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Burns MAIN EVENT Colts
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Where the action is: Bettors backing Broncos Over trend
Sunday Night Football features the anticipated return of Peyton Manning to Indianapolis as the Colts host the Denver Broncos.
We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on the Sunday Night Football matchup and where oddsmakers see the line closing come kickoff:
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5, 57.5)
Depending on where you shop, the Broncos were listed as 5.5-point faves to touchdown faves in this week's Sunday night tilt.
Sharps jumped on the Colts at the +7 mark while the public has essentially been backing the favored Broncos at any number.
"We opened the Broncos -7 versus the Colts, and the first bet we booked was from one of our sharpest bettors and we immediately went down to -6.5," says Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag. "We were at 6.5 up until Tuesday and went back to 7 because we were getting hammered with Broncos money."
Stewart says that money was flooding in on the Broncos at that -6.5 number and knowing that sharps were jumping at the Colts +7, his book stayed at Broncos -6.5 (-115) Saturday morning, where it remains. He does, however, acknowledge that the line could move yet again as we approach kickoff.
"I do expect us to get back to Broncos -7 as we get closer to kickoff and all our recreational players will either be looking to add to their winning from the earlier games, or trying to bail out of their losses from the day."
The Broncos own the league's best Over/Under mark at 6-0 and no total seems to high at the moment.
The total opened at 57 and it's been primarily Over money since post.
"As for the total, we opened 57 and we’ve seen about 75 percent of the action on the over and went to 57.5 strictly based on our exposure to the over," Stewart says. "I don’t expect us to see much under action but at 57.5, I seriously doubt we’ll go to 58 and will take our chance needing it under 57.5 points."Comment
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Tale of the tape: Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
Did you hear that the Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are in Indianapolis to face the Colts in Sunday Night Football? You did? Good.
The Broncos (6-0) are putting points on the board like it's going out of style with an average of 44.2 points per game. They'll be tested against a good Indy (4-2) defense that ranks fourth in the league, allowing 16.3 points per game.
Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:
Offense
What more is there to say about the Broncos offense? Manning leads the league with 2,179 yards and 22 touchdown tosses and boasts an arsenal of weapons all over the field in Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas. And those are just the receiving targets. RB Knowshon Moreno had three TD scampers last week and has 373 rushing yards on 4.7 ypc. The offensive unit is exceptionally talented.
Colts QB Andrew Luck was the reason Manning exited Indianapolis and to be fair, he's done a pretty good job with the incredibly large shoes he's had to fill. The Colts average 20 points less than the Broncos on a per game basis, but they bring a balanced passing and ground game to the table each week. The acquisition of RB Trent Richardson from the Cleveland Browns was a celebrated roster move, but the ex-Crimson Tide back is only averaging 3.2 ypc in his four games with the Colts. But the running game has depth as Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Donald Brown and Luck have all ran for 154 yards or more.
Edge: Denver
Defense
The defensive side of the ball is another story for Denver. The Broncos have the league's worst passing defense as the unit has allowed 337.7 yards per game. LB Von Miller returns to the lineup from his six-game suspensions and will certainly help matters, but this Broncos defense can be exposed through the air. They are incredibly effective at stopping the run and Indy's backs will not have an easy task of breaking them down. Denver allows just 69.8 rushing yards per game.
The Colts have a fairly strong defense that boasts the league's co-sack leader, Robert Mathis, who heads into the Sunday nighter with 9.5 sacks. They are very good at stopping the pass as they allow 205.7 passing yards per game, good enough for fifth best in the league. The problem with the Colts is stopping the run. They give up the second-most rushing yards per game at 132 but opposing rushers have only reached pay dirt four times this season and haven't allowed a rushing TD since Week 3.
Edge: Colts
Special Teams
The Broncos have a stellar return game ranking third with 16.8 yards per punt return and third on kickoff returns averaging 30 yards per return. They also excel on special teams defense, leading the league with two blocked punts on the season. Matt Prater has just nine field goals on the season, but when you're offense scores touchdowns at this rate, you don't get too many shots. He is 9-for-9 and is 8-for-8 from 40 yards or greater.
Adam Vinatieri ranks 18th with an 85.7 conversion rate, but both of his misses are from 50 yards and out. The veteran place kicker is 12-of-14 on his attempts and 14-for-14 when tacking on the extra point. The Colts special teams defense allows 21.9 yards per kickoff return and 10.8 yards per punt return. Their return game is rather pedestrian as Colt returners average just 7 yards on punt returns and 253. yards per kickoff return.
Edge: Broncos
Notable Quotable
"He's had a great week in practice. Obviously he has a lot of energy. He has fresh legs, and he's very excited about playing. I think his teammates are excited about watching." - Broncos head coach John Fox on Broncos LB Von Miller
“You’re looking at an offense, you look at the stat sheet and they’re ranked one at just about every category. It’s a challenge. We’re going to put our time in regardless. We just know that the challenge is a great one cause they’ve got a great one coming in here. First-ballot Hall of Famer (Manning) under center and all that stuff. Great wideouts, runners, offensive line. Across the board, it’s going to be a huge challenge.” - Colts defensive coordinator Greg Manusky on preparing for the Broncos potent offense.Comment
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Sunday Night Football betting: Broncos at Colts
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+6, 55.5)
Peyton Manning makes his much-anticipated return to Indianapolis, bringing the undefeated Denver Broncos into town for a prime-time matchup with Andrew Luck and the Colts on Sunday night. The plot was juicy enough: Manning against Luck, the No. 1 overall in 2012 and the reason the Colts decided to jettison the league's only four-time MVP. Indianapolis owner Jim Irsay fanned the flames with his comments that Manning's postseason failures were a reason for his departure.
Although Irsay backtracked from his initial comments, his remarks were criticized by Broncos coach John Fox - "I thought it was a bit of a cheap shot," he said - and former Colts general manager Bill Polian. Manning declined to comment, but his play on the field has Indianapolis bracing for much more than a war of words. Denver is seeking its 18th consecutive regular-season win behind an offense that has produced 265 points - the most in history by any team through the first six games of the season.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE: The Broncos opened -5.5 and are now -6. The total opened at 56.5 and is now up to 57.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (6-0): Manning, who played 14 seasons with the Colts and led the franchise to two Super Bowls (winning one), tops the league with 2,179 yards and 22 touchdowns - the most by any player in the opening six games. He has weapons all over in the field in star wideouts Wes Welker (eight touchdowns), Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, not to mention tight end Julius Thomas (seven TDs) and running back Knowshon Moreno, who ran for three scores last week. Denver's biggest weakness has been its pass defense, but that should receive a boost with the return of linebacker Von Miller (18.5 sacks in 2012) from a six-game suspension.
ABOUT THE COLTS (4-2): Luck and AFC South-leading Indianapolis are coming off their worst performance, managing only three field goals in a 19-9 loss at San Diego as the Chargers held the ball for over 38 minutes. Luck is 15-7 as a starter and has directed nine comebacks in the fourth quarter and overtime, the most by any player in his first 22 games. Running back Trent Richardson has yet to provide the expected impact on the ground game since his acquisition from Cleveland, rushing for only 191 yards in four games, which has put an added burden on a defense that is allowing an average of 16.3 points, fifth in the league.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.
* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Indianapolis.
* Under is 12-4 in Colts last 16 home games.
* Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Manning is completing 74.2 percent of his passes and his passer rating of 128.8 is miles ahead of runner-up Philip Rivers (108.7) of San Diego.
2. Luck is 9-2 at home and 6-0 overall following a loss.
3. The Colts beat the Broncos five straight times with Manning under center, with the averaging victory margin being 14.4 points.Comment
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