9-14-13

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ANDRE GOMES

English Premier League

Arsenal @ Sunderland (Saturday 3:00PM BST / 10:00AM EST)
Sunderland's coach Paolo Di Canio continues having the same bad temper that he used to showcase as a player. On the team's last game at Crystal Palace and after watching forward Ji Dong-Won failing a great scoring chance, Di Canio made fun of him and replaced him at halftime. Then, after team's captain John O'Shea had a critical error that cost the team a penalty kick to Palace and got O'Shea sent off from the game, Di Canio said the following on the flash interview:

"Our leader didn't react in the way he should. That is terrible because it was a crucial game for us," said Di Canio. "The penalty didn't come from a dangerous situation. It's absolutely poor and not acceptable. It was difficult to see this goal at this level. John O'Shea did something really wrong but he is an experienced footballer. It is not just with John O'Shea, but with a few players and there is not the right desire," added the Italian. "I cannot change the heart of my players."

This isn't the best way to manage a team and the truth is that Sunderland has just one point after three games, even though they had a quite accessible schedule, where they faced Fulham, Southampton and Crystal Palace.

On the other side, Arsenal bounced back quite well after losing against Aston Villa on their league debut. They defeated Fenerbahçe twice on Champions League qualifying, while they also easily defeated Fulham on the road and defeated Tottenham at home by 1-0, in a game where they had a better offensive flow than Tottenham, while their defense was also able to do a serviceable job. On trade deadline, Arsenal managed to sign Mesut Ozil from Real Madrid with a club record fee of 42M pounds. Ozil will help Arsenal in being an even better offensive team and certainly few teams in this league can match Arsenal's offensive flow and creativity in the front.

The problem is that Arsenal continues being far from being a top class defensive unit and Arsene Wenger didn't spend anything on trying to improve his team on this area. Depth might also become a short-term problem for them, as they are currently facing a number of injury concerns with Tomas Rosicky, Abou Diaby, Thomas Vermaelen, Mikel Arteta, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Lukas Podolski and Yaya Sanogo all sidelined. However, coach Wenger said that most of these injuries aren't worrying at all:

"We have lost Rosicky and everybody else should be available. I haven't decided but there is a possibility Özil could start."

For this game, I expect Arsenal to take control of the game, while Sunderland should struggle on defense without their suspended captain John O'Shea, while Wes Brown is also doubtful for this game. On their last two games, Sunderland allowed Southampton to have 67% ball possession and 17 total shots, while they allowed Crystal Palace to have 18 total shots on their last game. If Di Canio's team struggled so much against these two teams, things will only get much worse against a top offensive team like Arsenal. Therefore, I expect Arsenal to score some goals on this game, allowing them to pick up an easy win in here. I'm taking Arsenal on this contest.

NOTE: I expect Arsenal to be a public team on this contest, so this is why I'm already releasing this Saturday play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Arsenal (-0.75) @ -110

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bookiemonsters

saturday

pod eastern michigan game over 51

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Joe Wiz Saturday Football

Free Play Florida Atlantic +14 South Florida

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CHASE DIAMOND

9* CFB ROAST

East Carolina+7½/-105

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Alabama at Texas A&M: What bettors need to know

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+7.5, 60)

The two-time defending national champions take on the Heisman Trophy quarterback who nearly derailed their title defense a year ago when top-ranked Alabama travels to No. 6 Texas A&M for a Southeastern Conference showdown Saturday afternoon. Star quarterback Johnny Manziel and the Aggies put their nation-best eight-game winning streak on the line against Alabama's vaunted defense in one of the most-anticipated matchups of the season. Last year in Tuscaloosa, Ala., Manziel's Heisman campaign hit high gear when he orchestrated a 29-24 upset of the undefeated Crimson Tide.

Coach Nick Saban has had two weeks to prepare for Manziel and the Aggies' high-powered offense, as the Crimson Tide had a week off following a 35-10 win over Virginia Tech in the opener. Alabama hasn't lost a road or neutral-site game since Nov. 6, 2010, a span of 15 games - the longest active streak in the nation. It's the first trip to College Station, Texas, for the Crimson Tide since a 30-10 victory in 1988.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 90s with partly cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of rain. Winds blowing ENE at 6 mph.

LINE: Alabama opened as a 6-point favorite and was bet up as high as -9.5 before coming down to -7.5. Total opened at 56 and was bet up as high as 63 before coming down to 60 points.

ABOUT ALABAMA (1-0, 1-0 ATS): The Crimson Tide were dominant on defense and special teams against the Hokies but experienced the growing pains associated with an inexperienced offensive line. Three of Alabama's five touchdowns in the opener were produced by the defense and special teams, and Christion Jones accounted for three of the scores with a 74-yard punt return, a 93-yard kickoff return and a 39-yard touchdown catch. The non-traditional scores helped mask a lackluster offensive effort, as Alabama managed only 206 total yards.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (2-0, 1-1 ATS): Coach Kevin Sumlin's team continues to put up huge offensive numbers, averaging 58.5 points and 600 yards through two games, but the defense has been susceptible even against inferior opponents. After being suspended for the first half of the opener against Rice, Manziel came off the bench to throw three touchdown passes, and he rolled up 462 total yards and four scores (three passing) last week against Sam Houston State. The Aggies might need more eye-popping numbers from Manziel this week, as the defense has surrendered 29.5 points and 449.5 yards per contest.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
* Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 32-17 SU and ATS in revenge spots during his college career – including 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS when favored by more than seven points.
* Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is 0-6 ATS in his career against .666 or greater foes with revenge.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Since the start of the 2008 season, Alabama is 41-0 when it has fewer turnovers than its opponent and 51-0 when rushing for at least 140 yards.

2. Texas A&M is 1-4 all-time at home against top-ranked teams. Alabama is the first No. 1 team to visit College Station since the Aggies upset Oklahoma 30-26 in 2002.

3. The Aggies have surpassed 400 total yards in 14 consecutive games. Alabama has not allowed an opponent to reach 400 yards since Texas A&M did so last season.

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Where the action is: Books brace for Texas A&M money

Alabama isn’t the only group waiting to sink its teeth into Texas A&M this weekend.

College football bettors have been counting down the days to this SEC showdown ever since Johnny Manziel and the Aggies spoiled the Crimson Tide’s undefeated season with a 29-24 win in Bryant-Denny Stadium last November.

This spread was up as early as June when the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas opened Texas A&M as a 6-point home underdog. The LVH Superbook posted a similar line in July, tacking on a half-point hook.

With kickoff only days away, and a summer full of drama for “Johnny Football” in the past, sportsbooks are currently dealing Alabama as a 7.5-point road favorite. We talk to oddsmakers to see how the betting action has been so far, and where they expect the line to move before the 3:30 p.m. ET start.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: +6, Move: +9.5, Move: +7.5

This line jumped significantly before the season started with rumors that Manziel could be suspended for his role in an autograph scandal, in which he was allegedly paid for signing memorabilia during last year’s BCS Championship weekend.

The spread, which was pulled from the board at many books, went up as high as Alabama -9.5 before the NCAA served up a slap on the wrist and only suspended the reigning Heisman winner for the first half of Texas A&M’s opener versus Rice. Since then, nerves have calmed and money has moved this back down around a touchdown.

The Crimson Tide are still the more popular pick among bettors, with about 67 percent of the total handle on the defending national champs. Since moving down, most books have drawn pretty solid two-way money but know the majority of the action will come Friday and Saturday.

“It’s a bit back and forth on juice, but the number is steady,” says Aron Black of bet365.com. “So far we are just shy of 3-to-1 Alabama ATS money to Texas A&M. Bama will be a banker for the parlays and some heavy-hit singles, but I expect to see some dog money on Texas A&M straight up Saturday.”

The Aggies are currently +240 moneyline underdogs after opening as high as +270 with Alabama coming back as a -300 road favorite to win SU.

The total opened at 54.5 at the Golden Nugget in June and has since climbed as high as 63 points before being bet down over the past week. Action on the under has driven the number to 60.5, with Alabama’s defense expected to prevail over the Aggies' high-flying offense.

Last year’s game played under the 54.5-point total. Texas A&M has topped the number in its first two games of the season while Alabama pushed with the 45-point total in its opener against Virginia Tech.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Texas San Antonio at Arizona (Saturday 9/14 10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona -24.5 (-110) at BetOnline

The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners played Oklahoma State to a 21-point game on the road last week as a 33.5 point underdog. But, the Cowboys are not the team they were the last few years. The Wildcats have it going on both sides of the ball, and have won their first two games by a total of 80 points, and this one does not look to be much different. Arizona has a punishing running attack which has ground-out 730 yards in two games. And, UTSA simply does not have the team speed or depth to handle it. Oklahoma State put up 610 yards on them last week, and Arizona is going to put up similar numbers. The difference here is that the Wildcats have a stronger defense, so the distance between these teams is going to show up early and often - especially on the scoreboard. An offense in motion tends to stay in motion in college football, and Arizona has covered four straight after topping the 40-point mark. Play on Arizona in this one.

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Prosportshandicappers

(1unit) take UNDER 62 Alabama/ Texas A&M

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The Winners Circle

Saturday Football Plays

10* Play Texas A&M +8.5 over Alabama (TOP NCAA PLAY) 3:30 PM EST

Texas A&M has won 10 of the last 12 games coming off a win by 17 points or more in their last game and they have also won 13 of the last 16 games after scoring 37 points or more in their last game. Texas A&M has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games when playing as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and they are averaging 58 points a game on offense this season.


10* Play Florida Atlantic +10.5 over South Florida (TOP COLLEGE PLAY) 7:00 PM EST

South Florida has lost 7 of the last 10 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have also lost 7 of the last 8 games coming off a road loss in their last game. South Florida has lost 6 consecutive games after scoring 14 points or less and they have lost 18 of the last 26 overall games.


10* Play Oregon State +3 over Utah (TOP NCAA PLAY) 10:00 PM EST

Oregon State has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games when playing as a road underdog of three points or less and they have also covered the spread in 17 of the last 24 games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in their last game. Oregon State has won and covered the spread in 5 of the last 7 games when the line posted is between +3 to -3 and they are averaging 39 points a game on offense this season.


5* Play UCLA +4.5 over Nebraska (BONUS COLLEGE PLAY)
5* Play Oregon -27.5 over Tennessee (BONUS COLLEGE PLAY)

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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action

We give a quick look at all of Saturday's Top 25 afternoon betting action from Week 3 of the college football schedule:

Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats (+13.5, 59.5)

Teddy Bridgewater looks to build on his early-season productivity when No. 7 Louisville visits in-state rival Kentucky on Saturday. The junior quarterback passed for 752 yards and nine touchdowns in the Cardinals’ first two victories and completed 19-of-21 passes in Louisville’s win over Kentucky last season. The Wildcats are transitioning under first-year coach Mark Stoops and the offense rolled up 675 yards in last Saturday’s 41-7 rout of Miami (Ohio).

Kentucky had 413 passing yards and 262 on the ground against Miami in the second game under new offensive coordinator Neal Brown to rack up the third-most yards in program history. The Wildcats rotated sophomore quarterbacks Maxwell Smith and Jalen Whitlow in the first two games and now face a rugged Louisville defense that allowed just seven points in each of two victories. The explosive Cardinals rank fifth in passing offense (406.5), tied for 16th in scoring offense (46.5 points) and 18th in total offense (545.0).

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies over Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington.
LINE: Louisville opened as 11.5-point road faves and is as high -14 at some books. The total is 59.5.
TRENDS:

* The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* The over is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 road games.
* The Wildcats are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.

Akron Zips at Michigan Wolverines (-37, 56.5)

The last time Michigan secured a home victory against Notre Dame, it struggled initially against a downtrodden Mid-American Conference opponent before recovering en route to a 6-0 start. The 12th-ranked Wolverines look to avoid another early letdown Saturday when they host Akron. Michigan, which defeated the Fighting Irish 41-30 in its last home game between the two longtime rivals, followed up a dramatic victory against Notre Dame in 2011 with a sloppy 31-3 win over Eastern Michigan.

While Eastern Michigan went on to finish 6-6 that year for its only non-losing season since 1995, the Zips - who are coming off a 1-11 campaign - don’t appear to be a team capable of trading blows with the Wolverines. Akron, which is in its second season under former Auburn coach Terry Bowden, has dropped 27 consecutive road contests. The Zips have won only one game in each of the previous three seasons and are coming off a 35-33 home win over James Madison last Saturday.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies. There is a small five percent chance of rain in the forecast.
LINE: Michigan opened as 36.5-point home faves and is now -37. The total is 56.5.
TRENDS:

* The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the MAC.
* The Zips are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* The under is 8-1 in the Zips last nine games overall.

UCLA Bruins at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4.5, 70)

UCLA will be playing with heavy hearts this week following the death of walk-on wide receiver Nick Pasquale, who was hit by a car while walking in his hometown on Sunday. The 17th-ranked Bruins attempt to put that pain behind them when they visit No. 15 Nebraska on Saturday. UCLA had extra time to prepare after an opening destruction of Nevada on Aug. 31 and a bye week.

The Cornhuskers are searching for revenge against the Bruins, who rolled up 653 total yards in a 36-30 home win over Nebraska last season. That marked the second-most yards ever allowed by a Cornhuskers defense, and the loss threw an early wrench into their BCS bowl plans. UCLA used that triumph as a springboard to a strong campaign and hopes to turn the same trick in 2013.

WEATHER: Temperatures in Lincoln will be in the high-60s with a 24 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow from the south at 12 mph toward the north end zone.
LINE: Nebraska opened as a 4.5-point favorite. The total is 70.
TRENDS:

* The Bruins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.
* The over is 4-0 in the Bruins' last four road games.
* The Cornhuskers are 17-4-2 ATS in their last 23 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Tulsa Golden Hurricanes at Oklahoma Sooners (-24, 51)

Quarterback Blake Bell will make his first career start when No. 13 Oklahoma hosts in-state foe Tulsa on Saturday. Starter Trevor Knight suffered a bruised right knee late in the first half of the Sooners' 16-7 victory over West Virginia last week and left the game after three quarters in favor of Bell with Oklahoma ahead 13-7. Knight is expected to miss up to two weeks, but could miss only one game as the Sooners are off next week prior to their showdown at No. 21 Notre Dame on Sept. 28.

It may not matter who plays quarterback for Oklahoma as its defense has yielded seven points in two games - the fewest allowed by an FBS school that has faced two FBS teams. The Golden Hurricane, voted to win the Conference USA West Division in the preseason poll, were headed for an 0-2 start before rallying from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to defeat Colorado State 30-27 last week. Julius Caesar (Trey) Watts III, son of former Sooners star quarterback and U.S. Congressman J.C. Watts, is responsible for 251 of Tulsa's 700 yards and should attract the majority of Oklahoma's attention.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field from the east at 6 mph.
LINE: The Sooners opened as 24.5-point home faves at most books and are currently -24. The total opened at 49 and is up to 51.
TRENDS:

* The Golden Hurricane are 1-6 ATS in their last seven versus the Big 12.
* The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Stanford Cardinal at Army Black Knights (+28.5, 51)

Fourth-ranked Stanford looks to extend its winning streak to 10 games when it travels to Army on Saturday in the first meeting between the schools since 1979. The Cardinal picked up where they left off in 2012 by trouncing San Jose State last weekend 34-13. It gave coach David Shaw a 24-4 mark since taking over at Stanford, including wins in his first three season openers, making Shaw the first Cardinal coach to do that in almost 80 years.

It has been nearly 41 seasons since Army knocked off a ranked opponent and almost 51 years since the Black Knights hosted a team ranked in the top five nationally. Army enters on a sour note after suffering a 40-14 loss at Ball State last weekend. The Black Knights turned the ball over three times and gave up 325 passing yards.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies before clearing up later in the game. Wind will blow from the NW at 6 mph.
LINE: Army opened as 28.5-point home dogs. The total opened at 52 and has moved down to 51.
TRENDS:

* The Cardinal are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
* The Black Knights are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
* The under is 6-1 in Black Knights last seven games overall.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Florida State Seminoles (-33.5, 65.5)

One game into his much-anticipated college career and the bar has already been set impossibly high for Jameis Winston, who will look to build on a scintillating debut when No. 9 Florida State hosts Nevada on Saturday. Winston shattered the school's single-game completion percentage and posted an FBS-best passer rating of 252.2 as the Seminoles dismantled Pittsburgh on Sept. 2. Florida State has an extra week to prepare, but it is 1-2 coming off a bye the last three seasons.

Nevada, the alma mater of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, will be playing a ranked team on the road for the second time in three weeks after getting overwhelmed by UCLA 58-20 in the season opener. The Wolf Pack could be forced to play without dual-threat QB Cody Fajardo, who suffered a sprained right knee in last week's 36-7 victory over UC Davis. Fajardo is listed as day-to-day for Nevada, which went 5-1 on the road last season.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with a 41 percent chance of thunderstorms in Tallahassee.
LINE: The Seminoles opened as 32-point home faves and are currently -33.5. The total is 65.5.
TRENDS:

* The Wolf Pack are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win.
* The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
* The under is 12-2 in Seminoles last 14 non-conference games.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+7.5, 60)

The two-time defending national champions take on the Heisman Trophy quarterback who nearly derailed their title defense a year ago when top-ranked Alabama travels to No. 6 Texas A&M for a Southeastern Conference showdown Saturday afternoon. Star quarterback Johnny Manziel and the Aggies put their nation-best eight-game winning streak on the line against Alabama's vaunted defense in one of the most-anticipated matchups of the season. Last year in Tuscaloosa, Ala., Manziel's Heisman campaign hit high gear when he orchestrated a 29-24 upset of the undefeated Crimson Tide.

Coach Nick Saban has had two weeks to prepare for Manziel and the Aggies' high-powered offense, as the Crimson Tide had a week off following a 35-10 win over Virginia Tech in the opener. Alabama hasn't lost a road or neutral-site game since Nov. 6, 2010, a span of 15 games - the longest active streak in the nation. It's the first trip to College Station, Texas, for the Crimson Tide since a 30-10 victory in 1988.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-90s with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.
LINE: Most books opened with the Crimson Tide as 7.5-point road faves. The total opened at 62 and has come down to 60.
TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.
* The Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win.
* The over is 4-1 in the Aggies last five home games.

Tennessee Volunteers at Oregon Ducks (-27.5, 71)

It’s safe to say the transition from Chip Kelly to Mark Helfrich has been seamless as No. 2 Oregon hosts Tennessee on Saturday in the third game of the post-Kelly era. The high-flying offense hasn’t missed a beat by scoring an average of 62.5 points (third nationally) and ranking second in total offense (664.5) and second in rushing offense (425.0). Tennessee has allowed just 20 points in two games, ranks 29th in total defense (302.0) and has forced nine turnovers.

The Volunteers’ gaudy defensive statistics will be tested by the high-powered Ducks as the first two opponents – Austin Peay and Western Kentucky – lacked the weapons Oregon possesses. First-year Tennessee coach Butch Jones said his team needs to prevent the quick long-yardage scores the Ducks are known for and make them drive the field for points. Oregon is averaging a stellar 9.5 yards per play after opening the Helfrich era with routs over Nicholls State (66-3) and Virgina (59-10).

WEATHER: Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the high-70s at Autzen Stadium.
LINE: Oregon opened as a 27-point home fave and has been bet up to -27.5. Most books opened to total at 70 and it is currently 71.
TRENDS:

* The Volunteers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.
* The Ducks are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* The over is 26-8-1 in the Ducks last 35 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookieshunter

3* Maryland -5.5 GOM
3* Arizona St. -4
3* Mayweather wins by decision

2* Louisville -13.5
2* Colorado +9.5

1* Mississippi St. +6.5
1* UCLA +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob

3 Utah

2 Arkansas
2 Colorado

opinions

Texas tech
Under Arizona
North texas
Rutgers
Bowling green
Kentucky

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Betting Line Moves
Virginia Tech -7 -115 Released Monday
Texas -2.5
rice over 58.5
arizona Under 63.5
Purdue Under 49

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University of Colorado officials Friday called off the football game against Fresno State scheduled for noon Saturday at Folsom Field due to the effects of the flooding in Boulder, according to CU officials.

"Even though the weather is improving, Boulder is still designated as a national emergency site," Chancellor Philip P. DiStefano said in a statement. "Our community is hurting. Many of our students are displaced from their homes, including many of our student-athletes. This is not an appropriate time for us to hold a game that would put pressure on the community, both in terms of security/emergency personnel, but also in diverting attention from people in need."

DiStefano also said that "ensuring the safety of CU affiliates and fans has always been the No. 1 priority."

The Fresno State team had been scheduled to fly out Friday afternoon but that flight was delayed as school officials awaited word on whether the game would be played. No makeup date has been set.

CU head football coach Mike MacIntyre said his players are supportive of the decision.

From denver post

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JIMMY BOYD

4* Alabama -7.5