3-31-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, March 31

Rangers at Astros: What bettors need to know

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (+155, 8.5)

The Texas Rangers had a disappointing finish to the 2012 season and were left out of all the big-name signings during the offseason, leaving a few question marks heading into 2013. The Houston Astros, who open their first year in American League play by hosting the Rangers on Sunday night, have a less positive outlook for the season. The Astros have finished with the worst record in the majors in each of the last two seasons.

Houston agreed to move over to the AL as part of the sale of the team and will be transitioning from one of the worst divisions - the National League Central - to one that should be one of the most hotly-contested in the AL West. Texas is one of three teams in the West that won at least 89 games in 2012 and the fourth club - the Seattle Mariners - boasts a strong pitching staff. One thing Houston won’t have to deal with in its opening series is Josh Hamilton, who left the Rangers for the rival Los Angeles Angels over the winter.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Matt Harrison (2012: 18-11, 3.29 ERA) vs. Astros RH Bud Norris (2012: 7-13, 4.65)

Harrison inherits the No. 1 spot from Colby Lewis, who got the opening day nod last season but will begin 2013 on the disabled list after undergoing arm surgery. Texas was reportedly in the mix for the top arm on the free agent market, Zack Greinke, but fell short on that bid and will instead hand things off to the All-Star Harrison, who is coming off his best season. The left-hander is 0-1 in four career games - two starts - against Houston but has never allowed a hit to any of the current Astros players he has faced, most notably Carlos Pena (0-for-8) and Chris Carter (0-for-7).

Norris takes over the mantel of No. 1 starter for Houston this season after the team aggressively traded away veterans last summer. The 28-year-old right-hander has averaged just under one strikeout per inning in his career but has never beaten an AL opponent, going 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA in three career interleague starts. Norris has never faced the Rangers but has been a stronger pitcher in his career at Minute Maid Park with a 3.51 ERA in 48 starts.

TRENDS:

* Rangers are 14-2 in Harrison’s last 16 starts during game one of a series.
* Astros are 4-17 in Norris' last 21 starts.
* Under is 4-1 in Rangers’ last five road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Astros’ last six home games.

EXTRA INNINGS

1. Texas is 19-5 against Houston over the last four seasons.

2. Only two players that started on opening day last season for the Astros - second baseman Jose Altuve and catcher Jason Castro - are expected to be in Sunday’s lineup.

3. The Rangers brought in former Houston star Lance Berkman in the offseason and are expected to slot the 37-year-old in at DH.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, March 31

Best and worst MLB Opening Day bets

The baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. But it doesn’t hurt to get off on the right foot. The 2013 MLB schedule opens Sunday/Monday and we take a look back over the past 10 seasons to see which clubs come out swing and which one are still on spring break come Opening Day and Opening Week.

Records over the past 10 MLB seasons.

Best Opening Day bets

Los Angeles Angels – 8-2
Pittsburgh Pirates – 7-3
Baltimore Orioles – 7-3
New York Mets – 7-3
Seattle Mariners – 7-3

Worst Opening Day bets

Cleveland Indians – 2-8
Oakland Athletics – 2-8
Washington Nationals – 3-7

Best Opening Day home bets

Baltimore Orioles – 6-1
Los Angeles Angels – 5-1

Best Opening Day road bets

Chicago Cubs – 5-2
Pittsburgh Pirates – 5-1

Best Opening Day over bets

New York Yankees – 9-1 over/under
Cleveland Indians – 7-2-1 over/under
Milwaukee Brewers – 7-2-1 over/under

Best Opening Day under bets

Los Angeles Angels – 2-7-1 over/under
Texas Rangers – 2-6-2 over/under
Kansas City Royals – 4-6 over/under

Best Opening Day home over bets

Arizona Diamondbacks – 5-1 over/under
Miami Marlins – 5-2 over/under

Best Opening Day home under bets

Los Angeles Angels – 0-5-1over/under
Kansas City Royals – 2-4 over/under

Best Opening Day away over bets

New York Yankees – 6-0 over/under
Milwaukee Brewers – 5-1 over/under

Best Opening Day away under bets

Texas Rangers – 1-4 over/under
Oakland Athletics - 0-3 over/under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Sunday, March 31

April good month/bad month pitchers

Listed below are hurlers (and their team start record) that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of April. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in April team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts. To qualify, pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years.

I'll be back next month with May's Good Month/Bad Month Pitchers. Until then, let's play ball!

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates

April record: 9-4

Burnett pitched last year like he did before playing for the Yankees, much more relaxed and confident. Not every player is wired to play under the intense New York microscope. Burnett had more command with his fastball in the Steel City and his circle-change was brutal on left-handed hitters.

Kevin Correia, Minnesota Twins

April record: 10-5

Correia is a control pitcher and has to keep his below 90 mph fastball and cutter down in the zone to be successful. He will have the early advantage of not being widely seen in the AL and could get off to a hot start.

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies

April record: 12-4

March was not kind to Halladay, who suffered from a dead arm and a virus which cost him 10 pounds. But Halladay is a “gamer” and his repeatable delivery allows him to throw four different pitches for strikes. Expect the 35-year-old to answer the bell and help Philadelphia win early.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

April record: 10-4

Hamels is now the ace of the Phillies staff and his low-90s fastball lives at the bottom of the strike zone. The lefty is so effective because his changeup baffles hitters even today and it is a true swing-and-a-miss pitch, which helps him pile up victories.

Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers

April record: 11-3

Lohse recently signed a three-year deal with Milwaukee. His last two years in St. Louis saw him become successful by getting ahead of hitters, avoiding walks and using an improved slider to fan more batters. The Brewers hope his previous April successes and last year’s results continue.

Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins

April record: 10-4

Nolasco is the new ace in Miami and thrives by working both sides of the plate with his fastball. The righty compliments his heater with a split-change and is a bulldog on the bump.

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

April record: 10-5

Price is one of the elite left-handed pitchers in the game. His mid-90s fastball forces opposing teams to gear up for the heat and Price fools hitters frequently with a diving cutter or a power slider. If a hitter wants to sit on certain pitch, forget it, he’ll throw the change which moves away from right-handed hitters.

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

April record: 10-5

Few pitchers in the big leagues are as reliable and consistent as Sabathia. His durability is virtually unmatched in today’s game and he still can reach the mid-90s with complete command, moving the ball in and out or up and down. His slurvy breaking ball will often be his out pitch. The Yankees will certainly need their ace early with all the injuries.

James Shields, Kansas City Royals

April Record: 14-2

We are about to find out just how good Shields actually is after he made the move from Tampa Bay to Kansas City. The righty expertly locates his low-90s fastball and his change is so effective because the release point on this pitch is the same as his fastball, making it very deceiving. Can Shields lift his new teammates to his previous levels or does he sink to theirs?

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

April record: 12-3

While there are concerns about Weaver’s drop in velocity in 2012, he still won 20 games with his ability to add or subtract speed off the fastball. Batters are continually off-balance with his assortment of high-spinning sliders, slow curves and changeups. He always wants the ball in big games.

Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants

April record: 8-4

Zito was clutch in the postseason and was a key contributor to San Francisco’s championship run last season. The aging lefty no longer throws very hard, but last season had better overall control, making his looping curveball and changeup more effective. Zito should still contribute this year as a fifth starter.


BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays

April record: 4-11

Part of a blockbuster trade with Miami, Buehrle returns to the American League looking to resurrect his career at 34 in Toronto. The lefty has thrown 200 or more innings in each season since 2001, but his command is becoming less stable with age.

Ryan Dempster, Boston Red Sox

April record: 4-10

After spending his entire career in the National League, Dempster went to the American League and did little to help Texas last season, casting doubts about his potential success in Boston. Last year the 35-year-old infrequently topped 90 mph, as opponents started to sit on the slider and drove it. Though Dempster has experience in playing in a small park, can he be more than a .500 pitcher for the Red Sox?

Edwin Jackson, Chicago Cubs

April record: 5-10

Though he doesn’t turn 30 until September, this will be Edwin Jackson’s eighth different Major League team. His greatest attribute is durability, but he’s never found a home because of too many uneven starts over a season. Jackson did post a career strikeout rate in 2012, but playing for the Cubs will not improve his win percentage.

Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds

April record: 4-9

A notoriously slow starter, the Cincinnati right-hander’s career record in April is 2-8 with a 5.79 ERA. Once April was out of the way in 2012, Latos went 13-2 with a 3.09 ERA in his final 28 starts. Will he be able to clear the next hurdle in his career and pitch well early?

Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres

April record: 5-11

The Padres left-hander will put together a group of quality starts, giving hope he’s finally figured how to succeed only to inevitably fail again, frustrating himself and his team. What typically is Richard’s downfall is his inability to pitch inside to right handed batters, who swing too comfortably in the box.

Ervin Santana, Kansas City Royals

April record: 5-11

Santana is confident he can be the hurler he was before last season. To do so, he will be wearing a Kansas City uniform and no longer pitching in key contests like he did with Anaheim. After a disastrous first four months, Santana was pretty solid last August and most of September after fixing some mechanical issues. Which pitcher will the Royals see in 2013?

Joe Saunders, Seattle Mariners

April record: 4-10

The 31-year-old Virginia native is trying to keep up with Edwin Jackson, pitching for his fourth different team in four years with the move to Seattle. Saunders will start the year in the Mariners starting rotation and has good control, but his stuff would be best described as below average.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB DUKE at LOUISVILLE

Play On - Any team (DUKE) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% 1.8 units )

CBB DUKE at LOUISVILLE

Play Against - Neutral Court favorites vs. the money line (LOUISVILLE) after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games
20-12 since 1997. ( 62.5% 20.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.0 units )

CBB DUKE at LOUISVILLE

Play Against - Neutral Court favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LOUISVILLE) after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% 21.9 units )
11-8 this year. ( 57.9% 2.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA BOSTON at NEW YORK

Play Against - Road underdogs (BOSTON) good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games
79-39 since 1997. ( 66.9% 36.1 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NBA BOSTON at NEW YORK

Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW YORK) vs. division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite
55-12 over the last 5 seasons. ( 82.1% 32.4 units )
5-3 this year. ( 62.5% -0.5 units )

NBA BOSTON at NEW YORK

Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, on Sunday games
133-74 since 1997. ( 64.3% 51.6 units )
12-6 this year. ( 66.7% 5.4 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Around the Rink: Sunday's NHL Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Sunday’s NHL action:

Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings (+102, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Corey Crawford (CHI), Jimmy Howard (DET)

Chicago extended its winning streak against Detroit to five games on the strength of a 2-1 overtime victory on Jan. 27 and a shootout triumph by the same score on March 3. The Blackhawks placed Marian Hossa on injured reserve after the former Red Wing missed his last four contests with an upper-body injury. Hossa won't be alone as Patrick Sharp - who has been sidelined for nine contests with an upper-body injury – has been ruled out for Sunday's game. The under is 5-0 in the Red Wings’ last five vs. Central foes.

Anaheim Ducks at Columbus Blue Jackets (+123, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Jonas Hiller (ANA), Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ)

Columbus has points in its last 11 games at Nationwide Arena (8-0-3) and sits one point behind St. Louis for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Ducks still hold a comfortable lead atop the Pacific Division, but have one victory in their last five games after snapping a skid with a 2-1 win at Chicago on Friday. Anaheim has scored seven goals over its last five games and is 1-for-21 on the power play in its last 10. The under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Columbus.

Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars (+101, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Jonathan Bernier (LAK), Kari Lehtonen (DAL)

Los Angeles has won eight of its last 10 visits to Dallas but just one of its last six overall games against the Stars. The road team has won five in a row and is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings between the division rivals. The over is 6-0 in the Kings’ last six road games.

Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers (-129, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Michal Neuvirth (WSH), Ilya Bryzgalov (PHI)

The Capitals have been making themselves at home on the road, winning their last four contests by a 15-6 margin. Philadelphia snapped a four-game winless streak (0-2-2) with a 3-1 triumph over Boston on Saturday afternoon. The Flyers have converted on their last five power-play opportunities and the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres (+139, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Anton Khudobin (BOS), Ryan Miller (BUF)

The Bruins have lost two straight and five of six away from home, and are just 2-4-1 overall in their last seven contests. Buffalo looks to end its three-game winless streak and notch its third win in four meetings with Boston. Each of Buffalo's last six contests and 14 of its last 16 were one-goal decisions. The Sabres are 0-7 in their last seven Sunday games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PAUL LEINER

100* Louisville -3.5

50* Over 198 - Heat/Spurs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE SPORTS--JASON WEEDS
Astros+147
Louisville-3.5
Michigan+2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps
cbb
Michigan +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

marc lawerence

mich

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Don Best Consensus

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
Pick: Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. The Celtics are also 31-14 ATS in their last 45 Sunday games. The road team in this series is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Play the Celtics.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3* Duke +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Morgan

Cbb

Florida -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN 1000*

Louisville -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essler:
BYU+3.5, double dime