10-19-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

North Coast:

4 Wisconsin over ILLINOIS
3 GEORGIA TECH over Syracuse
3 HOUSTON over Byu
2 Usc (+) over NOTRE DAME
2 OKLAHOMA ST over Tcu

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Red Sheet:

Oregon State 45 - CALIFORNIA 20 89*
Byu 34 - HOUSTON 13 - 89*
BUFFALO 48 - Massachusetts 7 88*
Ball State 45 - WESTERN MICHIGAN 13 88*
OHIO STATE 38 - Iowa 13 88*

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Playbook:

5 WV by 7
4 Clemson by 10
3 Army by 8

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Winning Points BEST BETS:

Oregon State by 35

South Alabama by 22

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scherzer tries to tie up ALCS 3-3 on Saturday
by Freddy Wander

AL Championship Series
Game 6 - Boston leads series 3-2
First pitch: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -120, Detroit +110, Total: 7

The Tigers will now need to win two in a row on the road to make it to the World Series in consecutive years, while Red Sox will look to close out the series in six games on Saturday.

The stage is set for a huge matchup on Saturday afternoon and Detroit is happy to be sending the American League’s wins leader in 2013, right-hander Max Scherzer (22-3, 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). Attempting to pitch the Red Sox into the 2013 fall classic will be their best pitcher, right-hander Clay Buchholz (12-1, 2.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), who is starting his fourth career playoff game. The Tigers needed to take Game 5 at home in order to bring momentum into Fenway Park over the weekend, but could not complete a comeback after falling into a 4-0 hole early in Thursday's eventual 4-3 defeat. Scherzer and Buchholz last matched up in Game 2 of the ALCS, with Scherzer dominating the Boston batters (13 strikeouts, 2 hits, 1 run in 7 IP) but eventually watching from the dugout as DH David Ortiz clubbed a grand slam to tie the game in the same inning that he was lifted. Buchholz did not have as much success in this game, giving up eight hits and five runs (2 home runs) over 5.2 innings pitched. The season series keeps flip-flopping between these two teams and with Boston’s win on Thursday night, each team has won six games. The Red Sox are now 56-29 (.659) at home on the season and have lost two games in a row at Fenway only one time since mid-May. The Tigers are now 45-41 (.523) on the road this year.

Detroit’s Max Scherzer had a Cy Young-caliber regular season, leading the American League in both wins (21) and WHIP (0.97). His ability to miss bats (10.1 K/9, 2nd in majors) while issuing a career-low 2.4 BB/9 has kept him in games while putting up these outstanding numbers. Scherzer pitched brilliantly against the Sox in Game 2 and has been pitching well all this postseason (2-0, .148 opponents' BA, 26 K's in 16 IP) over three games (2 starts), but he has not always had success against Boston. In nine career starts against them, Scherzer has gone 2-4 (team 3-6) with a 6.20 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. DH David Ortiz (7-for-17, 3 HR, 6 RBI) has been the Red Sox top weapon against Scherzer in the past, but despite the series-changing grand slam, is only 2-for-19 with 4 K's in the ALCS. Other top offensive contributors for the Sox such as 1B Mike Napoli and OF Shane Victorino have really struggled against the Detroit righty with a combined .160 BA (4-for-25) with 0 RBI and 9 K's. The bullpen for the Tigers has been shaky all year (18-27, 4.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) and their struggles have continued into October (0-1, 4.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). They did look good in Game 5 though with three scoreless innings, and hope to continue this in Boston. Closer Joaquin Benoit (4-1, 24 saves, 2.01 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in regular season) has pitched in six of the Tigers postseason games so far and does have three saves, but blew a save and owns a 6.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in that time.

Clay Buchholz had a short but sweet season in 2013, missing just over three months in the middle part of the season. He has still managed 12 wins in just 18 starts (team is 15-3) while giving up only four 11 home runs in 120 innings pitched, but five of those longballs have come in his past three starts. With his struggles this postseason (8 ER, 15 H in 11.2 IP), Buchholz is still winless in three career playoff starts with a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Over his career, Buchholz has made nine starts against the Tigers in his career, going 2-1 (team is 6-3) with a 4.18 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. OF Jhonny Peralta has not always done amazing against Buchholz (6-for-20, 4 K's) but does have seven RBI in that time. Other Detroit regulars OF Austin Jackson, 1B Prince Fielder and OF Torii Hunter are a combined 11-for-58 (.190 BA) with 13 strikeouts and one homer in this matchup with Buchholz. The Boston ‘pen has been strong throughout the entire year (32-23, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) and has even stepped it up a notch in the playoffs (2-1, 0.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 4 saves). Closer Koji Uehara (4-1, 21 saves, 1.09 ERA, 0.57 WHIP in regular season) has not walked a batter since Aug. 3 and looks unstoppable this postseason with a 1.13 ERA, .148 opponents' BA and 11 strikeouts in eight innings), especially against Detroit (5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 7 K's hits). Uehara now has three saves in the postseason where he pitched more than just the ninth inning, including throwing 27 pitches in 1.2 innings with a one-run lead in Game 5 of the ALCS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC 166 Betting The best main card MMA prop plays
By MMAODDSBREAKER

Here are five UFC 166 main card prop bets to take a look at Saturday night:

Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos

Junior dos Santos wins inside the distance (+240)

I know most people are on Cain Velasquez in the main event of UFC 166, but I’m on the other side. I’m picking Junior dos Santos to get the upset win and take back the UFC heavyweight title he lost last year.

If dos Santos wins this fight, it’s going to be via finish. So at +240, I think the prop on dos Santos winning inside the distance presents good value.

Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson

Daniel Cormier/Roy Nelson OVER 1.5 rounds (-280)

The heavyweight fight between Daniel Cormier and Roy Nelson is going to be a slugfest, but it’s most likely going to be a one-sided slugfest with Cormier beating the pulp out of Nelson for five rounds.

The total has been set at only 1.5 rounds and at -280 - a steal in my opinion - I think this prop is most certainly worth parlaying.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez

Gilbert Melendez/Diego Sanchez goes three-round distance (-210)

Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez really should be a cakewalk for Melendez, but with the state of MMA judging, you just never know.

Instead of betting on Melendez, consider a play on the fight going the distance, which is currently only -210. I have this prop capped at -500, so there’s exceptional value in this spot and it’s worth putting into a two-team parlay.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan

Shawn Jordan/Gabriel Gonzaga does not go the distance (-300)

The heavyweight fight between Shawn Jordan and Gabriel Gonzaga features two of the most powerful finishers in the entire division going toe-to-toe. In a matchup between two guys who can turn each other’s lights out with one shot, I’m not banking on either side.

Instead, I like a bet on the fight doesn’t go the distance, which is currently -300. I have this prop capped at -600 for this bout, so I believe there is extreme value in this line and think it’s great parlay fodder.

John Dodson vs. Darrell Montague

John Dodson/Darrell Montague UNDER 2.5 rounds (+145)

And finally, the PPV card opens with a bang as flyweights John Dodson and Darrell Montague will go to war for three rounds or less.

These guys are both finishers and I don’t see this fight going the distance. The total on the fight going UNDER 2.5 rounds, which currently pays +145, is probably the best bet for this entire fight

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB DETROIT at BOSTON
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL)
220-89 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.2% 71.7 units )
43-28 this year. ( 60.6% -0.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB DETROIT at BOSTON
BOSTON is 78-40 (+20.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.
The average score was: BOSTON (5.7) , OPPONENT (4.0)

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MajorCovers

Auburn +14
Arkansas +29
Georgia/Vandy Under 61
Texas Tech -5
Duke +3

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Burns CFB
10* Stanford
10* Cal
10* Clemson
10* Illinois
9* Tennessee

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Totals4U
2013 SEC Conference Triple Lock Parlay of the Year!!!!!
South Carolina/Tennessee over 54
Georgia/Vanderbilt over 61 1/2
Florida/Missouri over 43 1/2Early Best Bets
Minnesota/Northwestern under 53 1/2
Texas Christian/OKlahoma State over 51 1/2

2013 PAC 12 Conference Watch & Win Total of the Year!!!!!
UCLA/Stanford over 53 1/2

Afternoon Best Bets
Auburn/Texas A&M over 72
Iowa/Ohio State under 54
Oklahoma/Kansas under 49 1/2
Maryland/Wake Forest under 51

2013 College Football Undefeateds Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Florida State/Clemson under 64

Late Best Bets
Alabama/Arkansas under 49
Louisiana State/Mississippi under 60
Southern California/Notre Dame under 51
Oregon State/California under 71 1/2

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SATURDAY

4* BEST BET = WEST VIRGINIA
3* = CENTRAL MICHIGAN
3* = OREGON STATE
2* = INDIANA
2* = ALABAMA

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Cajun Sports Wire

GAME: Oregon State Beavers vs. California Golden Bears 10:30PM EST

RATING: 5.5* Oregon State Beavers -9.5
ANALYSIS:

The Oregon State Beavers leave the friendly confines of Corvallis and make the trip south to Berkeley for a Pac 12 battle against the host Golden Bears. Bad defense has plagued Bears head coach Sonny Dykes even when he as at Louisiana Tech where his 2012 team finished dead last in total defense allowing 526 yards per game. His current Bears team is evidently trying to match that horrible defense because they are allowing 518 yards per game this season. Some of the Bears defensive woes can be attributed to injuries which have accounted for two thirds of the starters listed on the Bears preseason depth chart all missing in action due to injuries. This is bad news for Cal backers as Beavers QB Sean Mannion is quietly putting together a monster season completing 67 percent of his passes for 418 yards per game with an unbelievable 25 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. The Beavers are 5-1 ATS the last six in this series and 4-1 ATS the last five in Berkeley. The Bears have dropped four straight after defeating Portland State losing by an average of 26.5 points per game. California is 0-5 straight up and against the spread versus FBS opponents under Sonny Dykes which makes their current record their last ten versus FBS foes 0-10 both straight up and against the number. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 15.2-points per game. The Math model projects a point differential of 6.85-points with a current line range of 10 to 12.5. With significant advantages on both sides of the ball and solid line value based on our Primary Indexes we will lay the points here as the Beavers roll over the Golden Bears on Saturday.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 5.5* Oregon State Beavers 46 California Bears 17

GAME: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Illini 8:00PM EST

RATING: 5* Wisconsin Badgers -12

ANALYSIS:

The Badgers cashed for us as our Big 10 Game of the Month as they rolled over Northwestern 35 to 6 and we are back on them again this week. We note that the Badgers have cashed seven straight times after facing Northwestern. This group of Badgers has held five of six foes to season low in yards as their defense has been solid. The Illini hold a pair of technical angle advantages but they are offset by head coach Tim Beckman's record of 0-9 straight up and 1-8 against the spread versus conference foes. The Illini were routed by Nebraska in Lincoln their last time out losing 39 to 19 to the Huskers. That loss triggers an almost perfect situation that tells us to play against the Illini when coming off a road loss of at least 20 points because they are 1-8 against the number in this situation. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 16.6-points in this contest. The Math Model projects a point differential of 5.49-points with a current line range of -11.5 to 13.5. With significant advantages on both sides of the ball we will stick with the red hot Badgers as they roll another opponent on Saturday in Champaign.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Wisconsin Badgers 40 Illinois Illini 19

GAME: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. West Virginia Mountaineers 12:00PM EST

RATING: 4.5* West Virginia Mountaineers +7

ANALYSIS:

The Mountaineers enter this contest at home with legitimate revenge in play for a 49 to 14 beating they took in Lubbock last year. West Virginia was coming off their big win at Texas when they lost to this Red Raiders team last year. Texas Tech comes into this game with a much better record on the year but a closer look shows us their opponents combined records on the season are only 10-17 straight up while West Vriginia's opponents have a combined mark of 19-9 straight up on the season. Texas Tech is 1-6 ATS coming off a straight up and against the spread win facing a rested opponent. This group of Mountaineers pulled off a major upset of Oklahoma State earlier this season winning 30 to 21 as 19.5-point home unerdogs. A key factor in this game the Mountaineers are 21-3 straight up at home when playing with rest with their only losses coming by one, three and four points. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.8-points. The Math Model projects a point differential of +2.25-points. We know that conference home underdogs of six or more points playing with rest and revenge with a TPR and MM average of 1.0-points or better are 40-19-3 ATS including a perfect 11-0 ATS the last eleven. With strong situational and fundamental advantages we will take the points in Morgantown on Saturday as the Mountaineers shock the Red Raiders.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* West Virginia Mountaineers 30 Texas Tech Red Raiders 29

[Can'tPickAWinner]

philly godfather

•STRAIGHT BET [381] UCLA +6-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [364] MISSOURI +3½-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [354] TENNESSEE U +7-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [360] SOUTH ALABAMA -6½-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [317] NO ILLINOIS -15½-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [358] LOUISIANA TECH +7-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [348] CALIFORNIA +11-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [340] TEXAS A&M -12-105 200:
•STRAIGHT BET [334] CINCINNATI U -13½-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [326] WAKE FOREST +6½-105 100:
•TRAIGHT BET [310] VIRGINIA -2-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [407] CHICAGO +1-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [324] CLEMSON +4-115 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [344] MICHIGAN -8½-105 100:
•STRAIGHT BET [324] CLEMSON +3-105 200

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Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost on Friday with the Dodgers -$130/Cardinals and has Np for Saturday.

"Mr Chalk" is 3-4 -$175 for the week 111-73 +$210 for the 2013 MLB season.

For Saturday Ben lee likes

(1) UCLA +5.5/Stanford

(2) *Ohio St -18/Iowa (Best Bet)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy afternoon shootout of the month

TCU game OVER