10-12-13

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Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 7 of College Football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Saturday's college football action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The UConn Huskies will have a new coach patrolling the sidelines. T.J. Weist takes over as interim head coach following the dismissal of Paul Pasqualoni after a 41-12 loss to Buffalo. The Huskies are 4.5-point home faves against USF Saturday.

- The Missouri Tigers make their first trip to Athens, Georgia to face the Bulldogs. The two programs faced off last season at Missouri with Georgia prevailing 41-20. The Bulldogs are 7.5-point home faves.

- The Michigan State Spartans get a home game versus Big Ten rival Indiana, but the Spartans are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Michigan State is a 9.5-point home fave Saturday.

- The Red River Rivalry has been a shootout of late. The Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns are 4-1 O/U in their last five meetings and have combined to average 62.6 points per game in that stretch. Saturday's total is currently 57.5.

- The Virginia Tech Hokies boast the fifth-best defense in the country, allowing just 263.7 yards per game.

- The Pitt Panthers are at Virginia Tech to test that stingy defense. Pitt features the ACC's best WR tandem in Devin Street (111.3 ypg) and Tyler Boyd (106.3 ypg). The Hokies are 8.5-point home faves.

- Nebraska travels to face the Purdue Boilermakers and their porous defense. Purdue ranks 110th in the country allowing 36.6 points per game and is a 16.5-point home dog.

- The TCU Horned Frogs are 60-11 overall under head coach Gary Patterson at Amon G. Carter Stadium. TCU is favored by 24.5 at home versus Kansas Saturday.

- The Houston Cougars are one of three schools (Baylor, UCLA) with perfect 4-0 ATS records. Only Oregon at 5-0 ATS is better.

- Army is second last in the country with 429 passing yards on the season. Only New Mexico (380 yards) has fewer. The Black Knights are 7.5-point home faves against Eastern Michigan.

- Iowa State is one of four schools in the country (along with Ohio State, Oregon and Alabama) with a road win against a ranked opponent in each of the past three seasons. The Cyclones are 14-point dogs at No. 21 Texas Tech.

- The Arkansas Razorbacks have defeated South Carolina the previous three meetings at Razorback Stadium. They are also 3-0 ATS in those three home games. The Razorbacks are 5-point home dogs Saturday.

- The Duke Blue Devils are 3-0 ATS in their past three meetings with Navy. Duke is favored by a field goal at home Saturday.

- The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings between the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Ohio Bobcats. The Bobcats are 18.5-point home faves.

- Things haven't well for Western Michigan and its backers against fellow MAC opponents. The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games.

- Massachusetts! Miami (Ohio)! It's the two lowest scoring teams in the country! The Red Hawks rank second-last in the country averaging 8.8 ppg. The Minutemen are last with 7.0 ppg. Saturday's total is 44.5.

- Home team is 4-0 in the previous four meetings between Ball State and Kent State. Ball State is a 14.5-point home fave Saturday.

- LSU and Troy lead the over/under standings with 6-0 O/U records. Troy visits Georgia State Saturday with a total of 63.5.

- Baylor leads the nation in scoring averaging 70.5 ppg. The Bears are 17-point road faves at Kansas State and the total is 73.5.

- The Florida Gators have cashed in for backers when they play at LSU. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings in Baton Rouge. Florida is a 7-point dog Saturday.

- Maryland was throttled 63-0 by Florida State one week ago - matching its largest margin of defeat in 20 years. The Terps are favored by a TD at home with Virginia in town.

- Dating back to last season, Boston College is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games. The Eagles are 24-point road dogs at No. 4 Clemson Saturday.

- If anything, give Syracuse credit for holding onto the ball. The Orange are tied with 16 programs which have just one fumble lost this season.

- New Mexico ranks 100 in the country by allowing 35.6 points per game. The Lobos face a Wyoming programs which averages 37.6 ppg. Saturday's total is currently 69.5.

- The bye week isn't kind to San Jose State. The Spartans are 3-15-1 ATS in their previous 19 games following the week off. They are 3.5-point road dogs at Colorado State.

- The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between Wisconsin and Northwestern. The Badgers are 10-point home faves.

- Dating back to 2003, the Under is 5-1 in the previous six meetings between East Carolina and Tulane. Saturday's total is currently 53.

- The high-flying Oregon Ducks are 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Washington Huskies. Oregon is a 13-point fave at Washington Saturday afternoon.

- The Rice Owls seem to travel well. They are 4-0 ATS in the previous four road games and are 1.5-point road dogs at UTSA.

- The Over is 8-2 in Marshall's last 10 conference games. The Herd are at Florida Atlantic with a total of 56 Saturday.

- The Michigan Wolverines are one of the top consensus picks at 73 percent despite being just 2-5 ATS in their previous seven meetings with Penn State. The Wolverines are 2.5-point road faves.

- The top Covers consensus pick of the weekend? Well that would be Northern Illinois (78 percent), who is a 23.5-point home fave with Akron in town.

- Stanford QB Kevin Hogan is 10-0 in his career as a starter. He'll lead the Cardinal offense into Utah against the Utes as 7.5-point road faves.

- The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have rushed for 324 yards or more in four of their five games. They'll be tested against BYU and the No. 12-ranked rushing defense in the country, allowing just 132.6 ypg.

- The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall and are big 24.5-point home faves against Idaho Saturday.

- Middle Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with North Texas. The Blue Raiders are 6.5-point road dogs Saturday.

- The Kentucky Wildcats are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 SEC games. The Cats are 27-point home dogs against No. 1 Alabama.

- The Texas State Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. They are 6.5-point home faves against UL Monroe Saturday.

- Bowling Green hasn’t beaten an SEC school since defeating Kentucky in 1985. It will try to end that drought at Mississippi State as 9.5-point road dogs.

- The Under is 4-0 in Hawaii's last four road games. The Rainbow Warriors are at UNLV with a total of 55 Saturday.

- The Over is 8-1 in UTEP's last nine games overall. The Miners host Tulsa with a total of 64.

- Boise State is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Utah State. The Broncos are 6.5-point road faves.

- The Texas A&M run defense allows 214.8 ypg - 109th in the nation. In last season's matchup, Ole Miss RB Jeff Scott ran 21 times for 108 yards and a TD.

- The Colorado Buffaloes have lost 10-straight conference games. The Buffs are at Arizona State as 25.5-point road underdogs.

- The UCLA Bruins are last out of 123 FBS teams in penalties with an average of 10.75 per game.

- The road team is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Oregon State and Washington State. The Beavers are 2-point road underdogs.

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Florida at LSU: What bettors need to know

Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-7, 48)

Florida's dominant defense looks to slow down No. 11 LSU's high-powered offense when the 17th-ranked Gators travel to Baton Rouge for an SEC showdown Saturday. The Tigers bounced back from a crushing loss to Georgia to rout Mississippi State 59-26 last week, as their newfound explosive offense continued to produce. The Gators are still in the thick of the SEC East race thanks to a unit that ranks second in the nation in total defense (217 yards per game) and fourth in scoring defense (12.2 points per game).

Florida is coming off a 30-10 victory over Arkansas and has won three straight to open SEC play. The Tigers have won five straight and 27 of 28 at home, winning their three home games this year by an average of 28.3 points. The Gators have won only once in their last four trips to Baton Rouge but they spoiled the Tigers' title hopes with a 14-6 home win last year.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: LSU opened at -6.5 and moved as high as -8.5 in Las Vegas. Total opened 47.5 and has moved to 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 80s with partly cloudy skies and 11 percent chance of rain with winds blowing SSE at 5 mph.

ABOUT FLORIDA (4-1, 3-0 SEC East, 2-3 ATS): The Gators' offense has flourished since Tyler Murphy took over under center, as the junior's 209.4 quarterback rating against Arkansas was the highest for a Florida quarterback in an SEC game since Rex Grossman in 2001. The return of running back Matt Jones also has bolstered the offense with Jones (322 yards, 2 TDs) and Mack Brown (284 yards, 3 TDs) leading a strong ground game. Florida's strength still lies with its defense, which hasn't allowed more than 275 total yards this season and ranks second in the nation against the run, allowing 65 yards per game.

ABOUT LSU (5-1, 2-1 SEC West, 3-2-1 ATS): Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has revived the Tigers' offense, which has topped 400 total yards and 30 points in each game this season. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger has blossomed - leading the SEC in passer efficiency with a 190.1 rating while passing for 1,738 yards and 15 touchdowns with two interceptions - and receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry have combined for 77 receptions for 1,302 yards and 13 scores. LSU's defense has taken a step back from recent years, allowing 367 yards and 24.7 points per game.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Louisiana State.
* Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.
* Gators are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. LSU has won 35 of its last 36 games when scoring at least 30 points and is 63-5 under coach Les Miles when reaching that plateau.

2. Florida has held 12 consecutive SEC opponents under 20 points, and the Gators have forced a turnover in 16 straight contests.

3. Mettenberger is only the fifth LSU quarterback to throw for 300 yards in consecutive games and looks to match Rohan Davey's school record of three straight set in 2001.

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Texas A&M at Ole Miss: What bettors need to know

Texas A&M Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels (+6, 76)

After losing back-to-back games at Alabama and Auburn, Mississippi returns home to face a well-rested Texas A&M squad. The ninth-ranked Aggies have won all five meetings against the Rebels, including last season’s 30-27 comeback victory in Oxford. The game features the SEC’s top two passing attacks, but Ole Miss' recent struggles continued in a 30-22 loss to Auburn last week, when it was held to three field goals before scoring two second-half touchdowns.

The Rebels could return to form against a Texas A&M defense that ranks last in the SEC and lost starting defensive tackle Kirby Ennis to a season-ending knee injury in a 45-33 victory over Arkansas on Sept. 28. Ennis’ injury is a major blow to the Aggies’ run defense, which is allowing 214.8 yards per game - 109th in the country. Texas A&M’s beleaguered defense turned in an encouraging outing against Arkansas, but the unit figures to be tested by an Ole Miss offense that averaged 38 points in its first three wins.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Aggies opened -6.5 and are currently -6. The total opened 74.5 and is now 76.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 32 percent chance of thunderstorms.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (4-1, 1-1 SEC West): The Aggies have used a balanced offense to score at least 40 points in each of their first five games for the first time in school history. Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel leads the SEC in total offense with 361 yards per game, and sophomore Mike Evans ranks third in the country in receiving yards at 138 yards per game. Defensive back Deshazor Everett has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games and is second on the team with 31 tackles.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (3-2, 1-2): The Rebels begin a stretch of six straight home games against a Texas A&M team that is seeking its 10th straight road win. Junior quarterback Bo Wallace threw for a season-high 336 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions last week against Auburn, but the Rebels will need a more balanced attack in order to keep Manziel off the field. Ole Miss boasts the SEC’s No. 2 pass defense, but the Rebels’ defensive line has been hit by a wave of injuries in recent weeks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games.
* Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Rebels are 5-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 8-3 in Aggies last 11 games in October.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Texas A&M has scored first in 17 of 18 games under coach Kevin Sumlin.

2. Ole Miss RB Jeff Scott rushed 21 times for 108 yards and a score in last year’s loss to the Aggies.

3. Manziel has surpassed 300 yards in total offense in 15 of 18 career games.

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Tigers at Red Sox: What bettors need to know

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (-138, 7.5)

The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers have storied histories but will be facing each other for the first time in the postseason on Saturday when Game 1 of the American League Championship Series revs up at Fenway Park. Boston is looking to reach the World Series for the first time since 2007 while Detroit is seeking to return for the second consecutive year and third time in eight seasons. The Tigers won the season series 4-3.

The two teams were the highest-scoring squads in the majors – Boston recorded 853 runs, 57 more than Detroit – so the balance of potent bats and strong pitching arms will be intriguing. The health of Miguel Cabrera (groin) continues to be an issue but the Tigers' standout belted a two-run shot – his first homer since Sept. 18 – in the division series finale against Oakland and is 10-for-19 against Red Sox starter Jon Lester. Boston is certainly more rested after clinching its series against Tampa Bay on Tuesday while Detroit wrapped up its set versus Oakland on Thursday night and then traveled across the country.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s and wind will blow in from right field at 10 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (15-8, 2.57 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75)

Sanchez led the AL in ERA and allowed only nine regular-season homers but was shaky in his ALDS start against Oakland. He gave up six runs (five earned) and eight hits – including three homers – in 4 1/3 innings. Sanchez's lone career outing against Boston was for the Marlins in 2006 when he yielded seven runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings in his second career start.

Lester went 3-0 in five September starts and the strong finish carried over to a victory against Tampa Bay in which he allowed two runs and three hits in 7 2/3 innings. He went 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA versus the Tigers this season – including a victory on Sept. 3 in which he allowed one run and struck out nine in seven innings – to improve to 2-2 with a 4.63 ERA in seven career outings. Lester gave up just one homer over his last 10 regular-season starts before permitting two solo shots in the start against the Rays.

TRENDS:

* Over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.
* Tigers are 15-36 in the last 51 meetings in Boston.
* Tigers are 6-0 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Red Sox are 12-2 in Lesters last 14 home starts.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The final meeting of the regular-season series resulted in Boston posting a 20-4 victory over the Tigers on Sept. 4.

2. Detroit CF Austin Jackson had a miserable ALDS against Oakland, going 2-for-20 with 13 strikeouts.

3. Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury went 9-for-18 with seven runs scored and four stolen bases in the ALDS while playing through a foot injury.

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College football betting weather report: Saturday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your college football bets for Saturday's matchups:

South Florida Bulls at UCONN Huskies (-3.5, 41)

Wind will blow across the field at 10 mph.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+13.5, 57.5)
Site: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas

There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies (-8.5, 42.5)

There is a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers (+14.5, 57)

There is a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs (-24.5, 45)

Forecasts are calling for a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Memphis Tigers at Houston Cougars (-9.5, 52.5)

Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks (+5, 51)

Forecasts are calling for a 56 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Navy Midshipmen at Duke Blue Devils (-3, 57)

There is a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Buffalo Bulls at Western Michigan Broncos (+10.5, 51.5)

Forecasts are calling for a 45 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Virginia Cavaliers at Maryland Terrapins (-7, 43.5)

Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph and forecasts call for a 61 percent chance of rain.

Syracuse Orange at North Carolina State Wolfpack (-7, 54)

There is a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys (-14, 69.5)

Wind will blow toward the north end zone at 11 mph.

Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers (-10, 58)

Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph and there is a 30 percent chance of rain.

Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies (+13, 75)

The Forecast is calling for a 52 percent chance of rain.

Akron Zips at Northern Illinois Huskies (-23.5, 62)

Forecasts are calling for a 39 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

Idaho Vandals at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-24.5, 61)

There is a 39 percent of rain in the early stages of this game.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at North Texas Mean Green (-6.5, 53.5)

There is a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

UL Monroe Warhawks at Texas State Bobcats (-6.5, 45)

Forecasts are calling for a 50 percent chance of rain.

UAB Blazers at FIU Golden Panthers (+7.5, 55)

Wind will blow toward the west endzone at 10 mph.

Texas A&M Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels (+6, 76)

There is a 32 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi Big plays

Ucla
Colorado state
north Texas
ole miss
mizz
penn st
Kansas st

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Stephen Nover | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 3:30PM
176 Colorado St. -3.5 double-dime bet


Stephen Nover | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 3:30PM
148 Wyoming -15.5 double-dime bet

Stephen Nover | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 3:30PM
160 LSU -6.5 triple-dime bet

Stephen Nover | CFB Total - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 7:00PM
151 Georgia Tech / 152 BYU UNDER 54 double-dime bet


Free Pick
Mississippi State -10 1/2

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Dave Essler | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 12:20PM
172 Arkansas +6 triple-dime bet

Dave Essler | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 12:00PM
115 Pittsburgh +9.5 double-dime bet

Dave Essler | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 8:30PM
136 Mississippi +13.5 double-dime bet

Dave Essler | CFB Total - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 3:30PM
159 Florida / 160 LSU OVER 48 double-dime bet

Dave Essler | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 12:00PM
155 Missouri +8 double-dime bet

Dave Essler | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 3:30PM
159 Florida +7 LSU double-dime bet

Dave Essler | CFB MoneyLine - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 8:30PM
ML 135 Texas A&M -220 single-dime bet

Analysis: Kinda dumb for the ones that have Ole Miss in a teaser not to do this, really. Risking .2 to make 3.

Dave Essler | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2013 12:00PM
129 South Florida +10.5 double-dime bet

Analysis: I like both of these teams to win ATS, but a 6 point teaser just doesn't cost that much and it's getting us through key numbers. Super-low scoring game in Connecticut gives us tons of room there, and a home team w/two possessions and RLM in Utah.

Two team teaser:

South Florida +10.5 to Utah +14.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lee Sterling Mizz+7.5, Richard Chang LSUunder 48, Josh Nagel Boise.st-6.5

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Dwayne Bryant | CFB Side Sat, 10/12/13 - 8:00 PM
triple-dime bet 196 Utah St. 7.0 (-110) bodog vs 195 Boise St.
Analysis:

3 Units (MAX BET)

[196] UTAH STATE +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Budin

Philadelphia Crew 150 Dime Cheap Chalk Cover - Colorado State

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Today's MLB Picks

LA Dodgers at St. Louis

The Dodgers look to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss and build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games when the total is set at 6 1/2 or lower. LA is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.547; St. Louis (Wacha) 15.025 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 6 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-130); Over

Game 905-906: Detroit at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 16.873; Boston (Lester) 15.902 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120); Under

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Insider sports

5* Neb
3* ga over
3* tt

3* sox

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Point Train's CFB Best Bet Saturday, October 128-Unit-#111 Oklahoma (-13.5) over Texas– 11:00 AM CST

The last two quarterbacks to face the Sooners — Notre Dame’s Tommy Rees and TCU’s Trevone Boykin — completed only 50 percent of their passes and averaged just 135 yards per game. Texas’ starting QB David Ash is out with an injury so Case McCoy will again get the start under center. McCoy has completed nearly 61% of his passes this season with 2 TD and 0 INT. But the offense has been rather stagnant with McCoy at the helm. He’s averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt (compared to 8.7 YPA for David Ash) and the big-play potential severely decreases. Meanwhile, Texas’ defense has been horrendous. The Longhorns have surrendered 30+ points in three of the last four games and they rank 110thin yards allowed. Oklahoma hasn’t been as explosive on offense this season as they have in year’s past, but the Sooners are gaining steam behind QB Bell. Bell has 6 TD and 0 INT in three starts this season. He’ll have a big day against this porous Texas defense. OU has won and covered the last three meetings winning by an average margin of 29 PPG. OU had a +388 yard advantage and +17 first downs in last year’s game and QB Bell had four rushing touchdowns.

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Nelly's Football - Saturday Computer Slam - Oct. 122* #114 Michigan State -9 over Indiana 11:00 AM CT