6-19-13

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NHL

Wednesday, June 19

Bruins won 11 of last 13 games overall (4-2 in OT games) since rallying from down 4-1 at 11:00 mark in Game 7 of 1st round vs Toronto. Bruins are 8-2 at home in playoffs; they allowed seven goals in last eight games overall. Six of last eight Boston games stayed under total; under is 5-2-1 in Chicago's road playoff games. Chicago won eight of last 11 games since being down 3-1 in Detroit series. Blackhawks allowed three or less goals in last 13 games. Chicago failed to score on its last 20 power-play opportunities (0-11 in series); Boston has killed off its last 27 short-handed situations. Home team gets last line change and Bergeron has won 24 of last 28 faceoffs, so playing in Garden is big advantage for B's. Toews has only one playoff goal for Hawks, after tying for team lead in regular season.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Heat (-7) Tuesday.

Wednesday it’s the Tigers. The deficit is 647 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Seattle Mariners

"The Giants rallied heroically for Hondo last night, which, in addition to showing the Padres who their daddies are, also reduced the deficit to 200 charltons.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch expects everything to be shipshape with the Mariners — 10 units on Saunders."

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Fading MLB traveling teams a profitable betting practice
by Jason Logan

The circus life of Major League Baseball is unlike any other pro sport. Teams play a game, rush to the airport to fly across the county that night, and are back on the field the next day staring down a new opponent.

Only four American League clubs have a winning record in this situation – Baltimore, Oakland, Seattle and Texas – while six National League teams are above .500 when coming off a game and travel the night before – Atlanta, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, St. Louis and San Francisco.

Just the AL East (29-28) and NL Central (29-26) have a collective winning record in this situation. American League clubs are 76-93 coming off a game and travel while the National League boasts a 76-86 record when going field-runway-field. That’s an MLB-wide 45.9 winning percentage for teams playing and traveling the night before.

“(Travel) does play into (the odds) for sure,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “It’s a long season and clubs have to rest some people. We consider it more in extreme cases.”

Korner notes that oddsmakers send out the overnight MLB odds for the next day before that day’s schedule is even played, and says bettors can find value scouting those teams traveling that night especially if that day’s contest goes long.

“If we put the line out for the next day and that night’s game goes long or into extras, (bettors) play it. And it’s up to the Bookmakers to make the change, but usually by that point (bettors) have already made their play,” he says. “It’s an angle bettors should play. There are so many games and it’s such a long tough season.”

A perfect example of finding value fading a team with a busy travel sked are the Pittsburgh Pirates, who enter Tuesday's action as the best bet in the majors at +15.10 units (41-29). However, the Bucs would be even more profitable if they weren't 2-10 in outings when coming off a game and travel the day before.

Here are the best and worst records in the majors when coming off a game and travel the night before:

Best travel bets (Records as of June 18, 2013)

St. Louis Cardinals: 8-2, 5-3-2 O/U
Oakland Athletics: 9-5, 10-4 O/U
Cincinnati Reds: 8-4, 5-7 O/U
Baltimore Orioles: 7-6, 7-6 O/U
Philadelphia Phillies: 7-6, 6-6-1 O/U
San Francisco Giants: 6-3, 4-3-2 O/U
Milwaukee Brewers: 6-4, 6-3-1 O/U
Atlanta Braves: 6-4, 6-4 O/U
Seattle Mariners: 6-5, 4-6-1 O/U
Texas Rangers: 6-5, 4-6-1 O/U

Worst travel bets (Records as of June 18, 2013)

Colorado Rockies: 1-10, 4-7 O/U
Pittsburgh Pirates: 2-10, 5-7 O/U
Miami Marlins: 2-8, 5-4-1 O/U
Chicago White Sox: 2-7, 4-5 O/U
Minnesota Twins: 2-7, 5-4 O/U
Los Angeles Angels: 3-8, 6-5 O/U
Houston Astros: 4-8, 6-5-1 O/U
Washington Nationals: 4-8, 6-5-1 O/U
New York Mets: 4-5, 4-4-1 O/U

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB MIAMI at ARIZONA

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ARIZONA) poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts
65-25 since 1997. ( 72.2% 32.8 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at DETROIT

BALTIMORE is 69-51 (+32.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.4) , OPPONENT (4.5)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA MINNESOTA at PHOENIX

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after scoring 75 points or more
112-60 since 1997. ( 65.1% 46.0 units )

WNBA MINNESOTA at PHOENIX

Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season, in May, June, or July games
117-37 since 1997. ( 76.0% 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA MINNESOTA at PHOENIX

Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 70.5 good foul drawing team - attempting >=20 free throws/game
193-114 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.9% 67.6 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

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POWERPLAYWINS

POD

Chicago White Sox -130 (Sale)

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CHASE DIAMOND

9* MLB Perfect

Point Spread: Chi Cubs+1½/-147

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"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won on Tuesday with the Fightin Phillies -$160/Nationals and has Np on Wednesday.

"Mr Chalk" is 43-25 +$790 for the 2013 MLB Season.


Ben lee lost on Tuesday with the Heat -7/Spurs and has Np on Wednesday.

Ben lee is 19-16 +$185 for the 2013 NBA Playoffs.


Ben lee had Np on Tuesday.

For Wednesday ben lee likes the Bruins -$130/Blackhawks.

Ben lee is 3-0 +$330 for the 2013 NHL Stanley Cup Finals and 19-5 +$1240 for the 2013 NHL Playoffs.

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Paul Leiner

500* Brewers -120

100* White Sox -140

50* A's -110

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Jimmy Boyd

5* (MLB) Detroit Tigers ML -145

3* (MLB) Cleveland Indians ML -155
3* (MLB) NY Mets ML +180

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LA Syndicate
Top Afternoon Play
Diamondbacks/Marlins Under 8

Chicago Syndicate
Top Afternoon Play
Detroit Tigers

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers - UNDER 9 RUNS (-115) *EARLY START*
Listed Pitchers: Tillman vs Porcello
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)

These two teams have split the first two games of the series with totals of 6 and 7 runs. 3 of their 5 meetings this year have gone UNDER the total. Tonight two hot pitchers square off as Chris Tillman goes for Baltimore and Rick Porcello for the Tigers. Tillman is 7-2 with a 3.61 ERA, .248 OBA and 1.28 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has pitched 19 innings giving up just 3 earned runs against. Porcello is 4-3 with a 4.37 ERA. .250 OBA and 1.14 WHIP. He has also pitched 19 innings over his last 3 starts allowing 4 earned runs for a 1.89 ERA. Since a rough April he has been great, and he is 2-0 with a 3.72 ERA at home. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in the Orioles last 16 overall, 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 road games, 4-1 in their last 5 as a road underdog, and 4-1 in Tillman’s last 5 with a high total between 9-10.5. The UNDER is 8-1 in the Tigers last 9 overall, 5-2 in their last 7 home games, and 5-2 in Porcello’s last 7 starts. Take the UNDER this afternoon.

**1 UNIT = Colorado Rockies @ Toronto Blue Jays - BLUE JAYS TO WIN (-155)
**1 UNIT = Colorado Rockies @ Toronto Blue Jays - BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+136)
Listed Pitchers: Nicasio vs Buehrle
(Note: I’m risking 1.00 units to win 0.65 units and 1.00 units to win 1.36 units)

*We did this a number of times last year, but this is the first time this season We are splitting up the two units bet between the moneyline and run line. If the Jays win by exactly 1 run we stand to lose 0.35 units, if the Jays win by 2+ runs we stand to win 2.01 units, and if they were to lose we’d lose the whole 2 units of course. Instead of going full out on the run line this gives us a bit of a safety net.

The Jays are winners of 7 straight games as they’ve taken the first two of this series vs Colorado winning 2-0 and then 8-3 last night. Colorado has just 9 hits over the two games and have done very little offensively. Tonight they will face a veteran pitcher that has been pitching solid in Mark Buehrle. Buehrle is 3-4 with a 4.66 ERA, .266 OBA and 1.32 WHIP on the season, but he has posted a 2.54 ERA over his last 7 starts and he is 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA. Juan Nicasio is on the mound for Colorado as they look to avoid the sweep. He is 4-2 with a 4.86 ERA, .251 OBA and 1.35 WHIP on the year. Over his last three starts he is 0-0 with a 5.09 ERA, and his ERA has risen each month to start the season. The Rockies are just 20-41 in their last 61 games as an underdog dating back to last year, 2-5 in their last 7 overall, and 18-40 in their last 58 games vs a left handed starter. They have struggled in interleague going 5-23 in their last 28 interleague games. They are just 4-10 in Nicasio’s last 14 starts as an underdog. The Blue Jays have won 7 straight and are 4-1 in their last 5 home games. They are 5-2 in Buehrle’s 7 home starts this year and 4-1 in his last 5 starts. This Blue Jays team is rolling and their is a good vibe at the Rogers Centre. The last time the team has won 7 straight was in 2008 I believe I heard last night so I expect a good crowd and good energy in Toronto tonight. I like the match up with the Jays throwing a lefty out to complete the sweep and with the Jays averaging 6.2 runs per game over their last 5 I like them to win by a few.

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Kyle Hunter

*4 Reds Under 8

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Matt Fargo Golf Picks - Traveler's Championship

Recommended Tournament Win at the Travelers Championship:

Bubba Watson (20-1)
John Rollins (30-1)
Charley Hoffman (40-1)
Brendon de Jonge (40-1)
Marc Leishman (50-1)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Unicorns
2013 Record to date after 22 events: -20.4 Unicorns

Here is a breakdown of what he has done in every tournament this year so far:

Hyundai Tournament of Champions (-5 Unicorns)
Sony Open in Hawaii (-5 Unicorns)
Humana Challenge (- 5 Unicorns)
Farmer Insurance Open (+3.5 Unicorns)
Waste Management Phoenix Open (+19 Unicorns)
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am (-5 Unicorns)
Northern Trust Open (-5 Unicorns)
WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship (+25.66 Unicorns)
The Honda Classic (-5 Unicorns)
WGC-Cadillac Championship (-5 Unicorns)
Tampa Bay Championship (-5 Unicorns)
Arnold Palmer Invitational (-1.5 Unicorns)
Shell Houston Open (-5 Unicorns)
The Masters (-8 Unicorns)
RBC Heritage (+27 Unicorns)
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (-5 Unicorns)
The Wells Fargo Championship (-5 Unicorns)
THE PLAYERS Championship (-5 Unicorns)
HP Byron Nelson Championship (-5 Unicorns)
Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial (-5 Unicorns)
Memorial Tournament (-5 Unicorns)
FedEx St. Jude Classic (-5 Unicorns)
U.S. Open (-6 Unicorns)