4-5-13

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The Philly Godfather

My Moves

• MLB Phillies 100: -135

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Bryan Rosica
100 Dime
WICHITA STATE

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Sports Wagers/Sherwood


Yesterday 3 2 0.00 +3.20
Last 30 Days 7 11 0.00 -7.08
Season to Date 7 11 0.00 -7.08

Kansas City +118 over PHILADELPHIA
John Lannan makes the switch from Washington’s Nationals Park and a great infield defense to Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park and a much lesser infield defense. Neither will work in Lannan’s favor. Lannan spent the majority of 2012 sputtering in Triple-A Syracuse, where he posted a 4.30 ERA in 24 starts with an ugly 86/50 K/BB. Lannan's only plus skill is his groundball tendency, which, combined with dashes of hit % and strand % fortune, have allowed him to out-pitch his xERA in each of his six major league seasons. There's nothing in his skill set that suggests long-term success but there’s plenty that suggests he’s going to implode at this park. Despite his good fortunes, Lannan still sports an ugly 1.51 WHIP in 64 starts over the past three years. This past spring, Lannan posted a 7.71 ERA in 21 innings over five starts. Those hard hit groundballs that were not finding holes in Washington will surely find them at this unforgiving park. The Phillies are 1-3 and the only reason they have one win is because Cliff Lee was able to shut down the Braves when the Phillies scored just two runs. They couldn’t win with Roy Halliday, Kyle Kendrick or Cole Hamels starting and with that awful pen, chances are they’re not going to win with this stiff going.

The Royals have evened their record to 2-2 and have to be feeling pretty good after pounding out 19 hits yesterday in a 13-4 bashing of these Phillies. K.C. had just 17 hits in its previous three games in Chicago. It’s also worth noting that the Royals bullpen didn’t allow a single hit after Wade Davis gave up nine hits and four runs in the first four innings. Should this game be decided by the pens, one has to give a significant edge to the Royals. Luis Mendoza wasn’t terrible last season and that's saying a lot when you look at his history. 2H is where it all clicked, but even then he was only marginal. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and say Mendoza has breakout potential because he does not. His skills are mediocre and while his GB tendency offers a building block, it didn't help him all that much in '08 when he posted similar skills. It’s hard to see a path out of mediocrity for Mendoza but this isn’t about wagering on him. This wager is all about fading John Lannan, the Phillies bullpen and a struggling club that looks completely out of sync. The Royals bats woke up yesterday and Lannan is not likely to put them back to sleep. Play: Kansas City +118 (Risking 2 units).

Arizona +115 over MILWAUKEE
The Diamondbacks are 3-1 and while it’s still early, we’d much rather be playing a team that’s won three of four and taking back a price than spotting a tag with a club that’s 1-3 and that has lost three straight. Losing is not easy to shake off, especially early in the year when losing can dig a hole that’s difficult to get out of. Mike Fiers (RHP - MIL) emerged as one of the NL's surprises in 2012 due to his quality off-speed stuff and deception in his delivery, but there are two things that make a repeat highly unlikely. His 88 mph fastball gives him very little wiggle room, especially as NL hitters adjust to his off-speed pitches. Second, his below average 8.3% swinging strike rate is correlated with the Aug-Sept beating he took (6.12 ERA, 1.6 hr/9). Fiers 2012 groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 33%/28%/39% screams disaster. Fiers had a horrible spring too, pitching 19 frames and allowing 29 hits, 15 earned runs and walking eight for a spring ERA of 6.98. To suggest that Fiers is unappealing as the chalk would be an understatement.

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Chase Diamond

8* Chicago White Sox +1.5

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Today's NBA Picks

Indiana at Washington

The Wizards look to take advantage of an Indiana team that is coming off a 97-75 loss to Oklahoma City last night and is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a double-digit home defeat. Washington is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, APRIL 6 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 801-802: Indiana at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 122.568; Washington 121.019 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 188 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 184 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Over

Game 803-804: Philadelphia at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 116.782; Miami 126.471 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 9 1/2; 185 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 805-806: Charlotte at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 105.721; Brooklyn 126.038 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 20 1/2; 199 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 14 1/2; 196 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-14 1/2); Over

Game 807-808: Detroit at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 107.642; Minnesota 121.060 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 13 1/2; 192 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 6; 197 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6); Under

Game 809-810: Atlanta at San Antonio (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 114.331; San Antonio 125.411 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 11; 188 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 193 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-7 1/2); Under

Game 811-812: Toronto at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 111.348; Milwaukee 115.313 Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4; 207 Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 6; 202 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+6); Over

Game 813-814: Houston at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.437; Denver 129.417 Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7; 209 Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 212 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6); Under

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Sports Network:

SYRACUSE + PTS

Syracuse 66, Michigan 64

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Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Saturday, Apr 6 2013 4:05PM
ML 972 TEX (-118) BetOnline vs 971 ANA double-dime bet

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Todays Best Bets

(5 UNITS) Wichita State +10.5

(5 UNITS) Michigan -1.5

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Around the Rink: Saturday's NHL Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Saturday’s busy NHL slate of games:

Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets (-121, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Steve Mason (PHI), Ondrej Pavelec (WPG)

The Jets will carry a five-game losing streak into Saturday afternoon's matchup with the red-hot Philadelphia Flyers, a skid that has caused them to lose their stranglehold on the Southeast Division and put them on the outside of the postseason picture. Winnipeg is 0-for-16 on the power play during its five-game skid - the franchise's longest since dropping five in a row in March 2010. The under is 12-2 in the Jets; last 14 home games.

Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators (+117, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Ray Emery (CHI), Pekka Rinne (NSH)

Chicago, which won 3-0 at Nashville on Feb. 10 and defeated the Predators 3-2 in a shootout on Monday, is 11-0-1 against division opponents after dropping a 4-3 shootout decision to St. Louis on Thursday. The Predators have one win in their last five games (1-2-2) and find themselves at the bottom of the division facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs. The over is 4-0 in the Blackhawks’ last four road games.

Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings (-176, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Devan Dubnyk (EDM), Jonathan Quick (LAK)

Edmonton had its five-game winning streak snapped with a 4-0 loss at Vancouver on Thursday in the opener of a four-game road trip. The Oilers had been on an offensive rampage prior to the shutout, piling up 25 goals during their five-game run. Jonathan Quick is expected to get the start for the Kings. He's 8-1-4 lifetime against Edmonton. The under is 4-0-1 in the Kings’ last five home games.

Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens (-111, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Tuukka Rask (BOS), Carey Price (MTL)

Montreal, which holds a one-point edge over its Original Six rival, has won two of the three meetings. The teams benefited from third-period uprisings to split the first two contests before defenseman Andrei Markov scored to forge a tie with nine seconds remaining and rookie Brendan Gallagher tallied in the sixth round of the shootout as the Canadiens claimed a 6-5 win on March 27. Boston netminder Tuukka Rask is just 2-7-2 in his career versus the Canadiens, but owns an impressive 61-33-13 mark against the remaining NHL teams. The under is 5-0 in Montreal’s last five home games.

Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils (-121, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: James Reimer (TOR), Martin Brodeur (NJ)

Toronto will be without left wing Joffrey Lupul, who suffered an upper-body injury in Thursday's loss. The Maple Leafs are 3-0-2 in their last five meetings with the Devils. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders (-122, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Ben Bishop (TB), Evgeni Nabokov (NYI)

The New York Islanders continue to steam toward what could be their first postseason appearance since 2007, gaining points in six of their last seven games. New York has had its way with Tampa Bay of late, winning both meetings this season and eight of 11 overall. The Lightning improved to 3-0-1 in their last four games after newly-acquired goalie Ben Bishop turned aside 45 shots in a 5-0 victory over Carolina on Thursday. Tampa Bay got captain Vincent Lecavalier back from injury in its last game, but top-pairing defenseman Victor Hedman is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. The Islanders are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.

New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes (-110, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Henrik Lundqvist (NYR), Justin Peters (CAR)

Carolina has lost three straight and is 1-9-1 in its last 11 contests. The Hurricanes’ last victory against the Rangers was a 4-1 triumph on Jan. 20, 2011. Carolina is 0-4-2 versus New York since then, including a 2-1 shootout loss at MSG on March 18. The under is 9-2-1 in the Hurricanes’ last 12 overall.

Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers (+112, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Braden Holtby (WSH), Jacob Markstrom (FLA)

The Capitals, who are 6-1-1 in their last eight games, have won six straight contests against Florida. Washington F Alex Ovechkin has torched the Panthers, recording 57 points (27 goals, 30 assists) in 46 career contests. The Capitals are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. Southeast opponents.

Colorado Avalanche at Phoenix Coyotes (-152, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Semyon Varlamov (COL), Mike Smith (PHX)

Phoenix has gone 3-0-2 following a six-game winless stretch that included three consecutive shutout losses. Colorado is coming off a 3-2 overtime loss to Detroit at home on Friday. The setback dropped the Avalanche to 1-6-1 in their last eight games and kept them in the league's basement with 29 points. The Avalanche have won only two of the last 11 overall games in the all-time series - and one of the last eight contests in Phoenix. The under is 4-0-1 in Colorado’s last five games overall.

Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks (-265, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Miikka Kiprusoff (CGY), Cory Schneider (VAN)

Calgary had its road winless streak reach 12 games with a 2-1 setback to the Sharks in San Jose on Friday. The Flames are 0-11-1 on the road since posting a 4-3 win over the Phoenix Coyotes on Feb. 17. Since trading long-time captain Jarome Iginla to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Calgary has gone 0-4-0 and has been outscored 20-8 in the process. The home team has won each of the last six games in the all-time series.

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DOC SPORTS

4-unit Play Take #952 Cincinnati Reds (-115) over Washington Nationals (1:10pm ET)

The Washington Nationals are everyone's favorite World Series pick in 2013, and with good reason. They are probably the most complete team in the major leagues and feature some of the most exciting young players that the game has to offer. With that being said, in the betting markets we're looking for value. You're rarely going to find it with a team like Washington as all of their accolades are already accounted for, and the value is often times on the other side. We have a situation like that today where the Cincinnati Reds are not getting enough respect at home with a more favorable pitching matchup. Ross Detwiler is a crafty left-hander that has quietly put up pretty good numbers in his career. However, the Reds crush left-handed pitching and especially at home. On the other side is right-hander Mike Leake. He wasn't supposed to crack the Reds rotation, but with Aroldis Chapman returning to his closer role, Leake was inserted into the fifth slot. Leake was disappointed that he originally wasn't going to be in the plans for a rotation spot, so I think he'll come in with a chip on his shoulder early on in the season proving that he belongs. The Reds won 15-0 against the Nats yesterday, and I think we'll see how carry over today as the Reds cruise again.



4-unit Play Take #961 San Diego Padres (+130) over Colorado Rockies (8:10pm ET)

The Colorado Rockies have an awful starting rotation this season. But no matter how bad it gets, resurrecting Jon Garland from the dead just doesn't seem like a wise decision. Garland has only made nine starts since the end of the 2010 season as he's battled injuries and ineffectiveness. I give him credit for trying to make a comeback and persevering, but he picked the wrong place to make it happen. Garland is a fly ball pitcher that pitches to contact. Those are two qualities that don't translate well in Coors Field - the site of his 2013 debut. It could get really ugly for the veteran, so the Colorado bullpen better be ready. Pitching for San Diego is former A's starter Tyson Ross. He had a very tough year in 2012 with Oakland, but a lot of that to do with an abnormally high BABIP and strand rate. He's a groundball pitcher and that should suit him well today. We should see plenty of runs in today's contest, but I like the Padres to score more of them. Take San Diego in this spot.

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ACCUSCORE SOCCER

Written by Shahan Ahmed

Director’s Football Pick of the Week

(1) Queens Park Rangers to win at 2.420 over Wigan Athletic
QPR is deep in the relegation battle, and Harry Redknapp’s Rangers army may not have enough to beat a top side, but even this shambolic side can win at home against a fellow relegation contender. I was clear to say that they can win, not that they will win. However, the computer feels quite strongly that Queens Park Rangers will win.

The computer favors QPR to win by an average score of 2-1. Further, Rangers won 57 percent of the 10,000 simulations. With bookies calculating 40.5 percent value on a QPR win based on public odds, there is value on this pick. Also with the payoff at 2.42, this a good return on investment. Sure, take ‘Arry and Queens Park Rangers.

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RightSideValuePlays

NBA

Indiana -3.5

FINAL FOUR CBB

Syracuse +2

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Sean Higgs

10* Louisville

Taking LOUISVILLE here. Great season and run by Wichita State. They worked and beat good teams getting here. Pitt, Gonzaga, Ohio State. The weak link in the run, LaSalle. Now they are facing UL. Louisville is a different animal. Missouri Valley has some tough teams, and defenses. But they haven't met a team like this. The Cards press is absolutely ferocious. We saw what the did to Syracuse in the Big East Championship. Down 13 at half, 16 at the 15 minute mark. They crank it up to go on a 29-4 run, then stretch it to 44-10! Down 13, win by 17. That is something else. They have shot over 50% every game here in the NCAAs. Duke was a pretty decent team. They stymied Cook and Sulaiman into a terrible 4-21 day from the field. Curry and Kelly were both 3-9. People forge this Shockers team had to replace its top 5 scorers from last year. They have gotten this far, but I think they are really running into a juggernaught here. UL is 10-1 ATS last 11. They have 1 loss the last 18 games. A 5 OT game at ND. Plus they are now playing for their fallen teammate, Ware, and his injury. This team was the overall 1 seed for a reason. I think Wichita will be 'shocked' here. UL on a mission. Including the Big East Tourney, in these 7 tourney games, UL has outscored teams by 19 (Nova), 12(ND), 17(Syracuse), 31(NCAT), 26(ColSt), 8(Oregon) and 22(Duke). If this game is closer than 15 I will be the one who is shocked. MONEY-BOMB 10* on LOUISVILLE

5* Under Mich/Syr

Going UNDER the total here. I mentioned the UL defense and stingy press in my other write up. Well hello Syracuse zone. This defense might not bring the thunder like UL, but it does some damage. This NCAA tourney they have been a hammer coming down on a nail. They allowed 34 points to Montana. A whopping 60 to Cal who had a pair of decent guards who could score. Muzzled mighty Indiana to 50. (who only averaged 79 during the year) Then said to Marquette, oh, you beat us 74-71 at home getting tons of friendly calls. Well try beating us scoring 39! Clearly, the defense is clicking. On to Michigan. We know they can score. But the defense has shown its face all tourney. Allowing 56 to SDST, 53 to VCU and 59 to Florida. There was the OT Kansas game 87-85. I can't see that happening here. This one has all the makings of a game in the teens. BEST BET 5* UNDER Michigan/Syracuse

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Dave Essler | MLB Total

double-dime bet

978 HOU / 977 OAK OVER 8 5dimesAnalysis: Reasoning to follow. Doubt this stays at "8". OK, first things first. The roof should be open here, and this is an over venue with the wind blowing straight out. The downside is that neither pitcher has much exposure to the opposing lineups, but the A's are flat out hitting and the Astros simply won't get shut down by Colon. At least not this early in the season, when pitch counts are limited. Let's not forget that the Astros are now in the AL and have a DH as well. The 'Stros pen is typically horrible, and the A's pen gave it up last night.

Pick Made: Apr 6 2013 7:11AM PST

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Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line
double-dime bet955 STL (+121) BetOnline vs 956 SFG
Analysis:The Giants have won three straight after getting shut out in their opener by Kershaw. Their offense is struggling, averaging only 2.25 runs per game and are 1-for-16 with men in scoring position so far this season. This is a great spot for St Louis.
The Cardinals are a very profitable 14-2 as a 110-plus AWAY DOG vs a team that has won at last their last three games and it is not the first game of a series. The SDQL text is:
team = Cardinals and A and 110<=line and 3<=o:streak and SG>1 and date>=20070530
Note that the Cards are 5-0 their last five in this spot.
In addition, St Louis is solid in this revenge spot, going 14-6 as a dog when seeking revenge for a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits, including a perfect 2-0 last season.
Young Shelby Miller pitched very well late last season and has performed well in spring training. With their starters pitching so well, we expect the Giants to be playing "small ball" here and this should give Cardinals the opportunity to end the Giants' streak.
MTi's FORECAST: St Louis 4 SAN FRANCISCO 3


Pick Made: Apr 6 2013 6:50AM PST