3-31-13

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Texas at Houston (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Texas -155 (moneyline)
Major League Baseball makes its 2013 debut as the Texas Rangers make the in-state trip to Houston to take on the Astros. Houston lost 106 games in 2011, and it appeared the only way to go for this team was up last season. Buyt, they added to the loss column a year ago at 107. The Stros will try their hand in the AL this year, but their prospects for improvement are minimal with no significant upgrades. The Rangers are a bona fide contender to make it all the way to the World Series. This is a small price to pay here when they are facing a team that wins just one out of every three home games over the last two years vs. winning opponents. And, there is no doubt that the Rangers are going to be a better than .500 team this year. Texas has won 65% of all their road games over the last two seasons vs. a team below .400, which the Astros are destined to be. Over the past two seasons, the Astros are just 45-102 as an underdog. Play on Texas.

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Betting Sunday's Elite 8 games
Ted Sevransky
ESPN Insider
March 30, 2013


Underdogs ruled the day in Sweet 16 betting action Thursday and Friday, finishing the round with a 6-2 against-the-spread record. That included outright upset wins by Syracuse, Marquette and Michigan, along with point-spread covers in defeat from Florida Gulf Coast, Oregon and Arizona. The only two favorites to cover the spread Thursday and Friday were Wichita State and Duke, both of which cruised to double-digit victories.

The long-term betting trends for the Elite Eight round tell us that we should expect more of the same on Sunday. Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Elite Eight action last year, but long-term, dating to 1998, underdogs are 35-23 ATS, cashing at a better than 60 percent clip over a 15-year sample size. That being said, I'm not in love with either underdog on Sunday.

I split with my two "best bets" in my last column, cashing with Michigan's wild overtime win over Kansas but losing with Florida when the Gators won by only 12 as 13- or 14-point favorites. Neither of my two lesser opinions (Louisville and Michigan State) cashed. With only two games on tap Sunday, I'm looking for a big bounce-back 2-0 sweep. Both recommendations in this article are wager-worthy, marked with an asterisk as best bets.

No. 1 Louisville Cardinals versus No. 2 Duke Blue Devils Vegas consensus line: Louisville minus-3.5

Just about everything went right for Duke in its 10-point win over Tom Izzo's Spartans on Friday. Fifth-year senior Seth Curry went nuts from 3-point range, hitting six of nine tries from beyond the arc while coming within a single bucket of matching his season high in scoring. The Blue Devils were extraordinarily proficient from the free throw line as well, hitting 24 of their 26 foul shots. That's well above their 73 percent season average from the charity stripe. The Blue Devils committed only seven turnovers -- well below their season average -- and avoided any semblance of foul trouble.

I'm not willing to bet that the Blue Devils will match that level of performance here. Coach Mike Krzyzewski's rotation lacks depth. Four of Duke's five starters played at least 36 minutes in that tough, physical contest against Michigan State, and it certainly won't get easier against another defensive-minded team like Louisville. Duke's biggest weaknesses -- limited depth, lack of low-post muscle and poor rebounding -- are all issues that Louisville can exploit. This is a tough matchup for Duke's low post duo of Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly, neither of whom handles physical opponents particularly well.

Louisville has been an undervalued commodity for more than a month, riding a 9-1 ATS mark in its last 10 games. And the Cardinals have been point-spread machines in the postseason, with a 13-1-1 ATS record in their last 15 Big East and NCAA tournament games, dating to the start of the 2012 Big East tournament. Their spotty shooting during the regular season has been a nonfactor in March, hitting better than 50 percent of their shots over their last five games. And it's worth noting that Rick Pitino's depth works strongly in his favor in this matchup -- only Russ Smith and Gorgui Dieng played more than 25 minutes in Friday's win over Oregon.

Duke won the first meeting between these two teams this season, a post-Thanksgiving matchup in the Bahamas. The Cardinals shot better than Duke, forced 14 Blue Devils turnovers, won the rebounding battle and dominated the offensive glass even without the injured Dieng but still lost the game. The key to that defeat was that Duke got the calls, making 23 free throws compared to only nine for Louisville. I'm not expecting that type of disparity in the rematch.

The ATS pick: Louisville*

No. 3 Florida Gators versus No. 4 Michigan Wolverines Vegas consensus line: Florida minus-2.5

Michigan certainly wasn't a "right side" winner against Kansas, but the Wolverines made all the big plays on both ends of the floor down the stretch in regulation and overtime. That's how they erased an 11-point deficit with less than four minutes to play against the Jayhawks. But Kansas coughed up that lead as much as Michigan erased it, committing three crucial turnovers in the final four minutes of regulation while Elijah Johnson missed the front end of the biggest one-and-one in the game and left the window open for Trey Burke to nail his NBA-range 3-pointer to send the game into overtime.

Now the Wolverines have to regroup and do it again against another top-notch foe. And this is one spot where coach John Beilein's youthful roster works against him. Freshman Mitch McGary is coming off the best game of his career, with 25 points and 14 boards against the Jayhawks. Fellow freshman Glenn Robinson III was outstanding as well, with 13 points, eight rebounds and three steals. And a third freshman, Nik Stauskas, also enjoyed his best game of the tourney. Two more freshmen -- guards Spike Albrecht and Caris LeVert -- routinely get significant minutes off the bench.

That's five freshmen in the Wolverines' nine-man rotation, and we're not talking about the Fab Five here -- none of these five will be drafted in the NBA lottery. The Wolverines' raucous celebration following their win over Kansas leaves them primed for at least a modest hangover.

In the column on the best national championship bets I wrote before the tournament started, I recommended a wager on Florida to win the national title. Nothing I've seen in that last two weeks has changed my opinion about the Gators' upside.

Florida's experience is a major factor in this game. Just about every key player in Billy Donovan's rotation played in the Gators' crushing Elite Eight loss to Louisville last season, a game in which the Cardinals overcame a double-digit deficit with only eight minutes to play to steal the game from the Gators. Kenny Boynton, Erik Murphy and Mike Rosario -- their three leading scorers -- are all seniors. Patric Young, Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather and Will Yeguete are juniors. Given that level of experience, don't expect Florida to choke away a late lead with the Final Four on the line for the second straight season.

The ATS pick: Florida*

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Goldsheet
★★★POWER RATINGS★★★

Louisville -4 over Duke
Florida -2 over Michigan

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★


★★★KEY RELEASES★★★

NEW YORK by 17 over Boston (Sunday, March 31

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CAPPERS ACCESS

Louisville

Michigan

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Sweetjones55

nba
Miami Heat +1.5

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HANDICAPPING KINGS

JIMMY

1* - [51] Chicago Blackhawks -110 vs Detroit Red Wings
1* - [713] Michigan OVER 132.5 -105 vs Florida
1* - [707] Miami Heat UNDER 198 -110 vs San Antonio Spurs
1* - [997] Texas Rangers -155 vs Houston Astros

PERRY (SOCCER)

SPAIN - LA LIGA

DEP LA CORUNA/RCD MALLORCA OVER 2.5 +105 (11AM)

CF VALENCIA/ATL MADRID OVER 2.5 -105 (3PM)

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DENVER MONEY

MLB Season Opener

1* Texas Rangers / Houston Astros - UNDER 8.5 -110
(Harrison vs. Norris must start for action)

Anyone looking at the sides in this game, I have a slight lean to Houston +1.5 -125.

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Rangers at Astros: What Bettors Need to Know

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (+155, 8.5)

The Texas Rangers had a disappointing finish to the 2012 season and were left out of all the big-name signings during the offseason, leaving a few question marks heading into 2013. The Houston Astros, who open their first year in American League play by hosting the Rangers on Sunday night, have a less positive outlook for the season. The Astros have finished with the worst record in the majors in each of the last two seasons.

Houston agreed to move over to the AL as part of the sale of the team and will be transitioning from one of the worst divisions - the National League Central - to one that should be one of the most hotly-contested in the AL West. Texas is one of three teams in the West that won at least 89 games in 2012 and the fourth club - the Seattle Mariners - boasts a strong pitching staff. One thing Houston won’t have to deal with in its opening series is Josh Hamilton, who left the Rangers for the rival Los Angeles Angels over the winter.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Matt Harrison (2012: 18-11, 3.29 ERA) vs. Astros RH Bud Norris (2012: 7-13, 4.65)

Harrison inherits the No. 1 spot from Colby Lewis, who got the opening day nod last season but will begin 2013 on the disabled list after undergoing arm surgery. Texas was reportedly in the mix for the top arm on the free agent market, Zack Greinke, but fell short on that bid and will instead hand things off to the All-Star Harrison, who is coming off his best season. The left-hander is 0-1 in four career games - two starts - against Houston but has never allowed a hit to any of the current Astros players he has faced, most notably Carlos Pena (0-for-8) and Chris Carter (0-for-7).

Norris takes over the mantel of No. 1 starter for Houston this season after the team aggressively traded away veterans last summer. The 28-year-old right-hander has averaged just under one strikeout per inning in his career but has never beaten an AL opponent, going 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA in three career interleague starts. Norris has never faced the Rangers but has been a stronger pitcher in his career at Minute Maid Park with a 3.51 ERA in 48 starts.

TRENDS:

* Rangers are 14-2 in Harrison’s last 16 starts during game one of a series.
* Astros are 4-17 in Norris' last 21 starts.
* Under is 4-1 in Rangers’ last five road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Astros’ last six home games.

EXTRA INNINGS

1. Texas is 19-5 against Houston over the last four seasons.

2. Only two players that started on opening day last season for the Astros - second baseman Jose Altuve and catcher Jason Castro - are expected to be in Sunday’s lineup.

3. The Rangers brought in former Houston star Lance Berkman in the offseason and are expected to slot the 37-year-old in at DH.

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Duke vs. Louisville: What Bettors Need to Know

Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 137)

Louisville is the final No. 1 seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament and looked unbeatable behind Russ Smith in the first three games. Making the Final Four is never easy, however, and the Cardinals will need to get through No. 2 seed Duke in the Midwest Regional Final on Sunday. The Blue Devils have not had much trouble in their trip to the Elite Eight, either, and like Louisville have plenty of experience going deep in the Tournament.

The Cardinals have won 13 straight games going back to the regular season and have lived up to the hype as the No. 1 overall seed thanks in part to a total of 81 points in three NCAA Tournament games by Russ Smith. Duke can match Smith and Louisville shot for shot with Seth Curry, who went for 29 points in the Sweet Sixteen win over Michigan State and is 10-for-20 from 3-point range in the Tournament. After being bounced by a No. 15 seed last season, the Blue Devils are trying to make their first Final Four appearance since winning the National Championship in 2010.

TV: 5:05 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT DUKE (30-5): Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski has not faced Louisville coach Rick Pitino in the NCAA Tournament since Christian Laettner’s historic shot against Kentucky in the 1992 Elite Eight ended one of the greatest college basketball games ever. Krzyzewski’s 2012-13 team is not quite the same, but it does have a plethora of scoring options. Curry was just the latest to take over for Duke after sharing the scoring load with Mason Plumlee in the opening game of the Tournament and letting freshman Rasheed Sulaimon take over in the third-round victory over Creighton. Sulaimon attacking the paint helped open things up for Curry to hit six 3-pointers in the 71-61 victory over the Spartans on Friday. All five starters scored at least 14 points the last time the Blue Devils faced the Cardinals, with Plumlee’s 16 points leading the way in a 76-71 win in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament on Nov. 24.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (32-5): The Cardinals were without center Gorgui Dieng in the November meeting with Duke, but Peyton Siva collected 19 points and six steals and Smith scored 17 to keep things close. Dieng is shooting 87.5 percent in the Tournament and should make things more difficult for Plumlee this time around. Louisville has won its 13 straight games by an average of 17.3 points but was sluggish in the Sweet Sixteen win over Oregon due to a cold virus making its way through the squad. Smith had the worst of it on Friday but still managed 31 points in the 77-69 win. Siva spent most of the game in foul trouble but backup point guard Kevin Ware went 5-for-7 off the bench in his place. The Cardinals are largely the same team that reached the Final Four last season, though Smith has taken on a greater role.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Blue Devils’ last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 7-0 in Cardinals’ last seven overall.

TIP-INS

1. The schools have not met in the NCAA Tournament since Louisville defeated Duke in the 1986 National Championship game.

2. Krzyzewski is attempting to reach his 12th Final Four, which would tie legendary UCLA coach John Wooden for the record.

3. Smith’s 81 points are the most ever for a Cardinals player in the first three games of the NCAA Tournament.

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Michigan vs. Florida: What Bettors Need to Know

Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators (-2.5, 131)

Michigan is part of the Elite Eight for the first time in 19 years while Florida is part of the festivities for the third straight season when the two squads meet in Sunday’s South Regional final at Arlington, Texas. The third-seeded Gators are attempting to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2007, when they won the second of back-to-back national championships. The fourth-seeded Wolverines are still alive due to an epic comeback to beat Kansas in overtime.

Michigan trailed by 10 points with less than three minutes left in regulation against the Jayhawks before Big Ten Player of the Year Trey Burke caught fire, scoring eight points in the final 75 seconds and forcing overtime with a 28-foot 3-pointer. “We love coaching him because he’s got courage,” Wolverines coach John Beilein said afterward. Florida ousted tournament favorite Florida Gulf Coast with strong defensive play that included 20 turnovers. The next task is ending the streak of two straight losses in regional title games. “It’s so hard just a win a tournament game, never mind advance,” Gators coach Billy Donovan said.

TV: 12:20 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT FLORIDA (29-7): The Gators lack superstars and the rotation is only eight players deep but anyone can emerge as the key player during any given contest. Senior guard Mike Rosario had 15 points against Florida Gulf Coast and is 10-of-19 from 3-point range during the tournament, while junior forward Casey Prather excelled off the bench with 11 points against the Eagles. “We wanted to come out and play with energy and help our team win,” Prather said of Florida’s strong bench contributions. “I think we did a great job of doing it. We made up our mind that we didn’t want to leave.” Rosario and senior forward Erik Murphy each averages 12.6 points. Senior guard Kenny Boynton chips in 12 points per game, junior center Patric Young averages 10.2 points and 6.3 rebounds and junior guard Scottie Wilbekin contributes 9.3 points and 4.9 assists.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (29-7): Freshman forward Mitch McGary has emerged as a star in the NCAA Tournament by averaging 19.7 points and 12.3 rebounds. McGary scored a season-high 25 points and matched a season best with 14 rebounds against the Jayhawks in just his fifth career start. “Coach has done a tremendous job of just allowing me for this opportunity to just get this many minutes, and be in the starting lineup,” McGary said afterward. “I’m honored to have it. He says if you play hard in practice, you’re going to earn these minutes.” McGary’s season averages are 7.3 points and a team-best 6.1 rebounds. Burke, a sophomore point guard, leads the Wolverines in scoring (18.9) and assists (6.9) and finished with 23 points and 10 assists against Kansas. Junior guard Tim Hardaway Jr. averages 14.8 points.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 10-2 in Gators’ last 12 overall.
* Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win.
* Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.

TIP-INS

1. Donovan has a 31-10 record in NCAA Tournament play and his .756 winning percentage is third among active coaches, trailing only Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski (.771) and Southern Methodist’s Larry Brown (.760).

2. The Wolverines haven’t won 30 games since compiling a 31-5 mark in 1992-93.

3. The winner faces either Syracuse or Marquette in the Final Four.

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NCAA's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Sunday's Elite Eight

Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. But we peel back Saturday’s Elite Eight matchups, looking for some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets this March.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida Gators (-2.5, 131)

Wolverines’ freshmen vs. Gators’ ability to create turnovers

Florida ousted Florida Gulf Coast with strong defensive play that included 20 turnovers. The Gators have forced an average of 16.3 turnovers in the tournament and reached elite status to their suffocating defense, which yields a mere 53.7 points per game on 38 percent field goal efficiency -- those last two figures ranking in the top-five nationally.

While Florida is loaded with seniors and NCAA tournament experience, the Wolverines have three freshmen in their starting lineup. Trey Burke and Co. showed they can handle the heat in their triumph over Kansas, but will truly be tested by the Florida defense Sunday. The Gators have been to this point in the tournament each of the last two years and could have the edge should the game come down to the wire.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 137)

Blue Devils’ ability to pull away quickly vs. Cardinals’ 3-point shooting woes

Duke can score in a hurry because of its accuracy from long range. The Blue Devils ranked fifth in the country in 3-point percentage (40.3) and have the edge when it comes to putting space between them and the Cardinals. Sharpshooter Seth Curry was 6-for-9 from beyond the arc in Duke’s win over MSU.

Louisville could have a tough time playing catch-up as they don’t fire from 3-point land nearly as well as Duke. The Cardinals ranked 217th in the nation in 3-pointers made per game (5.7) and have averaged just over four per game in the tourney. Louisville went 4-for-13 from long range in its win over Oregon in the Sweet 16 and relies more on its ability to score points off turnovers.

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Heat at Spurs: What Bettors Need to Know

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-1.5, 198.5)

The top two teams in the NBA meet up Sunday when the Miami Heat visit the San Antonio Spurs. The contest is huge in terms of the battle for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Miami currently has a two-game edge over San Antonio and would hold a commanding lead if it completes a sweep of the season series. The Heat have won 28 of their past 29 games while San Antonio has won six of its last seven.

The contest could be a prelude to June’s NBA Finals as both squads are the class of their respective conferences. San Antonio holds a 2 1/2-game edge over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference and has a 32-4 home mark. Miami recently had a 27-game winning streak halted and has won 14 of its last 15 road games. The Heat bounced back from a loss to the Chicago Bulls by downing the New Orleans Hornets on Friday. The Spurs downed the Clippers on Friday behind Tim Duncan’s decisive three-point play with 2.2 seconds remaining. Miami won the first meeting 105-100 on Nov. 29 when Spurs coach Gregg Popovich sent Duncan, and guards Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green back to San Antonio for rest.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, Sun Sports (Miami), Fox Sports Southwest (San Antonio), NBATV

ABOUT THE HEAT (57-15): Forward LeBron James put his outside shooting on display in the victory over New Orleans, knocking down seven 3-pointers – one shy of his career high. James made six consecutive 3-pointers in the first half and finished 7-of-10 from behind the arc while scoring 36 points. “I hadn’t done that probably since high school or the early years with Cleveland,” James said afterward. “I felt good. Just tried to keep the Heat wave going.” Miami shot a season-high 60.9 percent in the contest and was 14-of-27 from 3-point range.

ABOUT THE SPURS (55-17): Duncan scored a season-best 34 points against the Clippers and continues to play like someone much younger. The 36-year-old Duncan also grabbed 11 rebounds against the Clippers for his 31st double-double of the season and is averaging 17.6 points and 10 rebounds. “He’s done the work to put himself in the position to have games like this and to have the season that’s he had,” Popovich said afterward. “You couldn’t be more proud of the guy on what he did out there.” Point guard Tony Parker had 24 points against the Clippers and is averaging 21.8 points in four games since returning from an ankle injury.

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 8-1 in Heat’s last nine vs. Western Conference foes.
* Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four Sunday games.
* Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Heat is 2-22 when playing in San Antonio.

2. Ginobili injured his hamstring against the Clippers and will miss the Miami contest.

3. Miami PG Mario Chalmers (ankle) sat out the New Orleans game and is questionable to play against the Spurs.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Syracuse (-3 1/2) Saturday.

Sunday it’s Louisville. The deficit is 135 sirignanos.

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Baseball Crusher
Texas Rangers + Houston Astros OVER 8.5
(System Record: 2-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 2-1

Basketball Crusher
Florida -145 over Michigan
(System Record: 82-4, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 82-59-4

Soccer Crusher
Atl.Rafaela + Union Santa Fe OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 379-14, won last game)
Overall Record: 379-326-44