10-20-13

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DCI Pro Football

Week 7 Scores/Predictions



Thursday, October 17, 2013
Seattle 21.6 at ARIZONA 16.3, 8:25 pm ET
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Tampa Bay 15.2 at ATLANTA 29.1, 1:00 pm ET
Cincinnati 21.3 at DETROIT 22.2, 1:00 pm ET
Buffalo 18.7 at MIAMI 26.9, 1:00 pm ET
New England 25.2 at N.Y. JETS 13.0, 1:00 pm ET
Dallas 33.1 at PHILADELPHIA 29.7, 1:00 pm ET
Chicago 26.8 at WASHINGTON 25.5, 1:00 pm ET
St. Louis 16.6 at CAROLINA 25.1, 1:00 pm ET
San Diego 30.1 at JACKSONVILLE 14.4, 1:00 pm ET
San Francisco 25.8 at TENNESSEE 18.0, 4:05 pm ET
Houston 13.2 at KANSAS CITY 23.9, 4:25 pm ET
Baltimore 23.4 at PITTSBURGH 16.0, 4:25 pm ET
Cleveland 15.2 at GREEN BAY 30.6, 4:25 pm ET
Denver 32.3 at INDIANAPOLIS 27.2, 8:30 pm ET
Monday, October 21, 2013
Minnesota 29.5 at N.Y. GIANTS 25.9, 8:40 pm ET

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Dunkel Index

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 20 Time Posted: 10:00 p.m. EST (10/16)

Game 397-398: New England at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 135.551; NY Jets 133.905 Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: New England by 4; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+4); Over

Game 399-400: San Diego at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 124.227; Jacksonville 120.470 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 49 Vegas Line: San Diego by 7 1/2; 45 Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7 1/2); Over

Game 401-402: Houston at Kansas City (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.179; Kansas City 134.702 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3 1/2; 36 Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6 1/2; 40 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+6 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Cincinnati at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.756; Detroit 134.751 Dunkel Line: Even; 52 Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.385; Miami 138.652 Dunkel Line: Miami by 10 1/2; Vegas Line: Miami by 8; 42 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8); Under

Game 407-408: Chicago at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.383; Washington 133.433 Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 46 Vegas Line: Washington by 1; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Under

Game 409-410: Dallas at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.304; Philadelphia 127.184 Dunkel Line: Dallas by 8; 59 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 55 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 411-412: St. Louis at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 128.746; Carolina 131.954 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 47 Vegas Line: Carolina by 6; 42 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6); Over

Game 413-414: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.753; Atlanta 135.974 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 12; 38 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 43 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7); Under

Game 415-416: San Francisco at Tennessee (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 138.809; Tennessee 131.964 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7; 37 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 40 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4); Under

Game 417-418: Cleveland at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 129.437; Green Bay 141.273 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 12; 52 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10; 46 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-10); Over

Game 419-420: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.762; Pittsburgh 127.102 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 36 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 41 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+2); Under

Game 421-422: Denver at Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.447; Indianapolis 142.088 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 60 Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7); Over

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NASCAR betting: Camping World RV Sales 500 preview

Talladega could be sports betting’s biggest craps shoot. The 2.66-mile superspeedway, known for gigantic wrecks, is nearly impossible to predict, leaving NASCAR oddsmakers to post some tight prices heading into this weekend’s Camping World RV Sales 500.

Favorite

Jimmie Johnson (+700)

Johnson is the favorite strictly because he’s the public’s choice most weeks and is always a threat to finish first each weekend. However, the No. 48 car isn’t among the most consistent rides at Talladega. Johnson owns an average finish of 17.1 at Talladega with two wins and six Top 5s in 23 career starts.

Underdog

Brad Keselowski (+1,500)

Keselowski cashed in as our underdog pick last week, so why not stick with the hot driver. He’s only started nine races at Talladega but has finished first in two of those and owns six Top-10 showings in those outings. Keselowski is outside the Chase but is making one strong case for the 2014 season.

Long shot

David Ragan (+4,000)

Ragan is another driver that doesn’t have many notches on his belt at Talladega but has impressed in his limited appearances on the superspeedway. He’s won once, finished inside the Top 5 four times and placed within the Top 10 in six of his 13 career races at Talladega. That victory came earlier this season at the Aaron’s 499 back in May. Ragan has finished first, fourth and seventh in his last three trips to Lincoln, Alabama.

Key stat: According to ESPN, “The Big One” has plagued five of the last seven races at Talladega, with at least 11 cars getting caught up in those infamous wrecks. Last year’s fall race featured a 25-car pileup on the final lap of the race.

Odds to win Camping World RV Sales 500 (courtesy of TopBet)

Jimmie Johnson 8-1
Kyle Busch 9-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10-1
Matt Kenseth 10-1
Jeff Gordon 10-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Brad Keselowski 15-1
Clint Bowyer 15-1
Kasey Kahne 15-1
Kurt Busch 15-1
Carl Edwards 18-1
Joey Logano 20-1
Greg Biffle 20-1
Aric Almirola 30-1
Jamie McMurray 20-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-1
Denny Hamlin 25-1
Ryan Newman 30-1
Jeff Burton 35-1
Danica Patrick 40-1
David Ragan 40-1
Juan Montoya 40-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 40-1
Paul Menard 40-1
Austin Dillon 40-1
Michael Waltrip 40-1
Sam Hornish, Jr. 45-1
David Gilliland 50-1
Trevor Bayne 75-1
Marcos Ambrose 75-1
Dave Blaney 80-1
Casey Mears 80-1
Justin Allgaier 80-1
Field (Any Other Driver) 25-1

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 7's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY

Don’t limit your NFL bets to just sides and totals each Sunday. Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors to the Prop Shop, giving you his favorite player prop picks for Week 7.

Most passing yards

Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears) vs. Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins)

I could sum up this play with one sentence. I don't like what I'm seeing from RGIII.

Jay Cutler can be wildly inconsistent, but for my money, he has a stronger supporting cast than Griffin right now, not to mention the fact that he'll be facing a Redskins defense that has been repeatedly beat down this season.

Cutler is coming off a big bounce-back game against New York last week, throwing for 262 yards and two scores. He and Brandon Marshall will give the Skins secondary a serious test Sunday afternoon.

Take: Cutler

Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Nick Foles (Philadelphia Eagles)

Just when you think that Tony Romo has it all figured out, he generally stinks up the joint.

I'm not saying that Romo is in for a dreadful performance in Philadelphia, but I do expect him to fall short in this particular matchup.

It's rarely a bad idea supporting the Eagles when it comes to individual player props. The simple fact that they run a ton of offensive plays works in our favor. Foles threw for 296 yards in Tampa Bay last week and has tossed five touchdowns without an interception in the last two weeks.

Dallas is also allowing 7.4 yards per pass play this season, a slightly worse mark than the Eagles 7.2

Take: Foles

Most rushing yards

Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers) vs. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Ryan Mathews is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of the season, but there won’t be a repeat performance Sunday. Prior to that outing, Mathews had topped out at 73 rushing yards in a game this year.

The return of Jaguars WR Justin Blackmon from suspension has opened up their anemic offense and RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been a benefactor. He's gained at least 70 yards on the ground in back-to-back games - by far his best two performances of the season.

The Chargers defense looked good Monday, but is still allowing 4.8 yards per rush this season.

Take: Jones-Drew

Most pass receptions

Anquan Boldin (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Kendall Wright (Tennessee Titans)

Last Sunday, it was Vernon Davis' turn to shine. This week, I expect to see Anquan Boldin step to the forefront in the 49ers’ offensive gameplan.

The Titans do possess an extremely physical defense and I believe they match up well against Davis. Boldin has caught just five passes for 49 yards in the last two games, so you can be sure he's eager to get more involved. The 49ers are obviously a better offensive team when Boldin is catching at least seven or eight balls a week.

It's not a difficult decision for the 49ers defense to key on Kendall Wright. He's caught 29 passes in the last five games but should see blanket coverage this week. With Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to him, I don't have a great deal of confidence in Wright's ability to go off.

Take: Boldin

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NFL Betting Week 7 Preview Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTSINTERACTION

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 6’s NFL action.

All odds current as of noon ET, Oct. 17

Peyton’s place

At some point, Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos may not be the top story of the week in the NFL – just don’t count on that happening until they have their bye in Week 9. Right now, Manning is getting ready to visit the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time as a Bronco in easily the most anticipated matchup of the week. Sports Interaction opened Denver as a 6-point road favorite, but that line has moved to -7 already with 88 percent of the action coming in on the Broncos. If you missed taking Denver at less than a touchdown, chances are it’s way too late to get that number now.

Over and out

Remember when seeing a 50-point total on the board actually caught your eye? This week we have three more totals above 50 points and a pile of matchups between teams pounding the over. The total for Denver-Indy is this week’s biggest number at 56.5, which isn’t shocking since Denver hasn’t played under yet this season. Dallas visits Philadelphia and Chip Kelly’s up-tempo attack and that total opened at 56.5 before dropping to 54.5. Chicago, which has played over in five of six games, visits Washington with a 50.5 over/under on the board.

Movers and shakers

The Arizona Cardinals have a lot to prove in this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup with the Seahawks. The last time these two teams hooked up, the Seahawks rubbed it in with a 58-0 win in Seattle. Now the Cardinals, who opened at +6, are looking for revenge. This line jumped to +7 for a while, dropped to +6 and is currently holding at +6.5.

The line for Chicago’s date with Washington should be on the top of your watch list this week. The Redskins opened as 1.5-point favorites and actually jumped to -2 not long after. Since then, the line is coming the other way. The game is currently at a pick ‘em and may bounce around for a while.

Hot and not

The Seahawks are seeing 77 percent of Sports Interaction’s bets at -6.5.

New England bettors are all over the Pats in their second meeting with the Jets this season. With New England set as a 4.5-point road favorite, 88 percent of our action is on the Pats.

Sports Interaction bettors have no faith left in the 0-6 Houston Texans anymore. Only 18 percent of our bets are coming in on Houston as the Texans visit the Chiefs as 6.5-point underdogs.

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Today's CFL Picks

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 20
Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (10/17) Game 497-498: Hamilton at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 116.733; Montreal 113.410
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 3 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-1); Over

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CFL

Week 17

Hamilton (8-7) @ Montreal (6-9)—TiCats (-8) beat Montreal 28-26 in first series meeting in Week 13, Hamilton’s 4th win in last five series games; they outrushed Als 102-47 as home side won for 9th time in last ten series games, with TiCats losing three of last four played here. Six of last nine series games went over total, with average total in those games, 63.9. Hamilton won three of last four games, covered eight of last ten; they’re 3-4 SU on road, covering last five away games- they covered three of last four games when favored. Alouettes lost four of last six games but covered five of last six as an underdog; they were -3 in turnovers last week, reducing season mark to +13, damn good for a 6-9 team. Over is 8-4 in last dozen Montreal games, 1-4 in last five Hamilton games.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Sunday 10/20 4:25 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 40.5 (-110) at TopBet

My how times have changed. It is strange to see both of these teams struggling, with neither over .500 heading into week seven. While they are both respectable on defense, they are both allowing over 20 points per game on the season. The Ravens have allowed 31.7 points per game in their three road tilts. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has given up 28 per game at home this season. It isn't getting better for Baltimore as they have at least four defensive starters either out or ailing. While defense has been the calling card for these clubs, it hasn't been that way when they tangle, as the OVER has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings overall, and 7-2-1 to the OVER in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh. The Ravens have also played to a 13-5 mark to the OVER in their last 18 when following a loss. Under John Harbaugh, Baltimore is 19-10 OVER as a road dog. This one has always looked defensive, but most of the time that simply isn't the case on the scoreboard. Take the OVER.

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ESPN Colin Blazing 5 (and a bonus) with wiseguy assessment in parenthesis:

49ers (Disagree);
Redskins (Agree);
Ravens (Disagree);
Jacksonville (Agree);
New England (Disagree);
Eagles (Agree)

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BeatYourBookie Football Plays

Sunday

10* Play Miami -8 over Buffalo (NFL TOP PLAY)
1:00 PM EST

Buffalo is 3-11 ATS coming off a home game in their last game
Buffalo is 2-8 ATS when playing as a road underdog of 7 points or less


10* Play San Diego -7.5 over Jacksonville (NFL TOP PLAY)
1:00 PM EST

Jacksonville is 3-11 ATS when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Jacksonville is 6-12 ATS in home games the last three seasons


10* Play Green Bay -10 over Cleveland (NFL TOP PLAY)
4:30 PM EST

Green Bay is 15-5 ATS in home games the last three seasons
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards on offense in three straight games


10* Play Indianapolis +6.5 over Denver (NFL TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST

Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS at home when the total posted is greater than 45.5 points
Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS at home when playing after the 1^st month of the season

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XpertPicks

Sunday Football Plays

·Play San Diego -7.5 over Jacksonville (TOP NFL PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
1:00 PM EST

Jacksonville has lost 23 of the last 29 games coming off a loss in their last game and they have also lost 10 of the last 11 games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Jacksonville has lost 14 of the last 15 games when playing as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have lost 21 of the last 26 games when playing after the 1st month of the season.


·Play Philadelphia -2.5 over Dallas (TOP NFL PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
1:00 PM EST

Dallas has lost 12 of the last 17 games against the spread coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have also lost 10 of the last 14 games against the spread vs. division opponents. Dallas has lost 5 consecutive games against the spread coming off a win by 14 points or more in their last game and they have lost 12 of the last 19 games against the spread when the line posted is between +3 to -3.


·Play Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh (TOP NFL PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
4:30 PM EST

Pittsburgh has lost 18 of the last 27 games against the spread vs. AFC Conference Opponents and they have also lost 14 of the last 20 games against the spread when the total posted is between 35.5 and 42 points. Pittsburgh has lost 11 of the last 15 games against the spread after having lost four of the last five games and they are only averaging 16 points a game on offense in home games this season.



·Play Green Bay -10 over Cleveland (BONUS NFL PLAY)---RISK 5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
·Play Indianapolis +6.5 over Denver (BONUS NFL PLAY)---RISK 5% OF YOUR BANKROLL

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Dwayne Bryant

triple dime play
Jaguars.

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Cappers Access

Lions -2
Steelers -2.5
Broncos -6.5

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2Halves2Win (0-1 Week 7, 58% YTD):

(GAME: 1*): Patriots -4(-105: Risking 1.05 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
(GAME: 1*): Jaguars +9(-130: Risking 1.30 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
(GAME: 1*): Chiefs -6(-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
(GAME: 1*): Falcons -6.5(-105: Risking 1.05 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

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PROS KNOWS BIO SPORTS

10/20 NFL Top Investment Total of the Week

3u Broncos/Colts OVER 56

10/20 NFL Official Plays

1u Jets +3.5 -110

1u Texans +7 -130

1u Lions -2.5 -115

1u Bills +7.5 -110

1u Ravens +2.5 -110