4-20-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jdwarriors5 / Sharky Sports

Clippers to win series (-162) over Grizzlies- This is one of my favorite series bet of the first round and I think the fair odds in this one should be more in the -220 to -250 range. Anyone who remembers this match-up from the playoffs last year should remember Memphis leading going into nearly every 4th quarter, only to blow lead after lead and ultimately lose on their home court in game 7 to the Clips (including a historical 28 point lead blown in the fourth quarter of game 1). Well, not surprisingly, the main reason I love the Clips to win this series here comes down to 4th quarter efficiency.

Efficiency down the stretch in close games is one of the most important factors come playoff time, and what we are looking at in this match-up is an enormous discrepancy. Clippers are the #1 ranked team in the NBA in terms of average 4th quarter MOV (margin of victory) at +2.2. Let’s compare this to the Grizzlies who are ranked a terrible 23rd in the NBA with an average 4th quarter MOV of -0.7. What this tells us is that we have an extremely efficient 4th quarter team (one of the most efficient in the entire league) in the Clippers against a team in the Grizzlies who on a given night will lose the 4th quarter battle. Looking a little deeper into these stats, this discrepancy is even bigger than it initially looks because the Clippers have played a significantly stronger strength of schedule (-0.33, 20th in the NBA) in the regular season than the Grizzlies (-0.84, 27th in the NBA), so the Clippers are destroying better teams in the 4th quarter and the Grizzlies are losing to worse teams.

There has to be some reasons for this blatant statistical discrepancy, so let’s add a little subjective analysis. First off, Chris Paul is arguably the best 4th quarter point guard in the entire league. Personally, if I had to choose one point guard to run my team in the last 5 minutes of a game, it would hands down be Chris Paul. Not only does his driving ability and his incredibly low turnover percentage put tremendous pressure on defenses, but he is historically one of the “clutchest” players in the entire league year in and year out. As a testament to this clutch factor, let’s look at his 4th quarter stats from last year. Chris Paul ranked 2nd in the NBA in total 4th quarter points with 369, ranked 1st in the NBA in 4th quarter PER (player efficiency rating) with an astonishing 38.7. Chris Paul is an absolute animal down the stretch of close games. However, it does not just stop there. This entire Clippers team is extremely efficient in 4th quarters, and a lot of this has to do with their veteran leadership. The Clippers are the 3rd oldest team in the NBA with an average age of 29.4, and with Chris Paul leading a group of very talented veterans combined with young, fresh high flyers, this team is extremely dangerous and should have no trouble in the first round.

On the other hand, the Grizzlies are even worse in 4th quarters this year than they were last year. At least last year they could rely on a late bail-out shot by Rudy Gay during their stagnant possessions, but without him this season they’ve relied solely on kicking the ball into Gasol and Randolph down low. To back up this claim, the Grizzlies are dead last in the NBA in the percentage of points that come from 3 (only 15% of their total points), which directly indicates that they have a very strong inside-out philosophy. While it is possible to achieve success with this strategy, they would have to do so against one of the best defensive front-courts in the NBA. Anchored by Griffin and Jordan, the Clippers are ranked 7th in the NBA with 5.6 blocks per game and 8th in the NBA with total rebounding percentage at 51.2%. The Grizzlies are going to have to play from the perimeter and get out of their comfort zone of pounding it inside in order to beat the Clippers over the course of a 7 game series.

Overall, this is a very bad match-up for the Grizzlies even outside of the 4th quarter. The Grizzlies rely first and foremost on their solid defense, however they’re playing a team in the Clippers who are extremely efficient with the basketball (ranked 6th in the NBA with a 1.6 assist/turnover ratio). They couldn’t get it done last year against the Clips with home-court advantage, and now we’re looking at an improved Clips team, a worse Grizzlies team, and home-court advantage to the Clips. This is a no brainer here. Even if the Grizzlies outplay the Clippers for 3 quarters in most games, I expect history to repeat itself here. In high pressure, playoff type situations, I love backing veteran teams who know how to grind out tough wins down the stretch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANDRE GOMES

NBA - 701 Boston Celtics @ 702 New York Knicks
Projected Line: 186 points
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) Under 190 @ -115

NBA - 703 Golden State Warriors @ 704 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: Denver by 4 points
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) Golden State Warriors (+8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

What Bettors Need to Know

Celtics at Knicks, Bulls at Nets

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (-6.5, 190)

Carmelo Anthony won the league's scoring title and is in the discussion for the MVP award, but the superstar forward has a more pressing goal entering the postseason. Anthony has led his teams past the first round of the playoffs only once, and he will attempt to double that number when the No. 2 seed New York Knicks host the Boston Celtics on Saturday in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series. New York won the season series, 3-1.

While the Knicks were white-hot at the end of the season, winning 13 straight and 15 of 16 before Anthony and other key players took the final two games off, Boston staggered down the stretch. The Celtics dropped 11 of their last 16 while stars Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce took turns sitting out and trying to get healthy. Two of the losses - both by double digits - were against the Knicks in a six-day span last month. Boston won at New York in January, a game that ended with Anthony trying to confront Garnett before he boarded the team bus.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE CELTICS (41-40): Garnett (ankle) sat out 10 of the last 13 games, including the two losses to New York in late March. Given that he's Boston's most reliable source of offense among its big men and the team's best interior defender, his health is paramount for the Celtics. Pierce, who likely will be matched up against Anthony, missed three of the last eight games with his own ankle issues. He has also directed the offense at times after point guard Rajon Rondo suffered a season-ending knee injury in late January. Forward Jeff Green has assumed a larger offensive role since Rondo's injury and scored a combined 46 points in the last two meetings with the Knicks.

ABOUT THE KNICKS (54-28): Anthony bounced back from a knee injury in March with a torrid April, becoming the first player to score at least 35 points in six consecutive games. He averaged 25.3 points in four games against Boston but also put up 103 shots and connected on only 34.9 percent. Sixth man J.R. Smith was also magnificent during the 13-game run, putting up five 30-point games during that span, including 32 in a 100-85 victory at Boston on March 26. The Knicks received great news when ailing center Tyson Chandler pronounced himself 100 percent healthy for the playoffs. The 2011-12 Defensive Player of the Year had missed 16 of the last 20 games with a neck issue.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in Celtics’ last five overall.
* Celtics are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Knicks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Atlantic foes.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. New York's 54-28 record is the best by the franchise since 1996-97.

2. Boston, which has only one win over a .500 team since March 8, has advanced past the first round of the playoffs in each of the last five seasons.

3. The Knicks signed F Quentin Richardson earlier in the week. He has had altercations with both Pierce and Garnett in the past.

Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets (-4.5, 181.5)

The Brooklyn Nets have made a stunning transition since departing New Jersey and will open their first playoff series in six years when they host the Chicago Bulls on Saturday. The Eastern Conference series opener is the first major professional sports playoff game held in Brooklyn since the 1956 World Series, when the Dodgers played at Ebbets Field. The Bulls are playoff regulars, making their fifth straight appearance despite being without Derrick Rose the entire season.

Chicago has dealt with a series of injuries while playing well enough to land the fifth seed. The Bulls feel all the hurdles have prepared them for the postseason. “We’ve been thought a lot,” center Joakim Noah said. “We’ve been through a lot. There were a lot of distractions. There was a lot of adversity. A lot of injuries. Regardless of what was thrown at us, we fought hard through it all.” The fourth-seeded Nets had to convince point guard Deron Williams that the franchise was ready to rise to keep him in the offseason and now feel primed to win a series. “It’s good for us – the first season in Brooklyn to be in the playoffs,” Williams said. “That was the goal, and we accomplished that goal. But we’ve still got a ways to go.” Chicago won three of the four regular-season meetings.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, Comcast SportsNet Chicago, YES (Brooklyn)

ABOUT THE BULLS (45-37): Chicago overcame the loss of Rose, who suffered a major knee injury in last season’s playoffs, to again be part of the postseason. Noah has been bothered with injuries and was laboring down the stretch but plans to gut it out in the playoffs. “During the game, he feels fine,” Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said. “I think he’s hopeful that he’ll get better and better as we go along. It’s the type of injury where he’s going to have to try to manage it as best as he can.” Chicago was third in the NBA in scoring defense (92.9) and will attempt to slow the pace against the Nets. Boozer averaged 21.3 points and 10.7 rebounds in three games against Brooklyn this season.

ABOUT THE NETS (49-33): Shooting guard Joe Johnson struggled against Chicago’s pesky defense and averaged just 13 points. Williams averaged 19.8 points and 6.8 assists against the Bulls while center Brook Lopez averaged 22 points. This version of the Nets might be new to the postseason but they feel they can make an impact. “I think we know how good we can be,” Brooklyn interim coach P.J. Carlesimo said. “We’ve had the roster intact at different times. We just need everybody healthy. The playoffs are a different animal – everything starts over.” Power forward Reggie Evans is a difference-maker on the boards and has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in each of his last 18 appearances.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Nets’ last five overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Bulls’ last six road games.
* Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Three of the four regular-season meetings were decided by four or fewer points. Chicago won the other contest by 11 points.

2. Bulls C Joakim Noah (foot) has suffered a setback and is doubtful for Game 1.

3. The Nets last won a playoff game on May 16, 2007, when they beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

What Bettors Need to Know

Warriors at Nuggets, Grizzlies at Clippers

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets (-7.5, 210.5)

The Denver Nuggets are on the shortlist of NBA title contenders due in part to their overwhelming homecourt advantage. The Nuggets will put that advantage to the test when they host the Golden State Warriors on Saturday in the opener of a first-round playoff series. Golden State had to battle until the last few minutes of the regular season to secure the No. 6 spot but enters the playoffs with little experience. The Nuggets will have their depth tested in the first round.

Denver lost leading scorer Danilo Gallinari for the rest of the season to a knee injury earlier this month and fierce rebounder Kenneth Faried went down with an ankle sprain in the final week. The Nuggets are listing Faried as questionable for Saturday but might need to have a backup plan for keeping David Lee off the boards. The Warriors had their own injury scare when Andrew Bogut went down with a sprained ankle, but the big man returned for the season finale on Wednesday and should be in the starting lineup for Game 1. Bogut’s presence in the paint is essential on the defensive end.

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Altitude (Denver)

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (47-35): Golden State is heading to the playoffs for the first time since 2007 and Bogut is the only starter with any postseason experience. Veterans like Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry and Richard Jefferson will come off the bench to support first-timers Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Lee. The Warriors have survived all season by playing an up-tempo pace that stops at the 3-point line, where Curry set the single-season record for made 3-pointers with 272. Thompson finished third in the league with 211 3-pointers and Jack offers a third reliable option from deep, which opens space on the inside for Lee to operate. Lee was the lone All-Star representative but Curry has taken over in the second half of the season and is becoming a star. The lanky point guard hit 11 3-pointers in a game at Madison Square Garden in February and knocked down nine at Los Angeles on April 12 to make his run at Ray Allen’s record possible over the last two games. Staying in front of Denver’s guards on defense, or at least forcing them to move toward Bogut in the middle, will be the big test for Curry in the series.

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (57-25): Denver went 38-3 at home and could probably match Golden State 3-point attempt for 3-point attempt if it wanted. Instead, the Nuggets force the pace and get all the way to the rim. Faried is one of the team’s best finishers in the paint but certainly not the only one. Faried went out three minutes into a win over Portland on Sunday and Denver still averaged 116 points in its final three contests, including the date with the Trail Blazers. The Nuggets will go 10 or 11 players deep with or without Faried and Gallinari and will use their altitude and depth to wear out the Warriors in the first two games. Denver took both of the meetings at home in the regular season by 11 points apiece. Curry went for 29 points in the last meeting on Jan. 13 but the Nuggets had nine players score at least eight points and outscored Golden State in the paint 58-32.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Pacific foes.
* Over is 4-0 in Nuggets’ last four overall.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Lee led the NBA with 56 double-doubles, becoming the first Warriors player to lead the league in the category since Wilt Chamberlain in 1963-64.

2. Denver took three of the four meetings during the regular season, with the lone setback coming at Golden State on Nov. 29, 106-105.

3. Curry has hit 56.3 percent of his 3-point attempts in 12 career games against the Nuggets.

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 178)

The Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies engaged in a hard-fought playoff series last year and the Western Conference first-round series between the two teams should be just as competitive this time around. Game 1 is Saturday in Los Angeles between two clubs that each won 56 regular-season games to set franchise marks for victories in a season. The Clippers won the season series 3-1. Last season’s playoff series went seven games with Los Angeles prevailing.

The fourth-seeded Clippers won their last seven games while fifth-seeded Memphis won nine of its last 11 games. The Grizzlies win with defense and the Clippers are familiar with what looms. “We know that team very well,” guard Chauncey Billups said. “They’re going to play hard. They want to out-execute you. They want to pound you and rebound and throw it to their bigs inside and we’ve just got to be ready for them.” Memphis center Marc Gasol minimized the payback aspect of facing the Clippers. “We want to win,” Gasol said. “We want to win four games. We want to get into the second round. It is not about revenge.”

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Fox Sports Tennessee (Memphis), Prime Ticket (Los Angeles)

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (56-26): Memphis held an NBA-best 71 opponents under 100 points and led the NBA in scoring defense at 89.3 points per game. The Grizzlies are the first team to hold opponents under an average of 90 points since the 2005-06 campaign, when both Memphis and San Antonio did so. Gasol averaged 16.8 points and nine rebounds against the Clippers this season and power forward Zach Randolph averaged 14.8 points and 12 rebounds. Point guard Mike Conley has the tough task of dueling with All-Star Chris Paul. That didn’t go so well in the four regular-season meetings, when Conley shot just 30.2 percent while averaging 10.3 points and 5.8 assists.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (56-26): Paul averaged 16.3 points and 8.7 assists in three games against Memphis. Sixth man Jamal Crawford had 29 points in one of the victories but had just two points on 1-of-10 shooting in Los Angeles’ lone loss. He averaged 14 points against the Grizzlies. Power forward Blake Griffin had some struggles against Randolph while averaging 13.8 points and seven rebounds. Los Angeles would like to get a big series from center DeAndre Jordan, who shot 65.5 percent against the Grizzlies while averaging 9.5 points and seven rebounds. Los Angeles topped 100 points against Memphis in one of the four games and scored 99 in another.

TRENDS:

* Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies’ last 10 overall.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The teams split the two regular-season meetings at the Staples Center.

2. Memphis went 24-17 on the road this season, the first time the franchise has ever posted a winning mark.

3. The Clippers set a franchise mark with a 32-9 home record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Bulls
Yankees
Astros

[Can'tPickAWinner]

English Breakfast: Premier League Betting Notes

Massive fixtures at the bottom of the table on Saturday and heavyweight battles for Champions League places at the top of the table headline the weekend's EPL lineup:

Saturday

Fulham (10th place, 40 points) v Arsenal (4th, 60) +400 +280 -150
Site: Craven Cottage
Previous league result: Arsenal 3, Fulham 3, November 10

Fulham has allowed 11 goals in its past 10 league matches, after allowing 40 in the previous 23 games. Arsenal has collected 10 points in its last six road games, after collecting 16 points in its previous 10.

Norwich (14th, 35) v Reading (20th, 24) -138 +275 +350
Site: Carrow Road
Previous league result: Reading 0, Norwich 0, November 10

Norwich has collected three points in the past six matches and is only four points above the regulation zone. Reading has scored four goals in the past eight matches and hasn't scored more than one in a match since February 2.

QPR (19th, 24) v Stoke (16th, 34) +125 +225 +225
Site: Loftus Road
Previous league result: Stoke 1, QPR 0, November 10

QPR has scored 10 goals in the past six matches, after registering 19 in its previous 27 league games. Stoke is 20th in the Premier League form table, collecting only one point out of the past 21.

Sunderland (15th, 34) v Everton (6th, 56) +240 +225 +120
Site: Stadium of Light
Previous league result: Everton 2, Sunderland 1, November 10

Sunderland hasn't won at home since January 12, going 0-3-2 in that stretch. Everton has allowed three goals in the past six matches.

Swansea (9th, 41) v Southampton (12th, 38) +130 +240 +210
Site: Liberty Stadium
Previous league result: Southampton 1, Swansea 1, November 10

Swansea midfielder Michu has scored four goals in his past 10 league appearances after depositing 13 goals in his previous 20 games. Southampton has collected 11 points in the last six matches, after collecting 27 points in its previous 27 matches.

West Brom (8th, 44) v Newcastle (13th, 36) +125 +230 +220
Site: The Hawthorns
Previous league result: Newcastle 0, West Brom 1, November 11

West Brom has the 17th-best home form in the league over the past six games. Newcastle has lost four straight away from home.

West Ham (11th, 39) v Wigan (18th, 31) +120 +240 +220
Site: Upton Park
Previous league result: Wigan 2, West Ham 1, October 27

West Ham has lost only once in the past six games (2-3-1). Wigan has collected 10 points in its past six matches, after collecting only 21 in its previous 26 games.

Sunday

Tottenham (5th, 58) v Manchester City (2nd, 68) +210 +250 +125
Site: White Hart Lane
Previous league result: Manchester City 2, Tottenham 1, November 11

Six of Tottenham's last seven games have gone over 2.5 goals. Manchester City has collected more points, 15 out of 18, in the past six games than any team in the league.

Liverpool (7th, 50) v Chelsea (3rd, 61) +110 +240 +240
Site: Anfield
Previous league result: Chelsea 1, Liverpool 1, November 11

After 16 of Liverpool's last 18 league games went over 2.5 goals, its last two games have gone scoreless. Chelsea strikers Demba Ba and Fernando Torres have scored a combined nine goals on 88 shots in the league this season for Chelsea.

Monday

Manchester United (1st, 81) v Aston Villa (17th, 34) -400 +500 +900
Site: Old Trafford
Previous league result: Aston Villa 2, Manchester United 3, November 10

Manchester United has dropped only six points at home in 16 matches. Aston Villa has scored 10 goals in the past five games after scoring 26 goals in the previous 28 games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's Streaking & Slumping Starting Pitchers

Major league pitchers have enough starts under their belts to pick out which arms are streaking and slumping to start the season. Each day we’ll look at the hottest and coldest pitchers taking the mound.

Streaking

Paul Maholm, Atlanta Braves (3-0, 0.00 ERA)

Maholm hasn’t allowed a run through three starts and has racked up 20 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings. The Braves have been providing plenty of run support for the southpaw, outscoring the opposition 20-2 in his starts to date.

Ervin Santana, Kansas City Royals (1-1, 2.45 ERA)

The hard-throwing righty has gone eight innings in each of his last two starts, while only being touched up for two earned runs in the process. The Royals have played under the total in each of this three outings.

Slumping

Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays (1-0, 7.31 ERA)

The soft-tossing lefty earned his first win as a Blue Jay last time out but surrendered two earned runs on nine hits. The veteran southpaw carries a hefty 7.31 ERA and 1.75 WHIP into his next start against the Yankees.

Jarrod Parker, Oakland Athletics (0-2, 10.80)

Parker was lit up for eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings last time out against the Tigers. The right-hander hasn't survived more than five innings in each of his three starts and has been touched up for 19 hits in just 11 2/3 innings pitched.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays - RAYS TO WIN (-125)
Listed Pitchers: Parker vs Hellickson
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.60 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports Series Plays (all odds from BetOnline):

2-Unit Play #883 Take Golden State +565 over Denver
Denver has been hit hard by injuries down the stretch, and you just feel like this team is reeling a bit coming into the playoffs. The Warriors can get hot shooting the ball anytime, and they can beat any team any night. Golden State played well enough to win both games at home (they lost one in OT), and we think there is an opening for them to steal one in Denver. If Denver has any more injury problems this could have even more value. Just don't think this number reflects the true odds of the Warriors to win this series.

4-Unit Play #885 Take Chicago +145 over Brooklyn
We think there is a lot of value in this line. The Bulls have lots more playoff experience than the Nets, and they have a much better defense. The Nets have played well on defense at times, but this team is schizophrenic at times, and we think the Bulls are more consistent overall. Chicago won (and covered) two of three meetings this season. While the Bulls Achilles Heel is an offense that is pretty inept at times, the same can be said for Brooklyn, and the Bulls play better defense. And strong defense is what the playoffs is all about. Love the underdog price for what we think is very even matchup (only because the Nets have home court).

4-Unit Play #888 Take LA Clippers -165 over Memphis
While many are looking at the Grizzlies as an upset pick, we are just not seeing it that way. The Clippers were very impressive down the stretch, and they have won seven straight heading into the playoffs, making them the hottest team in the West. They have the experience of beating this team last season, and Memphis had home-court in that series. This is a better Clippers team this season, and we just think they are a step above the Grizzlies despite their similar records. LA beat this team three of four times this season, including both games in Memphis, and they have won six of the last nine matchups between the teams. No doubt they should be able to steal one of more in Memphis, and we think they will hold court at home. We think this one will be much shorter than the series last year as this one goes six games max.

2-Unit Pick #889 Take Atlanta +485 over Indiana
Neither team has played well to finish out the season, and we just think this series is very much closer than the oddsmakers expect. Very much worth it to take a shot on this underdog price. The Hawks were one of the most inconsistent and frustrating teams to handicap this season. They could look great against the best in the league then they could stink it up against the worst. But they did split their season series with Indiana, and there are no other teams other than the Knicks and Heat in the east we really trust to advance out of the first round. This Indiana team just doesn't inspire us much right now, and we could see the Hawks playing their normal season M.O. and rising to the occasion in this series. This is a close one that should go the distance, and we think the price is right here to take a shot on the underdog.

1-Unit Pick #891 Take LA Lakers +1200 over San Antonio
We were hoping that this was the matchup that happened instead of the Lakers-OKC, and we think that LA has a real chance here. You know the NBA wants the Lakers to advance over the ?boring? Spurs (at least the general public finds them boring, although I do not). The Lakers might get the benefit of some calls, and they played great down the stretch and are seeming to vibe with their coach, and even though Kobe is out, this team still has Dwight Howard, who was a playoff factor with worse teams than he is on now. And the Spurs are one injury away from this being a real close series. The Spurs have not looked as good down the stretch as they did last season (nowhere close), and we think this line is a huge obverreaction to the Kobe injury and that this line should be closer to -600. This is worth it to take a shot on the Lakers at these long odds.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NBA SERIES PRICES

2 Unit Play. Take Chicago Bulls +120 over Brooklyn (Best of Seven Game Series)
Yes I know the Bulls have been injury prone all season long but the Bulls should have Noah, Gibson, and Hamilton for this series. Bulls played really good on the road this season and if the Bulls can steal one road game in this series I believe the Bulls can win this series in 6-7 games. Chicago has won 3 out of 4 games this season over the Nets and again the Bulls were pretty much short-handed all 4-games.

4 Unit Play. Take Los Angeles Clippers -160 over Memphis (Best of Seven Game Series)
If you are looking for a hard fought 7-game series then this series is your series. Should be outstanding series and the reason why we like the Clippers in 7-games is because of the depth on the bench. The Clippers can go easily 9-10 guys every night and if this series goes 6-7 games which I believe the Clippers bench wins this series. CP3 will also be the main factor in this series and if the Grizzlies can slow down CP3 this series could end quickier. The Clippers won 3 out of 4 games this season over Memphis and the Clippers won 2 games in Memphis.

3 Unit Play. Take Golden St Warriors +370 over Denver (Best of Seven Game Series)
Denver had some late injuries in the season and if Curry gets on shooting the 3-ball for the Warriors he could easily carry Golden St to the next round. If the Nuggets were healthy I probably would pass on this 7-game series but with Golden St winning their last 2-games and again if Stephen Curry can score at will the Warriors will advance to the next round.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Penguins at Bruins: What Bettors Need to Know

Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins (-135, 5.5)

The Atlantic Division champion Pittsburgh Penguins look to lock up the top seed in the Eastern Conference when they visit the Boston Bruins on Saturday. The teams were originally slated to play on Friday, but the game was postponed as authorities conducted a manhunt for one of the suspects involved in the Boston Marathon bombing. The bombings near the finish line of the Boston Marathon killed three and wounded more than 180 on Monday. The game's official starting time will be formalized no later than 8:30 a.m. on Saturday, the league announced.

Pittsburgh, which was originally slated to play Buffalo on Saturday, will host the Sabres on Tuesday. The Penguins are riding a five-game winning streak but will likely be without Evgeni Malkin for the third straight contest as the reigning Hart Trophy winner nurses a shoulder injury. The Bruins are coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Buffalo Sabres in an emotionally charged game at TD Garden on Wednesday. Despite the setback, the Bruins clinched a playoff spot by earning one point. They trail the Montreal Canadiens for first place in the Northeast Division by two points even though they are winless in their last three contests (0-2-1).

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, NHL Network, ROOT Sports (Pittsburgh), NESN (Boston)

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (33-10-0): A new address has done wonders for Brenden Morrow. Since being acquired from Dallas, the veteran left wing has recorded five goals and nine points in 10 games with Pittsburgh after registering six tallies and 11 points in 29 contests with the Stars. Jarome Iginla also has contributed since arriving from the Calgary Flames, collecting two goals and four assists in eight games. Jussi Jokinen has notched three tallies and five points in five contests since being obtained from the Carolina Hurricanes.

ABOUT THE BRUINS (26-11-5): Milan Lucic may be a healthy scratch Saturday as the left wing continues to struggle offensively. Lucic has recorded just one goal and one assist in his last seven games and has tallied only twice in 27 contests. "I haven't decided that yet," coach Claude Julien said regarding Lucic's status. "We can support him and give him opportunities, but at the end of the day, you have to be able to step up there. And he knows he's not. That's not a secret."

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in Bruins’ last eight vs. Atlantic foes.
* Under is 5-1 in Penguins’ last 6 vs. Northeast foes.
* Bruins are 0-4 in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
* Penguins are 5-0 in the last five meetings in Boston.

OVERTIME

1. Pittsburgh has won five straight games in the all-time series, three of which were one-goal decisions, and seven of eight.

2. The Penguins are the only team in the league without a shootout or overtime loss. They are 2-0 in overtime and 3-0 in the shootout.

3. Boston has dropped five straight home meetings with Pittsburgh.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEAM DOC SPORTS

5-unit Play Take #2 Boston Bruins (-130) over Pittsburgh Penguins . With only five games remaining in the regular season, the Pittsburgh Penguins have pretty much wrapped up the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference after beating Montreal the other night. They've clearly been the best team in the conference this season with the best goal differential by far, but they have some key injuries right now. Their two superstars, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, are out as well as James Neal and Paul Martin. Those are four of their very best, and going up against the Boston Bruins you need all of the firepower you can get. The Bruins are still fighting for the Northeast Division crown as well, so they won't be holding back tonight. They've also lost to the Penguins five straight times and they're well aware of it. It would be a huge confidence boost to win this game and go into the playoffs knowing that they are beatable in a series.
Take Boston in this spot tonight as our 5-unit Game of the Week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INDIAN COWBOY

7-Unit Play. #2. Take Boston -135 over Pittsburgh
The city of Boston has gone through a lot. Maybe the Bruins were looking ahead in their last game or were just too emotional in general. Regardless, they are in a great spot to end their three game losing streak. Boston has lost both games vs. Pittsburgh this season by one goal. The Bruins out-shot Pittsburgh 32-18 but lost 2-1 on 3/17/13. The Penguins are really banged up and have nothing to play for right now. Pittsburgh has scored 15 goals in their last three games and now travel to Boston. Note that Boston has the better defense, better penalty kill and will likely have a huge edge on face-offs. Note that Pittsburgh has beat this team the last 5 times they have played as well and the Bruins are likely fed up and tired of losing to this team the past two years. Pitt has won the last 5 games overall but I suspect they have such little to play for here whereas Boston is looking to get back its footing. Boston rarely loses it seems and you tack that on with the last 3 straight losses, the onus is on Boston to win this game and to win against a quality foe to boot. Boston has yet to lose 3 straight this season and this is as good opportunity as any to step up with a victory at home today. The Bruins are 8-3 in their last 11 home games in general and 11-5 in their last 16 games when they face a team with a winning road percentage of greater than 60% on the road (better teams in the league).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

Cliff Notes Saturday Baseball

Miami at Cincinnati: Haven't been right on the Reds for most of my life, but simply can't see them beating Miami, especially with a left handed pitcher (LeBlanc) on the mound. Because LeBlanc CAN be solid and the Reds haven't seen much of him, I could see taking the ever-dangerous Reds under. Otherwise, probably can only use the Reds in a parlay.

Washington at NY Mets: Gio opened the season with two gems, but against the Cubs and the White Sox, two teams that either cannot hit or were not hitting at the time. Then of course he gets manhandled by the Braves, and this is his first road start. This would be the Mets second game back after a tough road trip, so I might make a case for them. But, since Hefner had to throw an inning the other night and Washington has hit him, and we trust neither bullpen, we'll look hard at this over.

St. Louis at Philadelphia: Tough to fade Cliff Lee and his 0.68 WHIP in his first three starts, which is clearly why the Phillies are -150 or more and the only reason, IMO. Lynn has been terrible in two road starts this season, and maybe lost too much weight in the off season. I suspect that the Phillies are the right side here, but can't justify laying that price against a team with the potential to score like the Cardinals. Night game, chilly, and the wind blowing in, so I can only consider the under at this point. However, with the ineptness of the Cardinals pen, the Phillies may well get them all, the issue there is that when the home team is favored and "probably" going to win, you're losing an at bat in the ninth.

Atlanta at Pittsburgh: Tough also to fade Maholm and his 0.79 or so WHIP and shitload of ground ball outs in his three starts this season. Two of those starts were on the road as well. Historically the Pirates have not been great against LHP, and this season has been no exception. They are hitting .158 against LHP and are 0-4 in four starts against left handed starters.

Arizona at Colorado: Cahill is a fade at home, and has typically been a play-on on the road. I thought perhaps he'd have issues at Coors, but he really doesn't have much exposure there at all. Almost regardless, if the D-backs do have a weakness it may be against LHS as they are 2-4 against them, as opposed to 7-2 against right handed starters. This will be De La Rosa's first start this season at Coors Field, and before his injury he really didn't pitch an worse there than anywhere else.

San Diego at San Francisco: There is simply no chance of taking Lincecum against anyone at that number. He may well be 3-0 but his WHIP is 1.56 and his ERA is 5.63. But, of course the only two Padres with any real success (Headley and Quentin) won't be playing. Richard is bettable at home, and although his W/L record is reasonable against the Giants, his stats at AT & T aren't great. I can make a reasonable case for the over, if it looks like Timmy might be off, but the Giants pen at home has been much better than on the road, as you would expect.

Yankees at Toronto: Kuroda over 111 pitches in the last two starts, which is an issue for me, especially if the Yankees bullpen is used much on Friday. And he has not pitched well at the Rogers Centre. If Buerhle had shown much of anything this would be an easy call to take the Jays, and at this point all I do know is that I cannot take the Yankees. I'd love for that total to go to 8.5 to take the over, but my guess is that it will not. Perhaps over 9 +100 because we're on the Jays and the Yankees are already kicking their ass in the first inning.

Seattle at Texas: I do know that Maurer hasn't been very good, but neither have the Rangers, so to see Tepesch at -180 is a bit of an eyebrow raiser to me. Especially since Tepesch has thrown a bunch of pitches and just faces the Mariners. They (Seattle) did hit him well, but he's not the veteran that I'd expect to make the adjustments that quick. Haven't looked at the weather, but think ten runs might be doable.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HANDICAPPING KINGS

JIMMY

BASEBALL

WASHINGTON/NYM OVER 7.5 -105 (3PM)

COLORADO -126 ARIZONA (8PM)

NBA

CHICAGO/BROOKLYN OVER 181 (8PM)

NHL

TORONTO/OTTAWAUNDER 5.5 -140 (7PM)

PERRY (SOCCER PLAYS)

SPAIN (12PM)

Betis (ESP-P) vs Real Madrid (ESP-P) - OVER 3.5+105

GERMANY (930AM)

Fortuna Duesseldorf (GER-1) vs Hamburg (GER-1) - UNDER 2.5+100

ENGLAND (10AM)

Wigan (ENG-P) vs West Ham (ENG-P) - OVER 2.5-115

ITALY

Lazio (ITA-A) vs Udinese (ITA-A) - OVER 2.5+109