12-27-12

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Strike Point Sports Picks For College Basketball

2-Unit Play. #511 Take New Mexico (+6.5) over Cincinnati (9 p.m., Thursday, December 27)

At some point this Bearcats team is going to slip back down to reality. This Cincy team just isn't as good as its perfect record and Top Ten ranking suggests. Yes, they are good, but so is New Mexico. And as far as the Lobos' loss last time out to South Dakota State, I am chalking that one up to a lookahead spot to this exact game. New Mexico may have only one Top 25 victory on the season, but it is one more than an unproven Cincy team. At some point you have to look at this team's resume and say they haven't played anyone. It doesn't mean their wins don't count, but it's not like Mick Cronin's team has stepped out and proven it with quality non-conference wins. I want to say this Lobos team will come through here and win. Not sure about that, but I also do not see this being a one-sided result for the home Bearcats. I think Steve Alford's team will be ready to play after the bad pre-Christmas loss. Let's take the points and see if we can't produce with a nice underdog pick.

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Jimmy Boyd
5* (NCAAF) Bowling Green +7.5

4* (NCAAF) Duke +7.5

3* (NBA) Boston Celtics +8.5
3* (CBB) Saint Mary's -16.5

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Ray Falco

CFB

Baylor

NBA

Okla City

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OC DOOLEY

“2 UNIT” COLLEGE FOOTBALL SYSTEM TOTAL (Cincinnati versus Duke UNDER 60’ in a 6:35 eastern kickoff on ESPN): The Belk Bowl is being played outdoors in the home stadium of the NFL Carolina Panthers and even though there is no precipitation in the forecast, the temperatures (low 40’s) will be on the cool side and dropping as this early evening clash progresses.

It is easy to see why the posted total for this contest is high since Cincinnati has operated for years with the “spread” offense. One of the Bearcats former head coaches was Brian Kelly, who developed the spread attack while with Central Michigan, where one of his assistants was Butch Jones. After advancing to head coach status, Jones eventually landed with Cincinnati but he will NOT be involved with this particular postseason contest after accepting the vacant position with Tennessee.

Calling the shots for the Bearcats this evening will be the DEFENSIVE line coach and that seems appropriate since the team’s stop-unit was spectacular in the final 4 games of the regular season where the opposition was held to a points per game average of less than 12 per pop.

Keep an eye out for Cincinnati linebacker Greg Blair who stepped up his production when one of his teammates went down with a spinal injury. Blair finished with 123 tackles including 8’ for losses along with 2’ sacks. He quickly emerged as the EMOTIONAL leader of the defense which reminds me of emotional Baltimore Ravens star Ray Lewis.

On the other side of the ledger Duke cornerback Ross Cockrell who was picked on often early in his career ended up leading the entire Atlantic Coast Conference with 5 interceptions.

Turning to the database here is a 66-PERCENT SYSTEM (54-28 the past five years with a total between 56 and 63 points) which takes teams like Duke off consecutive games where the defense permitted 525+ yards each time UNDER the total, with an experienced quarterback returning as the starter. Duke fits that system to perfection as Sean Renfree is a three-year starter. Since he has completed more than 66% of his passes this evening’s total has been inflated for which I am taking advantage.

The Belk Bowl in Charlotte not only gives the Blue Devils a geographical advantage, they are participating in their first postseason event since 1994. The last time Duke emerged victorious in a Bowl was way back in 1960 when the final score (7-6) saw both sides held to single-digits. In the past twenty years Duke is 9-0 UNDER/ROAD after losing four times in a six-game stretch. In that same time span that dates back to 1992, Cincinnati for some reason has gone 11-1 UNDER when taking the field on a THURSDAY (check all calendars).

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Sebastian Report Update for Thursday:
200 Duke Buy to 10.
100 UCLA
100 Celtics

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Big Al
CBB
3* Roadkill on N ARZ.

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KB Hoops

College Bowl Record 5-3 +7.6 units

5 units Duke +9.5 **POD**
2 units UCLA -3

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Erin Rynning

10 Dallas

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RealSwoop
Duke over 61.5

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Texas Insiders: 100* Baylor

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MajorCovers 12/27
Ucla baylor under

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Handicappersports
CFB - BELK BOWL
on CINCY / DUKE UNDER 62.5

CBB
on LOU-LAFAYETTE +7 ...#507
on WESTERN ILLINOIS -5 ...#518