10-19-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet Afternoon Action

Check out our NCAAF Top 25 cheat sheet for Saturday's evening action

TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7.5, 50.5)

TCU is coming off a sloppy performance against Kansas in which the team committed five turnovers in a 27-17 victory. In that game, Trevone Boykin rushed for a touchdown and threw for another – a 75-yard strike to David Porter – while the Frogs added 207 yards on the ground.

Well rested following its second bye in four weeks, Oklahoma State looks to push its home winning streak to seven games on Saturday against Texas Christian. The 17th-ranked Cowboys have not played since a 33-29 win over Kansas State on Oct. 5 – a game in which Oklahoma State rallied late in the fourth quarter.

LINE: The Cowboys opened as 7-point faves and are now -7.5. The total is currently 50.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 8 mph.

TRENDS:
* Horned Frogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a bye week.
* Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Over is 14-3 in Horned Frogs last 17 games following a bye week.

Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores (+7, 62)

No. 16 Georgia will look to bounce back from a tough loss and stay in the hunt to reach the SEC Championship Game when it travels to Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-25 loss to Missouri that dropped them a game behind the Tigers in the SEC East, but know they still have a shot to reach their third consecutive conference title game if they win out.

Vanderbilt is coming out of its bye week after being outscored 125-88 in its three SEC games. Things likely won't get any better with Georgia in town, as the Bulldogs have won 10 in a row at Vanderbilt Stadium and 17 of the last 18 meetings overall in the series.

LINE: Georgia opened as a 9-point road fave and is now -7. The total opened 61 and is up to 62.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:
* Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Commodores are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games.
* Over is 8-0 in Bulldogs last eight games overall.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers (+5.5, 57)

Tech QB Baker Mayfield, who has 1,488 passing yards and eight touchdowns in five starts, missed the Iowa State game after injuring his knee against Kansas. Davis Webb (965 yards, nine TDs) has appeared in five contests and sophomore Michael Brewer is healthy after missing a month with a back injury.

WVU QB Paul Millard replaced Clint Trickett during a 73-42 loss to Baylor on Oct. 5, when the Mountaineers allowed eight rushing touchdowns and a conference-record 864 total yards. Head coach Dana Holgorsen hopes his familiarity with Kliff Kingsbury and the Texas Tech offense will help the Mountaineer defense - ranked ninth in the Big 12 in points and yards allowed - this week.

LINE: WVU opened as an 8-point home dog and is now +5.5. The total is currently 57.

WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of rain in the forecast for Morgantown.

TRENDS:
* Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 8-1 in Mountaineers last nine games overall.
* Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers (+7, 54.5)

The Gamecocks dominated the Arkansas Razorbacks in every facet of the game, including time of possession (43:25-16:35) and first downs (32-7) in a 52-7 rout last week. South Carolina’s offense is averaging 486.5 yards, good for 23rd in FBS and easily on pace to break the school record of 428.8 set in 1995.

Rajion Neal has been the focal point of the Volunteers’ offense over the last two games, running for 169 yards and a score in a Sept. 28 win over South Alabama before adding 148 and two touchdowns against Georgia.

LINE: The Gamecocks opened 7-point road faves. The total opened at 54.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.

TRENDS:
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 8-0 in Gamecocks last eight conference games.

Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers (+3, 44)

Gators Running back Matt Jones is the latest to go down after suffering a season-ending knee injury against LSU and will take his place on the sideline next to quarterback Jeff Driskel, who went down for the season on Sept. 21. Tyler Murphy took over for Driskel and was solid in his first two starts before struggling to 15-for-27 for 115 yards last week.

Missouri shocked the Georgia Bulldogs last week defensively, forcing four turnovers, and needs one more interception to double its total from last season (seven). QB Maty Mauk - who will start after James Franklin picked up an injury last week - was an All-American in high school and also starred in track and field, which should allow the Tigers to keep the running packages that made Franklin dangerous in place.

LINE: The Gators opened as 3-point road faves. The total opened at 44.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 33 percent chance of rain.

TRENDS:
* Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. loss.
* Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 7-2 in Tigers last nine games overall.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Central Michigan Chippewas (+15, 59)

Northern Illinois goes after its 20th consecutive Mid-American Conference victory against the last program to hand it a league defeat when the No. 23 Huskies visit Central Michigan on Saturday. Huskies star quarterback Jordan Lynch became the 10th player in FBS history to run for more than 3,000 yards and pass for more than 4,000 in his career in last Saturday’s victory over Akron.

The Chippewas hope for the return of star receiver Titus Davis (shoulder), who missed the last game and has recorded 29 catches for 518 yards this season while ranking third in school history with 20 receiving touchdowns. Redshirt freshman quarterback Cooper Rush (nine touchdowns, nine interceptions) is becoming more comfortable with the offense and running back Saylor Lavallii is coming off a career-best 184-yard rushing performance in a win over Ohio University.

LINE: The Chippewas opened as 17-point home dogs and are now +15. The total opened at 59.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 77 percent possibility of showers.

TRENDS:
* Huskies are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Central Michigan.
* Huskies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Central Michigan.

UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-6, 53.5)

Unbeaten UCLA, ranked 10th nationally, has a chance to get itself into the national championship picture over the next two Saturdays but the visiting Bruins first must defeat No. 13 Stanford on Saturday. Sophomore quarterback Brett Hundley is thriving with 1,469 yards and 12 touchdowns and his 410-yard effort in last week’s victory over California was the third-highest output in school history behind Cade McNown (513 in 1998) and Drew Olson (510 in 2005).

Stanford defeated UCLA twice last season in a seven-day span – winning 35-17 at the Rose Bowl in the regular season before posting a 27-24 home win in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The loss to Utah last week marked the initial defeat in 11 career starts for quarterback Kevin Hogan, who has passed for 1,178 yards and 12 touchdowns this season.

LINE: Stanford opened -6.5 and is now -6. The total is 53.5, down from the opening number 54.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with clear skies.

TRENDS:
* Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 9-2 in Stanford's last 11 games following a S.U. loss.

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines (-8.5, 69)

The Hoosiers lost 42-28 to Michigan State last weekend, but the offense played well in defeat. The 28 points were the most scored against the Spartans in the last two seasons and Indiana’s 351 yards of total offense were much higher than the 203.8 yards Michigan State was allowing entering the game.

In the loss to Penn State, Michigan welcomed back linebacker Jake Ryan, who had been out since March with a torn ACL, but the Wolverines lost All-American tackle Taylor Lewan to a hip injury. Lewan is expected to play against Indiana, and that should benefit Michigan’s running backs, who combined for 27 yards on 27 carries against Penn State.

LINE: Michigan opened as a 10.5-point fave and is now -8.5. The total opened at 67 and is up to 69.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 54 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 10 mph.

TRENDS:
* Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Wolverines last seven home games.
* Over is 19-7 in Hoosiers last 26 road games.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Ohio State Buckeyes (-17.5, 55.5)

The Hawkeyes used their bye week to get healthy after a punishing 26-14 loss to the Spartans and expect to have both running back Mark Weisman and wide receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley ready to go after the two went down in the loss.

The Buckeyes are winners of 18 straight games since Urban Meyer took over, four shy of the school record, and do not have another currently ranked team on their remaining schedule. Ohio State is winning with offense in 2013 and can change the pace by inserting Kenny Guiton at quarterback if necessary.

LINE: The Buckeyes opened as 17-point faves are are now -17.5. The total opened at 55.5.

WEATHER: There is a 63 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Ohio State.
* Buckeyes are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games following a S.U. win.

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks (+23, 49)

The Sooners defense was exposed in a 36-20 loss to rival Texas, struggling to stop the run and allowing 13-of-20 third-down conversions. Defensive tackle Jordan Phillips (back) is the second starter, along with linebacker Corey Nelson (pectoral), to have season-ending surgery this week.

Jayhawks coach Charlie Weis announced Tuesday he will change how the offensive coaching staff operates, hoping to spark an offense that's averaging 15.8 points in its last 11 conference games. Weis will oversee the offense and help coach skill positions but will get more input from quarterbacks coach Ron Powlus (passing game) and tight ends coach Jeff Blasko (running game) as he develops a game plan.

LINE: The Sooners opened as 24-point road faves and are now -23. The total opened at 49.

WEATHER: Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-60s.

TRENDS:
* Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 8-3 in Jayhawks last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-13.5, 73)

The Tigers' return to relevance in the SEC West has hinged on a powerful run game that ranks seventh in the nation at 287 yards per game and totaled 511 yards on the ground last week. That outburst came without dual-threat quarterback Nick Marshall, who is expected to return from a knee injury and start Saturday.

QB Johnny Manziel and the Aggies continue to light up the scoreboard in Sumlin's up-tempo system, ranking third in the nation in total offense and fourth in scoring (47.8). The Aggies have scored 40 or more points in nine straight games - the longest active streak in the FBS - and they've topped 400 total yards in 18 straight contests.

LINE: The Aggies opened -12.5 and are now -13.5. The total opened at 72 and is up to 73.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 11 mph.

TRENDS:
* Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
* Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in October.
* Over is 5-1 in Aggies last six games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet Evening Action

Check out our NCAAF Top 25 cheat sheet for Saturday's afternoon action.

Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 67)

Huskies RB Bishop Sankey (899 rushing yards, 10 total touchdowns) has rushed for 100 or more yards in nine of his last 11 games after scampering for 167 yards and two scores against Oregon. Senior quarterback Keith Price has passed for 1,576 yards and 12 touchdowns and needs 110 yards to pass Jake Locker (7,639 from 2007-10) for second place on the school’s all-time passing yardage list.

The Sun Devils defense has experienced numerous struggles while allowing 27.2 points per game and senior defensive tackle Will Sutton has just 2.5 tackles for loss and one sack this season after having 23.5 tackles for loss and 13 sacks in his monstrous 2012 campaign.

LINE: The Sun Devils opened as -3 faves. The total opened at 65.5 and has gone up to 67.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with clear skies.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Arizona State.
* Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+10, 60)

The Tigers had eight defensive players selected in the 2013 NFL draft, but the young unit hasn't yielded a touchdown in six quarters. As the defense continues to gel, the Tigers - led by quarterback Zach Mettenberger (66.7 percent completion rate, 15 touchdowns, two interceptions) - are 15th in the nation in scoring at 41.4 points under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron.

The Rebels will be without several key players including linebacker Serderius Bryant (concussion) and his team-leading 55 tackles, and freshman Robert Nkemdiche (hamstring), who has started every game either at defensive end or defensive tackle. Running back Jeff Scott, a 5-7, 167-pound senior who leads the team with 434 yards, is questionable after leaving the Texas A&M game with a thigh bruise.

LINE: LSU opened -8 and is now -10. The total opened at 60.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Mississippi.
* Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Road team is 14-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears (-34, 76.5)

The Cyclones might be one of the best 1-4 teams in the country, but face an uphill battle against the high-powered Bears, who have won their first four home games by a combined score of 282-65. Cyclones Junior wide receiver Jarvis West, who caught three touchdown passes in last year’s win over the Bears, had 177 all-purpose yards against Texas Tech last week, including a 95-yard kickoff return for a score.

Baylor looks for its first 6-0 start since 1980. Quarterback Bryce Petty is the national leader in passing efficiency, while running back Lache Seastrunk leads the Big 12 in rushing with 648 yards and eight touchdowns. The Bears haven’t been held to less than 30 points since losing 35-21 to Iowa State last season in Ames.

LINE: Baylor opened as a 31.5-point home fave and is now -34. The total opened at 75.5 and is now 76.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Cyclones are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in Baylor.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide (-28, 48.5)

Arkansas dropped its fourth straight, tying for the longest losing streak of new coach Bret Bielema’s career, with last week’s 52-7 home loss to South Carolina. The Razorbacks are 0-3 in the SEC for the first time since 2007 as they prepare for their fourth consecutive ranked opponent. Making matters worse, they just lost senior defensive tackle Robert Thomas (31 tackles, 3.5 sacks) for the season to a broken leg.

Alabama last week won its 10th straight dating to last season, trampling Kentucky 48-7, and the defense is again playing at a championship level. The unit went 14 quarters without allowing a touchdown until the Wildcats scored and Alabama ranks second nationally in points allowed (11.3) and seventh in rushing defense (87.2 yards per game).

LINE: The Tide opened as 27.5-point home faves and are now -28. The total opened at 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with clear skies.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Alabama.
* Over is 9-1-1 in Razorbacks last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (+3, 64)

Seminoles QB Jameis Winston has been immune to typical freshman mistakes as he ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency and has thrown only two interceptions, helping the Seminoles lead the nation with just three giveaways. Florida State ranks fourth in the country in total offense (549 yards per game) and has racked up 400 or more total yards in 14 of its last 19 contests.

The Tigers' defense has been a surprising strength, though, holding five straight opponents to 14 points or fewer and limiting Boston College star Andre Williams to 70 yards on 24 carries in a 24-14 victory last week.

LINE: The Seminoles opened as 2.5-point road faves and are now -3. The total opened at 64.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 21 percent chance of rain.

TRENDS:
* Seminoles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight meetings in Clemson.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 conference games.

UNLV Rebels at Fresno State Bulldogs (-24.5, 74)

The Rebels deserve credit for turning their season around after opening with losses to Minnesota and Arizona, but their opponents during their win streak have a combined record of 8-18. In order to post their most impressive victory since beating Arizona State in 2008, the Rebels need a series of big plays from the trio of quarterback Caleb Herring, running back Tim Cornett and wide receiver Devante Davis, who is ranked second in the conference in receiving yards at 102.3 per game.

After struggling to establish their running game early on, the Bulldogs have featured a more balanced attack over the past two games, with Marteze Waller rushing for 157 yards and two touchdowns in a 61-14 win over Idaho on Oct. 5.

LINE: The Bulldogs opened as 21-point faves and are now -24.5. The total opened at 72 and is currently 74.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies.

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs last four conference games.
* Rebels are 10-39-4 ATS in their last 53 road games.
* Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.

Washington State at Oregon Ducks (-38.5, 73)

In the 52-24 loss to Oregon State last week, the Cougars led 24-17 in the third quarter before the Beavers responded with 35 unanswered points. The Cougars will need QB Connor Halliday and top receiver Gabe Marks (46 receptions, 512 yards, four touchdowns) to step up their games as Washington State has the nation's worst rushing attack at 66.4 yards per game.

It would be natural for the Ducks to look ahead with games against No. 10 UCLA and No. 13 Stanford in the next two weeks, but their overpowering offense and opportunistic defense can trump any mental lapses that may occur. While much of the attention is devoted to Marcus Mariota and his unit (56.8 points per game, second in the nation), the defense is also second with a turnover margin of plus-11 and has allowed nine touchdowns - tied for fourth-fewest in the country.

LINE: The Ducks opened as 38.5-point faves. The total opened at 73.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with clear skies.

TRENDS:
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Ducks are 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE GAVAZZI

CFB
Maryland (6-) at Wake Forest 3:30 ET ESPNU
4* Maryland
Positive situational spot for Wake Forest. At 3-3 SU, they enter today as a 500 or better home dog, off a win, with a week of rest (HC Grobe 8-1 ATS) and with revenge for a 19-14 loss to Maryland last year. It is a great spot for a team that is often been an over achiever under HC Grobe. The question is, which Maryland team will they face today? Will it be the one who began the year 4-0 SU ATS, scoring 32 or more points each game, or the Terps who showed up the last 2 weeks being dismantled 63-0 by Florida St. then winning 27-26 on a final play field goal vs. Virginia? I see the difference in their performance being linked in no small part to the availability of QB Brown who left in the 1st half of the Florida St. game. With Brown at the controls, he was the notable difference between the Terps hot start and their 4-8 SU season of last (when many others were injured as well). Brown is probable to make today’s start. With the positive momentum emanating from last week’s comeback victory, my opinion is that the Terp team who takes the field today will be more reminiscent of the one who began the year 4-0 SU ATS.

Navy at Toledo (-8) Noon ET ESPN
4* Toledo
Never easy to fade the Middies in their preferred role. Under HC Niumatalolo, they are 14-8 ATS as road dog continuing their long-standing tradition. Even with QB Reynolds at the controls, this offense is not as productive as years gone by, averaging only 27 points and under 300 RYPG. Twice in the last 3 weeks, at W. Kentucky (QB Reynolds injured in 1st half) and at Duke last week, Navy scored just 7 points. Facing a decent Toledo defensive front that allows just 143/3.7 (includes games vs. Florida, Missouri and Ball St.), the Middies may have a tough time crossing the goal line again. Led by veteran QB Owens and RB Fluellen, the Rockets have far more offensive balance averaging over 200 yards both running and passing. Let’s try the home team with the better balanced offense and a defense that is capable of slowing what the visitor does best.

Washington at Arizona St. (-3) 6:00 ET
4* Arizona St.
Each of these teams enters at 4-2 SU for the season. While AZ State is 2-1 SU in league play (beating USC and Colorado on this field), Washington is 1-2 SU with losses coming each of the last two weeks vs. Oregon and Stanford. Though the Huskies are the better team, the question is whether they can bring the same type of physical, emotional, and mental edge for a 3rd consecutive week. That is a big IF considering the grinder they have been through. Under HC Sark, the Huskies are just 8-11 ATS as road dog. They now must visit a rival who has won and covered the last 7 meetings against them. Since 2nd year HC Graham arrived in Tempe, Arizona St. has gone 11-2 ATS as favorite including 8-1 ATS as home chalk. Graham is a master at exploiting any weakness that an opponent exemplifies. No surprise to see him compress the windpipe of the visiting Husky should they show the slightest vulnerability. There are (8) 10* winners on this App or our site at Winning Sports Advice for Coll FB Week 8 now on a 25-12 run (68%)… Hit BUY ALL and all 8 are yours for just $79. This week they include his AAC GOY, ACC GOY, October Game of the Month and the Hidden Gem. The best value in this Industry, hard work, experience and expertise get it done every time. They begin Friday, don’t miss any!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J Clifton

CFB

Arizona St.
Wyoming

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

College Football Plays

4-Unit Play. #343 Take Indiana (+8) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 18)
After a tough, four-overtime thrilling loss to Penn State, it's letdown city for the Wolverines. We couldn't see it last weekend when Northwestern came off their loss to Ohio State and got blitzed by Wisconsin. Well, we learn from our mistakes and are clear on this one. And while it certainly won't be a one-sided affair or even an outright Indiana victory, the Hoosiers will play in Ann Arbor really well and be in a spot late in the fourth quarter to win the game. Give me the points here and the underdog IU squad.

4-Unit Play. #378 Take Kansas (+23.5) over Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 19)
Similar with our outlook on the above play, I will gladly take the points and the underdog facing a team fresh off a tough loss and situation where they might be in letdown mode. Plus, how good really is Oklahoma? They weren't tested all that much prior to losing against an average Texas, and I feel like this Kansas team is much better than their 2-3 record suggests on paper. This is too many points for the road favorite to be laying, considering both a letdown possibility and the fact that the Jayhawks are looking for a quality win and a statement result to boost their bowl chances. I'll grab this number and look for a closer game than the experts perhaps are predicting.

4-Unit Play. #310 Take Virginia (-2) over Duke (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 19)
I agree the Wahoos should be favored at home. I also actually think it should be more than a field goal, not less. Virginia isn't anything to write home about, but I am thinking the exact same and more about Duke away from home. The Cavaliers' both victories this season have been at home and I think number three is in conference play this afternoon against the Blue Devils. The home team has won three straight in this series and five of the past six games. That trend holds up in Charlottesville today, as the better team win in front of their home fans and student body.

4-Unit Play. #384 Take Notre Dame (-3) over Southern California (7:30 p.m., Saturday, October 19)
Not quite sure why the Irish are only a field goal favorite over USC but I am okay with betting them. Notre Dame, despite just not liking this program as an objective fan, are much better this season than the Trojans. And one victory at home over a bad Arizona team after the firing of Lane Kiffin doesn't change anything in my mind. If I was going to create this line it would be around twice the number at -6. That being said, there is a lot of value on Notre Dame in this one. They have a big edge in the passing game as their quarterback play has been much more consistent than USC's signal caller. Lay the modest number in this non-conference rivalry.

4-Unit Play. #324 Take Clemson (+3) over Florida State (8 p.m., Saturday, October 19)
The wrong team is favored. Don't get me wrong, it's tough to know exactly who of these two ACC teams is the best until they show it against each other. But why is Florida State favored in Clemson? Who have they beaten? Clemson have a win over Georgia. Florida State still need to prove it against an elite team. Clemson with Tajh Boyd are the better team from what I have seen the first two months of the college football season. This could easily be a coin flip game or going either way based on personal preference. But for my money Boyd is the best player in this contest. Combine that with Clemson being at home and catching a small number and this one is too good to pass up. Take the Tigers over the Seminoles.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

NCAA - Week 8

7-Unit College Football Game of the Year --- ALABAMA -28

3-Unit S. CAROLINA -7
3-Unit ISU +33.5
3-Unit UTAH +4
2-Unit ARMY +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc

4 Unit Play. #338 Take Wyoming Cowboys -6.5 over Colorado State Rams (Saturday 2 pm) The Cowboys have been playing lackluster since pounding Air Force four weeks ago, and I really feel that they are due for a breakout performance. We will lay the wood with them on Saturday. Wyoming does not really have a strong defense, and thus the Rams will be able to move the football on them. However, I just do not believe CSU can keep pace with QB Brett Smith for 60 minutes. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up in the last four Border War meetings. The home team has covered three straight games. Never like to lay a ton of points in a rivalry, but the Pokes will outscore their way to a victory in this game.

4 Unit Play. #347 Take Oregon State Beavers -9.5 over California Golden Bears (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN 2) We went against Cal last week in a similar starting time and expect a similar result again on Saturday. Oregon State had nothing to play for last year when they faced Cal at the end of the season and still beat them by a score of 62-14. The Bears are allowing 43.7 points per game, and thus we will be able to cover this big number on the road. Cal did a good job stopping the UCLA running attack last week, but they still lost by 27 points. I expect the Beavers to put it up in the air early and often. Oregon State has covered four straight games in Berkeley, and it will be 5-for-5 early Sunday morning!

4 Unit Play. #360 Take South Alabama Jaguars -6.5 over Kent State Golden Flashes (Saturday 3 pm ESPN 3) It is always hard to jump out of conference at this point in the season, but that is exactly what faces both of these teams. Kent State had a tremendous 2012 season, but things have not gone well thus far in 2013. They dropped a tough game to Ball State last week, and I do not believe that they will be up for this game. This is also the Golden Flashes fifth road game in the last six weeks. This is just too much for this team to overcome. South Alabama has covered four straight games. Kent State is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 nonconference games.

6 Unit Play. #380 Take Oklahoma State Cowboys -7 over TCU Horned Frogs (Saturday 12 pm FOX) Big 12 Game of the Year. The Cowboys have much better talent than how they have been playing this season, and I expect that they are due for a breakout performance, and it will come on Saturday. The Horned Frogs are well-coached, but they just do not have the talent this year, especially to be competitive in the Big 12. I do not believe that this team will be bowl eligible come December, and this is one game they have no business keeping it close. In the meeting last year, the Pokes started off terrible and still won in Fort Worth by 22 points. Oklahoma State is 21-8 as a home favorite, including 6-0 in 2012. They have great defensive backs that can play man coverage and allow the front seven to blitz at will. TCU is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a victory. Oklahoma State is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss in their previous game.

4 Unit Play. #382 Take Stanford Cardinal -5.5 over UCLA Bruins (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN 2) The Cardinal have been shell shocked after their disappointing performance in Utah last week and now find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to a BCS bowl game. This is a must-win game in order to right the ship, but they will have their hands full with a very talented UCLA roster. That being said, I expect Stanford to open up the play calling in this game and allow Kevin Hogan to win this game. UCLA was one-dimensional last week against California, rushing for just 78 yards, and that plays right into the hands of Stanford. The Cardinal have a strong pass rush, and I just do not see how UCLA will be able to run the football if they could not do it last week against Cal. UCLA is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games played during the month of October. Stanford is 19-8 ATS (one push) in their last 28 PAC-12 games. If Stanford plays to win, they will emerge victorious by double-digits.

4 Unit Play. #384 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2.5 over USC Trojans (Saturday 7:30 pm NBC) A night game is what we have in store for this annual matchup. The Trojans showed some life last week against Arizona with a quick start, but they still had to hang on for a victory against a bad team. Notre Dame is coming off an impressive victory against Arizona State in their last outing; a Sun Devil team that put up 62 points on this same Trojans team. All the sharp money seems to be coming on USC, but I just do not believe that is warranted. Coach Ed Oregeron did not win any big games at Ole Miss, and I do not believe it will start at USC. Just because people thought USC would be good at the start of the season does not mean you cannot jump on their sinking jump. Notre Dame at home gets the job done.

3 Unit Play. #410 Take Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The two best teams in the NFC East currently sit at 3-3, but the winner of this game will take a leg up in a very weak division. Dallas is really banged up at the moment with DeMarcus Ware and DeMarco Murray doubtful for this game. That puts the Cowboys as a one-dimensional team, and that will not get the job done against Philadelphia. To me it does not matter who starts at quarterback for Philadelphia as either one of them will be able to move the football on the Cowboys defense that was picked apart by Denver two weeks ago. Dallas is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a victory in their previous game. Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against NFC teams.

3 Unit Play. #420 Take Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) The Ravens looked bad last week against the Packers yet still gave us a cover with a late rally in the second half. Expect their luck to continue this week against Pittsburgh, a team that earned their first victory of the season last week against the New York Jets. Baltimore is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played during the month of October. Pittsburgh continues to play hard against a team that cannot run the football or protect their quarterback.

4 Unit Play. #424 Take OVER 46.5 in Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants (Monday 8:45 pm ESPN) Top NFL Game of the Week. Both of these coaches are squarely on the hot seat, and the teams have one combined win. That being said, we will not worry about which team comes out on top and just expect a high-scoring shootout as both team can move the football. They also are prone to turnovers, and that should give a short field to both teams. Minnesota has gone over the posted total in five straight games and seven of their last eight Monday Night Football games. New York has gone over the posted total in four straight home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

CFB FLORIDA at MISSOURI
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (MISSOURI) off a road win against a conference rival against opponent off a road loss
47-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.8% 0.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% 0.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Best Bets

5* - [363] Florida -3 -107 vs Missouri

5* - [366] Mississippi +10 -102 vs LSU

4* - [324] Clemson +3 -110 vs Florida State

4* - [391] Georgia -7 -105 vs Vanderbilt

3* - [381] UCLA +4.5 -105 vs Stanford

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine

CFB SIDES

357 3:30 pm North Tx @ latech ♦ -6 ♦ 14.0 ♦ 60.8%

318 3:00 pm @ Cent Mi niu ♦ 17 ♦ -9.6 ♦ 58.2%

319 12:00 pm Purdue @ msu ♦ 28 ♦ -22.5 ♦ 58.1%

311 1:00 pm Army @ temple ♦ 2.5 ♦ 6.4 ♦ 57.6%

385 8:00 pm Rice @ nmst. ♦ -17.5 ♦ 24.3 ♦ 57.5%

340 3:30 pm @ Tex A&M auburn ♦ -12.5 ♦ 19.1 ♦ 57.4%

392 12:00 pm @ Vandy uga ♦ 7.5 ♦ -2.4 ♦ 57.0%

Rest of the Card
364 12:21 pm @ mizzou fla 3 1.5 56.6%

346 12:30 pm @ gatech syr -7 12.9 56.2%

314 1:00 pm @ eastmi ohio 17 -11.2 56.1%

378 3:30 pm @ kansas okla 23 -17.1 56.0%

310 3:30 pm @ uva duke -2.5 8.5 55.9%

341 10:00 pm washst @ oregon 39 -30.6 55.5%

326 3:30 pm @ wake md 6 -1.0 55.4%

368 3:30 pm @ hou byu 9.5 -4.8 55.2%

330 12:00 pm @ nw minn -12.5 15.5 54.6%

388 8:00 pm @ boise nevada -22 26.7 54.5%

372 7:00 pm @ txst gast -17 20.7 54.4%

375 7:00 pm iast @ baylor 33.5 -26.4 54.2%

382 3:30 pm @ stan ucla -6 9.8 54.1%

389 8:00 pm wisc @ ill -12.5 14.9 53.4%

365 7:00 pm lsu @ miss -7.5 9.6 53.3%

351 7:00 pm ark @ ala 28 -24.7 53.2%

335 12:00 pm smu @ mem 3.5 -0.6 53.1%

369 3:30 pm umass @ buff 20.5 -18.1 53.0%

360 3:00 pm @ usa kentst -6.5 8.8 53.0%

328 12:00 pm @ wvu txtch 7 -4.1 52.9%

343 3:30 pm ind @ mich 8.5 -6.7 52.7%

394 10:00 pm @ ari utah -4 6.4 52.4%

355 6:00 pm wash @ arist 3 -0.6 52.3%

353 12:00 pm sc @ tenn -7.5 8.8 52.1%

374 1:00 pm @ mia-o akron 7.5 -6.4 51.8%

396 10:00 pm @ fres unlv -24.5 26.2 51.5%

321 12:00 pm soumis @ ecu 22.5 -21.5 51.1%

323 8:00 pm flast @ clem -3 4.3 51.1%

384 7:30 pm @ nd usc -3 4.0 51.0%

332 12:00 pm @ toledo navy -7.5 8.1 50.9%

349 3:30 pm iowa @ ohiost 17 -16.4 50.8%

316 2:00 pm @ westmi ballst 19 -18.4 50.6%

338 2:00 pm @ wyo colost -7 7.6 50.5%

347 10:30 pm orest @ cal -11 11.5 50.5%

380 12:00 pm @ okst tcu -7.5 7.6 50.1%

334 12:00 pm @ cin uconn -14 14.0 50.1%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine

CFB TOTALS

350 3:30 PM IOWA @ OHIOST. ♦ 55.5 ♦ 47.1 ♦ Under - 60.6%

326 3:30 PM MD @ WAKE ♦ 50.5 ♦ 40.2 ♦ Under - 60.5%

320 12:00 PM PURDUE @ MSU ♦ 43 ♦ 37.1 ♦ Under - 60.3%

344 3:30 PM IND @ MICH ♦ 67 ♦ 57.4 ♦ Under - 60.3%

372 7:00 PM GAST @ TXST. ♦ 49 ♦ 58.8 ♦ Over - 60.1%

396 10:00 PM UNLV @ FRES ♦ 73 ♦ 59.4 ♦ Under - 59.0%

386 8:00 PM RICE @ NMST. ♦ 58 ♦ 68.6 ♦ Over - 58.6%

342 10:00 PM WASHST @ OREGON ♦ 73 ♦ 61.4 ♦ Under - 58.6%

340 3:30 PM AUBURN @ TEXA&M ♦ 71.5 ♦ 80.3 ♦ Over - 58.6%

368 3:30 PM BYU @ HOU ♦ 62 ♦ 53.0 ♦ Under - 57.4%

374 1:00 PM AKRON @ MIA-O ♦ 44.5 ♦ 49.4 ♦ Over - 57.2%

378 3:30 PM OKLA @ KANSAS ♦ 49 ♦ 56.0 ♦ Over - 57.1%

Rest of the Card
356 6:00 PM WASH @ ARIST 65.5 57.0 Under 56.9%

330 12:00 PM MINN @ NW 53.5 48.6 Under 56.7%

358 3:30 PM NORTX @ LATECH 54.5 60.0 Over 56.3%

314 1:00 PM OHIO @ EASTMI 57 62.7 Over 56.2%

328 12:00 PM TXTCH @ WVU 57 63.9 Over 56.0%

380 12:00 PM TCU @ OKST 50.5 45.3 Under 55.9%

312 1:00 PM ARMY @ TEMPLE 59 65.5 Over 55.4%

392 12:00 PM UGA @ VANDY 61.5 65.9 Over 55.2%

352 7:00 PM ARK @ ALA 48.5 52.0 Over 55.1%

382 3:30 PM UCLA @ STAN 54 59.2 Over 54.8%

360 3:00 PM KENTST @ USA 56.5 52.4 Under 54.2%

332 12:00 PM NAVY @ TOLEDO 55 58.0 Over 53.9%

394 10:00 PM UTAH @ ARI 58.5 62.6 Over 53.7%

324 8:00 PM FLAST @ CLEM 64 59.3 Under 53.4%

388 8:00 PM NEVADA @ BOISE 67 62.5 Under 53.0%

376 7:00 PM IAST @ BAYLOR 75.5 71.5 Under 52.9%

354 12:00 PM SC @ TENN 54.5 56.3 Over 52.5%

336 12:00 PM SMU @ MEM 46.5 44.8 Under 51.8%

322 12:00 PM SOUMIS @ ECU 53.5 52.3 Under 51.5%

364 12:21 PM FLA @ MIZZOU 44 44.7 Over 51.3%

366 7:00 PM LSU @ MISS 60 61.0 Over 51.3%

338 2:00 PM COLOST @ WYO 66.5 64.9 Under 51.1%

316 2:00 PM BALLST @ WESTMI 57.5 58.5 Over 51.1%

334 12:00 PM UCONN @ CIN 46 45.0 Under 51.0%

370 3:30 PM UMASS @ BUFF 47 47.6 Over 50.8%

390 8:00 PM WISC @ ILL 55.5 56.1 Over 50.7%

384 7:30 PM USC @ ND 50.5 49.9 Under 50.6%

318 3:00 PM NIU @ CENTMI 59 59.5 Over 50.6%

348 10:30 PM OREST @ CAL 69 69.6 Over 50.5%

346 12:30 PM SYR @ GATECH 54.5 55.0 Over 50.4%

310 3:30 PM DUKE @ UVA 52 51.8 Under 50.2%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sports Syndicate

CFB
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at East Carolina Pirates
Noon EST – Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Current Line – East Carolina (-22.5)

A rough year looks to possibly get worse Saturday as So Miss visits East Carolina, fresh off a loss last week to Tulane in 3OT. So Miss is truly one of the worst offensive teams in the country (ranked 119) and only average 303 yds per game. East Carolina, who is at home for the first time in a month, has been stingy defensively until last week and we think they will make it very difficult for So Miss to score. ECU is scoring 34 pts per game and So Miss is only scoring 12 on their own. We are going against some trends here as the visitor has won the last 3 games SU and in the last 8 contests, they are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS. With all of that said, this is a terrible So Miss team that will be completely destroyed by an angry Pirate team coming home. The Sharps say..

Sharps Play – 3 UNIT PLAY ON EAST CAROLINA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves
By JASON LOGAN

College football sprints past the halfway mark of the schedule in Week 8. Bettors have a good idea which programs are for real and which ones aren’t, keeping this Saturday’s odds on the move.

We talk to sportsbooks about the biggest adjustments to the NCAAF lines and where they could end up come kickoff Saturday.

UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal – Open: -5.5, Move: -7, Move: -4.5

This line has been on a ride since post, climbing as high as Stanford at a touchdown before action bought back the Bruins as low as +4.5 at some markets.

“Tuesday got sharp bet on the favorite, so moved to -6. Then we took a sharp bet on underdog, so moved to current number of 5.5,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com tells Covers. “So far, 60 percent of the money is on the Cardinal.”

Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: +8, Move: +5

This Big 12 battle has jumped from one dead number to the next at some books, coming down as many as three points with action on the home side.

According to Aron Black of Bet365.com, this line move has everything to do with the unsettled QB options for both TTU and WVU heading into Saturday. Red Raiders QB Baker Mayfield is questionable with a knee injury and Mountaineers QB Ford Childress is out with a torn pectoral muscle.

“The line going to WVU looks more to do with them having more QB options, with TTU QB Baker Mayfield questionable,” Black tells Covers. “Action has been fairly split, but early action liked WVU +7, and they’re now coming back with some TTU -5.5.”

Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers – Open: +3, Move: +3.5

This spread was made with Tigers QB James Franklin out of action, but wasn’t discounting Missouri too much after last week’s upset over Georgia. This isn’t the biggest move on the board but sharp money has been loud and clear about its choice in this SEC showdown.

“On Tuesday, we got a wiseguy bet on Gators, so moved to Florida -3.5,” says Perry. “Sixty-five percent of the cash is on the Gators.”

Navy Midshipmen at Toledo Rockets – Open: -6.5, Move: -10

The Middies limp into Week 8 with a long list of injuries, including QB Keenan Reynolds, who is dealing with an illness heading into Saturday. Money on the home team has moved this past a TD and to another key number of 10.

“Not the biggest game obviously but a full field-goal move is rather large,” says Black. “All down to injuries with Navy, with numerous questionables and doubtfuls on both sides of the ball for them. Action has been all on Toledo with the moves.”

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers – Open: +3.5, Move: +2.5

Some books have cut a full point off the line for this ACC war, with both the sharps and public pounding the Tigers at home. Perry says about 70 percent of the action is on Clemson heading into the weekend.

“Wiseguys seem to like the dog here,” he says. “Tuesday night, we got sharp play on the Tigers +3.5.”

LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels – Open: +7.5, Move: +10

This spread reached Ole Miss +10.5 before money showed up on the home team. The Rebels will likely be without RB Jeff Scott and numerous members of the defense while LSU is expected to start QB Zach Mettenberger, who is nursing a shin injury.

“LSU needs to run the table from here on out,” says Black. “Although they started as worthy favorites at Ole Miss, the injury news has been favorable for the Tigers and not so much for the Rebels, forcing the line to go much further to LSU than the opener. Action has been liking LSU since release at about a 3/1 clip.”

USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -3, Move: -3.5

It seems weird to have this yearly rivalry take place between two unranked programs. But even though USC and Notre Dame aren’t among the nation’s elite, action is still fast and furious on this game. According to Perry, both sharp and public money are siding with the Irish in South Bend.

“We got a sharp play on the Irish Wednesday, so moved to -3.5,” he says. “About 75 percent of the cash is backing Notre Dame.”

Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores – Open: +9, Move: +7

A laundry list of injuries for UGA has taken this spread down as many as two points at some markets. Running back Todd Gurley headlines the Bulldog’s walking wounded, as does fellow RB Keith Marshall and numerous defensive players.

“Vandy is nothing special, but coming off a bye week will have given them good practice time and recovery for guys carrying slight injuries,” says Black. “A TD line may look like good value on the Dogs, but this is possibly a real banana skin for them. Action has been light, but most of what we have is sticking with Bulldogs to cover.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Florida State at Clemson: What bettors need to know

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (+3, 64)

The date marked on many calendars comes Saturday when No. 4 Clemson hosts No. 5 Florida State in an ACC showdown of undefeated rivals. The matchup has determined the division champion the past four years and this season's winner will remain a central figure in the national championship discussion. "It's the biggest game of the year, just like last week was the biggest game of the year," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney told reporters. "They're all big. Some have special circumstances attached to them like this one."

While both teams boast exciting offenses - and quarterbacks Tajh Boyd and Jameis Winston are among the national leaders in several passing categories - they also rank in the top 10 in the nation in scoring defense with Florida State (12 points per game) third and Clemson (16.2) 10th. The Seminoles haven't won at Clemson since 2001 and the home team has won 10 of the past 11 meetings. Florida State rallied in the second half for a 49-37 victory last year in Tallahassee.

TV: 8:22 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: Florida State opened at -2.5 and moved to -3, however, some Las Vegas books are dealing FSU -1. The total moved from 63.5 to 64.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 60s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing west at 5 mph.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (5-0, 2-0 ACC, 4-1 ATS): Winston has been immune to typical freshman mistakes as he ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency and has thrown only two interceptions, helping the Seminoles lead the nation with just three giveaways. Florida State ranks fourth in the country in total offense (549 yards per game) and has racked up 400 or more total yards in 14 of its last 19 contests. The defense has been equally impressive and is coming off its best showing of the season in a 63-0 rout of Maryland two weeks ago, holding the Terrapins to 234 total yards.

ABOUT CLEMSON (6-0, 4-0, 3-3 ATS): With Boyd (1,783 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, two interceptions) back at the helm, the Tigers' offense has been everything it was expected to be. Boyd boasts the best career passing efficiency mark in ACC history and has a bevy of receiving options as 11 players have caught touchdown passes. The Tigers' defense has been a surprising strength, though, holding five straight opponents to 14 points or fewer and limiting Boston College star Andre Williams to 70 yards on 24 carries in a 24-14 victory last week.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
* Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Seminoles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight meetings in Clemson.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Boyd, already Clemson's career passing leader, needs 164 yards to become the third quarterback in ACC history to reach 10,000 (Philip Rivers 13,484; Thaddeus Lewis 10,065).

2. No visiting team starting a freshman quarterback has won at Clemson since Tyrod Taylor and Virginia Tech in 2007.

3. Clemson has won 11 straight ACC games by double digits dating to last year's loss at Florida State. The Seminoles have won nine straight conference games - seven of them by double digits.