9-5-13

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ATS Insiders Club

NFL
Baltimore/Denver OVER 48

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Betting As A Business

Today's Free Pick: MLB

Arizona (Cahill) -102 San Francisco (Vogelsong) 10:15 ET
1.25 Units (Play ON ARIZONA)

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Sportswagers NFL

Today's Free Picks for Sep 05, 2013





Baltimore @ DENVER
DENVER -7½ +109 over Baltimore

Almost every year there is a team of destiny which just wins in spite of what is expected and that gets the right calls, bouncing balls and a sense of chemistry that seems to just appear later in the season. Not that the Ravens were a bad team, but they ended the year as the best of all and that’s all that matters. Don’t expect lightning to strike twice. The Ravens get to re-assert themselves now with different personnel and show that it was no fluke and that the NFL is not just a reality show scripted by Ray Lewis. The Ravens went into 2012 wanting Joe Flacco to prove himself before re-upping him with a new contract. That merely cost them $120 million for six years. That was a King's ransom for a quarterback who never passed for more than 3817 yards or 25 touchdowns in a season. For whatever reason, Flacco had maybe the best four games of his career in the playoffs. Flacco threw for multiple touchdowns in only three of his first 13 games until catching fire at the right time. Of the Ravens three main receivers now, they combined for only one season over 1000 yards and that was Brandon Stokley when he had that freakish year as a Colt nine years ago. Rare is so much rebuilding on a team that won it all last year but that’s precisely the situation for Baltimore this year. Dennis Pitta became Flacco's security blanket last year and scored three times in the playoffs. But he suffered a badly dislocated hip in July that may force him to miss the entire season and in all cases a good chunk of the year to start. That leaves blocking tight end Ed Dickson and 34-year old Dallas Clark who has been a non-factor since 2009. The passing game no longer has Pitta or Anquan Boldin. That's a big chunk of the offense that someone has to fill. Again, not a positive development.
The Broncos were the team to beat in the AFC last year and that is exactly what these Ravens did. Peyton Manning's first season back from neck surgery was a huge success and he brought along the entire offense with him. It was a bitter pill to swallow when the Ravens pulled out the win and don’t think the Broncos have forgotten that. Denver’s offense has even been upgraded with Wes Welker and Montee Ball in the backfield. The defense may not be quite as good for 2013, but that only means more Peyton Manning and that is always a good thing.After sitting out a year with a bad neck, Peyton Manning came back in pretty good form. His 4659 yards ranked second best in his career as did his 37 touchdowns. He never failed to throw at least one touchdown in every game and only four times did he not end up with multiple touchdown passes. He was vintage Manning while making Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker into his new version of Harrison/Wayne. And now he gets Wes Welker? And an easy schedule? Just hardly seems fair. Manning passed for 290 yards and three scores on the Ravens in the Divisional Round last year. He threw two interceptions and lost one fumble in a very uncharacteristic game. He might remember that day.
While it is early to consider any obituary for the Ravens defense, the loss of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will have some effect, perhaps not the profound negative that some believe but it’s worth noting that Bernard Pollard is also gone. That all said, the Broncos are at home here in front of the world against the team that derailed what was thought to be a certain Super Bowl bid. The Broncos make a big statement tonight and it comes at the expense of the Ravens. 7½-points may seem like a big number but that’s exactly what the oddsmakers want you to think.



Our Pick
DENVER -7½ +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)






WEEK 1 Survivor Pool
DENVER over Baltimore
NFL Survivor Pool Pick - WEEK 1
Once again this season we are going to attempt to pick one straight up winner each week while not being allowed to use the same team more than once in a season. Most people will look to the biggest favorites of the week and choose one of them and that’s a “safe” way to play but here’s the problem with that philosophy. In the unlikely event that you avoid a big upset each week and remain standing, at the end of the pool, you will end up splitting it with many others. Furthermore, when an upset occurs and you’re on that team, you will get eliminated along with 25%-35% of the remaining entrants. In other words, any favorites of seven points or more usually cover 90% of the entrants. Let’s say there are three teams that are favored by 7 points or more. Those 3 teams will be chosen by approximately 90% of the entrants in your pool or 30% each. In Week 1, Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh will likely be split up almost evenly by about 85% of your pool and that’s what we are trying to avoid.
We also avoid playing road favorites because they simply don’t win enough and they are almost always in line for an upset. Road chalk like the Bucs, Chiefs, Seahawks and Chargers in Week 1 are far too risky for our liking and that brings us to our pick: DENVER.
Yes, the Broncos are among that group of teams that are favored by 7 points or more but because it’s a Thursday night game and because they are playing the Super Bowl champs, only 20% or less of your pool entrants will be choosing them. Think you shouldn't be picking against the Super Bowl champions and their $120 million quarterback? Think again. Not only is the game at Mile High Stadium but Denver ranked as the second-most efficient team in 2012, behind only the Patriots. Denver owned the No. 2 defense in the NFL last season and although they are without Von Miller, they figure to play just as hard. The Ravens show up with less of a team than last year with notable defections/retirements on both sides of the ball. Because they are the ruling Super Bowl champs, they better get used to everyone bringing their A+ game against them. The extremely focused Broncos figure to do just that. Nobody wants to get eliminated in Week 1 and of all the “big favorites”, this one will be the least played among pool entrants and we’re suggesting it has the best chance of winning.

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Arthur Ralph

Super Pk Tampa w/ Price

Trophy Play Over total Den/Ravens

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Rocky Atkinson

CFB 302 East Carolina -20.0 (-110) 5dimes

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THE REAL ANIMAL SPORTS

Thursday free play 3* East Carolina OVER 55

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Statpicks

NFL: ravens/broncos - over 48

MLB: Cincinnati

NCAAF: Florida Atlantic +20

POD (5-5): MLB - Cincinnati

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Bryan Leonard

miami oh
boston redsox

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The Real Animal

Thursday free play is 3* East Carolina 'OVER' 55:

East Carolina last week beat Old Dominion 52-38 with a 481-460 narrow edge in total yards. ECU QB Shane Garden (formally at Texas Tech) was 46-of-54 with no picks for 447 yards. The Pirates threw it 54 times and only attempted 22 rushes. Meanwhile Monarchs QB Taylor Heinicke went 38-of-51 for 338 yards with three touchdowns also ran another in. He certainly had no trouble moving the ball on the ECU defense. East Carolina runs a no-huddle offense with a 2-1 ratio of passes to rushes. I like any total with ECU ‘OVER’ providing it’s 56 or less. The Pirates lost last year’s New Orleans Bowl to Louisiana-Lafayette 43-34. Their final six games resulted in total points of 77, 124, 51, 76, 84, and 77 points. This team averaged 31.5 a game and allowed 31.6. You know with the ESPN cameras around, the Pirates are going to want to score points. I know Florida Atlantic didn’t show much on offense last week at Miami. But it’s a different athlete on defense that plays for the Hurricanes compared to East Carolina. FAU allowed 30.8 points per game last year. They should have allowed many more points at Miami. The Hurricanes dropped several easy touchdown passes early and then also fumbled at the 1-yard line. Miami had 503 total yards scoring 34 points. They could have easily had 50. I do expect ECU to run more tonight given the fact Miami had 303 yards on the ground at nearly eight yards per carry. Last week the two-QB system for FAU was a no-go after Greg Hankerson left the Hurricane game with bruised ribs. But he’s been cleared to play tonight. I expect the Owls to put significantly more points on the board tonight. “We had a lot of big sets against Miami, played a lot of base defense,” FAU Coach Carl Pelini said. “This week we will see a lot more three wides, four wides, five wides, sometimes empty, spread the field a lot more. Very, very different offense than Miami.” My sharp house had a bump at 2:18PM ET raising the ECU total from 53 to 56! That is some serious steam! FYI: ECU is 6-0 ATS the week before facing Virginia Tech.

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Scott Spreitzer

3* Denver -7

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MajorCovers

FAU +20.5
Balt/Denver Over 48.5

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Sweetjones55

2 team NFL 7 pt. teaser: Denver pk & Indy -3

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SB Professor

no plays in 3.0 or Original systems for NCAAF or NFL

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9xSports

(NCAA Football) 7:30PM EAST CAROLINA-20

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Umpire UNDER streaker

Rob Drake NYY/BOS (11-3-1 L15)