9-15-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

Totals POW - Dallas/Kansas City Under 46

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 2 betting cheat sheet: Early action

St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5, 47)

Sam Bradford benefited from former top overall pick Jake Long's presence and was not sacked in the Week 1 victory. Daryl Richardson, who replaced visiting RB Steven Jackson as the primary back in St. Louis, rushed for 63 yards on 20 carries in last week's win. Richardson likely will have company in the backfield on Sunday as Isaiah Pead returns from a one-game league suspension.

Matt Ryan could use some better protection after being sacked three times while being put under duress on 25-of-38 passing in the season opener. Ryan also has question marks at wide receiver as veteran Roddy White effectively serves as a decoy as he tries to work through a high ankle sprain. Pro Bowler Julio Jones has been limited in practice with a knee injury despite reeling in seven catches for 76 yards and a touchdown last week.

LINE: Opened Atlanta -7.5 and bet down to -6.5. Total steady at 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Rams (+2.5) + Falcons (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Falcons -9.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Atlanta.
* Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

Philip Rivers completed only 14-of-29 passes against the Texans, including a 1-for-7 performance with a pick-six in the decisive fourth quarter. Rivers did throw four touchdown passes, but to provide a comparison, the Chargers ran a total of 51 plays against the Texans – two fewer than Philadelphia ran in the first half alone. San Diego, which was ravaged by injuries to its receivers in the preseason, did not have a player catch more than three passes or go over 50 yards against Houston.

Under the direction of Chip Kelly’s high-flying offense, the Eagles ran 53 first-half plays against the Washington Redskins on Monday night and extended their lead to 33-7 in the opening two minutes of the third quarter. After his team ran 77 plays and finished with 443 yards against Washington, Kelly actually said of the Eagles’ offense, “I felt like it was too slow, to be honest with you.”

LINE: Eagles opened -7.5 and bet down to -7. Total moved from 53 to 55.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+2.5) - Eagles (+1.0) + home (-3.0) = Eagles -4.5
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s. Clear skies. Winds west 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following SU loss.
* Eagles are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Kansas City Chiefs first-year head coach Andy Reid will make his home debut Sunday against a team he knows all too well in the Dallas Cowboys. Reid was 17-12, including the playoffs, versus Dallas in his 14 years at the helm in Philadelphia. The Chiefs have lost their last two home openers by a combined score of 81-31.

Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo (bruised ribs) and wide receiver Dez Bryant (foot) are on target to play through their respective injuries. Dallas rode its defense to a 36-31 win over the New York Giants on Sunday in a game that saw the Cowboys force six turnovers, two of which they returned for touchdowns.

LINE: Chiefs opened as low as -1.5 and moved to -3. Total steady at 46.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-2.5) + Chiefs (0.0) + home (-3.0) = Chiefs -0.5
WEATHER: Temps in low 80s. 34 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds SSW 12 mph.
TRENDS:

* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 2.
* Under is 17-5 in Chiefs' last 22 home games.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 43.5)

he first order of business for Miami is to fix a running game that averaged less than a yard per carry and saw starter Lamar Miller held to three yards on 10 attempts. Wide receiver Mike Wallace, the high-priced offseason acquisition that was brought in to provide Tannehill with a deep threat, also made headlines following the game by grousing about his role in the passing attack (one catch, 15 yards).

Colts QB Andrew Luck, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 draft, was sacked four times by the upset-minded Oakland Raiders but ran for the winning touchdown with just under 5 1/2 minutes to play - the eighth time he has directed a comeback win in the fourth quarter or overtime. Defense was also a concern for the Colts, who allowed Oakland to possess the ball for nearly 33 minutes.

LINE: Colts opened -3.5 moved as low as -2.5. Total moved from 42.5 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+1.0) - Colts (+1.5) + home (-3.0) = Colts -2.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Indianapolis.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-9, 43)

The Titans' defense held the Steelers to 195 total yards and kept them off the scoreboard until Jerricho Cotchery caught a 4-yard touchdown pass with 1:23 remaining in the fourth quarter. Tennessee needed the strong defensive performance as its offense gained only 229 yards and produced just one touchdown and three field goals.

Controversy could be brewing in the Texans' backfield as Arian Foster was visibly upset after being waved off the field by backup Ben Tate during a fourth-quarter drive on Monday. Coach Gary Kubiak stated Foster, who missed the entire preseason with a calf injury, will be sharing the workload with Tate until he works his way back into form.

LINE: Houston opened -8.5 and moved as high as -10.5. Total moved from 42 to 43.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Titans (+3.5) + Texans (-4.5) + home (-3.0) = Texans -11
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Houston.
* Titans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston.

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-9.5, 49.5)

Washington's defense couldn't slow down the Eagles' frenetic offense, falling behind 33-7 before mounting a huge second-half rally in a 33-27 loss. Robert Griffin III looked like a player who missed virtually the entire preseason Monday night. The former Heisman winner was relegated to a pocket passer, perhaps by design, as Washington looked to protect his surgically repaired knee.

Aaron Rodgers was sharp in Green Bay's opener but aside from a couple flashes of speed out of the backfield from rookie Eddie Lacy (14 carries, 41 yards), the Packers were forced to resort to their one-dimensional air attack. Rodgers is nearly unbeatable at Lambeau Field, winning 19 of his last 20 starts there. Green Bay could be without tight end Jermichael Finley, who missed practice during the week due to a toe injury.

LINE: Packers opened -9 and moved to -7. Total moved from 49.5 to 50.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+1.0) + Packers (-6.0) + home (-3.0) = Packers -10
WEATHER: Temps low 60s. 60 percent chance of rain. Winds west 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Redskins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 44)

Defending Cleveland’s offense will be a bit easier as second-year quarterback Brandon Weeden is still trying to establish himself as a viable NFL signal caller. Weeden threw three interceptions and was sacked six times while completing 26-of-53 passes for 289 yards and one touchdown. The Ravens have defeated the Browns by an average of 12.9 points during the 10-game winning streak.

The Baltimore Ravens attempt to defeat Cleveland for the 11th consecutive time during John Harbaugh’s head coaching tenure when they host the Browns. Quarterback Joe Flacco put the ball in the air a career-high 62 times while passing for 362 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions against Denver. Getting Ray Rice untracked will be a priority as Baltimore’s top running back had just 71 total yards (36 rushing, 35 receiving) on 20 touches against Denver.

LINE: Ravens opened -7 and moved to -6.5. Total moved from 42 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Browns (+5.5) + Ravens (-1.5) + home (-3.0) = Ravens -10
WEATHER: Temps in low 70s. Clear skies. Winds south 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
* Browns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (+1, 44)

Carolina needs to get something going down the field - Newton was 16-for-23 for a career-low 125 yards against Seattle - to open things up for the running game. The pass defense struggled a week ago and needs to pressure Bills QB E.J. Manuel after sacking Russell Wilson only once in the opener.

Buffalo had limited success on offense in Week 1 but needs more from electric running back C.J. Spiller, who fumbled on his second carry and was limited to 41 yards on 17 rushes. The Bills were just 4-for-13 on third down, which led to a lopsided time of possession (37:43) in favor of the Patriots, and it showed as the defense wore down in the fourth quarter.

LINE: Bills moved from as high as +3 to +1. Total moved from 44.5 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (+1.5) - Bills (+5.5) + home (-3.0) = Bills +1
WEATHER: Temps in high 60s. Partly cloudy skies. Winds WSW 9 mph.
TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 2.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 42)

Minnesota regularly sees eight-man defensive fronts with Peterson in the backfield, but quarterback Christian Ponder has yet to prove that he can take advantage of the single coverage on the outside. Ponder threw three interceptions and lost a fumble in a 34-24 Week 1 loss at Detroit and is facing a Chicago defensive backfield that forced three turnovers last week and led the NFL in that category a year ago.

The most encouraging thing about Chicago’s 24-21 victory over the Bengals may have been the spot on Cutlers stat line that read: sacks-0. Cutler was sacked 148 times in the last four seasons but the Bears rebuilt the offensive line with four new faces for 2013. Trestman, who specializes in a short passing game, is also trying to get the ball out of Cutler’s hands quickly and to receivers like Brandon Marshall, who caught eight passes for 104 yards and a score against the Bengals.

LINE: Chicago opened -5 and moved as high as -6. Total moved from 40.5 to 42.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Vikings (+2.5) + Bears (-2.0) + home (-3.0) = Bears -7.5
WEATHER: Temps in mid 60s. 64 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds SSW 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Home team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago.
* Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 15 2013 4:05PM
215 DET / 216 ARI OVER 47.5 Bookmaker.com double-dime bet

Analysis:
Two big throwing offenses meet here with plenty of big-play personnel in the respective lineups. So, no, the oddsmaker has not made this total high enough.

The Lions are better offensively with Reggie Bush. He gives them an outside running threat AND a dangerous checkdown receiver out of the backfield.

The Cardi „nals' offense is much improved this season. Bruce Arians is an offensive guru and Carson Palmer has a big arm and a downfield mentality. His days of being an upper tier quarterback have been over for several years, but he's Arizona's best quarterback since Kurt Warner.

The Cardinals actually have two good receivers and one great one in Larry Fitzgerald. They are all made dangerous because of Carson and Arians' emphasis on passing. They will attack the Lions' biggest weakness, which is their secondary.

The oddsmaker hasn't quite fully adjusted to all the new rules skewed for offense. This used to be a big total to go over. Not anymore. Nowadays what should be over/unders of 48 and 49 should be put at 52 and 53 to accommodate what today's NFL has become especially when good quarterbacks are involved.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 15 2013 1:00PM
207 WAS / 208 GBP OVER 49.5 Hilton double-dime bet

Analysis:
Both defenses were overworked last week. The Redskins are traveling on a short week. Their defense ha „d to face the Eagles, the most up-tempo team in the NFL, and was on the field for nearly 33 minutes. Green Bay's defense was on the field for close to 39 minutes against San Francisco.

The Redskins are extremely vulnerable at the cornerback spots with declining veterans DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson. The Redskins ranked 30th in pass defense last season. They are vulnerable to the Packers' devastating passing attack.

Green Bay is averaging 34.4 points in their last five games and that's going against the 49ers defense twice and Vikings defense twice. The over has cashed 17 of the past 24 times (71%) in Green Bay's home games.

Robert Griffin III was rusty in the first half in his first action since off-season knee surgery. He started to get going in the second half and should be sharper in his second game of the game.

The Packers still can't find a pass rusher to complement Clay Matthews and could be without two key members of their secondary again, Morgan Burnett and Casey Hayward.

There is a chance of rain, but only a slight wind.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Side - Monday, Sep 16 2013 8:40PM
224 CIN -7.0(-110) Hilton vs 223 PIT triple-dime bet

Analysis:
Sometimes it can be a mistake to overreact to what happens on opening week.

But not in the case of the Steelers. Pittsburgh is in deep trouble.

The Steelers were the AFC's lowest scoring team during preseason when they went 0-4. Their troubles continued at home against Tennessee as their offense produced just seven points and 195 yards. This was against Tennessee, which gave up the most points per game last year of any team.

Pittsburgh has its younge „st offensive line in 56 years. The Steelers' one key offensive lineman, Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey, was lost for the season against the Titans. Pittsburgh's offensive line imploded without Pouncey. Cincinnati has one of the 10 best defenses and had a franchise-best 51 sacks last year.

Ben Roethlisberger has no ground game to turn to with a running back committee of rejects and his passing attack is minus deep threat Mike Wallace and reliable tight end Heath Miller.

The Steelers' defense still is good, but it's not dominant anymore. The linebacking corps took a hit with a season-ending injury to Larry Foote. Pittsburgh's defense is getting old and missing several former mainstays, including linebacker James Harrison, who is now with Cincinnati. The emotional Harrison will be super psyched going against his former team.

The Bengals have won seven of their last nine regular season games. Their only losses during this span were by one point to Dallas last year and by three points to Chicago on the road last week in a game they should have won.

Cincinnati's offense is improved with Andy Dalton more experienced and rookie running back Giovani Bernard and tight end Tyler Eifert joining A.J. Green, the best wideout in the AFC.

The Steelers have dominated Cincinnati through the years. Now the Bengals have a chance for payback on national TV catching the Steelers when they are physically down and their confidence is at low ebb.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3* (49er) SF +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 15 2013 1:00PM
210 KAN -2.5(-110) BetOnline vs 209 DAL double-dime bet

Analysis:
Andy Reid knows more about the Cowboys than the Cowboys know about Reid's Chiefs.

Kansas City has four Pro Bowl players on defense and an improved offense. The Chiefs won't commit the turnovers they did last year with Alex Smith behind center.

The Cowboys were celebrating like crazy after beating the Giants at home Sunday night. Dallas won by five points despite having a plus 5 turnover edge. That's not impressive.

The Cowboys have problems on both their offensive and defensive lines. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant aren't 100 percent either.

The Chiefs have one of the „ best home field edges in football. Dallas is playing outdoors on grass, which isn't a natural setting for them. The Cowboys also are 0-4-1 ATS the last five years when playing in Week 2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 2 betting cheat sheet: Late action

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)

Drew Brees passed for 357 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 1 and torched Tampa Bay for 307 yards and four scores in that Dec. 16 meeting last season. The biggest test for the Saints secondary this week will be against wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who is the best playmaker on Bucs' offense

Tampa Bay was called for five penalties that led to first downs against the Jets, including a personal foul call on linebacker Lavonte David that set up the winning field goal with two seconds left. Freeman completed less than 50 percent of his passes (15-for-31), threw an interception and fumbled the ball out of the back of the end zone for a safety in the contest.

LINE: Saints opened -3.5 and moved to -3. Total moved from 46.5 to 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-3.0) + Bucs (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bucs +4
WEATHER: Temps in low 90s. 30 percent chance of thundershowers. Winds east 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 meetings.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 48.5)

Detroit came out of Week 1 healthy but is likely another week away from getting receiver Ryan Broyles back from a knee injury. The Lions can survive without Broyles thanks to a bevy of offensive weapons including Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, who had 90 rushing yards and 101 receiving yards in his Detroit debut.

New starting quarterback Carson Palmer had a solid outing in Week 1, passing for 327 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw an interception and was sacked four times. The Cardinals might be without two major offensive weapons as receiver Larry Fitzgerald and running back Rashard Mendenhall both are questionable with hamstring injuries.

LINE: Game opened pick and moved to Detroit -1. Total moved from 46.5 to 48.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0.0) + Cardinals (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals +2
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Home team is 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 39)

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be without quarterback Blaine Gabbert when they visit the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The second-year quarterback suffered a nasty laceration on his throwing hand that required 15 stitches during a season-opening 28-2 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and veteran Chad Henne will start against the Raiders.

Oakland QB Terrelle Pryor was just the eighth quarterback since the 1970 merger to pass for at least 200 yards and run for 100 in the same game. Getting Darren McFadden untracked is crucial after the sixth-year back had only 48 yards – and a paltry 2.8 average – against the Colts. McFadden was limited to 53 yards (and a 2.8 average) by the Jaguars last season. Oakland recorded four sacks in the opener, a welcome development after having just 25 last season.

LINE: Oakland opened -7 and has moved to -5.5. Total moved from 39.5 to 39.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jaguars (+7.5) - Raiders (+7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Raiders -3.5
WEATHER: Temps in mid 70s with clear skies. Winds WSW 12 mph.
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Raiders' last four home games.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)

Denver QB Peyton Manning won the previous two matchups SU and ATS versus his brother Eli when he was a member of the Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos run game remains in flux but the defense had four sacks and two interceptions despite the absences of Pro Bowlers Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (foot).

New York has serious concerns about its running game after starter David Wilson lost two fumbles and was benched and backup Da'Rel Scott was injured, necessitating the signing of former Giants back Brandon Jacobs. New York's receiving corps showed it has the requisite firepower to keep up with the Broncos, getting three touchdown receptions from Victor Cruz. The Giants could be shorthanded in the defensive backfield after cornerback Prince Amukamara suffered a concussion versus Dallas.

LINE: Denver opened -2 and moved to -4.5. Total moved from 53.5 to 55.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-8.0) - Giants (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Giants +2.5
WEATHER: Temps in low 70s. Partly cloudy skies. Winds WSW 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 2.
* Under is 17-7 in Giants' last 24 games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44)

San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick was sensational in Week 1, throwing for a career-best 412 yards and three touchdowns against an overwhelmed Packers defense. The 49ers were the only NFC West team with a winning road record last season (5-3). San Francisco WR Anquan Boldin, who erupted for 208 receiving yards and a touchdown in his 49ers debut.

When it comes to home-field advantage, no team enjoyed a bigger one last season than the Seahawks. They finished 8-0 at CenturyLink in 2012 and were especially dominant in their final four home games of the campaign, outscoring opponents by a 148-33 margin over that stretch. The home effect was evident when San Francisco visited last season, as the noisy crowd forced Kaepernick to call two first-quarter timeouts.

LINE: Seattle opened -2.5 and moved to -3. Total moved from 44.5 to 44.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: 49ers (-8.0) - Seahawks (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -3
WEATHER: Temps in high 60s. 43 percent chance of showers. Winds SW 11 mph.
TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Seahawks are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Broncos at Giants: What bettors need to know

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4, 54.5)

Chapter III of the Manning Bowl takes center stage on Sunday when Eli Manning and the New York Giants host older brother Peyton and the Denver Broncos. That the game will be played at MetLife Stadium - the venue for this season's Super Bowl - only adds to the hype for the sibling rivalry that has seen Peyton win the previous two matchups when he was a member of the Indianapolis Colts. Denver is coming off a 49-27 dismantling of the reigning Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens.

The Broncos were already among the prohibitive favorites to come out of the AFC this season and did little to quell such lofty expectations behind Peyton Manning's record-tying seven-touchdown performance. The Giants, meanwhile, stumbled through a mistake-filled 36-31 loss at Dallas that featured six turnovers, including three interceptions by Eli Manning. Still, he passed for 450 yards and four TDs and had New York in position for the victory until he was picked off with under two minutes to play.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Giants opened as 5.5-point home dogs and the line has moved to +4. The total is currently 54.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with clear skies.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (1-0): Denver erased a three-point deficit with a spectacular second-half performance as Peyton Manning threw for five of his seven scoring passes and finished with 462 yards overall. Free-agent signee Wes Welker had nine catches for 67 yards and two TDs in his Broncos debut and athletic tight end Julius Thomas added another electrifying dimension to an already high-powered attack with five receptions for 110 yards and two scores. The run game remains in flux but the defense had four sacks and two interceptions despite the absences of Pro Bowlers Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (foot).

ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-1): New York has serious concerns about its running game after starter David Wilson lost two fumbles and was benched and backup Da'Rel Scott was injured, necessitating the signing of former Giants back Brandon Jacobs. New York's receiving corps showed it has the requisite firepower to keep up with the Broncos, getting three touchdown receptions from Victor Cruz and five catches and over 100 yards each from Cruz (118), Hakeem Nicks (114) and Rueben Randle (101) despite the slew of turnovers. The Giants could be shorthanded in the defensive backfield after cornerback Prince Amukamara suffered a concussion versus Dallas.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 2.
* Over is 8-3 in the Broncos last 11 road games.
* Under is 6-0 in the Giants last six versus a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Broncos are riding a 12-game regular-season winning streak, the longest in the NFL.

2. Eli Manning has thrown for 12 TDs and the Giants have averaged 44 points in winning their last three home games.

3. Welker has 20 catches in his last two regular-season games versus New York.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alouettes at Lions: What bettors need to know

Montreal Alouettes at BC Lions (-9, 52)

The last time the Montreal Alouettes played the BC Lions, quarterback Tanner Marsh thrust himself into the spotlight by engineering a massive comeback. On Sunday, Marsh and Montreal will visit the Lions for a rematch of that Week 9 miracle. Marsh faltered against the Toronto Argonauts last week and has already thrown eight interceptions in his first 89 pass attempts, but he won his first two games under center and has a knack for making big completions at key moments of a game.

It seems the Lions are only comfortable at home, as they are a perfect 5-0 at BC Place but 1-4 on the road. The biggest difference between BC’s play on the road and at home is its defense - the Lions allow an average of 21 points in British Columbia, but that number balloons to 32.2 outside the province. BC quarterback Travis Lulay suggested he's finally rounded into form by posting his first two 300-yard passing games of 2013 in a home-and-home set against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (4-6): Running back Brandon Whitaker was placed on the nine-game injured list on Monday, effectively shutting him down for the season. Without Whitaker, the Alouettes will use backup Jerome Messam and Marsh as a running tandem. Wide receiver Duron Carter has been a favorite target of Marsh for big plays over the last three games, totaling 210 yards on just eight receptions for a league-leading average of 26.3 yards per catch.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-4): Veteran quarterback Buck Pierce was acquired in a trade with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers after last week’s games. Pierce, who spent the first five seasons of his career with the Lions, will back up Lulay and provide depth and veteran guidance in the lineup. Offensive lineman Ben Archibald told CFL.ca he feels the line has underachieved in its duty to protect Lulay. Running back Andrew Harris is getting fewer carries in recent games, partially due to his increased role as an extra pass-rush blocker.

TRENDS:

* Alouettes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Alouettes are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in BC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. CB Cord Parks is tied for the league lead with three interceptions, while the Lions are even with the Saskatchewan Roughriders with 12. The Alouettes have 10 picks.

2. Montreal LB Chip Cox leads the league in tackles with 73.

3. The Lions have won their last 11 regular-season home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday English Breakfast: Southampton v West Ham

Just the lone game on the board Sunday as West Ham heads to the south of England to face Southampton at St. Mary's Stadium.

Southampton v West Ham (-120, +260, +400)

Why bet Southampton: Like a few other teams in the Premier League, the Saints made a splash in the transfer window and just need those new pieces to gel. Namely, striker Pablo Osvaldo who came over from Roma. Osvaldo got the start in Southampton's last game versus Norwich, but slotted in the hole behind striker Rickie Lambert. It's not a role that he's accustomed to as he was used as the primary striker with Roma last season. The problem is, Lambert has gotten off to a pretty decent start, so taking that spot in the Southampton setup could be daunting. Fellow newcomers center back Dejan Lovren and midfielder Victor Wanyama have adjusted nicely in manager Mauricio Pochettino's starting XI and make for the start of a very powerful spine. The Saints have put together a very intriguing side that could be a handful for most of the league.

Key players out/doubtful: Jos Hooiveld

Why bet West Ham: This game comes at a terrible time for the Hammers, who will be without Andy Carroll, Joe Cole and Stewart Downing in attack. They have struggled going forward since the season began and Sunday should be no different. Modibo Maiga looks to be the lone striker in the setup and with no Joe Cole, enter Ricardo Vaz Te to be a creative sparkplug on the wing. Vaz Te has shown some flashes in his career, but can never seem to find the consistency needed to hold a steady job in the Premier League. The defense, however, has been a bit better and more stable. Anchored by James Collins and Winston Reid at CB, West Ham has only conceded one goal, which was in their last effort at home to Stoke in a 1-0 defeat.

Key players out/doubtful: Andy Carroll, Alou Diarra, Stewart Downing, Joe Cole

2012-13 fixture result: Southampton 1, West Ham 1

Key betting note: West Ham has just one victory in its previous 15 away matches in the league (four draws, 10 losses).

Where the action is: "The odds on this one will probably go towards the Saints before kickoff, so grabbing the price on them is probably best if you are backing them."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Alabama (-8 1/2) on Saturday and likes the Panthers on Sunday.

The deficit is 1247 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Prop Shop: Week 2's Best Player Prop Bets
by Sean Murphy

The NFL Prop Shop opens its door for Week 2 of the season. Here are the best player prop picks for Sunday's action:

Most passing yards

Brandon Weeden (Cleveland Browns) vs. Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens)

We cashed a Joe Flacco passing yardage prop last week, electing to support the Over, and we'll go back to the well with the Ravens QB this week as he matches up against Brandon Weeden.

In last week's analysis I mentioned that I was higher on the Ravens offense than most entering the new season. While things didn't exactly go as planned in Denver, Flacco still bombed away for over 300 yards, and I expect a similar story to unfold this week.

With Josh Gordon sidelined due to suspension, the Browns remain thin at wide receiver. I don't expect them to let Weeden loose against an opportunistic Ravens defense, instead leaning heavily on RB Trent Richardson.

Take: Flacco

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) vs. Michael Vick (Philadelphia Eagles)

We might as well play this prop until the oddsmakers get caught up with their numbers. It's no secret that Chip Kelly wants his Eagles offense playing fast and that translates into more snaps for Michael Vick, and likely more passing yards as well.

Vick didn't seem to miss injured WR Jeremy Maclin in the least last Monday night and he should find continued success against a good, but not great Chargers secondary.

Philip Rivers turned some heads with a strong performance Monday night, but heading on the road on a short week is a different animal entirely. I'm expecting some regression from the Chargers offense here.

Take: Vick

Most rushing yards

Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans) vs. Arian Foster (Houston Texans)

Much has been made of the Texans’ decision to split carries between Arian Foster and Ben Tate. I'm not sure how long that gameplan will last, however.

Foster showed flashes of brilliance in San Diego Monday and let's face it, only flashes were expected from a guy seeing his first game action after missing the entire preseason. I do expect Foster to play a more prominent role in the Texans offense Sunday.

Chris Johnson is poised for a return to prominence here in 2013, but he faces a tough challenge in an angry Houston defense. I'm not a big fan of the Titans offense, and for good reason if you watched last week's game in Pittsburgh. Johnson will have a fine game, but won't outrush Foster.

Take: Foster

Most pass receptions

Jared Cook (St. Louis Rams) vs. Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta Falcons)

Give me the elder statesman in this matchup at the Georgia Dome.

Jared Cook was one of the breakout players of Week 1, coming up with a huge game against the Cardinals. However, he'll find the going a little tougher against the Falcons. We often see players turn in big performances in Week 1 only to regress considerably in Week 2. I see that happening to Cook.

Tony Gonzalez was fairly silent in New Orleans Sunday, outside of an early touchdown catch. Look for Matt Ryan to make a concerted effort to get the ball to his security blanket this week. The Falcons are at their best when Gonzalez is heavily involved and I expect that to be the case against the Rams.

Take: Gonzalez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

***NFL GAME OF THE YEAR***

7 Unit Take #220 New York Giants +4.5 over Denver (4:25pm est):
So many things to like about this play. First off we have a Denver team coming off a big Thursday night national TV opening night win. These type of teams are an almost instant bet against play the following week and especially so if that team plays well and wins easy. That was also a big game for Denver as the Broncos went out to avenge last year's playoff loss but don't be fooled by the final score in that game against Baltimore either, as the Broncos caught some big time breaks going into and coming out of the half. Those breaks really helped make a close game look worse than it actually was. Next up we have a Broncos defense missing their best player in Von Miller, a huge loss for them to overcome. Lastly there is tremendous gap between the AFC and NFC this season. The Broncos wouldn't be nearly the team many feel they are if they played in a different division and conference. This is a team that regularly beats up on bad football teams in an AFC that is littered with most of the worst teams in the NFL.

On the other end of things we have a desperate New York Giants team. Teams that start off the season 0-1 know just how important it is not to fall to 0-2 to begin the year. The Giants will definitely be playing this game with a sense of urgency here in this one. Their head coach Tom Coughlin said he was embarrassed by how sloppy the Giants played this past week. Coughlin was correct when it came to all the turnovers the Giants had in the game but outside of that there was little doubt they were the much better of the two teams at the line of scrimmage against Dallas in week one. Turnovers mean everything in the NFL and teams that lose the turnover battle by just one or more fail to cover the spread an amazing 77% of the time. The Giants were an almost unheard -5 in the game last week and despite that they still almost pulled off the point spread cover in the game.

This is a veteran Giants team with a top fan base. Both of them know how important it is not to start off the season 0-2 plus there will also be some added excitement in the air with Peyton Manning and a very good Denver team in town. This is a very tough spot for Denver as they are walking into a hornet's nest here. Also home underdogs off a week one loss are 21-10 in week two since 2005. Take the New York Giants and the points in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #201 Miami +3 over Indianapolis (1:00pm est):
I am just not a big fan of the Indianapolis Colts. Many bettors I know including myself felt that they caught their fair share of breaks last season and rode the emotions of their sick head coach also. We seen again in week one they are still a below average football team coming into this season as they struggled at home versus what is a bad Oakland Raiders team. The Colts were clearly the worst team in the NFL just two years ago and they still look to have a long ways to go too rebuild their team despite a decent record last season.

I was very impressed with what the Miami Dolphins did in week one as they went on the road and played a very strong game against a pumped up Cleveland Browns squad. Lost in a lot of the hype last season of all the good young quarterbacks was the play of Miami signal caller Ryan Tannehill who also had a very solid rookie season last year.

I think we have the better team here with the Dolphins and getting points is a nice added bonus. Take Miami plus the points in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #217 Jacksonville +5.5 over Oakland (4:25pm est)
It's a good idea here to plug your nose and make this bet. Always smart to back a team off an ugly performance in the NFL and no team looked worse last week than these Jacksonville Jaguars. Teams losing by 20 points or more in the NFL are excellent bets the following week as road underdogs (60% over a large sample size) and a team doing so in week one of the season (where things are magnified times ten) are even better bets.

Don't let one week fool you into thinking that this Raiders team is still not one of the two worst teams in the NFL along with Jacksonville in 2013. There is no way they should be laying this many points against any team in the NFL. They hung close last week against what is also a below average football in my eyes, the Indianapolis Colts. The Raiders are going with Terrelle Pryor as their quarterback here and though he played okay last week, this reason alone should tell you just how bad the Raiders are this season.

Take the points and Jacksonville here in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #214 Tampa Bay +3.5 over New Orleans (4:05pm est):
I love grabbing a week one loser at home as an underdog in week two if they face a week one winner and we have a prime example of that here in this between these two divisional rivals. The underdog in this type of spot has been a consistent money maker and is hitting at over 70% the last eight years overall.

Keep in mind both of these teams were just a play away from opposite results last week as the Saints managed to hold on in the last seconds to a win at home against Atlanta while the Bucs were beaten by field goal to end their game. You wonder what this point spread would be this week if New Orleans would have given up the touchdown and the Bucs would have hung on for the win. There is no doubt it would be a point or two lower than it is here right now so we are getting some nice line value in this contest.

Also Tampa Bay was on the road last week while the Saints were at home where they are always a much better football team than when they have to go outside and play like they do here in this contest. Plus we have the same thing we had in the Giants play here in this one, as home underdogs in week two off a week one loss are 21-10.

Play Tampa Bay and the points in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

5 Unit Play. #202 Take Indianapolis -2 ½ over Miami (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 15)
(Game of the Week)
So both teams won last week as the Colts beat the Raiders 21-17 at home (no cover) and the Dolphins (easy cover) won on the road against Cleveland. I understand that the Colts struggled against the Raiders but I don't see this Miami Dolphins team win back-to-back road games. I'm shocked to see this number drop and I thought for sure this number would be either 5 or 6 but I guess the oddsmakers believe the Dolphins win last week was worth 1-2 points. I'm taking the better QB at home and I see Andrew Luck outplaying Ryan Tannehill. The defense of the Colts did not play bad last week but if the Colts want a much easier win they must protect QB Luck as last week he was sacked 4 times. I see the Colts offense and the offensive line being much improved this week and I see the Colts covering this game and winning by double-digits. Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and again winning back-to-back road games in my eyes is highly unlikely. The Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and Lucas Oil Stadium has been very good to Andrew Luck.

3 Unit Play. #206 Take Atlanta -6 ½ over St. Louis (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 15)
The Falcons are coming off a tough road loss to division rival the Saints which they had every opportunity to steal that road game. The Rams travel to Atlanta after winning a home game against the Cardinals which they came from behind to beat Arizona. I really like Atlanta in this spot as I don't see the Falcons losing 2-straight to open this 2013-14 season. Getting the Falcons less then a touchdown at home seems like a steal as QB Matt Ryan is outstanding at home. Look at these stats that Matt Ryan has at home; he is 34-7 SU in the Georgia Dome and he is also 15-SU & 11-4 ATS in his last 15 home games. Give me Matt Ryan at home against the Rams any day of the week! The favorite in this series is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and the Falcons forget that tough road loss in Week #1.

3 Unit Play. #212 Take Chicago -6 over Minnesota (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 15)
The Bears squeaked out a home victory last week against the Bengals and this week the Bears defense get to face Christian Ponder. Ponder has struggled every game he has faced against the Bears defense. Jay Cutler performed well last week and the most shocking part of the Bears victory was that Jay Cutler di NOT get sacked. Wow! I can't believe I typed that. If the Bears offensive line protects Cutler again and the Bears defense bothers Ponder we should see another Chi-town victory and cover the point spread. Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games and the home team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings. Chicago is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the Bears defense will keep this trend alive.