12-27-12

[bhn2bill]

Anyone got ATS bowl lock today??

[DaKid]

Big Al

5* Bowling Green
3* Duke, UCLA

Thank you much!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Over 44.5 San Jose/ Bowling Green

100* St Mary's -16.5

100* New Mexico +6.5

50* Over 190 Clippers/ Celtics

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS

My 10* Goin' Over Total is on Bowling Green/San Jose St Over at 3:00 ET.
San Jose State closed the 2011 season with a home win over Navy and a road win at Fresno St to finish 5-7. That’s was quite a turnaround for head coach Mike MacIntyre. He inherited a team which was 2-10 in 2009 and in his first season (2010), went only 1-12. So without a doubt, last year’s 5-7 record was quite an achievement. The Spartans dropped their 2012 season-opener against local foe Stanford by only 20-17 (as almost four-TD underdogs), but by year's end, would finish 10-2.(only other loss was 49-27 to Utah St). MacIntyre's stunning turnaround at San Jose State, allowed him to move to a more high-profile job, as he was named the coach at Colorado. Defensive coordinator Kent Baer will be the team's interim coach for this game. Dave Clawson went backwards a bit after a solid first season with Bowling Green, but the fourth-year coach now has his program on the upswing.Clawson took over at Bowling Green in 2009 and went 7-6 with a trip to the Humanitarian Bowl his first season. Campaigns of 2-10 and 5-7 followed before the Falcons went 8-4 this year, their first eight-win season since 2007. Early expected losses came against Florida and Va Tech but the Falcons would win SEVEN of their final eight, losing only to Kent St, which was 11-1 (8-0 in the MAC) before losing the MAC championship game in OT to Sugar-bowl bound Northern Illinois. Bowling Green can't match San Jose St's offensive 'weapons,' but the Falcons were able to average 28.5 PPG over their final eight games. SJSU's QB Fales has been terrific (72.1% / 31-9 ratio) and the Spartans have averaged 35.8 PPG, reaching at least 30 points eight times and 40 or more, EIGHT times. Since the team's last loss (Oct 13), the Spartans have averaged 40.7 PPG over their final six. Keeping this total "well within range" is the fact that Dave Clawson's team has gone under in 15 of its last 17 games. That changes here in an entertaining Military Bowl.just like in Clawson's first bowl trip with the Falcons, a 43-42 Humanitarian Bowl loss to Idaho in 2009.

My LEGEND Play is on UCLA at 9:45 ET,

UCLA made strides in its first season under coach Jim Mora but couldn't handle Stanford in the season's final two games, getting beat 35-17 on Nov 24 at home in the Rose Bowl and then 27-24 win in the conference championship game the following week up in Palo Alto. The Bruins played an excellent game at Stanford, only losing when freshman Ka'imi Fairbairn missed a 52-yard field-goal attempt in the closing minute. Let's NOT forget just how good this Stanford team is! Baylor wasn't sure what to expect without Heisman-winner RG3 in 2012. The Bears opened 3-0 but their AWFUL defense led the way to them dropping FOUR in a row and FIVE of their next six. The Bears hardly looked like a bowl team at 4-5 but Baylor finished on a three-game win streak which began with a 52-24 victory Nov 17 over Kansas State when KSU was ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings. Baylor followed with a 52-45 OT win at Cowboys Stadium over Texas Tech, then concluded its season with a 41-34 win over then-No. 24 Oklahoma State on Dec 1. The Bears entered the bowl season No. 1 in total offense (578.8 YPG), with excellent balance. QB Nick Florence ain't RG3 but he's pretty darn good. He's thrown for 4,121 yards with 31 TDs and just 13 INTs plus added 531 yards rushing (9 TDs). The Bears average 225.1 YPG on the ground (5.1 YPC) as two RBs contribute, Seastrunk (874 / 7.6 YPC / 6 TDs) and Martin (791 / 5.0 YPC / 12 TDs). Baylor averages 44.1 PPG (5th-most) and will likely need to come close to that average vs UCLA, as the Baylor D allows the second-most total yards (513.9 YPG) and 38.2 PPG (115th). Jim Mora, Jr replaced Rick Neuheisel (21-29 in four seasons) and led the Bruins to the Pac-12 South title, where they lost to the Cardinal. UCLA was 9-2 before those back-to-back losses to Stanford, led by QB Hundley and RB Franklin. Hundley completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,411 yards and his 26 TDs were second most in a season in school history. He also ran for 365 yards with nine TDs. Franklin set career bests this season with 1,700 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs (6.3 YPC), 32 receptions, 319 receiving yards and a pair of TD catches. UCLA can't quite match Baylor's firepower but the Bruins are averaging 35.1 PPG and while UCLA's defense allows 25.9 PPG, that's almost two TDs less than Baylor's sieve-like unit. All indications are that Bruins have shaken off their losses to the Cardinal and are excited to play in nearby San Diego. After Neuheisel left the program in a mess, few could have predicted that Mora would lead TY's team to nine wins. One more here and it's UCLA's first 10-win season since 2005. Take the Bruins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baylor Bears vs. UCLA Bruins
Point Spread - Pick

Baylor Bears (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. No. 17 UCLA Bruins (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Holiday Bowl
Date/Time: Thursday, December 27th, 2012, 9:45 p.m. EST
Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, Calif.
TV: ESPN/DirecTV 206
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: Bay pk/UCLA pk
Over/Under Total: 80.5

The 17th-ranked UCLA Bruins are the kings of Los Angeles this year for the first time in five seasons, and they can earn their first 10-win season since 2005, but they'll have to score a ton of points to do it when they take on the Baylor Bears in the Holiday Bowl in Qualcomm Stadium on December 27th on ESPN.

The Bruins won three more games this year than last year under first-year head coach Jim Mora, but still fell short of their goal when they lost to Stanford twice to close out the season, including the second time in the PAC-12 title game, 27-24, for the chance to go to the Rose Bowl. Now Mora will have to try and keep the Bruins focused and motivated for "just" the Holiday Bowl, although a shot at a 10-win campaign and the short drive down to San Diego should help give UCLA an advantage.

In order for UCLA to reach those goals though, they will have to beat the Baylor Bears and the No. 1-ranked offense in college football that piles up an average of 579 yards a game. Quarterback Nick Florence has successfully replaced Robert Griffin III, and he'll lead the high-powered Bears offense into their third straight bowl game and try and continue the three-game win streak that has gotten them into the second season.

Baylor started their win streak with a huge upset win over then-No. 1 Kansas State, 52-24, back on November 17th. With an average score of 48 points during the win streak, and fresh off of last year's record-setting performance in a win over Washington in the Alamo Bowl (won 67-56 and set record more most points in a regulation bowl game), if there's one thing the Bears can do it's score, so we all could be in store for a shootout in the Holiday Bowl this holiday season.

Oddsmakers originally opened the game with UCLA as 2-point favorites, but early and quick money on high-powered Baylor has brought the game all the way down to a pick 'em at most sportsbooks. You can still find a few offshore sportsbooks listing UCLA as slim 1-point favorites, but they are few and far between.

Any game with Baylor playing in it is going to cause some sticker shock when it comes to the over/under total, and the Holiday Bowl is no exception since the game opened at 77.5. That apparently wasn't high enough, since the total is up to 80 at some books and even as high as 80.5 (the highest total in all of the bowls) at a few books and properties in Las Vegas.

It took almost half a season for Florence to get completely in the Bears offense, but he's certainly rolling now and Baylor is as dangerous as ever these days. The senior from Garland, Texas, has hit on 61 percent of his passes, has thrown for 4,121 yards and has 31 throwing touchdowns as well as nine on the ground with his legs. For awhile his decision making was suspect, since he threw 11 of his 13 interceptions in the first seven weeks of the season, but he seems to have gained confidence of late and the Bears are amassing 353 yards a game in the air as a result (3rd in FBS).

But Baylor is not just a spread-passing attack, since they have two quality running backs in Oregon-transfer Lache Seastrunk (7.6 ypg, 6 TD) and Glasco Martin (5.0 ypc, 12 TD) that take advantage of nickel and dime defenses stretched thin to stop the pass to the tune of 226 yards a game (19th). The main weapon those defenses are trying to stop, receiver Terrance Williams (1,764 yards, 12 TD), is a beast on the outside and his 18.6 yards per catch is one of the best marks in college football.

The biggest problem for Baylor has been the fact they have to play defense … if you can claim what they play is actual defense. Baylor allows over 500 yards a game (514 ypg - 123rd), mostly in the air since they play in the Big 12 (323 ypg - 122nd) and their 38.2 points allowed each week is also one of the worst in the college game … ever.

It will be the task of UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley to pick apart the Bears defense and try and stay with the Bears point-for-point. Hundley has had a good first season as the starter (68%, 3,411 yards, 26 TD-to-11 INT), but it's no secret the Bruins are going to use heavy doses of senior running back Johnathan Franklin to neutralize the Bears attack. Franklin has rushed for 1,701 yards and 13 touchdowns this year, and his 6.3 yards per carry is something the Bruins will hang their hat on is order to try and keep Florence and Baylor off the field as much as possible.

These two have never met before this year's Holiday Bowl, so trends and history are hard to find for clues. Baylor is 5-2 ATS in neutral site games, but when the game only a few miles down the road in San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium, it's certainly going to be more like a home game for the Bruins.

I know it's hard to believe, but the over looks like a strong trends play too. Not only is the over a good choice in any game Baylor plays (8-3 this year, 5-0 in non-Big 12 games, 21-5-1 in L27 overall), but the over is also 6-0 in the Bruins last six games overall and 6-1 in games versus teams from the Big 12.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: There is going to be a TON of offense in this game and which team will win is really a coin flip. The UNDER 80.5 is the best option here. I think it will come very close to this number and sneak in right under it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

San Jose State Spartans vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Point Spread - Pick

No. 24 San Jose State Spartans (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Military Bowl
Date/Time: Thursday, December 27th, 2012, 3:00 p.m. EST
Where: RFK Stadium, Washington, D.C.
TV: ESPN/DirecTV 206
by Badger, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: SJSU -7/BGU +7
Over/Under Total: 47

The 24th-ranked San Jose State Spartans will try and notch their first 11-win season since the late 1930s when they travel across the country to RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C., to take on the Bowling Green Falcons in the Military Bowl on December 27th on ESPN.

The Spartans have been one of the biggest surprises in all of college football this season, notching their first 10-win campaign since 1987, with their two losses coming against two 11-win teams, Stanford and Utah State. The success has come at a big price however, as head coach Mike MacIntyre has been plucked away following the season to become the new head coach at Colorado, leaving defensive coordinator Kent Baer to run the team in the bowl game.

They'll face a Bowling Green squad that was alive for a chance at a Mid-American Conference (MAC) division title up until the middle of November, but a close loss at the hands of Kent State gave them their only loss in the final eight weeks of the season and cost them a shot at the MAC title game. The Falcons also lost to some quality teams throughout the season, including Florida, Virginia Tech and Toledo, so don't be deceived by the 4-loss record thinking this game will be an easy one for the Spartans.

With San Jose State being the first-ever ranked team to play in the Military Bowl, it's no surprise that oddsmakers installed them as 7.5-point favorites when the game went on the board in early December. With most of the early money coming in on the Spartans, the number has since dropped to minus -7 at most sportsbooks, although you can still find a few sitting still at -7.5 if you look for it.

The over/under total opened at 47 and has yet to move in either direction since it went up on the board.

When handicapping this game, at least on paper, it looks like your classic offense-vs.-defense matchup. San Jose State features one of the country's top throwing quarterbacks in David Fales, while Bowling Green has been the bizzarro-team of the MAC riding the nation's 7th-ranked defense all the way to eight wins and a bowl bid this season.

It's not much of a secret really, because this game is really going to turn on whether or not Fales can throw on the Falcons. Fales hits on 72 percent of his passes, finished 7th in FBS with 3,797 yards passing and also added 31 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. He's got two excellent targets in Noel Grigsby 1,172 yards, 9 TD) and Chandler Jones (10 TD), and when they are combined they finished 11th in the country with over 327 yards passing a game.

But Bowling Green features the 7th-ranked pass defense in the land, allowing just 173 yards a game. While the real strength of the Falcons defense is in their linebacking core, with Gabe Martin, Dwayne Woods and Paul Swan all possessing excellent range and open-field tackling ability, the Falcons also boast the MAC's defensive player of the year in DT Chris Jones, who finished 7th in the country with 12.5 sacks.

With the Spartans attack that averaged 35 points per game, another big question that will need to be answered is whether or not the Falcons can score enough points on offense to win the game. Quarterback Matt Schilz is a three-year starter, but he's had his issues with protecting the ball (14 TD-to-12 INT), and the Falcons offense certainly won't be confused with being high-powered since the finished 11th in the 13-team MAC at only 374 yards a game and only 23 point a game.

San Jose State can also play a little bit of defense, with WAC defensive player of the year DE Travis Johnson (12 sacks) and defensive back Bene Benwikere (7 INT) both capable of making game-changing plays for the Spartans.

As you would expect, these two schools have never met on the gridiron since the come from the WAC and the MAC, respectively.

Both have proved to be excellent wagers all season long, with San Jose State only failing to cover twice and they were forced to chase some big numbers against some of the weaker teams in the WAC (-21.5 to Idaho, -20.5 to New Mexico St.). Bowling Green was essentially in the same boat, chasing some big numbers against bad MAC teams (-19.5 to UMass, -14 to Eastern Mich.), but ironically their four ATS losses came in all of their four SU losses, and they were underdogs in all three of the four games.

A look at the betting trends also shows that the Spartans have been an excellent wager outside of the WAC, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-WAC games. San Jose State has also played under the total in five of their last seven non-WAC games, and when combined with the Falcons tough defense and their own strong record of playing under the total (under is 20-8 in L28 overall), the under may prove to be the best wager on the board in this game.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Normally I'd be all over San Jose in this game, because I think they are more talented with the better offense and a solid enough defense to keep Bowling Green off the board. But losing their head coach is a variable that makes me throw those things out the window … you just can't measure how important MacIntyre not being on the sidelines is going to be for this one. In the end I think San Jose State won't score as much as they are used to on a solid Falcons offense, but Bowling Green won't blow them out either. I'm taking the under of 47.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Duke Blue Devils
Point Spread - Pick

Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Belk Bowl Preview
Date/Time: Thursday December 27th, 2012. 6:30PM Eastern
Where: Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, N.C.
TV: ESPN
by Jay, Football Handicapper.

Point Spread: Cin -7.5/Duke +7.5
Over/Under Total: 60

For the first time in nearly two decades, the Duke Blue Devils will be a part of postseason football activity when they meet the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Belk Bowl at Bank of America Stadium. The last time Duke played in a bowl game dates all the way back to 1995 when the Blue Devils lost to Wisconsin in the Hall of Fame Bowl. In order to find Duke's last victory in postseason football, you would need to flip the record books all the way back to the 1960 Cotton Bowl where the Blue Devils pulled out a 7-6 victory over Arkansas. However, the Blue Devils have the chance to erase that 52 year drought and score another bowl victory when they meet the Bearcats in Charlotte on December 27th.

The 6-6 Blue Devils had a great start to the season before losing their final 4 games of the year. In fact there was a time this season when Duke led the ACC Coastal Division but faltered down the stretch. Duke's success in 2012 can be largely accredited towards the play of the offense. Duke's offense in general has historically been one of the worst in the ACC each year. However, Coach David Cutcliffe has instilled a more progressive passing offense which has the Blue Devils on the rise.

Duke's offense has averaged 277 yards per game through the air and the ability to contend in the ACC. Senior QB Sean Renfree has been solid this season by completing 66% passing for 18 scores and 8 picks for 2,755 yards. Wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Conner Vernon have posted stellar numbers this year as well. Crowder leads the team with 1,025 receiving yards and 7 scores while Vernon has added another 955 receiving yards for 6 touchdowns. Collectively, these guys have the ability to move the football fairly well as you will likely see when they battle the Bearcats. However, the problem has not been the offense but rather the defense in 2012.

Duke's defense has consistently been one of the worst units in college football this season giving up 462 total yards (104th in FBS) and 35 points (103rd in FBS) per game. Of course that is rather good news for Cincinnati who will ride into Charlotte following a respectable 9-3 mark this year. Cincinnati was caught a share of the Big East Championship but Louisville received the BCS bid due to their higher BCS ranking. Now the Bearcats will attempt to get above the .500 mark in postseason play considering the fact they are 6-6 all-time in bowl games.

The Bearcats have been pretty solid on both sides of the ball this season but they have excelled in the running game behind the legs of tailback George Winn. Winn has put together an impressive senior season by rushing for 1,204 yards and 12 touchdowns. Winn's 1,204 yards actually lead the entire Big East in rushing. Additionally QB Munchie Legaux is a legitimate running threat with the football and has added some respectable rushing numbers on the year. Legaux has struggled throwing the ball completing just 52% for 13 scores and 9 picks. Still, Cincinnati has averaged 200 yards per game on the ground as a team. That strong rushing attack is a big reason that the Bearcats are rather sizeable 7.5 favorites over the Blue Devils in the days leading up to kickoff.

Jay's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Most of Duke's defensive problems have been against the pass this season. If Legaux continues to play at an average level, I do not see Cincinnati running away with this one or at least posting a big number. On the flip side, I like the way the Bearcats stack up defensively against Duke and believe those reasons combined will push the scoring under the total mark. Take the under 60!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 190.5
Cost: -110

Run Line
(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
NBA - Boston Celtics+8.5
Cost: -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Football Play of the Day December 27, 2012 6:31 AM by GT Staff

Holiday Bowl

Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA

Baylor +3 (Total 81) vs. UCLA at 6:45 p.m. PT ESPN

No, this game will be fun to watch as both teams can score at will. The team that hits the half century mark just may be the Bruins and their speed and UCLA has gone 5-0 ATS vs. the Big 12 as the chalk or a dog of less than a field goal.

UCLA -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GamingToday’s Consensus Picks December 27, 2012 6:27 AM by GT Staff

NBA Basketball

Boston Celtics /Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 190

NCAA Basketball

Arkansas State -6½

College Football Bowl Games

Bowling Green +7½

Duke +9

Cincinnati/ Duke OVER 60

UCLA -3

Baylor /UCLA OVER 81

[Can'tPickAWinner]

stu feiner

high roller under 44 bowling green

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Mayer @ Gaming Today

Cincinnati -7 vs. Duke: Maybe the fact this bowl is in Charlotte, N.C., made the line drop from 11 to 7. Can’t imagine another explanation. We’re glad to see it. CINCY.

Baylor +1 vs. UCLA: The Bears beat Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma St. consecutively, scoring 145 points. The Bruins had a nice year, but are probably still smarting from two losses to Stanford. BAYLOR.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Richard Saber @ Gaming Today

THURSDAY

Military at Washington, DC

BGreen +7 vs. San Jose St. (46): The Spartans had a great season and would love to finish it off with the win in a rare bowl appearance. State went 10-2 both SU and ATS, ending the season with six straight wins. The last two came over BYU and La Tech. SAN JOSE ST.

Belk at Charlotte, NC

Duke +7 vs. Cincy (60): The Blue Devils went 6-6 SU and ATS but lost their last four both SU and ATS. They are bowling for the first time in eons. In those last four games (Florida St., Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami) they gave up an average of 49.5 points. The Bearcats went 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. The only common opponent, Virginia Tech, they beat 27-24. Tech beat Duke 41-20. CINCY/ OVER.

Holiday at San Diego

Baylor +1 vs. UCLA (80): Now this game will be worth staying up for. The answer will be who gets the ball last. I shake when betting beyond a number this high, but just can’t find a reason except snow and there will be none in San Diego. I’ll root for overtime. OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN 400*

6 pt teaser: Bowling Green +13.5, Cincinatti -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

San Jose St -7.5
Duke +9.5
Baylor +3