3-15-13

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NCAAB

Friday, March 15

SEC tournament: Quarterfinals betting preview

LSU Tigers vs. Florida Gators (-15, 126)

Florida was closing in on a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament until suffering through a rough few weeks. The top-seeded Gators try to get their legs back under them when they open up their SEC tournament play against No. 9 seed LSU on Friday. The Tigers need a signature win over a team like Florida to impress the selection committee and keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive.

LSU held off Georgia in the second round of the SEC tournament Thursday and has won nine of its last 13 games to draw closer to the bubble. Florida easily handled the Tigers back in January and entered the week with the third-best scoring defense in the country. The problem down the stretch was on the offensive end, where the Gators were held to an average of 62.7 points over their final six games. LSU was impressive defensively in Thursday’s win but was 12th in the league in scoring defense during the regular season.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.



Tennessee Volunteers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (+1.5, 122)

Alabama and Tennessee are both sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble and could use a deep run in the SEC tournament to impress the selection committee. One of those teams will get a chance to continue its run when the fourth-seeded Crimson Tide take on the fifth-seeded Volunteers in the quarterfinals on Friday at Nashville, Tenn. Alabama earned a bye through to the quarterfinals while Tennessee had to fend off Mississippi State to reach this point.

The Crimson Tide dropped to the wrong side of the bubble by losing three of five to end the regular season. Two of those setbacks came at first-place Florida and at second-place Mississippi, where wins would have really improved Alabama's tournament resume. Alabama struggled on the road throughout SEC play, including a 54-53 setback at the Volunteers on Jan. 26. Tennessee looked strong in its tournament opener on Thursday and has won nine of its last 10 contests.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Volunteers are 4-12 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
* Under is 19-7 in Crimson Tide's last 26 overall.



Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (+5.5, 129)

Kentucky hopes to build off the momentum from its win over No. 11 Florida in the regular-season finale when it takes on Vanderbilt in the SEC quarterfinals Friday in Nashville, Tenn. The Wildcats swept the regular-season series from the Commodores but only by a combined six points.

This will be the tournament opener for Kentucky, which is barely in safe territory for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. A win against Vanderbilt could help land the Wildcats on the right side of the bubble come Sunday. But the defending champion Commodores have everything to gain with a repeat title being their only hope at the tournament. The winner of this game will advance to Saturday's semifinal round against either third-seeded Mississippi, sixth-seeded Missouri or 11th-seeded Texas A&M.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats have played over the total in five of their last seven games overall.
* Commodores are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.



Missouri Tigers vs. Mississippi Rebels (+4.5, 157)

Third-seeded Mississippi opens its SEC tournament with a quarterfinal game against sixth-seeded Missouri on Friday. The Rebels earned a double bye after finishing in a tie for second in the SEC standings, while the Tigers advanced to the quarterfinals with a 62-50 victory over Texas A&M on Thursday in the second round. The two teams split their two games in the regular season, with Missouri having a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde reaction to playing the Rebels.

In the first meeting, the Tigers scored 49 points and lost. In the second encounter, Missouri won by scoring 98 points, the most Mississippi allowed all season. The league's top two scoring teams will try to light up the scoreboard and advance, but the Tigers' defensive effort against Texas A&M could be an indication they are ready to excel at both ends of the floor.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.
* Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
* Over is 25-9 in Tigers' last 34 overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
College Basketball Premium Picks

NCAA-B | Mar 15 '13 (3:30p) TENNESSEE vs ALABAMA	TENNESSEE -2-106 at 5dimes
15* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Tennessee -2 The Tennessee Volunteers are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now. My latest check has them as the final team in the "first four in" category in Joe Lunardi's bracket. That means a loss today to Alabama and they'll likely move down to the "first four out" list. They aren't going to chance that today folks. Tennessee has been playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch just to get itself in the discussion of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols have won nine of their last 10 games overall, which includes four road wins, and home victories over Kentucky (88-58), Florida (64-58) and Missouri (64-62). This is a dangerous team that nobody wants to face right now. Alabama has been up and down all season. It closed the year with losses in three of its last five games to put itself clearly out of the NCAA Tournament discussion barring a deep run in the SEC Tournament. Its only wins during that stretch came at home against Auburn and Georgia, and it even needed a buzzer-beater to beat the Bulldogs in its season finale. The Vols are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Crimson Tide are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

-= TOP PLAY =-

NCAA-B | Mar 15 '13 (7:00p) SYRACUSE vs GEORGETOWN	SYRACUSE +2½-110 at BetOnline
20* Syracuse/Georgetown ESPN No-Brainer on Syracuse +2 The Syracuse Orange are the best No. 5 seed of any conference tournament in the country. They have gotten by Seton Hall and Pittsburgh, and now they'll upset the No. 1 seed Georgetown Hoyas Friday night. This game is personal for the Orange. Georgetown has won the first two meetings with Syracuse this season, both by double-digits. That includes a 61-39 home victory in their regular season finale on March 9th less than a week ago. There's no question that the Orange are going to be more motivated for a win tonight than they have been at any other point this season as they look for revenge. At the same time, I fully expect the Hoyas to relax having already beating Syracuse twice by double-digits. They will think they just have to show up to win, and they won't be coming out with the same intensity as the Orange because of it. This play falls into a system that is 91-47 (65.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (SYRACUSE) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. Syracuse is 20-6 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997. The Orange are 22-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Syracuse Friday.

NCAA-B | Mar 15 '13 (7:30p) IOWA STATE vs Kansas

IOWA STATE +6-105 at 5dimes

15* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE DAY on Iowa State +6 The Iowa State Cyclones will be more motivated for a win tonight than in any other game they have played all season. This is personal with the Kansas Jayhawks, as Iowa State was simply robbed of two victories over them during the regular season. Both regular season meetings went to overtime. Iowa State lost the first at Kansas after a banked 3-pointer went in for the Jayhawks at the end of regulation to force overtime, a complete fluke. Then, the Cyclones blew a late double-digits lead at home and eventually lost in overtime. The Big 12 came out after the game and admitted the refs blew some calls late that cost Iowa State the victory. I fully expect Iowa State to win outright tonight, but I'm just going to take the points for some added insurance. Kansas is clearly vulnerable after needing overtime to beat the Cyclones twice this year, and after losing 58-81 at Baylor in its regular season finale with the Big 12 title on the line. This isn't the same dominant Jayhawks team from year's past. Iowa State has won and covered three straight games over Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and West Virginia heading into this one. This play falls into a system that is 52-23 (69.3%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on any team (IOWA ST) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite. The Cyclones are 40-18-2 ATS in their last 60 vs. Big 12 opponents. Iowa State is 19-6 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Cyclones are 15-5 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State Friday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach
La Salle, Illinois, Lakers

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Carlos Campenalla
Georgetown, Under Rockets/GS

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NBA

Friday, March 15

Grizzlies at Nuggets: What bettors need to know

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets (-5, 195)

The two hottest teams west of Miami square off Friday when the Denver Nuggets host the Memphis Grizzlies. The Nuggets are seeking their 11th consecutive victory overall and their 15th straight home win. The Grizzlies have won six straight games and 14 of their last 15. Adding to the stellar matchup is that fifth-place Denver is just 1 1/2 games behind third-place Memphis in the Western Conference playoff race. The Grizzlies are playing the third contest of a four-game road swing.

Memphis has held 12 straight opponents under 100 points and it will be quite a challenge for them to hold down the high-flying Nuggets, who are averaging 122.8 points during their 10-game winning streak. The Grizzlies are a solid 19-11 on the road while Denver boasts a 29-3 home mark. Nuggets forward Wilson Chandler said his squad is happy with the two impressive streaks but not satisfied. “It feels good, but at the same time, we just want to keep playing like we’ve lost five in a row,” Chandler said after Wednesday’s trouncing of the New York Knicks. “You want to close the season strong, but you worry about getting better as a team rather than a win streak.” Denver has won two of this season’s three meetings, with Memphis holding the Nuggets to a season-low 72 points in its win on Dec. 29.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, SportSouth (Memphis), Altitude (Denver)

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (44-19, 38-24-1 ATS): Forward Tayshaun Prince was initially stunned and disappointed that the Detroit Pistons had shipped in him to Memphis after 10 1/2 seasons but has begun to fit in well with the Grizzlies. Prince scored 18 points on 9-of-15 shooting in Wednesday’s victory over the Los Angeles Clippers and the scoring output matched his best showing in 18 games since joining the squad. Prince is averaging 9.4 points with Memphis. “We just keep playing good basketball,” Prince said after the win over Los Angeles. “It’s very surprising I’m able to build that bond with them so quickly, without having a training camp. We trust each other, and that’s the most important thing.”

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (44-22, 41-24-1 ATS): Denver last won 11 straight games during the 1982-83 season and has become nearly invincible at home. Chandler had 24 points on 9-of-12 shooting against the Knicks for his fourth 20-point outing in 11 games and has become a valuable reserve. Chandler missed most of the first 2 1/2 months after having offseason hip surgery and is averaging 11.4 points. Power forward Kenneth Faried has been a consistent force in the interior and recorded his 28th double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds against New York. Faried averages 11.8 points and 9.6 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Grizzlies are 6-14 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Denver.
* Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Nuggets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Grizzlies are just 4-29 when playing in Denver, including a 99-96 loss on Dec. 14.

2. The Nuggets have scored 100 or more points in 24 of their past 25 games.

3. Memphis F Zach Randolph is averaging 16 points and nine rebounds in two games since returning from a four-game absence due to an ankle injury.

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Beat Your Bookie

Miami Fl
St Louis
Florida
Colo St

Pacers
Raptors

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Gametime

Miami Fl
Indiana U
St Louis
Syracuse
Iowa St
New Mexico
Colo St

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Paul Stone Vegas Sports Authority

#823 NC State -1.5 (1 unit)
#832 Wisconsin +3 (1 unit)
#849 Vanderbilt +6.5 (1 unit)
#857 Kent State +3.5 (1 unit)
#862 Georgetown UNDER 115.5 (1 unit)
#865 Iowa State +6 (1 unit)

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Larry Ness' 10* Conf Tourney G.O.M.-CBB (67% s/Feb 1)-Day

My 10* ACC Tourney Game of the Month is on NC State at 2:30 ET.


Scott Spreitzer's CBB *EARLY* BLOCKBUSTER! *32-16, 67% Run!

I'm laying the points with Florida on Friday (1 PM ET)

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Scott Spreitzer's CBB DAYTIME SLAM DUNK! *32-16 Run! - Friday!

I'm backing NC State on Friday afternoon

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Totals 4 You College Basketball Selections for Early Friday, March 15th

2013 College Basketball Conference Tournament Total of the Year!!!!!
Boston College/Miami over 125 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Tonight's College Report Free of Charge!!!

Early College Best Bets
NC State/Virginia under 127
Illinois/Indiana under 139
Michigan/Wisconsin over 123 1/2
Tennessee/Alabama under 117 1/2

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From Platinum Plays. 500K Big12 Tournament Lock/Year
the Iowa St Cyclones +6 over
the Kansas Jayhawks
Best Bets
the Kentucky Wildcats -6 over
the Vanderbilt Commodores
the VCU Rams -7 over
the St Josephs Hawks
the Arizona Wildcats -4 over
the UCLA Bruins
the UNLV Running Rebels -4½ over
the Colorado St Rams

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From Platinum Plays. PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK
the Florida Gators -15 over
the LSU Tigers

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From Platinum Plays. 500K Tournament Parlay
the Tennessee Volunteers -1½ over
the Alabama Crimson Tide
the Indiana Hoosiers -9½ over
the Illinois Fighting Illini
Best Bets



the Virginia Cavaliers +1 over
the NC State Wolf Pack
the Michigan Wolverines -3 over
the Wisconsin Badgers
the St Louis Billikins -11 over
the Charlotte 49ers
PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK

the Florida Gators -15 over
the LSU Tigers

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Paul Leiner

100* Butler -1.5

100* Tennessee -2

50* Miami -8