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Goodfella
Duke +7.5 -
Big Al
5* Bowling Green
3* Duke, UCLAComment
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Military Bowl (Washington DC)
MAC somehow got seven bowl bids; first two lost 41-15/38-17, as they are worst D-I league in country. San Jose State comes cross country for first bowl game in six years with interim coach after MacIntyre bolted for Colorado; rain, wind expected, temps in mid-40's. Spartans won last two bowls, are 6-2 as favorites this year- they beat BYU, La Tech, lost by only 3 at Stanford. Bowling Green is in first bowl since '09, a 43-42 loss to Idaho; they've allowed average of 39.8 ppg in last five bowls, but won six of last seven games overall after 1-3 start (lost at Florida and Va Tech); they are 2-2 as underdogs this year, just 7-15 on FGs. San Jose's PK is 15-15 on FGs. WAC non-conference favorites are 6-7 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 18-16. Favorites covered three of previous four in this bowl, with average total in bowl history, 63.3.
Belk Bowl (Charlotte)
Duke (+10) upset North Carolina October 20 to go 6-2, became eligible to for a bowl, but then lost its last four games, allowing average of 49.5 ppg to limp into its first bowl in 18 years, when they lost 34-20 at the old Hall of Fame Bowl to Wisconsin. Blue Devils' last bowl win was in 1960 in the Cotton Bowl, over Alabama. Cincinnati is in sixth bowl in last seven years (3-2 in last five); they're 9-3, but other than upset win over a subpar Va Tech team, no Cincy wins stand out- they covered four of last five games as a favorite. Bearcats lost coach Jones to Tennessee, will have 4th coach in seven years in '13. Duke is 2-6 vs spread as a dog; favorites are 9-2 vs spread in their games this season. ACC teams are 6-3 in this bowl, 2-1 vs spread when dog; favorites are 5-4 overall in this bowl. Not sure Cincinnati is thrilled to be here, after playing in higher profile bowl games. Duke is definitely happy to be playing anywhere on December 27. Big East faves are 8-8 vs spread, 2-6 on road; ACC non-conference underdogs are 3-11 this season.
Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
UCLA coach Mora, former NFL mentor, is in first bowl; his Bruins are 1-3 in bowls last six years, losing to Illinois in San Francisco LY- they'll be more excited to be playing here, fairly close to home, in much better weather. UCLA upset rival USC to get to 9-2, then lost on consecutive weekends to Stanford; they scored 24 or less points in all four losses, up to Baylor to keep them there, but Bears scored 50+ points in two of its five losses this year, thats how bad their defense is; Baylor is playing in third straight bowl after going bowlless for previous 15 years; they beat Washington 67-56 LY, after losing 38-14 to Illinois two years ago. Big X teams are 13-9 vs spread in non-conference games this season; Pac-12 teams are 11-16. Losing side scored 0-7-10 points in last three Holiday Bowls, which used to be famous for wild, high-scoring games; last six years, this game was decided by 11+ points, with Big X/Pac-12 teams alternating wins last seven years.Comment
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Military Bowl: What bettors need to know
San Jose State vs. Bowling Green (7.5, 44)
MILITARY BOWL STORYLINES
1. Bowling Green has allowed an average of 15.8 points and ranks seventh in the nation in total defense (289.7), while San Jose State’s offense has been productive, averaging 35.2 points and 327.5 yards passing.
2. The two teams combined for three victories in 2010 and both finished 5-7 in 2011. San Jose State won its last bowl in 2006 (New Mexico) and is 5-3 overall. Bowling Green last won in 2004 (GMAC) and is 4-5.
3. Both offensive lines will get quite a challenge. San Jose State is fifth in the nation with 40 sacks and Bowling Green ninth with 37, led by defensive tackle Chris Jones (12.5).
TV: 3 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: San Jose State -7.5, O/U 44
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies at RFK Stadium. Winds will gust out of the WNW at 20 mph.
CONSENSUS: Nearly 57 percent of Covers Consensus players like San Jose State to cover.
TRENDS:
* Spartans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Falcons’ last seven games following a win.
* Over is 4-1 in Spartans’ last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
ABOUT SAN JOSE STATE (10-2, 5-1 WAC): The Spartans can reach the 11-victory mark for the first time since 1939 without coach Mike MacIntyre, who accepted the job at Colorado on Dec. 10. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer, the interim coach, takes over a team that has averaged just over 40 points in six straight wins. Quarterback David Fales has led the lethal offense, completing 72.1 percent of his passes and throwing for 31 scores with only nine interceptions. Noel Grigsby has been the top target, scoring nine times while compiling 1,173 yards on 73 receptions. Chandler Jones has a team-high 10 touchdown receptions. De’Leon Eskridge has led the ground attack with 992 yards and 10 touchdowns. Safety Bene Benwikere is the player to watch on defense with seven interceptions and 62 tackles.
ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (8-4, 6-2 MAC): The Falcons have leaned on their defense to win seven of its last eight games after losing to bowl teams Florida, Toledo and Virginia Tech early on. Jones, the MAC Defensive Player of the Year, leads the way while linebacker Gabe Martin and defensive back BooBoo Gates also stand out. Bowling Green has held opponents to an average of 173 yards through the air and a 28 percent conversion rate on third down. The Falcons have averaged 28.5 points the last eight games, keyed by quarterback Matt Schilz and running back Anthon Samuel. Schilz, a junior, has thrown 50 career touchdown passes and 39 interceptions - 14 and 12, respectively, this season. Samuel is 34 yards from becoming the eighth Bowling Green player to rush for 1,000 yards.Comment
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Belk Bowl: What bettors need to know
Cincinnati vs. Duke (9.5, 60.5)
BELK BOWL STORYLINES
1. Making its first bowl appearance in 17 years, Duke does not have to make a long trip as the Blue Devils meet Cincinnati in Charlotte, N.C., less than three hours from their campus in Durham. Led by ACC Coach of the Year David Cutcliffe and despite the excitement of heading to its first bowl game since 1995, Duke is on a four-game losing streak that has seen the Blue Devils allow 49.5 points during that span.
2. For the third time since 2006, Cincinnati goes into its postseason game without the coach that led the Bearcats during the season. After winning or sharing its fourth Big East Conference championship in the past five years, Cincinnati lost third-year coach Butch Jones on Dec. 7 to Tennessee, but 36 hours later hired former Texas Tech, Auburn, and Mississippi coach Tommy Tuberville. Offensive line coach Steve Stripling will coach the Bearcats in the bowl game.
3. With constant conference realignment in the air, Cincinnati has made no secret is would like to be in the ACC, which offered a spot to Louisville earlier this month. And the Bearcats would like to make a statement in the Belk Bowl, taking on Duke from the ACC. Cincinnati is making its 14th bowl appearance and sixth in the last seven years. In September, the Bearcats rallied to beat Virginia Tech in Washington D.C., knocking the Hokies out of the Top 25.
TV: ESPN, 6:30 p.m. ET.
LINE: Cincinnati -9.5. O/U 60.5
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with clear skies at Bank of America Stadium. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.
CONSENSUS: Over 65 percent of Covers Consensus players like the Bearcats to cover.
TRENDS:
* Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Bearcats’ last six December games.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Blue Devils’ last eight games overall.
ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-3, 5-2 Big East): Senior Brendon Kay took over for the versatile, but erratic Munchie Legaux at quarterback late in the season and led the Bearcats to three wins in four games. Kay is completing almost 62 percent of his passes for 966 yards and six touchdowns with only two interceptions. Kay also rushed for 230 yards and a pair of scores. Legaux accounted for 2,051 yards of offense and 17 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions. Tight end Travis Kelce, a first team All-Big East performer is Cincinnati's top receiver with 40 catches for 599 yards and seven touchdowns. Second team All-Big East tailback George Winn was second in the league with 1,204 yards rushing. Winn had 12 touchdowns and five 100-yard games. The Bearcats average 430.8 yards and 31 points, while allowing only 13 sacks in 12 games. Cincinnati is allowing only 17.2 points, second in the Big East.
ABOUT DUKE (6-6, 3-5 ACC): The Blue Devils raced to a 6-2 start, highlighted by wins over North Carolina and Virginia before the ACC powers got them at the end of the season. Quarterback Sean Renfree has passed for 2,755 yards and 18 touchdowns while throwing only eight interceptions and Duke is the only FBS team in the nation to have three receivers catch more than 60 passes. Second team All-ACC performer Conner Vernon leads Duke with 75 receptions for 955 yards and seven touchdowns, while honorable mention all-ACC pick Jamison Crowder caught 70 for 1,025 yards and eight scores. Desmond Scott hauled in 61 receptions for 606 yards and two touchdowns. Duke averages 31.3 points and 396.6 yards total offense while allowing 35 points and 462.1 yards. Ross Martin, the honorable mention all-league kicker for the Blue Devils, is 18-for-20 in field goals, including 6-for-6 from beyond 40 yards.Comment
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Holiday Bowl: What bettors need to know
Baylor vs. UCLA (-3, 81.5)
BRIDGEPORT EDUCATION HOLIDAY BOWL STORYLINES
1. UCLA, ranked 19th, is looking for a 10-win season for the first time since 2005 as first-year coach Jim Mora has engineered an impressive turnaround. Baylor is playing in a third straight bowl game for the first time in school history and is also playing a bowl game outside the state of the Texas for the initial time.
2. The Holiday Bowl has a reputation for offensive fireworks and the Bruins and Bears should only add to the bowl’s lore. Baylor leads the nation in total offense at 578.8 yards per game and ranks fifth in scoring (44.1). UCLA is 20th in total offense (474.5) and 28th in scoring (35.1). Both teams have been very shaky defending the pass.
3. UCLA senior running back Johnathan Franklin is ninth in the nation in rushing yards per game (130.8) and is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 4,369 career yards. Baylor allows 190.8 rushing yards per game, so there will be opportunities for Franklin to conclude his career in style.
TV: 9:45 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: UCLA -3, O/U 81.5
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and clear skies at Qualcomm Stadium. Winds will blow out of the NW at 5 mph.
CONSENSUS: Just over 50 percent of Covers Consensus players believe Baylor will cover.
TRENDS:
* Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-0 in Bruins’ last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Bears’ last five neutral site games.
ABOUT BAYLOR (7-5, 4-5 Big 12): Senior quarterback Nick Florence was up to the arduous task of replacing Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III and leads the nation in total offense at 387.7 yards per game. Florence has passed for 4,121 yards and 31 touchdowns while being intercepted 13 times. He has a superb target in senior receiver Terrance Williams, who set a school-record with 1,764 receiving yards. Williams has 12 touchdowns among his 95 receptions. Sophomore running back Lache Seastrunk (874 yards) has played well down the stretch. Sophomore middle linebacker Bryce Hager has a team-leading 115 tackles, which leads the Big 12. Junior weak-side linebacker Eddie Lackey has a team-high four interceptions and returned two of them for touchdowns.
ABOUT UCLA (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12): The Bruins are coming off back-to-back losses to Stanford – the latter in the Pac-12 championship game – after winning five consecutive games. Franklin has rushed for a school-record 1,700 yards and was a runner-up for the Doak Walker Award won by Wisconsin’s Montee Ball. Redshirt freshman quarterback Brett Hundley has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,411 yards and 26 touchdowns. He has been intercepted 11 times. Junior outside linebacker Anthony Barr is a force with 20.5 tackles for loss – including 13.5 sacks – and four forced fumbles. Sophomore inside linebacker Eric Kendricks has a team-best 137 tackles while senior cornerback Sheldon Price and senior safety Andrew Abbott share the team lead with four interceptions.Comment
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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
12/27/12 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 1374-402 (.774)
ATS: 542-566 (.489)
ATS Vary Units: 1956-2148 (.477)
Over/Under: 158-149 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 203-226 (.473)
Gotham Classic
Round Robin at campus sites
CANISIUS 78, Alcorn State 59
TEMPLE 78, Detroit 69
Summit League
IUPUI 72, Fort Wayne 70
WESTERN ILLINOIS 68, Oakland 62
Sun Belt Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 72, UL Lafayette 67
TROY 72, Florida Atlantic 67
WESTERN KENTUCKY 73, Fairleigh Dickinson 62
Non-Conference
AKRON 80, Texas Southern 59
BYU 88, Northern Arizona 63
CINCINNATI 70, New Mexico 61
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 77, Morgan State 68
SAINT MARY'S 78, Rhode Island 64Comment
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Trace Adams
Highest-Rated
2000♦
Double Your Wager
College FB Winner #7 in a Row
#11 of 14 Overall ALL Sports
UCLA Bruins -3
Adams Note: As of 10:30 pm eastern time on Thursday when I release my selection, the Bruins are -3 point favorites in Vegas and offshore. If your price is -3 or -3 1/2, I want you to buy the half point down on the Uclans.Comment
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Larry Ness
Legend- UCLAComment
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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NCAA - Thursday, December 27th - Free Member Play
TOP (3 UNITS)
UCLA / BAYLOR UNDER 82 (Thursday, December 27th - 6:45pm) - HOLIDAY BOWLComment
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Football Jesus Bowl pick: Duke + the pointsComment
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Gold Sheet
MILITARY BOWL
BOWLING GREEN (8-4) vs. SAN JOSE STATE (10-2)
San Jose State 24 - Bowling Green 23—First-ever meeting between these
two mid-major schools that made similar dramatic improvement over a two-year
period. SJS (joining MWC next season), which was 1-12 in 2010, catapulted to
10-2 this season under third-year mentor Mike MacIntrye, who has bolted to
take over the reclamation project at Colorado. Spartans’ defensive coordinator
Kent Baer (staff member since 2008) is the interim head coach. BG, which
finished 2-10 in 2010, has risen to 8-4 this campaign under 4th-year mentor
Dave Clawson, who did lead his squad to the Humanitarian Bowl in his first term
in 2009 (Falcons lost 43-42 to Idaho on 2-pt. conversion with 4 ticks left ). Both
teams ended the regular season on an uptick, the Falcons winning 7 of last 8
(following expected Sept. setbacks at Florida, Toledo & Virginia Tech) and SJS
notching 6 Ws in a row.
The potent Spartan attack (34 ppg) is expertly executed by prolific juco QB
David Fales (72%, 31 TDs, 9 ints.), who immediately developed rapport with
proven WRs Noel Grigsby (73 grabs, 9 TDs) & Chandler Jones (46 catches, 10
TDs). The ground game (only 3.5 ypc) was more of an afterthought, ranking a
lowly 102nd. The Bowling Green offense (21 ppg), led by third-year starting QB
Matt Schilz (2,496 YP, 14 TDs, 12 ints.; third all-time in school history with 7,673
YP), has reliable targets in WR Shaun Joplin (39 grabs, 4 TDs),TE Alex Bayer
(34), and blossoming 6-4 RS frosh WR Chris Gallon (47, 6 TDs), who hauled in
15 catches for 278 yds. in the last two games. The Falcons’ ground game
commands respect, thanks to slashing RB Anthony Samuel (966 YR, 10 TDs).
SJS owns the more dangerous arsenal, but the defensive advantage clearly
goes to BG’s smothering stop unit (15.8 ppg, 37 sacks), anchored by hardcharging
DT Chris Jones (MAC Defensive Player of Year; 12½ sacks), and a
trio of head-hunting LBs, Gabe Martin, Dwayne Woods & Paul Swan, who
combined for 188 tackles. Falcons’ tight-covering secondary (173 ypg, 7th
nationally), spearheaded by first-team All-MAC S Jerry “BooBoo” Gates,
allowed only 9 TD passes. And while the Spartan defense (21.4 ppg), led by DE
Travis Johnson (12 sacks) & ball-hawking S Bene Benwikere (7 ints.) was
opportunistic (31 takeaways), the disciplined BG attack had only four lost
fumbles all season. Moreover, we believe the Falcons’ balanced “O” should
have sufficient success vs. the SJS stop unit, which allowed a whopping 42 ppg
vs. the quality arsenals of San Diego State, Utah State and La Tech.
So, we prefer to “take” with motivated BG (seeking first 9-win campaign
since 2004), which has performed well as a road underdog, going 12-5 in role
since 2008. And, with a strong alumni base on the East Coast and doable 500-
mile trip for Falcon nation, BG should have far greater fan support than coastto-coast
traveling SJS squad also coping with the “lost father syndrome.”
“Under” also the way to look, with Dave Clawson’s BG crew going below the
total in 15 of last 17 games!
BELK BOWL
CINCINNATI (9-3) vs. DUKE (6-6)
Cincinnati 31 - DUKE 30—Cincy finished 9-3 and in 4-way tie for first place
in the Big East. It’s the fourth time in past five years the Bearcats have captured
at least a share of the title, but L’Ville earned a spot in the Sugar Bowl by virtue
of its BCS ranking. Cincy is seeking 10 wins for the 5th time in last 6 years. But
as has been the pattern lately, Bearcat HC Butch Jones (taking over at
Tennessee) is the third consecutive coach (following Mark Dantonio & Brian
Kelly) to leave after three seasons for a higher profile job. Defensive line coach
Steve Stripling is interim coach, with Tommy Tuberville taking over. It’s a much
different deal for ascending Duke, which is “bowling” for the first time since
1994! And while the Bearcats triumphed in 4 of their last 5 games, the 6-6 Blue
Devils are limping in on the heels of 4-game losing streak, following their
bowl clinching 33-30 home upset vs. rival North Carolina way back on Oct. 20.
The Cincy offense (30 ppg) got a needed spark from the midseason QB
change from struggling Munchie Legaux to 6-4 sr. Brandon Kay (966 YP,
61.9%, 6 TDs, 2 ints.; 3-1 as starter), who is more adept on the deep ball. His
favorite target is TE Travis Kelce (40 grabs, 7 TDC), while RB George Winn (Big
East-best 1204 YR, 5.3 ypc) powers the ground assault. Cincy did lose one of
its top deep threats, WR Damon Julian (4 TDs), to season-ending ankle injury
in reg.-season finale vs. UConn.
The speedy Bearcat defense (18 ppg), spearheaded by LBs
Greg Blair & Maalik Bomar (combined 198 tackles) held its last
4 foes to a meager 11.8 ppg. But we are still reluctant to
support the Bearcats, who represent the inferior Big East conference.
The finely-tuned Duke offense (29 ppg) is led by confident
sr. QB Sean Renfree (holds or shares 14 school records), who
takes full advantage of a trio of prime-time WRs—record-breaking
Conner Vernon (ACC career leader in receptions), first-team all ACC Jamison Crowder
(70 grabs, 8 TDs) & dependable Desmond Scott (61). The Blue Devils’ flourishing pass attack
is wellequipped to trade all the way vs. the Bearcat secondary, which
faced precious few quality aerial assaults in the Big East. In fact,
Cincy lost 37-34 in OT to the league’s No. 1 passing team,
Louisville and dynamic QB Teddy Bridgewater, who is ranked
below the aforementioned Renfree.
In addition, depth-shy Duke, which wore down defensively
down the stretch, will reportedly be in much better physical
condition following the prolonged layoff. And Blue Devils’
shrewd HC David Cutlcliffe (ACC Coach of the Year) is bound
to unveil some wrinkles after recently mentioning some
position changes. Plus, Duke is absolutely thrilled to be
playing in nearby Charlotte, which is the home of 16 of its
players (29 are from the state). Blue Devils also own STs edge
with deadly K Ross Martin (18 of 20 FGs) & strong-legged P
Will Monday (44 yd. avg.). So, good bet Cincy falls to 2-8 vs.
the spread in its last 10 bowl games.
HOLIDAY BOWL
BAYLOR (7-5) vs. UCLA (9-4)
Ucla 45 - Baylor 38—First ever meeting between schools each playing for
the first time in the Holiday Bowl. UCLA’s demanding first-year HC Jim Mora
brought some swagger to his (9-4) squad, which had languished under
predecessor Rick Neuheisel, who went 21-29 in his four mostly futile seasons.
The Bruins were 9-2 before losing back-to-back games to rough and tough
Stanford in the reg.-season finale & Pac-12 Title game. Although UCLA missed
game-tying 52-yd. FG attempt in the closing minute of that Rose Bowl-deciding
27-24 loss at Palo Alto, word is Bruins have shaken it off and are excited to play
in nearby San Diego. After a choppy 4-5 start, Baylor closed on a 3-game win
streak, with impressive upset victories in Waco over No. 1 ranked Kansas State
and then-24th-ranked Oklahoma State. The Bears are competing in
postseason outside their home state for the first time since 1991!
The high-octane Baylor offense (nation-leading 578.8 ypg; 44.1 ppg) is
proficiently directed by sr. QB Nick Florence (61%, 31 TDs, 13 ints.), who
admirably filled the big shoes left by LY’s Heisman Trophy winner & TY’s prime
candidate for NFL rookie of the year, RG III. His No. 1 target is scintillating WR
Terrance Williams (95 catches for school-record 1764 yards; 12 TDs), while the
ground game picked up steam down the stretch, thanks to speedy RB Lache
Seastrunk, who had 489 YR over the last 3 games.
But we’re not convinced the Baylor offense automatically picks up where it left vs. UCLA’s
veteran, sack-happy, 3-4 defense (26 ppg; 43 sacks), spearheaded by LBs Anthony Barr (nationleading 13½ sacks; 20½ TFL) & soph Eric Kendricks (137 tackles). The seasoned Bruin secondary surprisingly allowed too many big plays, but confidence is not lacking in sr. CBs Aaron Hester & Sheldon Price, who’re out to improve their NFL stock. Two-year starting soph FS Tevin McDonald (79 tackles, 10 PBU) is solid.
On the other hand, the Bruins’ diversified spread attack (35 ppg) should continue to excel vs. the undersized, leaky Bear defense ranked 119th in total yards (513.9 ypg), 118th in pass yds. (324 ypg), and 114th in scoring (38.2 ppg), with a paltry 13 sacks. UCLA’s marvelous RS frosh dual-threat QB Brett Hundley (68.2%, 26 TDP; 365 YR & 9 TDs) & top targets WR Shaquelle Evans (53 grabs) & TE Joseph Fauria (40 receptions for 11 TDs) are well-equipped to exploit a Baylor secondary that gave up 362 YP to SMU, 656 to West Virignia (yes, 656), 381 to Iowa State, 359 to Texas Tech (OK, it was in OT) & 332 to Oklahoma State. The Bruins’ dazzling sr. RB James Franklin—the school’s all-time leading rusher—is eager to end his memorable career with an exclamation point. Also, Baylor owns a shakier kicking game with unreliable Aaron Jones (16 of 27 FGs), so we envision well-supported UCLA reaching the coveted 10-win plateau for the first time since 2005. Recommend the “over,” since the squads are a combined 17-7 “over” TYComment
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Playbook Marc Lawrence
MILITARY BOWL
RFK Stadium • Washington, DC
Bowling Green over San Jose St by 1
Like the Chippewas, the Bee Gees are another 17 returning starter bowl
dog taking 4 or more points. However, what makes these defensiveminded dogs
dangerous is the fact that they held seven of their last eight
opponents to season-low – or 2nd low – yardage in 2012. And though the
surging Spartans (4-0 SU and ATS last four) are led by QB David Fales – No. 3
in the country in passing effi ciency (170.91) – our PLAYBOOK.com database
sides with the strong stop-unit in this case as it notes: bowl teams off three
or more ATS wins are 10-33-1 ATS against teams who allow 22 or less points
on the season if the foe scored 21 or less points in its last game. And like
the scenario in the Little Caesar’s Bowl, the Falcons are another MAC squad
having the luxury of facing a team guided by a defensive coordinator as
Kent Baer takes over for the departed Mike MacIntyre, who is hoping to
stir a buzz in Colorado. That may be too much of a burden to ‘Baer’ for
the Spartans as .666 or greater MAC bowlers off a SU win are 13-4 SU and
12-4-1 ATS. And while they have come a long way in two years (won one
game in 2010), how many of their fans will actually know the way from San
Jose to Washington, D.C.? Not many – so we’ll put a ’hundred down’ as the
Bee Gees get the support, as well as the win, in this Upset Special.
BELK BOWL
Bank of America Stadium • Charlotte, NC
Cincinnati over Duke by 4
Holy canine. The farther we go with this week’s bowl card, the more it
resembles a Westminster Dog Show – both for the number of mongrel
matchups involved and our proclivity for fading favorites. Keeping with
that theme, we’ll take a good look at Duke today, a mangy mutt if there
ever was one. The Blue Devils are playing in the postseason for the fi rst time
since 1995 and a defeat here will mark their fi fth straight to close out the
2012 season – and saddle them with yet another losing season. Sounds like
a lot to overcome, especially against a UC squad where bowling has become
old hat (sixth bowl in the last seven years). But not all is peachy with the
Bearcats: head coach Butch Jones followed in Brian Kelly’s shoes when he
took the money and ran (Tennessee Vols), leaving DL coach Steve Stripling to
oversee this game (Cincinnati has since hired Texas Tech’s Tommy Tuberville
to take over in 2013). Though Jones’ departure is being downplayed, it will
clearly be a distraction leading up to today’s bout. Worse is the fact that
nearly all meaningful ATS history leans to the Blue Devils. Despite Cincy’s
familiarity with postseason play, the unfortunate truth is the Bearcats are a
paltry 2-7 ATS as bowlers since the turn of the century. In conference terms,
Big East squads are a woeful 3-14 ATS vs .750 or less ACC opponents and
just 2-8 ATS as favorites versus the ACC in bowl games. Meanwhile, ACC
bowl teams off back-to-back SUATS losses are 9-2 ATS since 1990, including
6-0 ATS off a conference loss.
Finally, Duke coach Cutcliffe owns a morethan-respectable 5-1 SUATS record
as a bowler (3-0 SUATS as a dog). Put it all together and we can overlook
the Durham Devils’ disturbing -108 net YPG effort in the 2nd half of the regular season.
With somewhat of a ‘home field’ edge in this contest
(Duke campus 144 miles from Charlotte), we won’t be surprised to see these mongrels
earn ATS Best in Show honors.
HOLIDAY BOWL
Qualcomm Stadium • San Diego, CA
Ucla over Baylor by 7
Forget about strength versus strength: here’s a bowl matchup that pits
weakness against weakness. In this case, it’s a UCLA offensive line that
allowed the most sacks of all bowlers this year – a whopping 46 – squaring
off with a Baylor pass rush that couldn’t fi nd the opposing quarterback with
a GPS (only 13 sacks registered all season). Though the Bears get a mulligan
because they own the No. 1 offense in the bowls at 570 yards per game, they
immediately knock it right back out-of-bounds with a bowl-worst defense
that gets ripped for 523 YPG. It’s pretty much a stalemate, too, comparing
recent ATS results in today’s roles. Baylor’s 6-1 ATS log off a win versus Pac-
10/12 foes is immediately offset by the fact that Big 12 bowl teams off a
win have gone just 6-10 ATS against Pac-10/12 opponents. And UCLA’s 5-1
ATS success as bowl pick or dog is negated by Jim Mora Jr’s inexperience as
1st-year coaches off a loss are 7-18 ATS when taking on a winning bowler.
Yes, the Bruins fashioned a fi ne 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS mark versus fellow bowl
teams this year but they were also outgained in three of the season’s fi nal
four games. Leave it to our powerful database to supply the tiebreaker –
UCLA stands 7-2 ATS against a Big 12 foe off a win, including 5-0 ATS as a
favorite or dog of 3 or fewer points. That little gem, coupled with the putrid
stench of Baylor’s defense, should put us on the winning side in today’s
battle of the bears. Just don’t forget to sign your scorecard…Comment
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Pointwise
CINCINNATI (9-3) vs DUKE (6-6)
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
6:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
This marks the 2nd year for this particular bowl, with the Meineke moving from
Charlotte to Houston in '11. The original Belk saw NCSt (-2) take a 31-10 lead
over Louisville in the 3rd, before holding on for a 31-24 win, despite just 65
RYs. The hosts for this one, of course, are the Blue Devils of Duke, who not
only play in their first holiday affair since 1994, but, in the process, are also
snapping the nation's longest bowl-less streak. And they did it with a stunning
come-from-behind 33-30 win over NoCaro, on a Renfree pass in the final
0:13. The Imps posted 28 FDs, 234 RYs, 276 PYs, & punted just twice in that
quality victory, which gave them a record of 6-2, with their only losses coming
at Stanford & VirginiaTech. And they also garnered a few votes in the weekly
Coaches Poll. But fame sure was fleeting, as they dropped their final 4 games,
with a 198-96 pt deficit. And they were outrushed 1,178-416 in those 4, albeit
vs the likes of FlaSt, Clemson, FlaSt, & Miami. At season's end, Duke ranked
108th, 105th, & 103rd in rushing, total & scoring "D". Renfree & little else.
The Bearcats of Cincinnati had to replace 11 starters from LY's 10-3 team, but
Jones led them to a 5-0 start, ranking 18th in the land, before a 4-3 windup.
Still their 6th bowl game over the past 7 years, including spots in the '08 & '09
Orange & Sugar. Replacing QB Collaros & RB Pead was a tall order. But
Winn is just 55 yds short of Pead, & altho the signal-calling has been a project
all season, it still provides enough yardage for an enviously balanced "O".
Departure of the aforementioned Jones hasn't helped, & note Cincy failing to
cover any of its last 3 bowl fav roles. We'll take the 7½ pts with the host here.
PROPHECY: Cincinnati 31 - DUKE 30 RATING: 6
U.C.L.A. (9-4) vs BAYLOR (7-5)
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
9:45 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
Barnburner? Shootout? Choose whichever adjective that you wish, to properly
describe the history of this particular bowl, & you will be right. A string of
sensational scoreboard lighters has been the norm, & this year will not be any
different. As a matter of fact, all previous standards may just be smashed by
the time these 2 leave the field. This is the 3rd straight bowl season for the
Bears of Baylor, after making it back-to-back seasons last year for the 1st time
since '91-'92. Replacing the brilliant Robert Griffin III is simply impossible
(4,293 PYs, 72%, 37/6, 699 RYs), but Baylor has surprised everyone, ranking
2nd, 5th, & 3rd in total, scoring, & passing "O", as compared to 2nd, 3rd, & 5th
in '11. Almost identical. As a matter of fact, a year ago, the above Baylor stats
were: 44-36 AVS; 29-24 FDs, 216-200 RYs, 356-279 PYs. Simply amazing!
QB Florence is no RG3, but try #1 in the land in total "O" (4,652 TYs): 4,121
RYs, 61%, 31/13. But, as we know, that "D" is lethal: 2nd & 12th worst in total,
scoring (5th, 12th LY). Result: breathtaking 67-56 bowl win LY, as a 9-pt chalk.
The Bruins, with their nicely balanced & 20th ranked "O", are led by QB Hundley
(3,411 yds, 68%, 26/11) & RB Franklin (1,700 yds, 6.3 ypr, 13 TDs). Their
signature were over Nebraska, ArizonaSt, Arizona, & SoCal. In those 4,
Hundley was a combined 12/1, while Franklin ran for 165 ypg. No reason that
they can't run wild vs this "D", but note that Baylor did hold KansSt to 76 RYs,
in that 52-24 upset (Wildcats' only loss): 40½ pt cover. Defensively, the Uclans
rank a so-so 74th, but the Bears would love such a slot. All that the folks could
hope for. Last team with the ball may win it, so we'll give the nod to the host.
PROPHECY: UCLA 59 - Baylor 55 RATING: 6
4* S.JOSE ST.31 - Bowling Green 17Comment
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