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Triple-dime bet - 599 Kansas -3.5 (-110) vs 600 Baylor
Analysis: It can often be a slippery slope when laying points on the road in league play, you've got to pick your spots. I say we have one here guys. If there is a more underachieving team in the country than Baylor then I honestly don't know who it would be. Scott Drew might be a pretty capable recruiter but when it comes to developing his players he falls well short of most of the upper echelon coaches. The mark of a great coach is to see how much better players are his kids after they are through their career. I was visiting with a source who told me Drew could rank at the bottom of the conference in this area. I could not agree more. Okay, as for this specific game. We faded Baylor against Texas and I'm doing it again here. They have basically played themselves right out of contention for the big dance and team morale cannot be exactly high. I realize it's senior night in Waco but that guarantee's nothing, take Cal the other night for example. The fact is since their rare three game losing streak Kansas has resumed looking like, well, Kansas. The Jayhawks have reeled off seven straight games and are gunning for a potential #1 seed in the dance. Maybe the home crowd will get the juices flowing for Baylor and they might rise up and bite the favored Jayhawks. I love taking underdogs but frankly I just cannot back this Baylor team here. They might come out with some early emotion but that kind of thing can thin our quickly if things aren't clicking. I think once the Jayhawks hit this team in the mouth they will fold. I've seen it too many times before. I see Kansas prevailing here and easily clearing the number guys. Triple Star on Bill Self and his Kansas Jayhawks to crash the party. Okay, one final thought. My regular clients know this speech by heart now. My record with the big plays speaks for itself, but I don't believe in locks. Locks are marketing bullshit aimed at targeting newer, naive sports bettors. They do not exist. Hell, I wish they did. The only way to have success long term is to practice self discipline and money management guys. I was a bookie for years, I've seen it up close and personal. I know for a stone cold fact 90% of the bettors can't or won't abide by this philosophy. Don't be just another one of the herd fellas, be part of that 10% that actually gets it. Why do I keep harping on this? Because I actually do give a damn guys. If I didn't I'd just post the play and move on. Anyway, that's the sermon for now. Best of luck to us once again. Enjoy the game!
4-1 this week, 5-1 Run overall the last 6 days, let's keep rolling with our 1 POD System and hopefully shoot for a 6-1 or 5-2 week. Over the course of many weeks, our goal is to up as many of these streaks together.
4-Unit Play. #534. Take Vanderbilt -9 over South Carolina (Saturday @ 1:30pm est).
Ferringo CBB LIU-Brooklyn +6 *plus a half*
Florida -6
Teaser: Providence +9, Marquette -2 *plus a half*
Teaser: Detroit -1, Florida -1
UMASS -3
Oregan -4
Auburn -1
Duke +2
Loyola-Maryland -3
Marquette -7.5 *plus a half*
LA tech +7.5 *plus a half*
ST. Joseph -3 *plus a half*
OVER 132 Lasalle/St.Louis *plus a half*
Iowa State -3.5
South Carolina +9
LSU -2
Ball State -11
NC State -3.5
Miami -12.5
Boise State -2
Arizona State +11
James Madison -2.5
OVER 131 Loyoyla Marymount/Gonzaga
UNDER 137 Northern Arizona/Montana
Teaser: Sandiego +19, Valpo -4
Teaser: Duke +7, Belmont -2
Teaser: Marquette -2.5, Duke +7
Game: Northern Illinois at Ball State (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Northern Illinois +10.5 (-110)
Over the past three seasons, the Huskies are 27-15 ATS on the road. Under head coach Mark Montgomery, the Huskies are 9-2 ATS on the road after an ATS loss and 10-2 ATS following a game in which they scored 55 or less. Dating back to last season, Ball State is 7-16 ATS as a favorite. Northern Illinois has mustered all of four wins this season against Division-1 competition and enter here on a nine-game losing streak. Most will look at them unfavorably here because of the extended losing streak, but what they don't realize is that over the last seven years in NCAA basketball, teams on a nine-game losing streak cover over 55% of the time. Ball State has climbed to the .500 mark on the strength of four straight wins, covering all four of them. This situation doesn't occur frequently, but a team on a nine-game losing streak vs. a team on a four-game ATS streak are 3-0 ATS, as a subset of the above. Make the play on the dog, and back Northern Illinois.
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