6-20-13

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Blackhawks favorite to hoist Stanley Cup after Game 4 win

The Stanley Cup final is even at two games apiece following the Chicago Blackhawks 6-5 overtime victory over the Boston Bruins Wednesday night.

The Blackhawks may have found their stride in the scoring department and series odds have swayed in their favor. Chicago is now -140 to win the Cup with Boston dropping to +120.

The Hawks opened the Stanley Cup series as -145 faves back on June 9 and, after being down 2-1 in the series, were +190 prior to Game 4.

Game 5 is scheduled for Saturday in Chicago. Oddsmakers have opened the Blackhawks as -150 home favorites with the total at 5 goals.

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sports_junkie

Pick: Miami/Spurs UNDER

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Mitch Wilson's Podcast June 20th

MLB: Tigers ML * Braves ML * Giants ML

NBA: Over

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bookiemonsters

pod angels under 7

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Ben burns

miami heat -6

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jb pa connection
mariners

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Vegas Runner NBA

Under

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Al Demarco

10 dime Wash. Nationals

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MLB Totals

Free Plays

921 Mariners -109

910 Padres -133

Paid Plays

5 Dimes
918 Detroit Tigers -120 over Boston Red Sox
(Listed Pitchers Lackey/Alvarez)

4 Dimes
919 Tampa Bay Rays +100 over New York Yankees
(Listed Pitchers Moore/Pettitte)

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Brian Edwards

NBA
Spurs/Heat - OVER

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Todays Best Bets

(5 UNITS) Spurs
(5 UNITS) Padres
(4 UNITS) Mariners
(3 UNITS) Red Sox

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SPORTS WAGERS

Miami +156 over SAN FRANCISCO (5 innings)

1st 5 innings. Chad Gaudin is a reliever that was pressed into an emergency start, which subsequently has turned into three straight starts, making this his fourth in a row in that role. The good news is that this career middle reliever come in with a 2.83 ERA. The bad news is pretty much everything else. The next question is, "Do we get hazard pay for looking at numbers like this?" In 787 career innings, Gaudin has walked 358 batters, has a 1.50 WHIP, a 4.52 career ERA, two saves and four blown saves and a 28% groundball rate, by far the lowest groundball mark of any pitcher with over 350 career innings. Gaudin is used to pitching to one or two batters and sometimes a full inning. Now he’s been asked to stretch out. Gaudin was whacked in his last start in Atlanta and although this is the Marlins, his chances of success remain as low as any starting pitcher in baseball.

In seven starts for the Fish, Tom Koehler is 0-5 with a 5.09 ERA. Those are some of the most misleading numbers in the game and it’s due to an unreasonable 60% strand rate. Koehler has a very respectable 3.78 xERA. He also has an elite groundball rate of 53% in those seven starts and his fastball is up to 93.5 MPH. Koehler isn’t overpowering by any means but he does have above average offerings and can get hitters to chase his curveball. His repertoire consists of an 87-93 mph fastball that he generally locates to both sides of the plate, a cutter, curveball, and solid-average change-up. Koehler changes speeds well, but doesn’t have much deception in his delivery. He has the ingredients to be a durable, back-of-the-rotation starter. What we know for sure is that regardless of what happens in this game, fading Chad Gaudin at prices like this has tremendous profit potential over time.

Tampa Bay +101 over N.Y. YANKEES (5 innings)

1st 5 innings. This same Yankees team would not be favored in this spot if they were wearing any other uniforms. The Yanks are close to being a complete mess. They do not have a single .300 hitter in the line-up. At least five of the nine hitters they will send to the plate today are batting under .240. Batting cleanup with either be Thomas Neal (.211 BA – 0HR’s, 2 RBI’s) or Vernon Wells and his .225 BA. The Yankees have sunk to third place in the AL East after a hot start and they’re likely going to be overtaken by both the Rays and Jays soon. Since coming off the GL to start on June 3, Andy Pettitte has been hammered in two of three starts by the Indians and Angels. In between those, Pettitte threw a gem at Seattle but that park could make Bob Barker look good. Pettitte is 41-years old and in one inning shy of 3200 career innings. His health, age, arm mileage and recent struggles all say he is never going to regain the form that made him one of the most reliable and big-game pitchers ever. Pettitte is now pure fade material pitching for this depleted Yankee squad.

Matt Moore is starting to see his surface stats match his more wobbly skill base. His current 4.12 ERA is still lower than his 4.60 xERA. His control becomes extremely volatile when he pitches from a full windup but it's a lot better with runners on base, suggesting he’s an adjustment away from being the 8-0 pitcher with a 2.29 ERA that he was after his May 19th start, Earlier in the year, Moore faced the Yanks and a threw an eight-inning, two hit beauty. We’re not expecting anything like that but at least Moore has that game in his mind and you can expect him to be much better than his past few pitching lines.

Los Angeles +117 over SAN DIEGO (5 innings)

The Padres went on a serious run recently with 10 wins in 12 games but it appears to be over. San Diego is coming off back-to-back losses in San Francisco and with injuries to key starting personnel that include Everth Cabrera, Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso, the Padres could be in trouble. With those injuries and Jason Marquis starting, San Diego is a huge risk as the favorite. Marquis has no value whatsoever. His skill set is worse than ever so don’t buy into that misleading 3.63 ERA. A true measure of his skills can be fund in Marquis's 5.34 xERA, which is one of the worst xERA's in the bg leagues. Marquis used to get by with a decent control rate decent but even that has abandoned him this year with 47 walks in 83 frames. He's maintaining his usual weak strikeout rate and his success so far has hinged entirely on an 81% strand rate. That won't last. Everything in Marquis' skill set screams to avoid. The combination of more walks, few K’s and more home runs spells some huge disasters down the road and it’s probably going to come sooner than later.

Stephen Fife was a third round selection of the Red Sox in ’08 before being sent to Los Angeles at the trade deadline in ’11. He has all the potential in the world and reached the majors in ’12 and started five games. Fife offers a big and durable frame along with the ability to induce groundball outs. In 22 innings this season, his groundball rate is outstanding at 64%. He throws with loose arm action that gives him some projection, but he hasn’t realized his true velocity potential. He generally sits in the 88-93 mph range with his quality sinker and he can sometimes touch 95 if he has to. Fife works ahead in the count consistently and rarely puts hitters on base via the walk. He has 21 K’s and seven walks, which is a solid 3-1 ratio. An opportunity opened up for Fife at the beginning of this month and the kid has responded with three solid outings. Fife’s chances of out-pitching Marquis and leading after five frames are probably in the 80%/20% range. Wrong side favored.

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INDIAN COWBOY

NBA
4* Miami Heat-6 vs. Spurs (9pm)

MLB
4* NY Yankees- 120 vs. Rays (7:05pm)

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RTG Sports

3* San Antonio Spurs +5.5

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Dr Bob

Spurs