9-5-13

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Brian Edwards

Baltimore Ravens +8

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Vegas Hot Sheet

NFL
Baltimore Ravens

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Bryan Leonard MLB Money Line Thu, 09/05/13 - 7:05 PM
double-dime bet - 957 BOS (-102) vs 958 NYY

Jake Peavy and Ivan Nova will kick off a big four-game series for both teams in the Bronx. Peavy has come as advertised for the Red Sox with a 3.18 ERA in six starts. Peavy has focused on keeping the ball down and pitching to contact rather than trying to strike hitters out and it has actually improved his overall numbers. Despite a drop in strikeouts, batters hit just .215 off of Peavy in August. That coincided with a drop in home runs allowed and Peavy's LOB% was not out of the ordinary, despite the drop in strikeouts. That seems to be a change that the Red Sox front office suggested and it has paid off handsomely. By changing speeds more effectively, Peavy turned long fly balls into pop ups, hence the increased success. Now pitching for a contender, Peavy seems to have more focus and we expect a big start from him in this game.

Ivan Nova has become the flavor of the month pitcher since his return from the DL. We're not buying it. Nova has seen a drop in strikeouts as he has shifted from throwing four-seam fastballs to throwing more sinkers. His ground ball rate went up to 57 percent in August, the highest of the season. The problem with more ground balls is that more of them go for hits and Nova was rather lucky in that regard in August. In fact, Nova has been pretty fortunate all season long. His LOB% for the year is 80.4 percent, nearly 10 percent above the annual league average. In July and August, during Nova's hot stretch, his LOB% has been 85.6 percent and 85.4 percent. That's completely unsustainable, especially coinciding with a drop in strikeouts.

We'll go with the more experienced guy with the more sustainable recent results than the guy who could be consumed by the moment and has some regression coming very soon.

PLAY: BOSTON

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Harry Bondi

College Football Free Pick

OVER 55 POINTS
East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic
7:30 p.m. ET

After a winner on Florida State over Pitt on Monday night, we are now 10-5 on our last 15 FREE PICKS. Both of these squads can score but don't play a lick of defense! East Carolina has averaged 46 points a game in their last 8 games but are giving up 34 points per game in the same time period. Last week, the Pirates put up 52 points versus Old Dominion but allowed the Monarchs to score 38. Florida Atlantic should be able to score at least that and after facing Miami's tough defense last week they should be able to torch the Pirates weak secondary. Take the OVER 55 in tonight's East Carolina - Florida Atlantic shootout.

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NO Coast Marquees Over Denver broncos 48 College Fla ATLANTIC + 21 Both games marquees

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Michael Tang (Totalsforyou)

1* Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina (4:30pm PST)

Pick: Florida Atlantic +21 @-130

2* Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants (7:15pm PST)
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML @-115

Sunday:
1* Pittsburgh Steelers/Indianapolis Colts 2 Team Teaser

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Football Sack
Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos OVER 48 ($500)

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RICH SPORTS

Leans
CHW - OVER 8
Oak TT OVER 4.5
Den - UNDER 48.5
FAU + 21

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Ben Burns

Opening Night Main Event
9* Denver Broncos

I'm playing on DENVER
I won with the Ravens when these teams faced each other in the playoffs last season. At the time, I felt that the Ravens weren't getting enough respect and that the Broncos were a bit over-valued. Considering that the Ravens, now defending SB champs, are again getting a lot of points, many likely feels that's the case again. I'm no longer among them.

The Ravens definitely peaked at the right time last season. However, they weren't necessarily the most talented or the best team. Now, in addition to having a bulls-eye on their back, they've also suffered some key personnel losses.

True, the Broncos will be without OLB Von Miller, which is indeed significant. This is still a very talented defense though - one which is superior to the Ravens' defense, at least in my opinion.

The Broncos obviously have payback on their minds. After all, they were a play away from beating these Ravens - and may well have gone on to win the SB if they'd been able to make that play. I believe the entire team is chomping at the bit to have their revenge.

Last year, due to the fact that he was returning from injury and adjusting to a new team, Manning was a bit of an unknown quantity. While he is a year older now, that's no longer the case. He's a year removed from his injury and is also entirely familiar with his team.

Manning had big numbers in the playoff loss but also threw two interceptions. As if he wasn't dangerous enough, he now also has Wes Welker to throw to. I expect him to be fully ready to go and for the Broncos to pull away for a double-digit win.
9* main event

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Chris Jordan

300 over 24 first half den/bal

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Marco d'angelo

3* Cincinnati mlb

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Bankroll Sports

Free Pick
2* Boston Red Sox -110

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Ultra Sports MLB

Cincinnati -142 list Cingrani vs Lynn

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Seabass Report for Thursday:
100 OVER East Carolina
50 OVER Arizona
50 UNDER Red Sox
50 OVER St. Louis

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The Winners Circle

Thursday Football Plays

10* Play Denver -7.5 over Baltimore (TOP NFL PLAY) 8:30 PM EST

Denver has won 48 of the last 76 games when playing in the month of September and they have also won 29 of the last 41 games when playing in the 1^st two weeks of the season. Denver has won 45 of the last 56 games when playing as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and they have won 33 of the last 48 games vs. AFC North Division Opponents.