8-30-13

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BookBreakers - 8/30

2:20PM Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs
Philadelphia Phillies +123

7:05PM St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates -121

7:35PM Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves -136

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Burns MAIN EVENT

SMU

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bankroll full card

10* ttech/smu over 60
5* redsox -1.5 +105
5* balt +120
4* mich st -28
3* sd/dodgers over 7
2* fau/mia under 53.5

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Northcoast

top opinion and marquis play smu +5/5.5
top opinion -- tv play fla at +31.5

small college n. Ari +34

no star rated plays today

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Sportswagers CFL

Today's Free Picks for Aug 30, 2013





Hamilton @ B.C. LIONS
B.C. LIONS -6 -108 over Hamilton

We’re always looking to buy-low and sell-high and this game fits that philosophy to a tee. Hamilton has won three straight while the Lions, as a 10-point favorite a week ago, lost outright in Montreal. Hamilton’s stock has greatly increased over the past month while the Lions’ stock continues to sink. Hamilton is now 4-4 on the year and just a game back of the Argonauts for first place in the East. What doesn’t show up in the standings is that Hamilton has three wins against Winnipeg and one against Edmonton. Combined, that pair is 2-14. Despite playing the CFL’s weakest schedule thus far, the Ti-Cats defense has allowed more points than every team except for Edmonton, Winnipeg and Montreal. The perception is that the Tiger-Cats are getting in gear and ready to compete with the upper-tier clubs. We couldn’t disagree more because Hamilton’s defense is awful and once they have to start playing catch-up, Henry Burris is very prone to making bad decisions. That will come into play here.
B.C. has not played well. They are an ugly 5-3 but they will come into this game with a big chip on their shoulders after an embarrassing loss in Montreal. The Lions have also been off since last Thursday, giving them two extra days of preparation for this one. Furthermore, the Lions are still 4-0 at home with wins over Toronto, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary with the average margin of victory being by 7 points. B.C. is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball but has grossly underachieved. Taking a lot of heat in the press ever since last weeks’ loss to the Als and not blowing out any team this entire year, B.C. is primed to take out its frustrations on someone. In looking at these two teams, who appear headed in opposite directions, as a whole, this appears to be a lot of points to be spotting the Tiger-Cats. However, it’s been said for years that the CFL’s real season doesn’t start until Labour Day Weekend and that is now upon us. We’ll see how real the Lions are and it says here they flex their muscles against this very beatable intruder.


Our Pick
B.C. LIONS -6 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

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Sportswagers MLB

Today's Free Picks for Aug 30, 2013





Kansas City @ TORONTO
Kansas City -110 over TORONTO

The Blue Jays are coming off a hugely satisfying series win over the Yankees after New York made Toronto their whipping boys the entire year. The Jays don’t figure to as focused here and can now go back to their sloppy defensive play, poor managing and lousy starting pitching. Mark Buehrle needs no introductions. We all know he gets by on guile and experience but we also know that a blowup or a string of them is inevitable and can occur at any time. With pedestrian skills and numbers right across the board (4.08 ERA, .270 BAA, 1.32 WHIP), Buehrle walks a tight rope in almost every start. His strand rate over the past month is on the extreme side of lucky at 89%. He’ll now face a Royals team that is on fire in both the win column and at the plate.
K.C. has won five in a row. They’re batting .315 over that span and scored six runs or more in four of them. The Royals 34 runs over that span is second in the majors. Facing a lefty on the road is the best scenario for the Royals because they’ve have hit better on the road all season long and they’ve also hit better against lefties all year. Ervin Santana gets a strong rating here. Santana enters this matchup with a 3.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP backed up by a solid overall skill set that includes 47% groundball rate. In 11 road starts this season, Santana has allowed 57 hits in 71 frames (.215 BAA) and only four of those hits left the park. This is a cheap line to lay on Santana when you when you consider his current form, overall elite numbers and the big edge he has over his counterpart.

Our Pick
Kansas City -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)





L.A. Angels @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE +114 over L.A. Angels

The Angels are coming off a series win in Tampa but that was against a contending team with a chance to play spoiler. This is not and the Angels don’t figure to be as jacked up to play the Brewers as they were the Rays. L.A. favored in Milwaukee here is bordering on lunacy and once again we get an opportunity to fade one of the most overrated pitchers in the game. There is nothing in Weaver’s profile that says he’s worth backing. He has a 5.08 ERA over his past five starts. Over that span, covering 34 frames, Weaver has a line-drive rate of 28% and a fly-ball/groundball split of 46%/27%. Weaver’s combined fly-ball and line-drive rates is the majors worst combined percentage (73%) of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 innings pitched this season. On the road, in nine games started, Weaver is 2-4 with an ERA of 4.47. Weaver has been fooling the pundits and oddsmakers for two years now. He’s consistently been able to stave off hit%, strand%, and hr/f regression over his career but his margin for error keeps getting smaller and smaller. Weaver’s fastball velocity has bottomed out at 86.6 MPH and at this park against this strong hitting line-up that plays very well at home, Weaver is likely in for another disaster or something pretty damn close.
Wily Peralta owns skills that have improved across-the-board since the All-Star Break. Since the break, Peralta’s strikeouts are up 1½ per game to 7 per 9 IP his walks are down 1 per game to 2½ per 9 IP and his groundball rate is up 8% to an elite 60% on the season. Also since the break, Peralta’s average fastball velocity is 94.7 MPH with a swinging strike rate of 10.3% (the league average is 8.8%). Peralta’s overall numbers or surface stats are the result of a brutal start in April and May. After his May 27 start, Peralta’s ERA was 6.35. His ERA today is 4.51. His ERA in July was 2.13 and while he’s likely to battle inconsistency, Peralta has the skills to thrive in any game. There is nothing but profit potential in the Brewers/Peralta combination and you can double those sentiments when said combo is playing at Miller Park. Wrong side favored here.

Our Pick
MILWAUKEE +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)





Baltimore @ N.Y. YANKEES
Baltimore +120 over N.Y. YANKEES

The Yankees are once again struggling at the plate with three runs or fewer in five of their past six games. That includes two games at the Rogers Center over the past three games, a venue that has been a haven for hitter’s the entire year. C.C. Sabathia has thrown 200+ innings each of the previous six seasons and he’s thrown 178 this year. Sabathia hit the DL twice (groin, elbow) last season and visited Dr. Andrews after the season. Sabathia is an “old” 33, much like a boxer that has been in too many wars at a young age. It’s not like Sabathia is in great shape either. Hide his face and he looks like Bartolo Colon out there. Has this heavy workload caught up to him? Sabathia’s xERA says he hasn't been this bad, but there are still huge warning signs. His velocity declined from 93.6 mph to 92.4 mph from '11 and '12, and he's lost another tick this season (91 mph). At the same time, he's throwing his slider less, so relying even more heavily on his depleted fastball (36% in '12 to 41% in '13) and his strikeout rate has taken a hit. Sabathia’s hr/f% hasn't regressed as expected but don’t be surprised to see some jacks allowed in the final month. Sabathia is also seeing a decreasing strand%. What's most troubling is Sabathia’s hard-hit balls %, which is at a career-high 34%, suggesting he's become more hittable (.273 oppBA confirms that fact). Sabathia's skills are in deterioration mode. This slide is to be expected from a player who's been a workhorse for so many years and his post-All-Star break skills leave us skeptical that things are going to improve. C.C. Sabathia is burned out and frustrated.
At age 29, Miguel Gonzalez is in his prime; what you see is what you get. While he’s not going to blow people away, he does well enough to serve as a solid, middle-of-the-rotation option. He remains a solid, if not overwhelmingly dominant, starter. He’s posted a 57%/7% quality start/disaster start split in 22 starts, compared to 47%/20% in 2012. He’s also been sharp over his last five starts with a 8/20 BB/K split over 24 frames. That said, this one isn’t about backing Gonzalez, although he’s reliable. It’s all about fading an overvalued Yankee squad with Sabathia on the hill against one of the deadliest offenses in the game. Definite overlay.

Our Pick
Baltimore +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

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Sportswagers CFB

Today's Free Picks for Aug 30, 2013





Western Michigan @ MICHIGAN ST
MICHIGAN STATE -28 -101 over Western Michigan

We usually avoid these types of games but this one warrants a play. The Broncos have a new coaching staff and lost several key personnel on both offense and defense. This was a defense that allowed almost 400 yards against and they are worse this season. Additionally, a weak offensive line also got weaker, as Western returns just one starter from that group. This is a Broncos team in transition that is going to need at least two or three games to get things in sync and function as a cohesive unit.
Meanwhile, Michigan State's offense returns virtually every key member except for All-Big Ten running back Le'Veon Bell. The Spartans went 7-6 last year but five of its losses came by four points or less, including two in the final seconds and one in double-overtime. They could have easily finished 11-2 and they’re primed to make an impact this season. Defensively, the Spartans ranked fourth in the nation last year by allowing a frugal 274 average yards per game and that group returns seven starters after allowing just 16.3 points per game. Offensively, MSU might be a bit more challenged than a year ago but that is not going to matter in this one and its offensive line is experienced and poised to manhandle the Broncos. Again, Western has a new staff and just suffered an injury to its best offensive weapon in camp. Big numbers like this can make underdogs seem appealing versus favorites without explosive offenses, but four touchdowns isn't all that much when the 'dog can't score. The Spartans have a debt to collect from last year’s many close calls and the Broncos will pay that debt off on opening night.

Our Pick
MICHIGAN STATE -28 -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

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SB Professor NCAAF 3.0 picks

Friday 8/30
8 PM
153. Texas Tech -4

Saturday 8/31
12 PM
175. Purdue +11 (mostly 10.5's but system recommends 1/2 pt. buy)

3:30 PM
166. Northern Illinois +3

7 PM
177. Kentucky -4

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 8/30
SMU +4 over Texas Tech

(System Record: 127-5, Lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 127-117

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Stephen Nover | CFB Side - Friday, Aug 30 2013 8:00PM
154 SMU 6.0(-110) Hilton vs 153 Texas Tech triple-dime bet

Stephen Nover | CFB Total - Sunday, Sep 1 2013 6:00PM
217 Colorado / 218 Colorado St. OVER 49.0 Bookmaker.com double-dime bet

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TMC Sports Advisors

Pirates Pittsburgh -115

Boston -170

Kansas City -110

Baltimore +1.5 -170


Mon.4-1
Tue. 3-1
Wed. 3-2
Thu. 3-1

13-5 This Week

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9xSports

(NCAA Football) 8:00PM FLORIDA ATLANTIC+31.5

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GoodFella

Friday Night MLB Team Total

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS - OVER 4 RUNS (@BOL)

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Chicago Cubs

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RIVER CITY SPORTS SYNDICATE

CFB
Texas Tech Red Raiders at SMU Mustangs
8 PM EST – Gerald Ford Stadium
Current Line – Texas Tech -5.5

Both these teams are fairly young with TT returning 13 starters and SMU 11. TT likes to sling it and with new head coach Kingsbury, we expect that to continue. We just don’t know if he has the personnel to pull it off this early in the season. June Jones leads a Jekyll and Hyde club that last year was only 1-5 vs. eventual bowl teams in 2012 then rolled Fresno St by 33 in their bowl. So which team will show up in 2013 ? We really like home dogs in these situations, and SMU is 6-1 the last 4 years as a home dog and have won their last 5 home openers. The line continues to move to SMU. What do the Sharps say?
Sharps Play – 2 UNIT PLAY ON
SMU+5.5

2-0 yesterday