9-5-13

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WINNING POINTS

MLB
BEGINNING THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 5
Boston at N.Y.Yankees (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
This is shaping up as a critical series for the Yankees, though overtaking Boston for the AL East crown is unlikely.The team looks more representative now as they pursue a wild-card berth, with key veterans finally back in the lineup. They’ve been very profitable vs. lefthanders in 2013 (+$835 so far) and they’re expected to face both
Felix Doubront & Jon Lester in the Bronx this weekend.The Red Sox are reasonably comfortable atop the division standings,so there’s less urgency for them to prevail here.
BEST BET: Yankees vs. lefthanders.

Chicago W. Sox at Baltimore (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles averted an ugly sweep in New York last weekend, and they remain very viable in the AL wildcard hunt. They’ve been an offensive juggernaut here at Camden Yards, particularly against righthanders (5.2 runs per game) with a nice overall profit vs. righties in 2013 (+$940). The White Sox enjoyed a decent run in late August, but they’ve resumed their losing ways, suffering a sweep at Fenway Park this past weekend.They’ve been a huge money-burner overall, and their numbers outside of US Cellular are horrendous (only 24-45, -$1605).
BEST BET: Orioles vs. righthanders.

Houston at Oakland (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Astros rank dead last in the AL in both pitching (4.82 ERA) and hitting (.239 team BA) and they are only 3-12 vs. the Athletics in head to head play (+$455). But they’ve come up with a pair of exciting young righthanders in Brett Oberholtzer (+$780, 1.98 ERA in six starts) and Jarred Cosart (+$215, 1.59 in eight starts) who have scored huge profits when posted as heavy underdogs. Both are slated to see action at Oakland this weekend, with the Athletics no doubt posted as prohibitive favorites.
BEST BET: Oberholtzer/Cosart.

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PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE

NFL
DENVER over Baltimore by 6
Here we go again. The kickoff of the 2013 season rematches last season’s
AFC Division playoff bout, a game in which the Ravens stunned the
heavily favored Broncos, 38-35 in double overtime, on this fi eld in a
game that seemed like it was destined to never end. It was setup when
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco hit Jacoby Jones with a 70-yard strike with
31-seconds remaining in regulation. The Flacco fl ing forced OT and the
rest is history, culminating in a Super Bowl win by the Ravens. It was a
football game that, according to Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh,
“did football proud.” It also set the table for this lid-lifter. As a result,
revenge will be fi rst and foremost on the minds of QB Peyton Manning
and his teammates. The question that begs to be answered is – at what
price? In a tale of the tape, perhaps herein lie some of the answers. The
last thirteen defending Super Bowl cham2pions are 12-1 SU and 8-3-2
ATS in season openers, while the Ravens stand 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in this
series this century. Furthermore, defending champs are 11-2 ATS as dogs
of more than 5 points since 1996, including 6-0 ATS the last six (yes, pride
does play a big factor). On the quarterback front, Manning is 9-3 SU and
8-4 ATS against the Black Birds. He was riding a 8-0 SUATS win skein in
Raven rumbles until the playoff faux pas. Manning is also 10-4 SU and 8-5-
1 ATS in season openers, and 3-1 SUATS in head-to-head contests against
Flacco. Super Bowl Joe enters 5-0 SUATS in his career in season-opening
frays and 3-1 SUATS against the Broncos. Flacco is also 2-0 SUATS as a dog
of 8 or more points, with both victories coming in last year’s playoffs. The
bottom line is this… when push comes to shove, quality teams taking
more than a touchdown are an automatic. Denver gets its win. We ring
the register. Cha-ching!

CFB
EAST CAROLINA over Fla Atlantic by 27
ECU opened the season with a 52-38 win over FBS newbie Old Dominion
for Captain Ruffi n McNeill but there’s no denying the ol’ Pirate ship
sprung some serious leaks before game’s end. McNeill was rightly
concerned that his defense got torpedoed for a whopping 460 total yards
but even more troublesome was the fact that the hosts gained a mere 41
rushing yards on 19 carries. Fortunately, ECU QB Shane Carder was dead
on target throughout the contest, connecting on 46 of 54 passes for 5
TDs, 447 aerial yards and zero interceptions. The Pirates’ offensive line
will have a chance to redeem themselves versus a Florida Atlantic rush ‘D’
that had its doors blown off by Miami Florida last week (Canes rushed for
303 yards and averaged 8 YPR). In terms of relative team experience, East
Carolina is defi nitely fi nah. Not only do the Greenville Bucs return the
2nd-highest number of returning starts for FBS teams this season (355) –
including 215 from last season – 25 seniors and 24 juniors (50.5% upper
classmen) dominate the roster of this veteran squad. FAU actually gets
the better of this matchup in the ATS department: the Owls are 4-1 SUATS
versus Conference-USA foes, 4-0 ATS away off a road game under HC Carl
Pelini and 6-1 ATS in their last seven weekday games (compare that to the
sea bandits’ weak 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS record in Thursday tilts). However,
despite FAU’s better pointspread numbers, the feeling here is that ECU is
a team on the come while the Owls may have came and went after their
clash with big brother UM. And while one would think a possible lookahead
to a bigger game with Virginia Tech might be a concern, note that
the Pirates are 6-0 ATS of late in lined games before Hokie hookups. Owls
get fricasseed for a second straight week.

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Chicago Syndicate

Top Plays

NFL - Ravens

MLB
Cardinals/Reds Over 8
Royals
Red Sox

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LA Syndicate

Top Plays

NFL - Ravens

MLB
Giants
Royals
Rays

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KING CREOLE from pregame

double-dime bet

451 BAL / 452 DEN OVER 48.0 5dimesAnalysis:
8:30pm ET - 5:30pm PT / #451-452 / BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DENVER BRONCOS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

The OU line for Game One of the 2013 NFL season opened at 47 points. As of Tuesday, it was up to 48 to 48.5 points. You'll want to get your play in ASAP as this line figures to RISE by the time they kick it off on Thursday night. And the weather forecast looks great for a Game One SHOOTOUT.

Game One ‘BLAST OFF’! We’ll be going OVER the Total in the very first game of the season, as the mighty Broncos look for some Playoff revenge against the defending Super Bowl champions. Last year’s game between these two teams totaled a whopping 73 points. And this BALTIMORE / DENVER series has gone 3-0 O/U in the last 3 meetings (57.3 ppg). Denver is laying a sizable amount of points in this game (in addition to the€ high OU Line). At last look, Denver was -7 to -8 points.
5-0 O/U L4Y: All GAME ONE home favs of -7 > pts (DEN) with an OU line of > 44 points.

In fact, this combo of a Big spread and Big OU line has led to 89% Overs in every game (not just Week One).
8-1 O/U s’2007: ALL non-div conference BIG home favs of -7 > pts w/ an OU line of 48 > pts.

NFL teams who won a LOT of games the previous year have come out BLAZIN’ in their first game.
10-2 O/U L2Y: All GAME ONE home teams who won 10 > games last season (DEN).

Next up, we query our NFL database for any OU patterns that might apply for this particular Day of the Week.
6-1 O/U last 3 years: All THURSDAY non-division games (BAL @ DEN) with an OU line of > 46 points (avg PPG: 61.3!).

The host Broncos are in the AFC West Division while the Ravens are in the AFC North Division. A HIGH-scoring result is usually the case in these games depending on the site.
10-2 O/U since 2006: All AFC WEST home favs (DEN) versus any AFC NORTH opponent (BALT).

From a team-trend perspective:
The RAVENS went 5-1 O/U last year in ‘expected’ HIGH-scoring games with an OU line of > 47 pts (58.2 ppg). In addition, BALTIMORE is 6-1-1 O/U when priced as BIG dogs of +6 >pts... 4-0-1 O/U away bef BB HG... and 4-1 O/U before playing the Browns.

DENVER is a perfect 8-0 O/U vs the AFC North... 4-0 O/U as non-div favs of 7 > pts... and 4-1-1 O/U in their first home game of the year.

Your Game One ‘Mile HIGH’ final score: 34 to 27.

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Fezzik
451 balt @ 9; lean ov 48

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RTG Sports - Denver Broncos -7.5

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LA Syndicate Adds NFL Regular Play - Ravens/Broncos Over 48

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Cingrani is 3-2, 2.41 in his last six starts.
-- Cahill is 2-0, 3.22 in his last four outings.

-- Guthrie is 1-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts.
-- Peavy is 2-1, 1.95 in his last four starts. Nova is 4-0, 2.08 in his last six.
-- White Sox won last three Quintana starts (1-0, 3.38).
-- Price is 5-1, 2.80 in his last nine starts.
-- Gray is 2-0, 0.83 in his three home starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Lynn is 0-4, 7.45 in his last five starts.
-- Vogelsong is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three starts.

-- Saunders is 1-3, 7.80 in his last five starts.
-- Gonzalez is 0-4, 8.71 in his last six starts.
-- Williams is 0-3, 5.53 in his last five starts.
-- Peacock is 2-4, 6.34 in his last seven starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Lynn 7-28; Cingrani 4-16
-- Cahill 4-20 (0 of last 8); Vogelsong 6-14

-- Saunders 9-28; Guthrie 7-28 (1 of last 8)
-- Peavy 2-19 (0 of 6 with Bos); Nova 5-15 (1 of last 7)
-- Quintana 9-27; Gonzalez 5-26 (1 of last 10)
-- Price 6-21 (1 of last 8); Williams 6-20 (1 of last 6)
-- Peacock 3-10 (0 of last 4); Gray 2-5

Totals
-- Seven of last eight St Louis road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Arizona games stayed under the total.

-- Five of last six Seattle games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Bronx games went over the total.
-- Last four White Sox games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Angel games.
-- Seven of last ten Houston games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Royals won seven of their last nine games.
-- Bronx won eleven of its last sixteen games. Red Sox won eight of their last ten games.
-- Angels won eight of their last eleven games.
-- A's won nine of their last eleven games.

Cold teams
-- St Louis lost four of its last six games. Reds are 3-6 in their last nine.
-- Giants lost ten of their last sixteen games. Arizona lost four of its last six.

-- Mariners lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- White Sox lost their last four games. Baltimore lost six of last nine.
-- Tampa Bay lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Houston lost seven of its last ten games.

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bookiemonsters

141-93 run

17-10-1 run last 28 plays

pod white sox game over 8.5

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Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -105 over NY Yanks
(System Record: 73-7, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 73-79-2

Football Crusher
Denver -7.5 over Baltimore
(System Record: 8-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 8-6

Soccer Crusher
Sao Paulo + Criciuma OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 449-15, lost last game)
Overall Record: 449-390-59

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Today's MLB Picks

Boston at NY Yankees

The Red Sox look to take advantage of a New York team that is 2-6 in Ivan Nova's last 8 starts as an underdog. Boston is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 5 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.407; Cincinnati (Cingrani) 15.519 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+125); Over

Game 953-954: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 13.558; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.550 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under

Game 955-956: Seattle at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 15.675; Kansas City (Guthrie) 14.547 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-160); 9 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+140); Over

Game 957-958: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 17.065; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.509 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Under

Game 959-960: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 14.981; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.387 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-165); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-165); Under

Game 961-962: Tampa Bay at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.362; LA Angels (Williams) 16.359 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+155); Over

Game 963-964: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 13.688; Oakland (Gray) 16.049 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Oakland (-260); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-260); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1090-821(57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Thurs Balt -165

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Reds -145

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Cappers Access

Broncos -7.5
Orioles(RL) -1.5(+125)