6-20-13

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Spurs at Heat: What bettors need to know

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-6, 189.5)

Best-of-seven series tied 3-3.

After losing a late lead in Game 6 in devastating fashion, the San Antonio Spurs attempt to become the first road team in 35 years to win Game 7 of the NBA Finals in Thursday’s decisive matchup with the Miami Heat. San Antonio had a five-point lead with 28.1 seconds left in regulation on Tuesday before Miami rallied to force overtime and eventually claim a 103-100 victory. The Heat haven’t won back-to-back games in four weeks.

Miami trailed by 13 points late in the third quarter of Game 6 and the home fans were scurrying to the exits when the Heat trailed by five points in the final half-minute. But Ray Allen drained the game-tying 3-pointer with 5.2 seconds left and Miami outplayed San Antonio over the second half of overtime to keep alive its hopes of winning back-to-back titles. “It’s so hard. It’s the hardest thing,” forward LeBron James said Wednesday of repeating as champions. “I said last year was the hardest thing I’ve ever done – winning my first. Last year don’t even come close to what we’ve gone through in this postseason and in these finals.” The 1978 Washington Bullets were the last team to win a road Game 7 in the NBA Finals, beating the Seattle SuperSonics.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE SPURS: Veteran guard Manu Ginobili said after Game 6 that he couldn’t see how his team could recover from the demoralizing loss. The mental side will be an important factor in Game 7 as will bouncing back physically, especially for 37-year-old power forward Tim Duncan. The first half of Game 6 was vintage Duncan as he scored 25 points on 11-of-13 shooting. But the future Hall of Famer had just five points after halftime. “There’s no being tired at this point,” Duncan said in his Wednesday media session. “We’ve got one more game to win, and that’s all that matters.” Forward Kawhi Leonard had a monster 22-point, 11-rebound performance in Game 6 but 3-point shooter Danny Green had his first poor game of the series, going 1-of-5 from behind the arc. Green has made an NBA Finals record 26 3-pointers.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James rebounded from a slow start to notch his fourth career NBA Finals triple-double with 32 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds. He scored 18 points in the fourth quarter and made a key 3-pointer in the late rally that was punctuated by Allen’s tying 3-pointer. The health of guard Dwyane Wade is a major concern after he injured his surgically repaired left knee in the first half of Game 6. Wade has been ineffective for much of the postseason due to an injured right knee. “There’s one game left,” Wade said Wednesday. “Whatever you have inside of you, you muster it up. So I’ll be fine.” Center Chris Bosh rejected Green’s tying 3-point attempt at the end of overtime and has posted four double-doubles in five games after underachieving for most of the postseason.

TRENDS:

* The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. loss.
* The Heat are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. win.
* The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* The over is 15-5-1 in the Heat's last 21 games playing on one days rest.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Miami is looking to become the fourth team to rally from a 3-2 deficit with two consecutive home victories. The others are the 1988 Los Angeles Lakers, the 1994 Houston Rockets and the 2010 Lakers.

2. Home teams have a 14-3 record in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

3. San Antonio is 4-0 in NBA Finals and only one of its previous series required a Game 7 – when the Spurs defeated the Detroit Pistons in 2005.

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

06/20/13 Prediction

Season
Straight Up: 857-406 (.679)
ATS: 672-623 (.519)
ATS Vary Units: 1675-1585 (.514)
Over/Under: 666-629 (.514)
Over/Under Vary Units: 926-849 (.522)

NBA Finals
Game #7
MIAMI 100, San Antonio 96

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Heat open as 6.5-point faves for NBA Finals Game 7

The Miami Heat opened as 6.5-point home favorites for Game 7 of the NBA Finals after escaping with a 103-100 win in overtime versus the San Antonio Spurs at the American Airlines Arena Tuesday night.

Miami improved to 13-0 SU coming off a loss since Jan. 10 but fell short of the 6.5-point spread, marking the first time the Heat failed to cover in those rebound games during that span. The Heat and Spurs have alternated wins and loss since San Antonio took Game 1 of the finals.

Miami is just 2-4 ATS in the finals and 11-11 ATS in the postseason. San Antonio boasts a 14-6 ATS mark in the playoffs.

The total for Game 7 Thursday opened at 190 points. After playing under the number in the opening two games of the series in South Beach, the Heat and Spurs have topped the total in four straight games. The Game 6 total closed at 192 points. San Antonio is 11-9 over/under in the playoffs while Miami owns an 11-9-2 over/under postseason count.

Moneyline odds have Miami priced as a -300 favorite to win Game 7 SU and earn back-to-back NBA titles. San Antonio is listed as a +240 underdog.

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Spurs' crushing collapse worth half a point to Game 7 spread
By JASON LOGAN

The NBA Finals were over.

With the Heat down 94-89 with just 28 seconds to play in Game 6 Tuesday, the San Antonio Spurs appeared like all they had to do was get their rings sized.

Security at the American Airlines Arena frantically lined the court with a thick yellow rope to keep people from crashing the Spurs’ championship party while legions of broken Heat fans filed up the stairs past team president Pat Riley, who gazed through them to the action on the floor.

But the finals aren’t over, not by a long shot according to oddsmakers who have set Miami as a 6.5-point home favorite for Game 7 after forcing overtime and edging San Antonio 103-100 Tuesday night.

“Before (Game 6) started, we talked about the Heat being 6-point favorites if it got to Game 7, but after such a devastating loss in which the Spurs collapsed and, in my opinion, looked exhausted, we opened the Heat -6.5 and dealt that number all night,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, told Covers.


The Spurs are sizable +230 underdogs after having the Larry O’Brien Trophy ripped from their hands on the moneyline (Miami -280) despite coming within half a minute of their franchise fifth NBA title. A loss like that is tough to come back from.

“I have no clue how we’re going to be re-energized. I’m devastated. But we have to. There’s no Game 8 afterwards," San Antonio guard Manu Ginobili told the media.

Since 1978, only six NBA Finals have gone the full seven games. And just twice in that span has the Game 6 winner failed to ride that momentum to a victory in Game 7 (1984 Boston Celtics defeated the Los Angeles Lakers after losing Game 6 and San Antonio defeated the Detroit Pistons after losing Game 6).

In fact, three of the last four finals series that saw a Game 7 finale were won by the Game 6 winner – Los Angeles in 2010, Houston in 1994, and Los Angeles in 1988.

Despite the crushing loss and history apparently on the Heat’s side, early action is siding with the Spurs to keep it close in Game 7 Thursday.

“All the early money is on the Spurs and we went to Spurs +6.5 (-115) before going to +6 flat this morning,” says Stewart.

Thursday is the second Game 7 for Miami this postseason after going the distance versus the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals. The Heat are 2-0 SU and ATS in Game 7 showdowns since the formation of the “Big Three” – LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

San Antonio is 3-1 SU and ATS in Game 7 situations since 2000 and has shown the ability to recover from a crushing Game 6 loss in the past, rebounding to win the NBA title against the Pistons in 2005.

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Golf Picks/Steve

Travelers Championship

Coming off a winner on the US Open, and one two weeks ago as well. I think he's getting hot. Here are the picks for the week. The pick is on Rollins.

JOHN ROLLINS: 23 TO 1

NICOLAS COLSAERTS: 45 TO 1

JAMES DRISCOLL: 100 TO 1

GRAHAM DELAET: 70 TO 1

CASEY WITTENBERG: 225 TO 1

GARY WOODLAND: 60 TO 1

Head to head picks.

Nicolas Colsaerts (+100) over Kevin Streelman

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Travelers Championship Golf Betting Preview & Picks
by Matt Fargo

This is a letdown week with the U.S. Open peaking interest last weekend. The letdown not only comes because less is on the line but also because the field strength goes way down following a major championship. That’s the case at the Travelers Championship at TPC at River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut.

The scoring will be different compared to the U.S. Open, where every player in the field finished over par. The last 19 winners of the Travelers have carded double-digit scores under par, which means birdies are coveted and ball striking and hitting greens are of the utmost importance. Last year, 14 players finished double-digits under par.

With the U.S. Open taking place last week, the field has been thinned out as just two players ranked in the OWGR Top 10 are here, as well as only three of the Top 10 from the FedEx Cup Standings. Just six tournament winners from this year are teeing it up, so the possibility is there once again to crown a first-timer. Seven of the past eight Travelers Champions are here including the last three winners. Last week's U.S. Open winner Justin Rose is also in Cromwell.

To no surprise, Rose (+1,200) is the favorite this week on the heels of his U.S. Open victory. He will try and avoid a letdown from his first ever major but that will be tough to do. Last year, Webb Simpson came here after his first major win and finished T29. Rose does have three Top 10s at the Travelers but has not played here since 2010 and he may not be ready mentally this week.

Bubba Watson (+2,000) is one of seven players at +2,500 or lower, but he is in the best shape of them all avoiding a letdown or a hangover from the U.S. Open. He finished T32 and was never really in contention after the second day. He won this event in 2010, which was his first ever win on tour, and it was no fluke as he backed it up with a T2 last year, finishing one shot off the lead.

John Rollins (+3,000) could take advantage of the light field and pick up his first tour win since the 2009 Reno-Tahoe Open. He has had success at the TPC, with a T4 last year while posting a T2 in 2011. That history is great to have but it is bolstered by his recent form. His two Top 10s this year came in his last two starts, a T4 at Colonial and a solo sixth at the FedEx St. Jude Classic.

Charley Hoffman (+4,000) was on his way to win the 2012 Travelers, shooting seven under through 13 on Sunday, but finished the last five holes three over with a double on 17 and a bogey on 18. He has been around on the weekend the last three years and his current form won't bring him down. He has four Top 10s this season, including three in his final eight starts.

Birdies are available everywhere here and Brendon de Jonge (+4,000) is one player that can take advantage. He is second on tour in birdies made with 252, so keeping that up along with avoiding big numbers should have him in the hunt. He has missed only four cuts while posting three Top 10s this season. At the Travelers, he has a T9 and a T8 in two of the last three years. Last year’s scorecard featured 19 birdies and one eagle.

We have not seen back-to-back winners here since Phil Mickelson in 2001 and 2002 but there is no reason to think Marc Leishman (+5,000) can’t do it - and at long-shot odds as well. He backdoored his way in to the win last year but did shoot a Sunday 62, so he deserved it. Additionally, he had 21 birdies over the course of four rounds. He has four Top 10s this year, three of which were in April and May.

Recommended tournament win five pack at the Travelers Championship
(All for one unit)

Bubba Watson (+2,000)

John Rollins (+3,000)

Charley Hoffman (+4,000)

Brendon de Jonge (+4,000)

Marc Leishman (+5,000)

2013 Record to date after 22 events: -20.4 Units
2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units

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Rose Looks to Stay Hot in Connecticut
by Steve Bennett

Travelers Championship

Tees Off: Thursday, June 20
TPC River Highlands – Cromwell, CT
Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds
Justin Rose 12-to-1
Lee Westwood 15-to-1
Hunter Mahan 15-to-1
Bubba Watson 20-to-1
Jason Dufner 20-to-1
Rickie Fowler 25-to-1
Webb Simpson 25-to-1
John Rollins 30-to-1
Harris English 30-to-1
Keegan Bradley 30-to-1
Bo Van Pelt 40-to-1
Ryan Moore 40-to-1
Charley Hoffman 40-to-1
Brendon de Jonge 40-to-1
Nicolas Colsaerts 40-to-1
Zach Johnson 40-to-1
Freddie Jacobson 40-to-1
Padraig Harrington 40-to-1
Ian Poulter 40-to-1
Carl Pettersson 50-to-1
Brian Davis 50-to-1
Graham DeLaet 50-to-1
John Huh 50-to-1
Marc Leishman 50-to-1
Tim Clark 50-to-1
11 golfers 60-to-1
6 golfers 80-to-1
3 golfers 100-to-1
Aaron Baddeley 125-to-1
Vijay Singh 125-to-1
Mike Weir 200-to-1
John Daly 300-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 5-to-2

After a wet and wild week in Philadelphia, the Tour moves north to Connecticut for what’s traditionally a shootout at TPC River Highlands. With a relatively weak field and a history of surprise winners, it should be a wide-open week…

Freddie Jacobson (40/1): Jacobson has faded after a strong start to 2013, missing cuts each of the past two weeks. But purely on talent, he’s one of the best in this field. He won in Cromwell two years ago and was in the hunt last year, when he finished three strokes off the pace and took home a T8.

Bubba Watson (20/1): The 2010 champ and 2012 runner-up here, Watson’s track record at River Highlands is excellent. He went T6 in 2008, T14 in 2009, and even in finishing just T38 in 2011, he still broke 70 in all four rounds. It’s enough to overshadow the fact that he hasn’t won since his 2012 Masters title.

Padraig Harrington (40/1): Harrington is one of the talents that stands out in a weak field. Worldwide, he’s gone top-10 five time this year, and he’s coming off a solid T21 at Merion. Among his four starts in Cromwell were a T5 in 2010 and a T11 last year, when he shot a third-round 65.

Webb Simpson (25/1): He’s shown signs of recapturing his 2011 form, as Simpson has gone top-10 four times this year, and top-5 three times. He had a streak of eight straight sub-70 rounds in Cromwell until a final-round 71 last year.

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Chicago Syndicate
Top Plays
Astros/Brewers Under 8
Tigers/Red Sox Over 9
NBA - Spurs/Heat Under 190


LA Syndicate
Top Plays
Padres
Giants
Mariners
A's

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Tigers Wednesday.

Thursday it’s the Spurs. The deficit is 722 sirignanos.

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Cappers Access

Heat -6
Angels +115

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Roxxy

under sky

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Hondo

LA Dodgers

"The Mariners, looking ancient at the plate, were blanked by the Angels last night, which caused Hondo’s deficit to grow to 250 mayberrys.
Tonight, in the war on deficit spending, Mr. Aitch will deputize Fife for a 10-unit plunge on the Dodgers."

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Washington is 7-0 at home when Zimmerman starts (6-0, 1.64).
-- Braves won last eight Minor starts (5-0, 2.94). Niese is 0-1, 2.79 in his last three starts.
-- Feldman is 6-2, 2.74 in his last ten starts. Cardinals won Lynn's last five starts, scoring 43 runs (1-0, 9.00 last two starts, 11 IP).
-- Fife is 1-2, 2.65 in his last three starts. Marquis is 3-0, 3.05 in his last three outings.
-- Gaudin is 2-1, 4.24 in three starts this season.

-- Gallardo is 2-0, 0.00 (14 IP) in his last two starts; Harrell is 1-1, 2.18 in his last three outings.

-- Lackey is 3-1, 2.87 in his last six starts. Alvarez allowed one run in six IP, winning his first '13 start.
-- Hernandez is 3-0, 1.84 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Cumpton allowed three runs in five IP in his first '13 start.
-- Bailey is 1-2, 5.96 in his last four starts.
-- Oswalt was 3-2, 2.16 in five AAA starts; he's made 335 career starts, was 4-3, 5.80 in nine starts LY (163-96, 3.28 career record).
-- Koehler is 0-3, 7.04 in his last five starts.

-- Diamond is 0-2, 10.24 in his last two starts. Danks is 1-3, 4.88 in last four.
-- Lindblom is 0-2, 5.94 in three starts this season. Griffin is 0-3, 4.15 in his last four starts.
-- Moore is 0-3, 14.60 in his last three starts. Pettitte is 1-2, 4.18 in last four.
-- Hanson is 1-2, 5.56 in his last four starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Cumpton 0-1; Bailey 2-14
-- Oswalt 0-0; Zimmerman 1-15
-- Niese 4-13 (1 of last 9); Minor 4-14
-- Feldman 4-13; Lynn 4-13
-- Fife 1-4; Marquis 4-14
-- Koehler 3-7; Gaudin 0-2

-- Gallardo 3-15; Harrell 3-15

-- Danks 2-5; Diamond 5-12
-- Griffin 1-14; Lindblom 1-3
-- Lackey 4-11; Alvarez 0-1
-- Moore 6-14 (6 of last 9); Pettitte 3-11
-- Hernandez 3-15; Hanson 3-8

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Colorado games stayed under total.
-- Under is 5-2-2 in Mets' last nine games.
-- Last four Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in last fourteen San Diego games.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Miami's last ten games.

-- 11 of last 14 Houston games stayed under the total.

-- Three of last four Minnesota games went over total.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Oakland games.
-- Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Boston games.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in last ten Bronx games.
-- Eleven of last thirteen Seattle games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Cincinnati won seven of its last ten games.
-- Braves won four of their last six games.
-- Cardinals won 16 of their last 24 home games.
-- Padres won seven of last nine games, but lost last two.
-- Giants won six of their last nine home games.

-- Astros won five of their last seven games.

-- Twins won three of their last four games.
-- Angels won five of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Pirates lost six of their last nine road games.
-- Washington lost four of its last six games. Colorado is 3-7 in its last ten road games.
-- Mets lost 13 of their last 18 games (3-2 last five).
-- Cubs lost three of their last four games.
-- Dodgers lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Miami lost 12 of its last 15 road games.

-- Brewers are 3-4 in their last seven games.

-- White Sox lost 13 of their last 15 road games.
-- Rangers lost 10 of their last 14 games; A's lost four of last six.
-- Detroit lost its last two games, outscored 18-5. Red Sox lost three of their last four road games.
-- Bronx lost six of its last eight games. Tampa Bay lost eight of its last eleven.
-- Seattle lost 12 of its last 17 away games.

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Today's MLB Picks

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees

The Yankees look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is coming off a 6-2 win over Boston and is 1-6 in its last 7 games following a victory. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JUNE 20 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cumpton) 15.451; Cincinnati (Bailey) 17.187 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-185); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-185); Under

Game 903-904: Colorado at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Oswalt) 16.148; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.048 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-180); 7 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+160); Over

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 14.870; Atlanta (Minor) 15.848 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Under

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Feldman) 15.556; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.434 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-185); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+165); Over

Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Fife) 15.047; San Diego (Marquis) 16.891 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Under

Game 911-912: Miami at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 16.246; San Francisco (Gaudin) 15.036 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+155); Over

Game 913-914: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.572; Minnesota (Diamond) 15.044 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-105); Over

Game 915-916: Oakland at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 14.213; Texas (Lindblom) 15.241 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 10 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-105); Under

Game 917-918: Boston at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.206; Detroit (Alvarez) 15.588 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 14.814; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.901 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Over

Game 921-922: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.480; LA Angels (Hanson) 15.464 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-105); Over

Game 923-924: Milwaukee at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 16.599; Houston (Harrell) 14.973 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Under