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Friday, July 19, 2013
MLB
Seattle (Saunders) (-120) at Houston (Norris) 8:10 ET
3% Houston (Norris) (+110)
The Seattle bats were booming before the break and Saunders has pitched better on the road in recent outings. But the YTD home/road pitching dichotomy is too much for us to pass up at this home dog price. While Seattle is just 3-7 in 10, Saunders road starts where he has a 5.28 ERA. Houston counters with another great home season by Norris in which he has a 2.27 ERA. Home dog is the way to go here!
San Diego (Marquis) at St. Louis (Westbrook) (-170, - 1 1/2 run +120)
4% St. Louis (Westbrook) (-170, - 1 1/2 run +120)
Must follow the first half of the season momentum in this opening game matchup in a series where St. Louis is 16-3 at this site. The Padres finished the first half on negative runs of 4-18 and 2-14. The Padres lost the last 4 starts by Marquis. In those outings, Marquis allowed 15 runs in 22 IP with an upside down 14/17 KBB. Westbrook has been outstanding from this mound where in 4 starts he is 3-0 with a 0.31 ERA. Run line players take note: 45/57 St. Louis wins have been by 2 or more runs including 22/27 on this field. The Padres have lost their last 9 road games, 7 of those by 2 or more runs.
Tampa Bay (Price) (-130, -1 ½ runs +120) at Toronto (Rogers) 7:05 ET
4% Tampa Bay (Price) (-130, -1 ½ runs +120)
We continue to back Tampa Bay who was very good to us in their first half finish of 17-4 and 14-2. Rays starters have recorded 15 consecutive quality starts with a 1.91 ERA. In 3 starts since returning from the DL, Price has been a part of that. He has gone 2-1 with an 0.98 ERA including a pair of complete games. At this time, Price is 6-0 with a 3.38 ERA. After their 11-0 streak in June, Toronto finished the first half of the season on a 7-13 slide. Rogers was a part of that going 0-2 with a 4.70 ERA in his last 4 starts. Run line players take note: 44/55 Tampa Bay wins have come by 2 or more runs including 20/21 away. Consider making part of your wager on the run line.
Arizona (Kennedy) at San Francisco (Gaudin) (-120) 10:15 ET
4% San Francisco (Gaudin) (-120)
San Francisco has won the World Series 2/3 years and is the defending champ. They trail the D Backs by 6 ½ games for the Division lead. Expect a much better 2nd half than their 43-51 pre-break record. They have actually been on a 12-28 slide before finishing the first half 3-1 scoring 24 runs with a .307 BA. Since filling in for Vogelsong, Gaudin has been a pleasant surprise going 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. But most outstanding has been his work from this mound where he has an 0.69 ERA and .191 OBA. Kennedy is far from the pitcher who went 21-4 two years ago. In his last 7 outings, Kennedy is 0-3 with a 6.58 ERA. On the road, Arizona is 4-7 in his starts where he has a 5.46 ERA.
WNBA - 603 Connecticut Sun @ 604 Tulsa Shock
Projected Line: Connecticut by 2 points
Connecticut is one of the teams that I really expect to see improvements on their next few games. The Sun had a poor start of the season mostly due to the injuries that they had in the backcourt. Tina Charles is the reigning MVP, but she can't do miracles on her own. The good news is that one of their top guards, Kara Lawson, returned a couple of games ago, while the other top guard, Renee Montgomery, is returning tonight. With these two guards back in combination with Tina Charles down low, Connecticut will automatically improve a lot on offense.
Tulsa is coming from a big win at Seattle, where the Storm scored just 59 points, but the truth is that the Shock is still dead last on defensive rates with 107.3! Even a shorthanded Connecticut without Lawson and Montgomery was able to score 88 points against Tulsa on the first game of the season, while shooting 50.8% FG! I expect the Sun to have another big offensive game against the Shock tonight.
Tulsa is coming from a mega blowout 86-59 win at Seattle, but I don't know if we should take this result so seriously. In fact, three of their four wins this season were against Seattle, so it's clear that the Shock have a great matchup with the Storm, but struggle against everybody else. Tulsa will come to tonight's game with a bit more confidence than usual, but they will face a fired up Connecticut, who is looking to start a good run as soon as possible now that they have a healthy backcourt once again. The Sun is definitely a better team than Tulsa and so, I'll be taking them on the moneyline tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603 Connecticut Sun ML @ +105
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