3-31-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goldrushcapping

MAR 31: SILVER TEXAS RANGERS
SILVER MICHIGAN +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Stoffo

Louisville -3.5

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JACK JONES

NBA Mar 31 '13 (7:05p)
Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio Spurs-1

15* Heat/Spurs Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Antonio -1

The San Antonio Spurs simply need this win more, and that's why I believe they'll get it. They lead the Oklahoma City Thunder by two games for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. They also trail the Miami Heat by two games for the No. 1 overall seed.

Miami has actually already clinched home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. That's why I look for it to take nights off down the stretch and check out mentally, especially after having its 27-game winning streak just recently ended.

San Antonio wants revenge from three straight losses to Miami in this series. All three of those losses came on the road, including a 100-105 loss at Miami on November 29th in their first meeting this season. The Spurs nearly pulled off the upset despite playing without Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Danny Green and Manu Ginobli in that contest.

The Spurs are 32-4 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.4 points/game. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Spurs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take San Antonio Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Florida -3 over Michigan

The Gators defeated the Cinderella Eagles by 12. They never led by more than 13 and they failed to cover by a point (depending on where you shopped it). They were in total control of that game after falling behind early and it seemed like they could’ve named the score. Watching it, you got the sense that something didn’t smell right. Every time the Eagles cut the lead to six or seven, which wasn’t often, Florida easily took it back up to 10 or 11 but not past 13. Despite dominating the boards and defense, the Gators margin hung around the 10-13 point range the entire second half. The Gators missed four out of five free throws in the final minute. It was such a disappointing loss (against the number) on so many levels but it sure isn’t going to deter us from coming right back on them here. Michigan got lucky against Kansas, plain and simple. The Wolverines were the “wrong side” that won. Aside from erasing an 11-point deficit with four minutes to go, the Wolverines needed Elijah Johnson to miss the front end of the biggest one-and-one in the game to leave the window open for Trey Burke to nail his NBA-range 3-pointer to send the game into overtime. Now Michigan has to regroup after that wild celebration, which has the Wolverines primed for at least a modest hangover. Against Kansas, the young Wolverines had the games of their lives and it’s highly doubtful they can repeat that. Freshman Mitch McGary is coming off his career game with 25 points and 14 boards. Fellow freshman Glenn Robinson III contributed with 13 points, eight rebounds and three steals. A third freshman, Nik Stauskas, also enjoyed his best game of the tourney. Two more freshmen -- guards Spike Albrecht and Caris LeVert -- routinely get significant minutes off the bench. That's five freshmen in the Wolverines' nine-man rotation and we're not talking about the Fab Five here, none of these five will be drafted in the NBA lottery. For the Wolverines, it’s over.

The Gators are truly beasts. Given the situation and considering all the talent, experience and intangibles, no matter how we break it down, we just can’t envision the Wolverines winning or covering this small price. Just about every key player in Billy Donovan's rotation played in the Gators' crushing Elite Eight loss to Louisville last season, a game in which the Cardinals overcame a double-digit deficit with only eight minutes to play to steal the game. Florida has had an easy road to this point, defeating Northwestern State, Minnesota and FCGU. They have barely broken a sweat yet. We saw what a bigger Kansas team did to the Wolverines for 36 minutes. It was a mismatch and you can be damn sure that Billy Donovan is going to dissect the tape of that game to his guys and exploit the Wolverines weaknesses even more. Once you are exposed, trouble is on the horizon. Kansas exposed the Wolverines and now the Gators will finish the deal against this spent underdog.

Louisville -3½ over Duke

The Blue Devils stock is soaring after they defeated the Spartans by 10-points. The Coach K, Tom Izzo matchup was close for the first half but the Dukies had a comfortable lead the entire second half where the outcome was rarely in doubt. Great win by the Blue Devils but we’re not buying into their dominance. It was just one of those games in which everything went ”not according to form”. Seth Curry hit six of nine tries from beyond the arc while coming within a single bucket of matching his season high in scoring. The Blue Devils hit 24 of their 26 foul shots, which was well above their 73% season average from the charity stripe. The Dukies also committed just seven turnovers, again, well below their season average and they avoided any semblance of foul trouble. Don’t bet on the stars being aligned perfectly again. The Dukies rotation lacks depth. Four of Duke's five starters played at least 36 minutes in that tough, physical contest against Michigan State and it certainly won't get easier against the country’s best defense. Duke's biggest weaknesses, limited depth, lack of low-post muscle and poor rebounding are all issues that Louisville can exploit.

The Cardinals were an 11½-point favorite over the Ducks so winning that game was expected. Of all the games up to this point this weekend, that Oregon/Louisville game had the lowest TV rating. In other words, Louisville hasn’t brought much attention to itself and that works in our favor with this beatable line. The Cardinals sometimes poor shooting during the regular season has been a nonfactor recently, hitting better than 50 percent of their shots over their last five games. It's also worth noting that Rick Pitino's depth works strongly in his favor in this matchup, as only Russ Smith and Gorgui Dieng played more than 25 minutes in Friday's win over Oregon.Duke won the first meeting between these two teams this season, a post-Thanksgiving matchup in the Bahamas. The Cardinals shot better than Duke, forced 14 Blue Devils turnovers, won the rebounding battle and dominated the offensive glass even without the injured Dieng but still lost the game. Duke got the calls, making 23 free throws compared to only nine for Louisville. We saw what Syracuse did to Marquette in the rematch game and we expect nothing less from the Cardinals. The partisan crowd in Indianapolis doesn't hurt either.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA DUNKEL

Miami at San Antonio
The Heat look to take advantage of a San Antonio team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Miami is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even.
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+1 1/2).

SUNDAY, MARCH 31

Game 701-702: Toronto at Washington (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 112.276; Washington 115.072
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 192
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+4); Over

Game 703-704: Cleveland at New Orleans (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 111.836; New Orleans 121.618
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 10; 188
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 6; 193
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6); Under

Game 705-706: Detroit at Chicago (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 110.184; Chicago 117.554
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 9; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+9); Over

Game 707-708: Miami at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.119; San Antonio 125.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 194
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 198
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+1 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Boston at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 115.482; New York 125.288
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 10; 191
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-6 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bank Shots: NBA Betting News & Notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of March 24-30

HOTTEST ATS

Utah Jazz (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS)

Utah has ripped off eight consecutive covers (4-4 SU) for bettors heading into Monday’s home game with Portland. The Jazz are in a dogfight with the Lakers for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference with only eight games to play.

COLDEST ATS

Portland Trail Blazers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

Portland’s postseason aspirations took a huge hit with four consecutive losses this past week. The Blazers were blown out by the Thunder, Nets, Jazz and Warriors and now face a must-win situation in Utah on Monday night.

BEST OVER PLAY

Chicago Bulls (2-1 SU, 3-0 OVER/under)

Chicago has been a good under play (32-38-1 O/U) all season long, but the Bulls have topped the total in three straight. The Bulls are averaging 101 points over the run – eight points higher than their season average (93 ppg). Chicago hosts the lowly Pistons Sunday before hitting the road for games in Washington and Brooklyn.

BEST UNDER PLAY

Denver Nuggets (1-2 SU, 0-3 over/UNDER)

Bettors have been cashing in on Denver’s ability to soar over totals all season long, but have taken a huge hit to the wallet over its past five games. The Nuggets faced an average total of 206.5 over a five-game under run, including a huge 221.5 total against the Kings on Mar. 23. Denver has a few days off before it visits Utah on Wednesday.

Scouting the schedule:

-The Philadelphia 76ers will play seven of their last nine games away from the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers have a 10-21-3 O/U record away from home.

-The Oklahoma City Thunder enter a brutal portion of their schedule next week. The Thunder will play five consecutive quality opponents, who have a combined 227-138 SU record this season. Oklahoma City kicks off the stretch of toughies Thursday when it hosts San Antonio.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +119 over PHILADELPHIA

The Flyers beat the Bruins in an afternoon game yesterday. They were lucky to do so in a game that was mostly played in Philadelphia’s end. The two points can be credited to Ilya Bryzgalov, as the netminder had a rare, spectacular game. For the Flyers, it was the same old, same old. They were the slower team on the ice and they were outplayed and outworked again. This year’s Flyers are one of the NHL’s weakest teams and the proof is in the pudding. Philly hasn’t won three games in a row the entire season. It has won two in a row just four times this year and it is 1-5 over its past six following a win. The Flyers are ahead of one team in the Eastern Conference, the Florida Panthers and they’re ahead of just two teams in the West, Colorado and Calgary. The Flyers gave already lost twice to the Panthers and have yet to play Colorado or Calgary. The inferior team here is favored in a game that at worst should be a pick-em.
Washington earned a well-deserved, 4-3 come from behind victory over the Sabres in Buffalo last night. Trailing 3-1 going to the third but dominating play the entire game, Washington stuck to its game, finally beat a hot Jonas Enroth for a couple of goals and won it in the shootout. The stats: Washington 38 shots and 23 scoring chances, Buffalo 23 shots and 9 scoring chances. It was the Caps sixth win in their past nine games with two losses over that span occurring against Pittsburgh and Boston. Washington is one of the strongest skating teams in the league and that’s a huge problem for the Flyers. What is most surprising about the Caps is they rank second in the NHL on the power-play with an eye-opening rate of 24.1% and they're eighth in the league in goals per game. The Capitals are getting stronger. They can pull into a tie for the eighth and final playoff spot with a win here. Bottom line is we’d much rather have our money on a team shooting up the standings, playing solid hockey and taking back a price as oppose to the inferior team, stuck in hell, laying one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash system
Extra picks
Boston Celtics +6.5 over the New York Knicks
Miami Heat +1 over the San Antonio Spurs
Florida -3 over Michigan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Uncle Harry

Duke +3.5
Michigan +3

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Xpertpicks

ncaab
Michigan +2 over Florida
Louisville -3.5 over Duke

nba
Miami -1 over San Antonio
New York -7 over Boston

nhl
Washington +145 over Philadelphia
Los Angeles +110 over Dallas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season Astros/Rangers.

That's right folks "Mr Chalk" is back.

For Sunday and the 1st game of the 2013 MLB season "Mr Chalk" likes a Dog????

The Astros +$135/Rangers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -107 over the Detroit Red Wings
(System Record: 38-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 38-29-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Points
NCAA ELITE 8
Arlington, TX


2:05 pm
**PREFERRED
Michigan over Florida by 7
"The way Michigan dismantled VCU's pressure has to make
you feel good about their chances vs. the Gators." That's
what it says in the main issue of Winning Points and yes,
it still does. Big Ten underdog, eh? Florida only wins
by double-digits. When they don't, they lose. Can anyone
see this Michigan squad losing by double-digits? Hard to
fathom, right? MICHIGAN, 70-63.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWER PLAY WINS

Power Play Of The Day

MLB Texas Rangers

(Harrison )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Remsen
cbb
Louisville -3.5