4-5-13

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Paul Leiner:
500* Over 191 Pacers/Thunder
100* Over 8 Brewers/Dbacks
100* Phillies -125
50* George Mason -2

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Hondo

Welcome to the Hondo Financial Wellness Center. Mr. Aitch rewarded his devotees and himself yesterday by correctly forecasting a Padre victory at the big Citi, but the Braves were overmatched against Cliff Lee last night so the wad shrunk ever so slightly to 95 burdettes.

Tonight, he is carin’ about Haren — 10 units on the Nats bats to bash Bailey.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Memphis at LA Lakers

The Lakers look to take advantage of a Memphis team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against a team with a winning record. LA is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-2). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, APRIL 5 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Miami at Charlotte (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 122.983; Charlotte 111.864 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 11; 188 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5; 193 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5); Under

Game 503-504: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 114.645; Atlanta 122.630 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 8; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 192 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Milwaukee at New York (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.189; New York 129.423 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 13; 199 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 7 1/2; 204 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (-7 1/2); Under

Game 507-508: Cleveland at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 112.592; Boston 116.632 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 4; 207 Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 7; 202 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+7); Over

Game 509-510: Toronto at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.276; Minnesota 114.073 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 4; 202 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 197 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+6 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Orlando at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 109.980; Chicago 121.802 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 12; 186 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 191 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Oklahoma City at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 124.536; Indiana 130.405 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 188 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 192 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-2); Under

Game 515-516: New Orleans at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.191; Utah 124.601 Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 9 1/2; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 192 Dunkel Pick: Utah (-8 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: Houston at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.188; Portland 120.710 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 2 1/2; 210 Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 5; 207 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5); Over

Game 519-520: Dallas at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 116.057; Sacramento 120.411 Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 4 1/2; 210 Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 214 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1 1/2); Under

Game 521-522: Golden State at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 121.064; Phoenix 111.431 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 9 1/2; 200 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 8; 204 Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-8); Under

Game 523-524: Memphis at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 118.003; LA Lakers 123.545 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 199 Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2; 195 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-2); Over

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JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | Apr 05 '13 (4:05p) Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies -122 at 5dimes
15* MLB Friday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Phillies -122 The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as a small home favorite over the Kansas City Royals today. This is a team that is undervalued heading into the season coming off a sub-par 81-win season in 2012. Many people believe that the Kansas City Royals are going to be better this season, but I'm not one of those people. However, they are overvalued as a result. They are off to a poor start, scoring a combined 5 runs while losing two of three to the Chicago White Sox in their opening series. Kyle Kendrick is one of the most underrated starters in the game, and he's the reason why the Phillies will have arguably the best rotation in baseball this season. Kendrick has gone 54-42 with a 4.30 ERA in his career, including 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 2011, and 11-12 with a 3.90 ERA in 2012. The Royals traded for James Shields and Wade Davis this offseason. It was great to get Shields, but Davis was basically a throw-in. This guy has never posted better than a 4.07 ERA in a full season as a starter in the big leagues. The Phillies are 51-23 in their last 74 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Philadelphia is 9-2 in its last 11 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Royals are 2-9 in their last 11 road games. Kansas City is 16-35 in its last 51 interleague games as an underdog. Bet the Phillies Friday.

MLB | Apr 05 '13 (4:35p) St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals +115 at 5dimes

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +115 The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated heading into this series with the San Francisco Giants. I look for them to win Game 1 today because of it. The Cardinals want revenge from losing to the Giants in the NLCS in 2012. In fact, St. Louis had a 3-1 lead before losing the final three games of that series while not scoring a single run in the process. It's payback time in Game 1 today folks. St. Louis is having no problem at the plate in the early going, scoring a combined 17 runs in a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks to open the season. San Francisco, meanwhile, was held to a combined 8 runs in its opening series with the Dodgers. I believe the Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Jake Westbrook over Barry Zito, who is getting way too much respect in the early going after coming through clutch in the postseason last year. I believe Zito's performance was more of an aberration, because this guy has been terrible for a few years now. In six years with the Giants, Zito has gone 58-69 with a whopping 4.47 ERA. He hasn't finished with better than a 4.03 ERA in any of his six seasons in a San Francisco uniform. Westbrook went 13-11 with a 3.97 ERA for the Cardinals last season. The Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 games following an off day. St. Louis is 4-1 in Westbrook's last 5 starts vs. National League West. Westbrook has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his four career starts against San Francisco. St. Louis is 20-7 against the money line in road games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Take the Cardinals Friday. NBA Basketball Premium Picks NBA | Apr 05 '13 (6:35p) Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers Houston Rockets -4½-110 at BetOnline 15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4.5 While the Houston Rockets have a lot to play for down the stretch, the Portland Trail Blazers have zero to play for at this point. With that in mind, I'll back the Rockets as a small favorite over the Blazers tonight in Portland. Houston (42-33) sits 1.0 game behind Golden State for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Whoever gets that seed will avoid having to face San Antonio and Oklahoma City in the first round, which is huge. The Rockets have been playing well down the stretch, winning three straight over the Clippers, Magic and Kings heading into this one. That includes a 98-81 victory over the Clippers on March 30th. Portland (33-42) is virtually eliminated from postseason contention, and it has been playing like it over the last few weeks. The Blazers have clearly packed it in, losers of six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process. In fact, all six of Portland's losses during this skid have come by double-digits. They were beaten by the Thunder (83-103), Warriors (98-125), and Jazz (102-112) on the road, and the Nets (93-111), Jazz (95-105) and Grizzlies (76-94) at home during this losing streak. Houston beat Portland 118-103 in its last meeting on February 8th, and the Blazers are coming off that 76-94 home loss to Memphis. That's important considering this play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points. Take the Rockets Friday. -= TOP PLAY =- NBA | Apr 05 '13 (6:35p) Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Lakers -2½-110 at bodog 20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 Oddsmakers are giving us an absolute gift with the Los Angeles Lakers as only a small home favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. At 39-36 on the season, the Lakers would be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs if the season were to end today. However, Los Angeles is just 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz, so it cannot afford to take a night off from here on out. Adding to the motivation for the Lakers is the fact that they've lost the first two meetings of the season to the Grizzlies, both of which were at Memphis. This is a great spot to back the Lakers considering they will be coming in on two days' rest having last played on Tuesday in a huge 101-81 home win over the Dallas Mavericks. They were without Steve Nash in that game, and they likely will be again tonight, which isn't a big deal at all. In fact, this team has arguably been better without Nash on the floor. It forces Kobe Bryant to become a facilitator, and he did just that against the Mavs. Bryant posted a triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. Los Angeles is 23-7 in its last 30 home meetings with Memphis. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Bet the Lakers Friday. NBA | Apr 05 '13 (10:05p) Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns Phoenix Suns +8-109 at 5dimes 15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +8 The Golden State Warriors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as an 8-point road favorite over the Phoenix Suns. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Suns, who have played their best basketball at home this year. Phoenix is 16-22 at home this season, and Golden State is 17-21 on the road. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate, which is the reason for backing the Suns at a great price tonight. The Suns will be out for revenge after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Warriors. That includes an 85-87 home loss on October 31st in their lone home meeting. Meanwhile, Golden State will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team it has already beaten three times. I like the Suns' chances for revenge tonight considering they are an amazing 28-5 SU in all home meetings with Golden State dating back to 1996. In fact, their five home losses during this stretch have come by two (87-85), two (106-104), ten (110-100), nine (92-83) and eight points (103-05). That makes for a 30-2-1 ATS angle backing the Suns since 1996. Roll with Phoenix Friday. [ back to top ] College Basketball Premium Picks -= TOP PLAY =- NCAA-B | Apr 06 '13 (8:45p) Michigan vs Syracuse Syracuse +2½-110 at SIA 20* Michigan/Syracuse Final Four No-Brainer on Syracuse +2.5 I have been backing both Michigan and Syracuse throughout the NCAA Tournament with a lot of success thus far. Now, it's time to pick between the two, and I have no problem doing so considering this match-up really favors Syracuse. I believe the length of the Orange across the board is going to cause Michigan fits offensively, just as it has for every other team they have faced. In fact, Syracuse has held its first four opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 45.8 points/game. Syracuse held the almighty Indiana Hoosiers to just 50 points on 34.0% shooting, and a good Marquette team to just 39 points on 22.6% shooting the past two rounds. Its defense is going to be the difference in this game. Most people believe that playing a zone defense means that you're forcing your opponent to try and make 3-pointers to beat you. Well, that's not the case for this Syracuse team, which defends the 3-ball as well as anyone in the country. The Orange only allow their opponents to make 28.2% of their 3-point shots on the season. That's huge because Michigan is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the land at 38.5%. The Orange held Indiana, another great 3-point shooting team, to just 3-of-15 (20%) from distance. Jim Boeheim is 28-13 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick as the coach of Syracuse. The Orange are 24-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Syracuse is 58-35 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days since 1997. The Orange are 8-2 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season. They are winning in this spot by 23.7 points/game. Bet Syracuse Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoopsgooroo 4/5

[916] Detroit Tigers -180 vs New York Yankees
[918] Texas Rangers -120 vs Los Angeles Angels
[929] Kansas City Royals +108 vs Philadelphia Phillies
[901] San Diego Padres +135 vs Colorado Rockies
[903] St. Louis Cardinals +111 vs San Francisco Giants
[922] Toronto Blue Jays -165 vs Boston Red Sox
[924] Tampa Bay Rays -164 vs Cleveland Indians
[907] Washington Nationals +115 vs Cincinnati Reds
[923] Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5 -110 vs Tampa Bay Rays
[911] Arizona Diamondbacks +122 vs Milwaukee Brewers
[928] Chicago White Sox -138 vs Seattle Mariners

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Sweetjones55
Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Half -3.5

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Sports Pickin

MLB:

San Diego / Colorado Under 11.5 Runs
Milwaukee ML

NBA:

Oklahoma City +3

NHL:

San Jose PL

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Betting Line Moves MLB

Arizona +124

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The Delawarian

BetThisPick

2* Cadinals/Giants UNDER 7.5

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Kyle Hunter

MLB	Apr 05 '13 10:10p	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers Take: Total 7 ov-104		in 10h
*3 Star TGIF MLB Play of Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates have decided to take a chance on Jonathan Sanchez this year. Sanchez was awful last year for both Kansas City and Colorado. Sanchez had a 9.53 ERA in Colorado and a 7.56 ERA in Kansas City. The problem with Sanchez is his control is horrible. He can't locate the zone in crucial parts of the game, and he misses his location inside the zone a lot as well. Zack Greinke had an ERA above 5.5 this Spring. Greinke was beat up pretty good by the Pirates in his only start against them last year. A total of 7 is usually indicative of a couple Aces against light hitting teams. In this one, we get a total of 7 with two pitchers with big question marks. I like the value here on the over. Take the over.

-= TOP PLAY =-

NBA	Apr 05 '13 10:05p	Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns Take: Total 198 ov-110		in 10h
*5 Star NBA TOP Play Total Domination* The Phoenix Suns have really started to push the tempo of late, and the oddsmakers haven't been able to catch up to them. Lindsay Hunter's team is putting up shots quickly, and they aren't playing much defense at all. How bad has the Suns defense been? Phoenix has given up at least 112 points in 5 of their last 9 games. That's a ridiculously high number, and a team like Golden State is capable of scoring 115 or 120 on Phoenix. Golden State shoots the three ball as well as anyone in the league, and Phoenix gives up lots of open looks. The over is 9-2 in Golden State's last 11 against the Western Conference. The over is 5-1 in the Suns last 6 games. I made this one 207 points. Take the over big! *Note- This total has moved up steadily since I grabbed it on the open Thursday. I would play this one all the way up to 205 points*

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Tampasports sharp move - detroit/yankees - under total 8 runs

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The Philly Godfather:
NBA Pacers 250: ML
MLB Detroit Tigers 1/half $200: 1H -1/2 -120

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xpertpicks 4/5

ncaab:
Santa Clara +1 over George Mason

nba:
Utah -9 over New Orleans
Golden State -7.5 over Phoenix

nhl:
San Jose -255 over Calgary
St. Louis -165 over Columbus

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Teddy Covers

10* Blue Jays -1.5

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Marc Lawrence NBA

Portland