8-28-13

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U.S. Open betting

Blake swinging for swan song on Day 3
By JAYPRIMETOWN

Defending US Open Champion Andy Murray takes to the court to open his title defense against French serve-and-volley specialist Michael Llodra. Three other matches that highlight Day 3 action in Flushing Meadows.

James Blake (-125) vs. Ivo Karlovic (-110): American James Blake announced prior to the US Open Tournament that he would be retiring pending his elimination from the event. Blake had one of the all-time great matches in a five-round classic with Andre Agassi in the quarterfinals of the 2005 US Open. Will Blake turn back the clock in his final tournament as a professional?

Urszula Radwankska (+150) vs. Sloane Stephen (-200): The American Sloane Stephens takes to Arthur Ashe in a feature match against Poland's Radwanska. Stephens has had a breakout year including a semifinal appearance at the Australian Open. Stephens struggled in the first round just getting by in a third-set tiebreak. I expect her to be propelled by the home crowd and win in straight sets.

Caroline Garcia (+175) vs. Laura Robson (-250): An exciting matchup between two teenagers. Robson is Great Britain's female hope, while Garcia is a rising star in France. This is an exciting matchup that takes place in Round 2 this year, but could be a quarterfinal type matchup in a couple years. Robson is the more polished player at this point in time, but Garcia may have the higher ceiling.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB HOUSTON at CHI WHITE SOX

Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL
142-51 since 1997. ( 73.6% 56.7 units )
13-7 this year. ( 65.0% 0.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB CHICAGO CUBS at LA DODGERS

LA DODGERS are 25-8 (+15.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season.

The average score was: LA DODGERS (4.5) , OPPONENT (2.4)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) terrible 3 point shooting team - making <=27% of their attempts
35-12 since 1997. ( 74.5% 21.8 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 0.8 units )

WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA

Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (ATLANTA) off a loss against a division rival, in August or September games
155-42 since 1997. ( 78.7% 0.0 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% 0.0 units )

WNBA WASHINGTON at ATLANTA

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game)
402-258 since 1997. ( 60.9% 118.2 units )
19-13 this year. ( 59.4% 4.7 units )

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bookiemonsters
139-87 run

15-4-1 run last 20 plays

pod LA ANGELS game under 7.5

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CHASE DIAMOND

9* MLB DIAMOND DOMINATOR

Money Line: Seattle Mariners -135

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Paul Leiner

100* Over 8.5 - Padres/D'Backs

50* Mariners -135

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MLB Umpire Under Streakers

ATL / CLE U7.5 @ -123 (Joyce 7-0-1 L8)
COL / SF U9 @ +105 (Cooper 13-3 L16)
LAD / CHC U7.5 @ +105 (Danley 13-2-1 L16)

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Hondo

Hondo playing favorites

Hondo, who had a victory in hand with the Royals, became the toast of the West Coast last night when the Cubs shocked Kershaw & Co. to lower the deficit to 1,335 bauers.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch is trying for a three-fave night with the Yankees, Cardinals and Pirates — 20 units apiece on Kuroda, Wainwright and Morton, that old salt.

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Bankroll Sports

2* Padres/Diamondbacks - Under 8.5

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ANDRE GOMES

Soccer Champions League

Zenit St. Petersburg vs Pacos de Ferreira

Odds: Zenit -265, Paços de Ferreira +845, Draw +430, Over 2.75 -114

In my opinion this is a perfect example of a market overreaction after just one game, I remember that in the first leg of this series, the totals line market was heavily favoring the Under as Pinnacle Sports closed the totals line w/ Under 2.5 Goals @ -142 / 1.70 odds.

Eventually the game ended with Zenit winning 4-1 and because of that the oddsmakers were forced to put today’s total line is overvalued as we can get a 3-goals line at decent odds. I watched the first leg and I can say that the final score was a bit unfair for the Portuguese team because they didn’t play as bad as the final outcome would dictate. What happened was an inexperienced team trying to be pro-active on offense, pressuring high on the pitch but by doing that they were exposed on the back and because their individual talent isn’t good enough for this level of completion, Zenit just took advantage of such holes and scored 4 goals.

The Portuguese team as a new coach for this season (that was a “weird” choice given his inexperience) and things could not went worse in the domestic league with 2 losses in 2 games and no goals scored. They know that their chances to qualify dropped from slim to almost none (and I’m being optimistic in here) so their mindset for today’s game is quite simple to predict in my opinion: “just not be embarrassed”! In this scenario I’m not expecting them to go all out searching for a goal, instead they will be more prudent and cautious or else they will be humiliated.

On the other side, the Russian team will control the tempo of the game, the qualification is almost done so there is no need to rush things. They have a big domestic league game in this weekend against Lokomotiv Moscow so we can expect them to play slow and manage their effort. They won’t have the same scoring chances than they had in the first leg because Paços de Ferreira won’t be positioned that high in the pitch today.

This whole scenario makes the Under 3 Goals a valuable bet for today and I’m just taking advantage of a market overreaction.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 3 Goals @ -132

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The Factsman

Wednesday Video Pick

OVER 9.5 - Baltimore vs Boston
(B. Norris -R - J. Lackey -R)

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TMC Sports Advisors

EARLY BETS

Dodgers de los Angeles -220

Mon.4-1
Tue. 3-1

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bankroll full card

10* balt +1.5 -140
5* atlanta -115
4* Laa +16-
3* yanks/tor un 8.5
2* sd/ari un 8.5

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"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee won on Tuesday with the Mets -$140/Fightin Phillies.

For Wednesday "Mr Chalk" likes two the 2nd "Chalkest" game on the board the Dodgers -$230/Cubs and for $50 the Pirates -$160/Brewers.

"Mr Chalk" is 3-1 +$260 for the week 86-49 +$1085 for the 2013 MLB season.

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Jimmy Boyd

5* (MLB) Colorado Rockies ML -104

4* (MLB) St Louis Cardinals ML -153