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4-STAR PHOENIX -1 over Minnesota - When you are looking at the two worst teams in a conference, home court advantage is huge. We don't understand why Vegas would think Minnesota would have the edge in a neutral site matchup between these teams and are inclined to grab the Suns here.
Minnesota lost at home Sunday to Golden State, 100-99. It was a late loss as they led nearly the entire game. The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since January 02, 2008 as a dog with at most one day of rest off a loss in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters.
Phoenix fell to San Antonio at home Sunday, 97-87. Of their 30 baskets in that game, 24 were assisted. The Suns are 11-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since November 08, 2009 as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a game in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.
However, Phoenix was also riddled with 20 turnovers. The Suns are 7-0-1 ATS (10.9 ppg) since March 22, 2008 as a home favorite with at least one day of rest after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.
They did a nice job getting to the foul line and went 24-of-33 there. The Suns are 6-0-1 ATS (8.2 ppg) since April 29, 2010 after a game at home in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PHOENIX 103, Minnesota 94
4-STAR Cleveland and Chicago Under 190.5 - Poor shooting like Chicago's is one thing, but it really does not bode well when a team plays at a slow pace to begin with. Don't expect Chicago's poor shooting to encourage them to play for any more possessions in what should amount to a low scoring game.
Chicago shot just 29% from the field in a 102-72 loss to Oklahoma City Sunday. The Bulls are 0-8 OU (-13.6 ppg) since February 20, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field.
Joakim Noah was one offender. He went just 2-of-9 from the field. The Bulls are 0-12 OU (-14.5 ppg) since March 22, 2008 at home with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Joakim Noah shot worse than 33% from the field.
Noah finished with eight points and nine rebounds. The Bulls are 0-9 OU (-10.9 ppg) since April 04, 2009 at home with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Joakim Noah had more rebounds than points.
Carlos Boozer scored just two points in 24 minutes. He also had three turnovers and just one assist. The Bulls are 0-6 OU (-14.2 ppg) since April 21, 2012 at home after a loss in which Carlos Boozer had more turnovers than assists.
Cleveland gave Miami a run but fell Sunday night, 109-105. They were led by Dion Waiters with 26 points as Kyrie Irving had 17. The Cavaliers are 0-10 OU (-11.1 ppg) since March 25, 2012 with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Kyrie Irving was not the Cavaliers' high scorer.
Alonzo Gee had nine points in 40 minutes, taking just seven shots in the game. The Cavaliers are 0-8 OU (-12.2 ppg) since November 17, 2012 with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Alonzo Gee took fewer than 10 shots.
When these teams met last in January, Chicago won 118-92. They held a 47-31 rebounding edge in that game. The Cavaliers are 0-8 OU (-10.6 ppg) since February 27, 2011 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they were out-rebounded by double-digits.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Cleveland 91, CHICAGO 88
4-STAR INDIANA -8 over Golden State - Golden State has revived itself in the last three games, but that has mainly come at home. Their performances against decent or better teams on the road recently have still been quite poor. Indiana's size and defensive focus is a tough matchup for Golden State and we didn't see it going well for them today.
Golden State trailed nearly the entire way before pulling off a 100-99 win in Minnesota Sunday. They overcame 22 turnovers in the win. The Warriors are 0-9 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since March 12, 2004 as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.
However, they've been pushing their starters recently, David Lee in particular who played 41 minutes in that game. The Warriors are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since December 29, 2010 on the road after David Lee played more than 40 minutes the last two.
Indiana has won four straight games. They defeated Detroit on the road Saturday, 90-72. The Pacers are 9-0-1 ATS (11.7 ppg) since January 04, 2005 as a home favorite with two or more days of rest when they held their opponent to fewer than 85 points in their last game.
Detroit was held to just 34% shooting in that game. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS (16.2 ppg) since January 04, 2005 as a home favorite with two or more days of rest after a game on the road in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
Roy Hibbert had 10 points in the win but Indiana was led by George Hill with 17. The Pacers are 9-0-1 ATS (8.8 ppg) since February 28, 2012 at home after a win on the road in which Roy Hibbert was not the Pacers' high scorer.
Working Danny Granger back into the fold, he struggled in the game but was able to play 19 minutes. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since November 07, 2006 at home with at least a day of rest after a win on the road in which Danny Granger played fewer than 30 minutes. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: INDIANA 106, Golden State 91
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