 to 92.6. This time, I don't expect the Raptors, 11-18-2 ATS (7-24 SU) the last 31 times they were off an "upset win," to outwork and/or be more focused than their opponent. This time, the Raptors will be facing a Cleveland team which is desperate to snap a losing skid and knows that, on paper, this is their most winnable game the rest of 2012. (A look at their schedule tells me that they won't be favored by this much again anytime in December.) The Cavs, who now have their star (Irving) back, lost their last game here. However, they beat the Lakers by six here in their previous home game. So, this is a team capable of defending its home floor. They're 1-0 ATS as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range this season (10 point win vs. Wizards) and I look for them to improve on those stats tonight. *9 Personal Favorite
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
Bet Type: SPREAD
Ryan’s 25* TOP RATED NBA Titan; 71% streak
Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets Dec 18 2012 7:35PM
25* graded play on the Brooklyn Nets as they take on the Utah Jazz set to start at 7:35 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Nets will win this game by 7 or more points. The sim shows a high probability that Utah will shoot between 43 and 47% from the field. In past games, Nets are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season. For those, who like playing the money line, you’ll love the following system posting a 37-4 mark for 90% winners and has made 30.1 units per one unit wagered. Play on home favorites when using the money line after scoring 85 points or less and now facing an opponent after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games. Nets have lost six of eight games and covered just two of eight games. Generally, when a winning record NBA team shoots below 40% from the field, they respond well in the next game. In the early part of this season, the Nets have shot below 40% just one time, and in the next game they shot 55% in their 114-101 win and cover over Cleveland November 13. Utah has a solid offense ranking ninth in the NBA averaging 99.9 PPG, but it will the Brooklyn defense, that ranks fifth in the NBA allowing 93.8 PPG, that will dominate the game. Utah defense ranks 20th in the NBA allowing 99.2 PPG and although the Nets have sputtered on offense at times this season (ranking 19th averaging 96 PPG), they will eb able to execute a high level based on the respective matchups. Take the Nets.
Prediction: Brooklyn Nets
Bet Type: SPREAD
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (off 4-1 Monday)
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets Dec 18 2012 9:05PM
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET.
I went against the Spurs last night (at OKC) as part of my Superstar Triple Play and will do so again here, at Denver. I mentioned last night that the Spurs feed off their depth but injuries have taken some of the wind out of their sails. Jackson did return last night (after missing 14 games) but Leonard is still sidelined plus Ginobili is a question mark for tonight. He sat out last night with a bruised left quadriceps suffered in Saturday's 103-88 victory over Boston. and just may miss again, here. Parker (19.2-7.5 APG) and Duncan (17.3-10.3) are being counted on heavily in recent weeks and both sat out the fourth quarter Monday, even after San Antonio trimmed an 18-point deficit in half with less than six minutes left. The Spurs opened the season 11-2 on the road but last night’s loss at OKC makes it THREE in a row, away from home. The Nuggets come into this game just 13-12 but will be playing just their EIGHTH home game of the season tonight (no team has played fewer home games). "It's the worst stretch of travel I've been associated with," coach George Karl said after Denver shot 54.1 percent from the field in Sunday's 122-97 rout at Sacramento. However, some of the Nuggets are actually embracing this hectic schedule as a stretch of 15 of 18 at home begins on New Year's Day. The Spurs will face a very versatile and deep Denver team which features SIX, double-digit scorers. PG Lawson (14.6-7.0 APG), do-everything guard Iqoudala (13.8-5.4-4.1), Brewer (11.5) and Miller (8.8-5.2 APG) take care of the perimeter. SF Gallinari (15.6-5.7) leads in scoring with Faried (12.0-10.0), McGee (11.1-5.3) and Koufos (7.0-6.0) working hard inside. The Nuggets have rarely been at home this year but are 6-1 SU, outscoring opponents 103.1-to-94.0 PPG. The Nuggets lost 126-100 loss at San Antonio on Nov 17, committing 22 turnovers in what is their most lopsided defeat of the season. I’m betting things go MUCH differently, tonight.
Good luck...Larry
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Fargo's 10* NBA TOTALS DOMINATOR (THIS FLIES OVER)
Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets Dec 18 2012 7:35PM
After going over the total in four of five games, Utah has stayed under the number in each of its last three heading into Brooklyn tonight. The Jazz have managed just 84 and 86 points in their last two games both of which resulted in double-digits losses and they need to get the offense back in gear as they were one of just nine teams in the NBA that were averaging over 100 ppg heading into those games. The task does not get any easier against Brooklyn which has a solid defense although it has not been playing its best of late. The Nets are coming off a very low scoring game against Chicago where only 165 points were scored and that is adding value here. They came into that game allowing an average of 102.6 ppg over their previous seven games, five of which saw them allow 100 or more points. The Brooklyn offense has not been very strong either but facing the Jazz can turn that around in a hurry as Utah has given up 99 or more points in 10 of its last 13 games, allowing an average of 101.2 ppg over that stretch. The Nets have gone under in eight of 10 games on the road but are 8-5 to the over at home including four of their last five at the Barclays Center. Additionally, Brooklyn is 18-8 to the over in its last 26 home games following a loss while the Jazz are 29-15 to the over in their last 44 road games with a total between 190 and 199.5 points. 10* Over (505) Utah Jazz/(506) Brooklyn Nets
Prediction: over
Bet Type: TOTAL
Fargo's NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR (MASSIVE BLOWOUT)
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks Dec 18 2012 8:05PM
After four straight wins, Milwaukee suffered a big loss on Saturday against the Clippers as the Bucks were pounded by 26 points. The game was done by halftime as Los Angeles built a huge lead and was up by as many as 29 points. Milwaukee was outscored 66-28 in the paint but should be in much better shape tonight. The Bucks have a short two-game roadtrip on deck at Memphis and at Boston which makes this game a big one in terms of staying near the top of the Central Division where they are currently just a half-game back. Indiana is also only a half-game behind the Bulls in the division following a three-game winning streak, all of which came by double-digits. The opposition was anything but strong though as two of those wins came against Detroit and Cleveland while the other was against the .500 Sixers. The Pacers have been playing a lot better after a slow start to the season as their defense has led the way. Overall ,they are allowing just 90.4 ppg which is tied for second lowest in the league but the offense is still struggling pretty bad. Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS this season following a loss while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit win while going back further is only 16-32 ATS in its last 48 road games following consecutive double digit victories. Milwaukee won the first meeting this season at home last month and was favored by 4.5 points so we are getting a very favorable line this time around. 9* (512) Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks
Bet Type: SPREAD
Sam Martin's 20* NBA BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH (19-7)!!
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards Dec 18 2012 7:05PM
20* Play on Atlanta. Huge bounce-back spot for Atlanta tonight, who had won five of six prior to a blowout loss against Golden State their last time out, and we'll back the Hawks to come back with a big win tonight against an overmatched Washington team. Atlanta shot a season-low 37% in that defeat, but the last two times the Hawks shot 40% or less from the field, they bounced back with good offensive showings, scoring 101 and 111 points in their next games. Atlanta also has done well coming off of losses, going 4-0 both straight up and ATS in their last four chances.
While we expect Atlanta to come back with a strong offensive effort here, the same can't be said for Washington, who is scoring just 89 points per game on the season and come in shellshocked after suffering a 30-point loss against the Heat in their last game. The Wizards finished with 72 points on 38% shooting - the third time in their last four games Washington has failed to shoot at least 40% from the field. Atlanta is a decent road team going 6-3 SU so far, and for whatever reason they are better defensively away from home, allowing just 90 points per game. And finally, Atlanta has history on their side as they have won 17 of the last 18 games in this series outright. That type of dominance breeds lack of confidence for losing teams such as the Wizards, and with their offensive struggles we look for the Hawks to bounce back with a dominating effort tonight! 20* Play on Atlanta.
BEN BURNS
December 18, 2012 - 7:00 PM NBA Toronto vs. Cleveland Burns' PERSONAL FAVORITE! ~ LIMITED TIME OFFER! (OFF 3-0 BKB SWEEP, 8-1 L9 NBA) Pinnacle @ -4.5 -110 Cleveland
December 18, 2012 - 11:00 PM NCAAB UC Santa Barbara vs. California *BLOWOUT ALERT* Burns' *10 Fan Appreciation PERSONAL FAVORITE! ~ OFF SWEEP Pinnacle @ -14 -106 California
Losers of six of eight in December, the Brooklyn Nets (13-10) look to get back on track as they host the Utah Jazz (13-12) tonight at the Barclays Center. Good news for Jazz fans- the Nets have defeated the Jazz just once in the last four years. Utah may be a poor road team, but Brooklyn is just 1-4 this month on the road. Could the timing be right for another Utah road victory?
AccuScore’s computer has Brooklyn as 66.4 percent favorites. After 10,000 simulations, the average score 102-97. The home team has a 34.8 percent chance at getting a big win (10 points or more). The spread was set at -5 for Brooklyn and they have a 50.8 percent chance at covering that. The total is set 194 and there is a 58.7 percent chance of going over that.
Utah is coming off a 99-86 loss to Memphis. Al Jefferson led the way with 21 points and eight rebounds, while Paul Millsap added just 12 points in the loss. Utah was up 54-44 at halftime, but got outscored 28-10 in the third quarter. Memphis also outscored Utah 50-38 in the paint. Al Jefferson has been averaging just 15.1 ppg on the road, while putting up 20.7 ppg at home.
The Nets are coming off a tough 83-82 loss to the Chicago Bulls. They beat Detroit in a double overtime game the night before that. Against Chicago, the Nets shot 38.7 percent and committed 18 turnovers. Brook Lopez had 18 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks against Chicago.
The last time these two teams met (March), the Nets lost 105-84 to the Jazz in New Jersey. Deron Williams had 17 points and 11 assists against his former team.
On the road, Utah gives up 103 points to the opposition. Add this to the projection that Utah will turn the ball over 3 more times than Brooklyn and you’ve got a recipe for a let-down. Brooklyn is also expected to grab a couple more offensive rebounds than Utah which just leads to extra possessions. Looking at the projected stats, I’d be worried that Joe Johnson has a huge game. He’s projected to shoot the ball 18 times, including 5 threes. Utah has to be careful that he doesn’t get it going early; he had 16 against the Bulls, but 28 against Detroit and 23 against Toronto.
The Nets have lost six of the past seven games vs the Jazz. In those matchups, Utah has averaged 104.6 ppg on 49.4 percent shooting. A wise man once said, "only a fool, on opinion, discounts repeated history." Brooklyn hasn’t been playing well at home and I think they’re desperate for a win. Just like taking Utah at home is the safe bet, picking against them on the road is too. Maybe I’m just a fool, but I’ll take the Nets by 6.
Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Tue, 12/18/12 - 7:05 PM
double-dime bet 501 ATL -6.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 502 WAS
Analysis:
NBA - 501 Atlanta Hawks @ 502 Washington Wizards
Projected Line: Atlanta by 12 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This will be the third game of the season between these two team, with the first two games being played at Atlanta. On the most recent game, Atlanta's guards were able to penetrate into the basket with ease and that's why they shot 19-26 FG at the end. The Hawks grabbed 60% of the rebounds and the game only got closer at the end, thanks to some problems on the perimeter shooting and some relax after leading the game by 18 points in the third quarter.
Unlike the past two games against the Wizards, where Atlanta was coming from nice wins prior to facing Washington and so, without great focus, this time Atlanta is coming from their worst loss of the season so far against the Warriors at home, therefore we have the Hawks in here on a bounce back spot. Atlanta quickly fell behind Golden State in the score and all they did to try to recover was settling for long-range jump shots.
“That is not acceptable, particularly when we are struggling and we need baskets,” Larry Drew said. “There was a lot of basketball to be played, particularly in the third quarter. You’ve got to make things happen in the paint. You can’t just settle for jump shots and look for the home run. You have to learn how to chip away.”
Therefore, I expect Atlanta's gameplan to be focused on pounding Washington down low. That should be an easy task for the Hawks, as in the first two games against the Wizards, Atlanta shot 20-29 FG and 19-26 FG at the rim! Washington has the second worst rim defense in the league by allowing 68.4% FG at this area, so the Hawks should be able to have a great offensive performance tonight. Washington has been playing without their starting PG A.J. Price and with Jordan Crawford on the PG position, turnovers can easily become a problem for the Wizards' offense. Washington had 19 and 21 turnovers on their last two games and Atlanta is one of the teams that forces more turnovers to their opponents.
With Nene Hilario questionable for tonight, Washington's offense should struggle. The Wizards are very dependent from the efficiency of their post up plays with Kevin Seraphin and Nene Hilario, but with Nene banged up, Washington are on a poor offensive spot for tonight. Washington is lacking a pure PG right now and the Wizards are prone to some offensive periods, where there is no organization and with all their shots being contested jumpers. On their last game against Miami, the Wizards shot just 13 times at the rim! With the versatility of the Hawks' defense, these jumpers will be contested and the Wizards will struggle tonight.
The Wizards covered the spread on the first two games against Atlanta, but now with the Hawks on a bounce back spot, I believe Atlanta is going to crush Washington and get a blowout win tonight. That's why I'll be taking Atlanta in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501 Atlanta Hawks (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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