1-6-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Football
The Daniel Curry Index

Wild Card Round Predictions

Sunday, January 6, 2013

AFC Wild Card Round
INDIANAPOLIS 25, Baltimore 21

NFC Wild Card Round
Seattle 27, WASHINGTON 22

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NFL Picks

SUNDAY, JANUARY 6 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/31)

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 131.150; Baltimore 133.812 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 43 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+6 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: Seattle at Washington (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 141.159; Washington 142.642 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 45 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

5 Unit Play. #108 Take Washington Redskins +3 over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:30 pm FOX) I really believe that the wrong team is favored in this game, as the Seahawks are not as strong of a team without the 12th man backing them up. Washington has won seven straight games en route to winning the NFC East, and I believe that they have the more dynamic quarterback in RG3. He has the ability to beat you with his arm or his legs. The Seahawks are just 3-5 on the road this season, and that includes losses to Miami, Detroit, Arizona, and St. Louis. Washington is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Seattle is 6-16 ATS (1 push) in their last 23 games on grass. Washington stays hot, and we collect big in the process as well.

Washington by 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Accuscore

Analyst’s Top 2 NFL Wildcard Picks

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts Under 47 Points
The Under occurs in 58.2 percent of simulations averaging 44 points per. This game will be outdoors which should limit some of what the Colts do. The Ravens will also have some emotion of their own to counter the vibes for Indy with the retirement of Ray Lewis.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL WILDCARD ROUND - Saturday & Sunday
7-UNIT SUPER-HYDRAS*
*RAVENS -7* vs colts *(Sunday - 10am)*
*SEAHAWKS -3 *at redskins *(Sunday -
1:30pm)*

***Lines at LV Hilton 1-4-13, 3am
**All times Pacific
*

*5-UNIT
HYDRA*
*DENVER BRONCOS TO WIN SUPER BOWL
AT 2.5 TO 1* *(Risking 5 UNITS to
WIN 12.5 UNITS)*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence NFL Playoff Round GOY - Redskins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

2-Unit Play. Take #268 Kent State (+4) over Arkansas State (9 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 6)

I like Kent State to complete their strong season here. This team is explosive. And they will take advantage of Arkansas State's poor defense. I think that the wrong team is favored here. The spread is dropping so the sharp money agrees with me. Kent State is a Top 25 team and just missed playing in a BCS bowl game. They played a much tougher schedule than Arkansas State. Kent State has a very explosive offense and I don't think that Arkansas State will keep up in a shootout. ASU lost its head coach before this bowl game and that will not help their preparation. Take Kent State.

3-Unit Play. Take #105 Indianapolis (+7) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 6)

The Colts have been a big money team this year. They are 8-2 ATS and Andrew Luck is the hottest thing going. This is just like last year with Tebow. Everyone is on the Colts bandwagon and this is still too many points. The Ravens are old and banged up. The defense for Baltimore is not what it was. And I think that Ray Lewis announcing his retirement is going to be a distraction and put more pressure on this team. He is not the player that he was. Colts coach Chuck Pagano used to be a coach with the Ravens so he will know how to stop Ray Rice and the offense and how to attack the defense. The Colts don't have to win to cover this spread. And my numbers have this one being a field goal game one way or another. I think the Colts have a strong chance for a win here and I will take the points.

5-Unit Play. Take #108 Washington (+3) over Seattle (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 6)

This is my Game of the Week and it is from my NFL 411 System. I love the home underdog here! The Redskins won easily last week against Dallas and I think they will do the same thing here. Playoff underdogs are always a great bet and we've seen a lot of upsets in this Wild Card round. Last year Tim Tebow and Denver upset Pittsburgh and the year before that Seattle upset New Orleans at home as a big underdog. Seattle is not a good road team. This is a long trip for them and they have not been as strong without their home field advantage this year. Washington is on a 7-0 run SU and ATS and they are the hottest team in football. I think they will be able to move the ball against this Seattle defense and I think that they will win a shootout here. The Redskins will keep it going. Take the points and enjoy an outright winner.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

1-Unit Play. Take #268 Kent State (+4) over Arkansas State (9 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 6)
Arkansas State lost its head coach, Gus Mahlzan, last month and they have been left somewhat rudderless preparing for this bowl game. They have named a new coach, but there is clearly not as strong of organization for this team heading into this game. Mahlzan was a mastermind, and he will clearly be missed. The guy just knows offense and he completely turned this program around in the short time he was there. That's a huge loss. Kent State has some excellent individual players. I know they are disappointed that they didn't make it to a BCS bowl. But they are still playing after New Year's and they still want to finish in the Top 25. The MAC was pretty tough this year and the Golden Flashes really played well against better competition in the MAC than ASU faced in the Sun Belt. I like the Flashes with the points here and I think they are going to win this game going away.

3-Unit Play. Take #106 Baltimore (-6.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 6)
Note: If this line moves back to -7.0 then make it a 4-Unit Play. That would be a very telling movement indeed

Look, it is no secret how I feel about Andrew Luck. I feel like he is the most overrated player in the NFL right now. He's not good. Will he someday be good? Maybe. But right now he is not a good NFL quarterback. He turns the ball over a ton and by my count he should have AT LEAST 10 more turnovers than the 23 that he's already responsible for. And that is not going to fly in Baltimore. This Ravens team is one of the toughest, most experienced, most motivated in football right now. This team got a huge emotional boost with Ray Lewis' announcement that this will be his last hurrah. And they were going to get a huge emotional lift by playing at home anyway just from the fact that they have one of the best and most underrated home field advantages in all of football over the last decade. This team goes bonkers at home. And this will be a venue, and an opponent, unlike anything that Andrew Luck has seen. This would be a 7-Unit Play if it were not for Jim Caldwell being Baltimore's offensive coordinator. He is a total incompetent. But at the very least he should have some good insight into his former team, Indianapolis. I just think that Baltimore is set to explode. And - to my own detriment - I have not bought into the Andrew Luck Hype all season long. This is a play against the general public, which is piling on Luck at a nearly 3-to-1 ratio, and a counterintuitive selection. The Colts have gotten slaughtered on the road against the only good teams they have faced this year - losing by 20 at Chicago, by 26 at New York, by 35 at New England, and by 12 at Houston. They aren't a good team! And it will be proven (again) today in a blowout.


4-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.0 Seattle at Washington (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 6)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.5 Seattle at Washington (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 6)
Note: This play should be 5-Units and my Game of the Week. I mis-posted it at 4-Units, but I am not going to change it after it has gone live. I apologize for any confusion.

I really liked this total at 'Under' 43.5 when it got released. It then jumped up to 46.0 and this is one I had to jump at. I know everyone focuses on the offenses and the rookie quarterbacks here. But Seattle and Washington are both still playing (along with Minnesota) because they stick to a tried-and-true football maxim: they run the ball and they play great defense. That's it. They are two of the Top 5 rushing teams in football and both of them are going to keep the focus on the running game. The Seahawks also have a Top 5 defense. And even though Washington's numbers don't look that great, they have actually been a really good defense as well over the last two months. Both coaches are going to want to minimize the opportunity for their rookie quarterback to make a mistake early in what is the biggest games of their careers to this point. So that should lead to some conservative play calling and an overall conservative approach to this game. There will be nerves, the weather will be cold, and I see both of these teams dancing around the ring a little bit. I know Seattle had that run where they were scoring points hand over fist, averaging nearly 50 points per game for a three-game stretch in December. But that was an anomaly. In Seattle's road games this year they started the season with a total of 36, 32, 28, and 19 points. They had a shootout in Detroit, but the Lions defense is pathetic. Same with Buffalo. Their other two road games saw 45 and 40 points. This Seattle team just wasn't the same on grass and wasn't the same on the road. Also, the Seahawks defense is legit. This team has shut down offenses like Green Bay, New England and San Francisco. They hit - hard. And I think they will hold up their end. I see this game in the teens and I will be surprised if there are more than 40 points total.


2-Unit Play. SUPER BOWL FUTURES PLAYS: Take NFC (-2.5) over AFC (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 3)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sixth Sense

3% Ravens

3% Colts / Ravens Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Wash

2* Ark St, Balt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nelly's
Sunday
2* Baltimore -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLDSHEET

INDIANAPOLIS (11-5) at BALTIMORE (10-6)

Indianapolis 27 - BALTIMORE 26—How important are intangibles once the
postseason begins? We’ll find out in this matchup. And if they are as impactful
as some believe, it’s advantage Indy, which enters having won 9 of its last 11
while playing with a purpose for stricken coach Chuck Pagano, who made a
triumphant return to the sidelines last week after missing almost three months
due to leukemia treatments. Pagano also gets to match wits against his former
Ravens team, for which he served as d.c. before taking the Indy assignment
after the 2011 campaign.
The case for host Baltimore? Surely not current form, as the Ravens enter
having lost 4 of their last 5 SU, with added internal distractions of o.c. Cam
Cameron’s mid-December dismissal. Instead, the Ravens count playoff
experience as an edge against a Colts side employing so many rookies (including
QB Andrew Luck) in key positions. Indeed, Baltimore has reached the postseason
in all five of HC John Harbaugh’s seasons.
Yet, despite some recurring errors (such as 18 picks), Luck is hardly a
normal rookie QB; stat lines can’t quantify resilience or leadership, qualities that
Luck continues to exude, rubbing off on other Indy rookies (such as RB Vick
Ballard & WR T.Y. Hilton) playing key roles. Luck also isn’t facing the sort of
rock-ribbed “D” that Baltimore fielded in recent years, even if vet LB Ray Lewis
returns from injury. And, despite an experience edge, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco
hardly looked preferable to Luck down the stretch and rarely helped his team
extend margins. The Ravens’ low-variance tendencies make them a very risky
proposition vs. an Indy side riding quite a wave of momentum into the postseason.

SEATTLE (11-5) at WASHINGTON (10-6)


WASHINGTON 26 - Seattle 23—Two hot teams. Two excellent rookie QBs.
So edges are small in this one. Washington has won & covered seven straight
games. Seattle has won five straight; covered six of its last eight. Give Robert
Griffin III the running edge (815 YR, 7 TDR) over Russell Wilson (489 YR), but
give Wilson (26 TDs, 10 ints.) a slight edge over Griffin (20 TDs, 5 ints.)
orchestrating a pro-style passing attack. The 26 TD throws by Wilson tie
Peyton Manning’s record for rookie QBs.
The ultra-aggressive Seahawks go into the game full of confidence, having
outscored their last five foes 193 to 60! And one must recognize that the
Seahawks (8-0 at home TY) have become much tougher on the road. Seattle
has won its last two excursions—at Chicago in OT and at Toronto vs. the Bills.
Moreover, under the fiery Pete Carroll, the Seahawks never fall easily on the
road, with their five losses TY by 4, 6, 7, 4 & 3 points.
The early line movement on this game was solidly in support of the
Seahawks, who still have a veteran core on the team that has playoff
experience from Seattle’s unlikely playoff run two years ago, when the Hawks
ran past New Orleans before losing in Chicago. Plus, this season’s team is
healthier, deeper and faster now with Carroll in his third season.

It has been obvious the past two weeks that RG3 hasn’t been his normal self,
still limited somewhat by his recent sprained knee, with HC Mike and offensive
coordinator Kyle Shanahan altering their playcalling just a bit to help protect
him. But Griffin (6 for 63 YR and a TD vs. the Cowboys) was closer to his old
self last week, showing that he is making a rapid recovery. Also, it will be
interesting to see if Carroll’s defense can deal with Washington’s pro-style
spread-option, considering that Carroll’s USC teams always seemed mystified
a bit when facing the scheme.
Lastly, it was clear last week vs. Dallas’ Tony Romo that Jim Haslett’s
Redskin defense had reached a new level in terms of blitz pressure, thanks to
ever-improving coverage in the Washington secondary.
One thing is sure. The hype surrounding this meeting of rookie QB
sensations will be awesome, even by NFL standards. But certainly don’t mind
siding with a hot team as a home dog in the wildcard round, with the spread
Seattle -2½ at our deadline.

KEY RELEASE
★★★UNDER THE TOTAL Memphis 86 - PHOENIX 85—Memphis’ form
has been a bit erratic in recent weeks, as Grizzlies had covered just 5 of last 14
vs. number prior to Jan. 4 game Portland. Keeping team afloat on the SU side,
however, has been consistently solid defense, as Memphis’ 89.8 ppg allowance
ranks as NBA’s best. Still, Phoenix has proven a tough nut to crack lately for the
Grizzlies, who were pushed into OT vs. the Suns on Dec. 4 at FedEx Forum
before losing outright at US Airways Center eight nights later. Memphis needed
almost all of Zach Randolph’s 38 points to survive first meeting, but Suns got
their payback in rematch when doing a much better job off glass (Phoenix 44-
40 rebound edge in second meeting after being outboarded 50-32 in earlier
clash). Suns still looking for a “closer” after blowing many late leads in recent
weeks, and had lost 6 of last 7 SU thru Jan. 3. But Phoenix had still covered
8 of last 11 prior to facing Jazz on Jan. 4. “Totals” alert—Grizzlies “under” 16-5
last 21 thru Jan. 3.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEDDY COVERS
15* NFL* BIG TICKET: BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 46 -110
10* NFL* SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -3 -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Veno

20* Seahawks / Redskins Under

10* Seahawks