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3-Unit Play Take #961 Colorado (+115) over Arizona (4:10 p.m., Sunday, September 15)
Jhoulys Chacin has put together a really nice season and I think he keeps it going today when he faces the Diamondbacks. Chacin is 4-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 11 starts against the D'backs and he is even more impressive when they play in Arizona owning a 2-1 record with a 1.78 ERA in 4 starts. Chacin has been steady on the road all year having an ERA that is a run and half lower than at home. Randall Delgado has never faced Colorado and hasn't won a game since August 2nd. He is 0-3 with a 5.31 ERA over those seven starts and I like Colorado to take the rubber match of this three game set. The Rockies are 5-1 in Chacin's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series and the Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 home games versus a right handed starter.
3 Unit Play Take #960 Milwaukee +117 over Cincinnati (2:10pm est):
Quality home underdog here in this one. The Milwaukee Brewers haven't played well this season but they have beaten the Reds in eight of their last eleven games overall coming into this one. They will go with Yovani Gallardo today and Gallardo has finally started to pitch better since his return from the disabled list in mid-August. Gallardo is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA over his last five starts and is holding opponents to a .198 batting average. He has an ERA below 2.00 in his last five starts versus Cincinnati coming into this contest. Even more impressive is the fact that the Reds Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto are 0 for 18 this season against the right-hander.
The Reds got a huge win Saturday but their offense has really struggled their past 11 games overall as they come in averaging just 3.3 runs per game during that time. Bronson Arroyo takes the hill here for them in this one and he's struggled away from home with a 4.37 ERA in his 11 road starts this season. Arroyo has posted an ERA of just 4.50 in August and September as well.
The Brewers offer nice value at home with the red hot Gallardo going for them. Take Milwaukee in this one.
2 Unit Play #980 Take St. Louis -1 ½ +115 over Seattle (2:15p.m., Sunday September 15)
Last night the Cardinals lost to the Mariners 4-1 and we know have a tie in the NL Central between the Cards and Pirates. Shelby Miller gets the start for the Cards this afternoon and he has pitched well in his last 2-games and the Cardinals have won both of those games he started. Look for St. Louis to rebound today at home and I see the Cardinals covering the run-line. Seattle is 2-5 in their last 7 road games and the Cardinals are 12-4 in their last 16 home games and an outstanding 49-23 following a SU loss.
4-Unit Play Take 'Under' 8.5 New York Yankees at Boston (8 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 15)
Clay Buchholz looked great coming back from injury. He pitched five scoreless innings at Tampa Bay on Tuesday. That was his first start since June 8. Buchholz has been dominant all season long and has just a 1.61 ERA on the season. The 'under' is 5-1 in his last six starts. The Yankees are going with Ivan Nova tonight and he has been one of their best pitchers as well. Nova has just a 3.17 ERA this year and he should be ready to bounce back after a rare bad start. The 'under' is 8-3 in the game after Nova gives up five or more runs in his career. This has been a high scoring series lately but I think that these pitchers will turn it around. The Yankees won't have Alfonso Soriano today and he had been carrying the offense. Look for a pitcher's duel and for this one to stay 'under'.
MLB
4-unit Play Take #975 Oakland A's (-110) over Texas Rangers (3:05pm EST) The Oakland A's are leaning heavily on the Texas Rangers and are ready to put the nails in the coffin on the American League West division crown in 2013. On paper this Oakland team doesn't appear to be anything special. But General Manager Billy Beane has done another masterful job putting together a complete team with players other teams didn't want. Call it Moneyball or just plain advanced scouting, but the A's have made shrewd personnel decisions to compete with the big boys with a limited payroll. Today they send a great example Jarrod Parker to the hill. Parker is 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 29 starts this season. Those are great numbers and especially impressive given how badly he started the year. After seven starts, he was 1-4 with a 7.34 ERA and was nearly demoted to the minor leagues. But since then he's been one of the best pitchers in the league and someone that the A's can count on in each and every start. In fact, he's given up more than three earned runs just once in 22 starts since that horrid beginning. The Rangers lineup isn't what it used to be when they had Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz. All of their offensive numbers are just average on a park-adjusted basis. Parker should be able to keep them at bay and put a stranglehold on the division with a victory in this one. Take Oakland here.
NFL: Atlanta -4.5, Carolina -3.5, Minnesota +6, Baltimore -6.5, Arizona +1.5, New Orleans -3, NY Giants +4, rams/falcons over 47, vikings/bears under 41, chargers/eagles under 53, browns/ravens under 44, lions/cardinals under 48, saints/bucs over 48
MLB: Rockies (+115)
WNBA: fever/sun over 138.5, mercury/sparks under 163.5, liberty/ mystics under 145.5, dream/silver stars under 152
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