Tweet
-
Today's NFL Picks
Baltimore at Denver
The Broncos are seeking revenge from last years playoff loss to the Ravens and look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 Thursday games. Denver is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/3)Game 451-452: Baltimore at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.325; Denver 142.477
Dunkel Line: Denver by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 48
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Under -
Fastest & Slowest Starters to the NFL Betting Season
Week 1 of the NFL schedule is quickly approaching and teams and coaches are fine-tuning their games, looking to peak just before the season opener.
Some NFL teams have been consistent strong starters while others have stumbled out of the gate each year. Here are the best and worst bets in the first three games of the season over the past three years:
Quickest starters
Houston Texans (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS over first three games since 2010)
The Texans were a profitable 3-0 SU and ATS through the first three weeks of the 2012 schedule, taking cake-walk wins over Jacksonville and Miami before holding off the Broncos in Denver in Week 3. This season, Houston plays two of its first three contests on the road – at San Diego on Monday night in Week 1(-3) and at Baltimore in Week 3 (+2.5) – bookending a home date with Tennessee in Week 2 (-7.5).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS over first three games since 2010)
The Bucs started 1-2 SU last year but covered in all three of those games, prompting a profitable year for Tampa Bay bettors, who finished 10-5-1 ATS. The Buccaneers were underdogs in losses at New York and Dallas in Weeks 2 and 3 and opened the schedule with a home win over Carolina. Tampa Bay kicks off 2013 with a road trip to play the Jets (-2.5), at home to the Saints in Week 2 (+1.5) and at New England in Week 3 (+7.5).
Atlanta Falcons (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS over first three games since 2010)
The Falcons are classic fast starters but have fallen on their faces at the end of the season and playoffs. Atlanta was 3-0 SU and ATS to open 2012 thanks to some short spreads, winning at Kansas City as a 1-point fave, beating Denver at home as 3-point chalk and knocking off the Bolts on the road as a field-goal dog. The Falcons’ first three weeks of 2013 feature an opener at New Orleans (+2.5), a home game vs. St. Louis (-7), and a visit to Miami in Week 3 (+1).
Slowest starters
Philadelphia Eagles (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS over first three games since 2010)
Philadelphia’s struggles in 2012 were well documented by the media, going 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS versus the likes of Cleveland, Baltimore and Arizona in the first three weeks. The Eagles only managed to come through for bettors three times all season. This time around, Philly visits Washington (+4.5) on Monday night in Week 1 then is back home to host San Diego (-2.5) and Kansas City (-3) on Thursday Night Football. With a new head coach and system in place, the Eagles could be doomed for another slow start.
Denver Broncos (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS over first three games since 2010)
Even with Peyton Manning under center, the Broncos couldn’t avoid a third straight 1-2 SU and ATS start to the season in 2012. Denver needed an epic comeback versus Pittsburgh in Week 1, and lost at Atlanta and vs. Houston the following weeks. Peyton & Co. have another tough go-around to open 2013, hosting Baltimore in the Thursday night opener (-8.5), visiting the Giants for the “Manning Bowl” in Week 2 (-1) and welcoming Oakland to Mile High on Monday night in Week 3 (-13.5). That’s a lot of chalk for Broncos bettors to deal with.
New Orleans Saints (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS over first three games since 2010)
New Orleans is putting 2012 in the rearview, opening the schedule in the shadow of “Bounty Gate” with a 0-3 SU and ATS blemish. The Saints didn’t have the biggest uphill climb either, losing to Washington, Carolina and Kansas City. Sean Peyton is back on the sideline and game planning for a Week 1 home showdown with Atlanta (-2.5), a trip to Tampa Bay in Week 2 (-1.5), and a home date vs. Arizona in Week 3 (-7.5). Books are expecting big things in the Big East this year.
Other notables:
Carolina Panthers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)
San Diego Chargers (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS)
San Francisco 49ers (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)Comment
-
Three NFL Teams Sharps are Fading this Offseason
Not one single snap has been taken in the 2013 NFL season but plenty of sharp handicappers already have their minds made up on a handful of teams.
With the release of early odds, like win totals, Games of the Year, and futures, bettors can voice their opinion well before Week 1 of the schedule. We talked to sportsbooks and pro handicappers about which NFL teams are being faded by the wiseguys this summer.
Sharps don’t like…
New England Patriots
Win total: 11 (Over +115)
Division odds: -400
Super Bowl odds: +800
It’s been a crappy offseason for the Patriots. Wes Welker jumped ship to Denver, Rob Gronkowski is still not 100 percent, and the less we say about Aaron Hernandez’s summer the better. Tom Brady lost his three favorite targets. Can Bill Belichick “Belichick” New England out of this mess?
Expert opinion: Michael Stewart, CarbonSports, “Our biggest move so far is the Pats, for all the reasons you think of. They've lost two of their best receivers in Hernandez (jail), Welker (Broncos) and with Gronk not 100 percent going into Week 1, many people are down on them. We've gone from 11.5 (Under -130) to 11 (Under -145), which is a monster move for an NFL season win total.”
Baltimore Ravens
Win total: 8.5 (Over -140)
Division odds: +200
Super Bowl odds: +3,000
Sharps are treating the Ravens Super Bowl title as lightning in a bottle – a one-time run. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are gone, leaving an aging Terrell Suggs and QB Joe Flacco to pick up the leadership slack. Baltimore did add LB Elvis Dumervil to improve the pass rush but loss eight starters from that championship roster.
Expert opinion: Bruce Marshall, “We’ll see if the subtle adjustment made by offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, allowing QB Joe Flacco more audible freedom after Cam Cameron’s December dismissal, keeps Flacco soaring as he was late last season when tossing 15 touchdowns and only one pick in the last seven games during the Ravens’ Super Bowl run.”
Indianapolis Colts
Win total: 8.5 (Over -125)
Divisional odds: +240
Super Bowl odds: +4,000
The Colts proved everyone wrong in 2012, riding rookie QB Andrew Luck and drawing inspiration from head coach Chuck Pagano’s battle with leukemia to win 11 games and make the postseason cut. Indianapolis was lucky in a lot off those close games, something sharps aren’t counting on in 2013.
Expert opinion: Marc Lawrence, “Indy ran into all sorts of good 'Luck' last season winning nine of their 11 games by a touchdown or less, including seven victories by four or less points. A nine-game improvement from a two-win team in 2011 far exceeded expectations. Expect a combination of sophomore blues by Andrew Luck and a serious bounce to leave the Colts losers in 2013."Comment
-
NFL Top 3: Teams Shallow at Skill Positions
With cut day now behind us, all 32 NFL teams have settled on their initial 53-man rosters for the coming season. And while most clubs had little trouble purging their rosters, the cuts - combined with a lack of initial depth - have left a handful of teams short at key offensive positions.
Here are three units in need of a few extra skill players:
Buffalo Bills quarterbacks
With E.J. Manuel expected to miss the opener with a left knee injury and Kevin Kolb's career possibly over due to concussion issues, undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel is slated to start under center in the Bills' season opener against the New England Patriots. Manuel is considered Buffalo's QB of the future, but it might not hurt to find an experienced backup to replace Kolb.
Free-agent options: Vince Young, John Skelton, Tim Tebow
Baltimore Ravens running backs
It isn't that the Ravens will struggle in the backfield - Ray Rice is one of the most talented running backs in the league, and Bernard Pierce is a capable backup. But here's the problem: As of Sunday's 53-man roster deadline, Rice and Pierce are the only running backs on the Baltimore roster. Expect a depth addition in the coming days.
Free-agent options: Michael Turner, Lance Ball, Jonathan Dwyer
Detroit Lions receivers
When you boast the league's most explosive receiver in Calvin Johnson, it's hard to consider the position a weak spot. But with the ordinary Nate Burleson and project Ryan Broyles behind him, Detroit could stand to benefit from having another elite pass-catcher - particularly if Johnson struggles or suffers an injury.Comment
-
Does High-Scoring NFL Preseason Give Value to Week 1 Overs?
If the high-scoring preseason storm clouds are any indication, NFL teams will be raining down points during the 2013 regular season.
The NFL’s exhibition schedule has produced an unusual amount of high-scoring games in August, helping fans of the Over cash in at a near 60 percent rate (60.32%) during the preseason. That flood of “overs” has caught the eye of one NFL handicapper, who is bracing for a surplus of scoring this season.
“First impression from the preseason is that with a plethora of scoring, a new standard will likely be set on NFL totals this season,” Marc Lawrence says. “In a pass-happy league, the oddsmakers were forced to raise the bar last season. With other teams now toying with the pistol, the roof could be blown open this season.”
Scoring has steadily climbed the past few seasons, from teams averaging 21.5 points per game in 2009, 22.0 in 2010, 22.2 in 2011, and 22.8 in 2012. More NFL teams are turning to up-tempo, pass-heavy attacks, leaving only three teams that ran more than passed last year. Eleven teams threw the ball on more than 60 percent of their plays, compared to just three the previous season.
Oddsmakers are making the necessary adjustments to the 2013 totals. The average over/under on the 2012 Week 1 board was just below 44 points, with teams posting a 9-7 over/under count in the opening slate. This season, the average Week 1 total is almost 45.5 points.
“Totals have gone up quite a bit overall,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook. “This is the first season that I can remember that every game has a total of at least 40 points. Main reason behind this is that more and more teams are pass-first type offenses.”
Perry says the eye-opening Over trend in the preseason doesn’t have any impact on the regular season totals, stating that these results are coming with third and fourth-string players on the field. He also notes the common belief that Week 1 totals are usually lower compared to the rest of season, due to the fact that many offenses are still working out their timing in the opening weeks of the schedule.
“We do consider that some teams are still fine tuning their offense, so we may not have the total as high as you may think,” he says, pointing to the New York Jets’ QB troubles.
New York hosts Tampa Bay in Week 1 with a total between 39.5 and 40 points on the board – the lowest Week 1 number. The highest over/under goes to the NFC South showdown between Atlanta and New Orleans, which has garnered a total of 54 points.
According to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports, there hasn’t been a significant lean toward the Over when it comes to the early Week 1 action. Of the 16 games on the board, only seven have taken more money on the Over than the Under with one game split down the middle.
The New England Patriots were the top Over bet in the NFL last year, posting an 11-5 over/under mark. The Patriots passed the ball on 57 percent of their offensive plays and ran a league-high 74.3 plays per game with their no-huddle offense. The total is set at 49 for their opening game against the Buffalo Bills, despite the Bills QB issues this summer.Comment
-
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 1
Thursday, September 5
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALTIMORE (14 - 6) at DENVER (13 - 4) - 9/5/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasonsComment
-
NFL
Week
Trend Report
Thursday, September 5
8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DENVER
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against BaltimoreComment
-
NFL
Week 1
Ravens @ Broncos—Baltimore hit 70-yard TD pass in last minute to force OT and stun Broncos here in LY’s playoffs, but Lewis/Reed/Boldin/Pitta are all gone, and Denver (12-1 in last 13 home openers, 9-4 vs spread) has revenge motive for season opener. Broncos will miss suspended LB Miller; they were 6-1 vs spread as HFs LY, after being 5-24-2 from ‘06-’11; addition of Welker at WR should make their offense even better. Ravens covered five of last seven road openers, are 11-6 as regular season road dogs under Harbaugh, which doesn’t include three road covers in LY’s playoffs. First time in decade Super Bowl champs open on road; ’03 Bucs won 17-0 at Philly in similar scenario decade ago. Last ten SB champs are 6-2-2 vs spread in season opener the next year.Comment
-
Steve Fezzik
WEEK 1
Steelers -6.5
Giants +3
Patriots - UNDER 52.5 (free pick)
Panthers +3.5
Steelers To WIN AFC NORTH +175Comment
-
NCAA Football Game Picks
Florida Atlantic at East Carolina
The Owls look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 road games. Florida Atlantic is the pick (+20 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by only 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+20 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
Time Posted: 11:00 p.m. EST (9/3)Game 301-302: Florida Atlantic at East Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 71.149; East Carolina 81.509
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 10 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 20 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+20 1/2); UnderComment
-
Chris Justice
Over 54 east carolinaComment
-
Week 1 Line Moves
By Kevin Rogers
Some of the biggest line moves we'll see will happen in Week 1 after the initial numbers were released back in the spring. The LVH (Las Vegas Hotel and Casino) Sportsbook has made the proper adjustments heading into the season opening games as we'll take a look at why some of these games moved.
Patriots at Bills
LVH Opener: New England -7
Current Line: New England -9½
The Bills were leaning towards rookie E.J. Manuel as their opening day quarterback, but a minor knee surgery put the former Florida State standout on the shelf. Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion during the preseason, opening the door for ex-Washington State quarterback Jeff Tuel to get the starting nod in Week 1.
Buccaneers at Jets
LVH Opener: Pick-em
Current Line: Tampa Bay -3½
It's rare to see the Bucs listed in the road favorite role, but the quarterback issues in New York caused the line move. Mark Sanchez will sit out the opener after injuring his shoulder in the third preseason game, as rookie Geno Smith is set to make his debut in Week 1. Also, former Jets' cornerback Darrelle Revis will face his old team as a member of the Bucs following a torn ACL suffered last season.
Chiefs at Jaguars
LVH Opener: Kansas City -2½
Current Line: Kansas City -3½
The Jaguars look to be one of the bigger disasters in the NFL this season with their substandard quarterback play. Blaine Gabbert missed the final two games of the preseason, but the Jacksonville quarterback is hoping to play on Sunday.
Vikings at Lions
LVH Opener: Detroit -3
Current Line: Detroit -5
The money is starting to pour in on the Lions, who finished last season at a disappointing 4-12. Minnesota swept Detroit last season, but the Vikings stumbled to a 1-3 mark in the preseason.
Raiders at Colts
LVH Opener: Indianapolis -7
Current Line: Indianapolis -9½
Oakland is unsure about its starting quarterback heading into Sunday's matchup, but early indication is Terrelle Pryor will start ahead of Matt Flynn. Also, plenty of public money is headed the Colts way following their return to the playoffs last season.
Cardinals at Rams
LVH Opener: St. Louis -6
Current Line: St. Louis -5
St. Louis had its struggles in the preseason, as the improved NFC West will look for a boost from the Rams and Cardinals at the bottom of the division. Arizona won three of four exhibition games, while seeking revenge after getting swept by St. Louis in 2012.
Eagles at Redskins
LVH Opener: Washington -5½
Current Line: Washington -3½
The Redskins will start Robert Griffin III at quarterback just nine months after tearing his ACL in the playoff defeat to the Seahawks. The Eagles will stick with Michael Vick under center as Philadelphia hopes to use the uptempo offense of Chip Kelly to try and stun the Redskins.Comment
-
Game of the Day: Ravens at Broncos
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 48)
The Denver Broncos have had nearly eight months to stew over a stunning season-ending loss in January - one that propelled the Baltimore Ravens on their surprising run to a Super Bowl championship. Denver has a chance to exact some revenge when they host the Ravens on Thursday night in the NFL's season-opening game. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning had won nine straight against the Ravens, including a 17-point rout a month earlier, before Baltimore's 38-35 double-overtime playoff victory.
Much has changed for both teams since Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco averted a certain defeat with a 70-yard tying touchdown strike to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds to play in regulation. Baltimore has undergone a dramatic roster overhaul, with future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis sliding into retirement, perennial Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed lost to free agency and the trade of Super Bowl hero Anquan Boldin to San Francisco. Flacco became the league's highest-paid player, while Denver added some key pieces to fortify Manning's offense.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE: The Broncos opened at -9 and were bet up as large as -10.5 at some books. Recent action has been on the Ravens and has dropped the spread to as low as -7 at some markets. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.
WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of thunderstorms in Denver with temperatures in the mid 80s and winds blowing south at 5 mph.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (2012: 10-6, tied for first AFC North, 6-9-1 ATS): Flacco's regular-season numbers were ordinary - 3,817 yards with 22 TD passes and 10 interceptions - but he was off the charts in the postseason with 11 scoring passes and zero picks en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Third-year speedster Torrey Smith heads an inexperienced receiving corps that suffered a jolt when starting tight end Dennis Pitta dislocated his hip, putting his season in jeopardy. Ray Rice has rushed for at least 1,143 yards in four straight seasons and leads all NFL backs with 278 receptions during that span, but questions abound on a defense that surrendered nearly five points more per game in 2012 than in the previous season.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2012: 13-3, first AFC West, 10-6 ATS): Manning guided Denver to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season after sitting out 2011 due to multiple neck surgeries. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker both went over 1,000 yards and combined for 179 catches and 23 touchdowns and will be joined by reception machine Wes Welker, who had at least 111 catches in five of six seasons with New England. Rookie running back Montee Ball set the FBS record for career touchdowns but will open the season as the backup to Ronnie Hillman. Denver also has a huge void to plug on defense after sack-master Von Miller was suspended six games for violating the league's drug policy.
TRENDS:
* Ravens are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Denver.
* Under is 5-1 in Broncos' last six Thursday games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Manning's 37 TD passes and 4.659 yards last season were both the second-highest totals of his storied career.
2. Baltimore's John Harbaugh is the first coach to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons.
3. Ravens DE Elvis Dumervil, a three-time Pro Bowler with Denver, wound up signing with Baltimore in March after his signed contract agreement with the Broncos arrived just minutes after the league deadline.Comment
-
Jimmy Boyd
3* (NFL) Baltimore Ravens+8Comment
Comment