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805 MIA / 806 TOR OVER 195.5 5dimes
Analysis:
I'm playing the Over between the Hea†t & Raptors on Sunday. The Heat lost by 13 points to Indiana two nights ago. The interesting note is that when Miami loses by more than 10 points they "turn up the Heat" on the offensive end. This season, Miami has followed losses of more than 10 points by scoring 119, 113, 106, and 112 points, for an average of 112.5 ppg. Take it back to last season and they scored 100 or more the final three times off a loss of more than 10 points. Lebron and company regain their focus off an embarrassing loss in a hurry and I expect more of the same in this one. I'm not betting on Miami to cover the number, but I do believe we're in for a high scoring affair. Miami is on a 5-1 Over run when playing with one day off between games and they're on a 34-16-1 Over run the last 51 times off a double-digit loss. I'm playing the Over between Miami and Toronto, which would extend the Over run in this series to 6-2 the last eight times at Air Canada Centre. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
SUPER BOWL WINNER. SAN FRAN 34 BALT 20. Max Bet On - 3.5. Max Bet On Money Line -180. Medium Bet On Over 47.5. Medium Bet On Parlay Of San Fran And Over. TY Stu Feiner.
From SUPER BOWL BEST BETS
QUARTERBACK PLAYER PROPS
You have to go back to the 2006 regular season to find the last time the Ravens gave up more than 40 rushing yards to an opposing quarterback. Granted, there aren't many QBs with the running ability Colin Kaepernick has displayed in recent weeks, but Baltimore did face both Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III this season when each player was healthy. Vick was held to 34 rushing yards on 10 carries in Week 2, and RGIII to 34 rushing yards on seven carries in Week 14. The Ravens will not allow Kaepernick to reach 50 rushing yards on Sunday.
BEST BET: Kaepernick UNDER 50.5 rush yards
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Well, the big day has arrived as after two weeks of Harbaugh this and
Harbaugh that, it is finally time for Super Bowl XLVII between the Baltimore
Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New
Orleans Sunday at 6:30 ET on CBS. Fans may get the tight Super Bowl that they
always crave, but it may not be as high scoring as some would like, and besides
the two defenses, this game will probably be decided by who runs the ball
better.
San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick has made the third fewest starts
of any quarterback to ever start a Super Bowl, but he has performed like a
grizzled veteran so far in the post-season, especially while leading the
49ers back from a 17-0 deficit on the road vs. the Falcons in the NFC
Championship Game. Kaepernick actually won that game from the pocket with effective
passing downfield after spending most of his time out of the pocket while
setting an NFL single-game rushing record for a quarterback vs. the Green Bay
Packers the previous week. Do not expect him to have the same passing success
he had two weeks ago in this Super Bowl though, as the Ravens played
perhaps the best pass defense in the NFL over the last month after struggling in
that regard for about two-thirds of the season. Remember that Ray Lewis and
Terrell Suggs did not play together in a single game during the regular
season as they have in the playoffs, but perhaps most important has been the
development of Paul Kruger into one of the best rush linebackers in the league
late in the year. But while Kaepernick may not match his recent passing
success, his running, as well as that of Frank Gore, will be a major key to this
game vs. a Baltimore team not accustomed to facing a read option offense,
Similarly, while Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco has been brilliant in the
playoffs, we may see a lot more of running backs Ray Rice and Bernard
Pierce in this contest. The biggest beneficiary of the week off last week from
either team may be 49ers defensive end Justin Smith, who is playing through a
partially torn triceps tendon. Smith keyed a ferocious pass rush earlier in
the year, and the San Francisco defense was not the same while Smith sat out
the rest of the regular season after suffering the injury at New England,
and it has not been the same with him back for the first two playoff games
either. If the added rest allows him to get closer to what he was, then we
should see the return of the dominant San Francisco defense since as great as
Flacco has been, he is not the most mobile of quarterbacks.
The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight Super Bowls. The 'under' is also 4-1
in the last five Baltimore games vs. teams with winning records, as well as
4-1 in the Ravens' last five games overall.
Pick: UNDER 48
Dr. Bob
Baltimore (+3 ½) 24 San Francisco 23
Leaning with Baltimore + 3 1/2
No opinion on total, will lean with under at 48 pts or higher
Props
2* best bet - Total interceptions UNDER 1.5
Strong opinion - Baltimore +57.5 rushing yards
Strong opinion - second half to be higher scoring
Strong opinion - 4th quarter to be the highest scoring quarter
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