10-24-13

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Today's NFL Picks

Carolina at Tampa Bay

The Panthers look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record. Carolina is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-6). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (10/23)

Game 103-104: Carolina at Tampa Bay (8:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.650; Tampa Bay 126.552 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 9; 37 Vegas Line: Carolina by 6; 40 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-6); Under

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NCAA Football Game Picks

Kentucky at Mississippi State

The Wildcats look to take advantage of a Mississippi State team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Thursday games. Kentucky is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+10 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (10/23)

Game 105-106: Kentucky at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 83.828; Mississippi State 90.723 Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 7; 52 Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 10 1/2; 56 Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+10 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: Marshall at Middle Tennessee State (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 83.989; Middle Tennessee State 73.364 Dunkel Line: Marshall by 10 1/2; 53 Vegas Line: Marshall by 8 1/2; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-8 1/2); Under

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Thursday Night Football betting: Panthers at Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 40.5)

Cam Newton has been overshadowed by the highly publicized quarterback class of 2012, but he has the Carolina Panthers at .500 for the first time in his three-year tenure as they prepare to visit the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night. The Panthers have won three of four and a victory Thursday would give them them a winning record, something that hasn't occurred since the end of the 2008 season. Tampa Bay posted a pair of six-point wins over Carolina last season.

An already-bleak season took another turn for the worse for the Buccaneers on Monday when it was revealed that second-year running back Doug Martin suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder in Sunday's 31-23 loss to Atlanta. Martin, who rushed for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns last season as a rookie, will be sidelined indefinitely and could be done for the season. That puts more pressure on rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, who will be making his fourth career start.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Panthers opened at -6 and have been bet down to -5.5. The total has jumped from 38.5 to 40.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s with winds blowing NE at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (0.0) + Tampa Bay (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers +3.5

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-3, 3-3 ATS): Newton has put up huge numbers in the past but they haven't translated into the win column. He has been steely efficient in back-to-back victories over St. Louis and Minnesota, completing 35-of-43 passes for four touchdowns and zero interceptions while posting passer ratings of 136.3 and 143.4, respectively. Carolina's defense has also play a pivotal role in the resurgence, allowing an average of 243 total yards over the past four games and yielding one TD in each of the past two.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-6, 1-5 ATS): Three of Tampa Bay's losses have come by a combined six points, so circumstances are not as dire as the record indicates despite the reported friction between the players and coach Greg Schiano. Although Martin is the focal point of the offense, he has struggled in his second season and been held to 67 rushing yards or fewer in four of the six games. Glennon is developeding a nice rapport with wideout Vincent Jackson, who has 19 receptions for 252 yards and four TDs in the past two games.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Tampa Bay.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams have alternated series sweeps over the past four seasons.

2. Newton has five TD passes and zero interceptions with four rushing scores in his last three versus the Buccaneeers.

3. Tampa Bay churned out 297 rushing yards in the two wins over Carolina last season.

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Tale of the Tape: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers begin life without one of their offensive lynchpins as they tangle with the visiting Carolina Panthers on Thursday night in an NFC South showdown.

The Buccaneers have dropped six consecutive games to start the season and have lost stud running back Doug Martin to a torn labrum. Mike James gets the start in Martin's absence, but he'll have his hands full with a Carolina defense that has stuffed opposing rushers all season.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Buccaneers have scuffled on the offensive end this season, though things may be looking up after rookie quarterback Mike Glennon racked up 256 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's 31-23 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Tampa Bay is still averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, and a rush attack that ranks just 20th in the NFL in yards per game (101.2) will likely struggle further with the downgrade from Martin to James.

Carolina is also having trouble generating offense through the air, posting just 197.3 passing yards per game. The biggest difference between the division rivals is on the ground, where the Panthers rank seventh in the NFL with better than 130 yards per contest while putting up five touchdowns. The likely return of running back Jonathan Stewart in Week 9 from ankle injuries that have sidelined him all season should further bolster the Carolina running game.

Edge: Carolina

Defense

Depite the Buccaneers' early-season struggles, the Tampa Bay run defense remains one of the toughest in the league. Teams are averaging fewer than 89 rushing yards per game against the Bucs, and they are tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the fewest rushing touchdowns against (one). The pass defense has been more porous, allowing the 18th-most yards per game (252) while surrendering 11 touchdowns, tied for 11th-most in the league.

Carolina's charge toward an NFC playoff berth is being built on the strength of its defense. The Panthers have been one of the stingiest teams in the NFL against the pass, limiting opposing teams to 218 yards per game and five total touchdowns - tied with Pittsburgh for the fewest in the league. The run defense is also stout, surrendering the fourth-fewest yards per contest (84.5) and giving up just a pair of scores through the first six weeks.

Edge: Carolina

Special Teams

Tampa Bay has been solid in the return game, averaging the fifth-most yards on kickoffs (27.6) and ranking 10th in punt-return average (10.8). The Bucs have the ninth-best kickoff return average against (22) and are allowing the opposition just seven yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Rian Lindell is just 8-of-10 on field-goal attempts, but connected on all three of his attempts last weekend against the Falcons.

The Panthers have been a below-average return team so far in 2013, ranked 20th in kickoff-return average (22.8) and tied for 24th on punt returns (6.3). The Panthers have surrendered the 11th-most kickoff yards per attempt (23) and are allowing 10.3 yards per punt return, the seventh-highest mark in the league. Kicker Graham Gano hasn't been busy - his nine field-goal attempts are tied for the fewest in the NFL - but he has connected on all of them.

Notable Quotable

"What's most important is I think the guys recognize that every other NFL player watches this game, at least if they're a football fan they do. The Thursday night football game is part of their week. It's a big part of our league. When you get a chance to be the only show in the league, everybody understands that." - Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano on the importance of performing well on the national stage

"We're relevant. We're a young team that has gotten to a point now where we're doing the things that we need to do and showing what we're capable of. It's a great opportunity for this team, for this city, to make a mark. We have to go out and do that." - Carolina head coach Ron Rivera

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Kentucky at Mississippi State: What bettors need to know

Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-10.5, 56)

Mississippi State looks for its fifth straight victory over Kentucky when the Southeastern Conference cross-divisional rivals square off in primetime Thursday. The Bulldogs are after the first five-game winning streak by either team in the series, which has seen the last five meetings decided by an average of eight points. "I know our guys look forward to this game and treat it as a little bit of a rivalry game for us," Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. "… You know it's a team you're playing every year."

The Wildcats have dropped four straight - all against teams that were ranked in the top 25 at the time - and had a week off following a 48-7 trouncing versus No. 1 Alabama on Oct. 12. "I think having a chance to recoup physically and mentally I think should help us going into this game," first-year Kentucky coach Mark Stoops told reporters. "I think our preparation has been very good. I feel like the team is in a good place right now." Mississippi State has alternated losses and wins all season and shoots for its first winning streak after a 21-20 victory over Bowling Green on Oct. 12.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Mississippi State opened as a 9.5-point home favorite and moved to -10.5. The total jumped from 55 points to 56.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 50s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing WNW at 2 mph.

ABOUT KENTUCKY (1-5, 0-3 SEC, 2-4 ATS): The Wildcats expected quarterback Jalen Whitlow to miss at least one game after spraining his left ankle against Alabama, but he returned to practice Monday and could be ready to start. Fellow sophomore Maxwell Smith will get the nod if Whitlow can't play, taking the reins of an offense that has been balanced, but far from explosive. Kentucky has been tough against the pass but allows 213.3 rushing yards per game - 107th among the 123 FBS teams, which might spell trouble against the Bulldogs' strong ground game.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (3-3, 0-2, 3-3 ATS): The Bulldogs have been a bit of a one-man show on offense, with quarterback Dak Prescott leading the team with 457 rushing yards and eight touchdowns to go along with 890 passing yards and three TDs. Prescott splits time with Tyler Russell, who missed time with a concussion but has played the past two games and threw for 248 yards and two TDs in those contests. The defense was torched in a 59-26 loss to LSU on Oct. 5 but has held its own against dangerous offenses in losses to Oklahoma State and Auburn.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Mississippi State.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Mississippi State has rushed for 200 yards or more in five consecutive games for the first time since 2010. The Bulldogs rank 23rd in the nation with 214.3 rushing yards per game.

2. The Wildcats have been bold on fourth down, going for it 13 times and converting nine. The 69.2 percent conversion rate ranks 15th in the nation (eighth among teams with at least 10 attempts).

3. Prescott has topped 100 yards rushing in two straight games and three of the past four and has at least one rushing touchdown in five straight contests.

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Marshall at Middle Tennessee: What bettors need to know

Marshall Thundering Herd at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+8.5, 56.5)

The Marshall Thundering Herd have plenty of momentum following a dramatic come-from-behind win over Florida Atlantic, and get a struggling opponent next as they face the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Floyd Stadium Thursday night. The Thundering Herd rode Justin Haig's last-second 41-yard field goal to a 24-23 triumph over Florida Atlantic on Oct. 12. The Blue Raiders have lost three in a row and were thumped 34-7 at North Texas in their last game.

The Middle Tennessee offense has scuffled mightily since a 42-35 overtime win over Florida Atlantic, scoring just 34 points during its skid. That's a bad omen for a Blue Raiders team facing off against a Marshall defense that ranks 14th in the nation in points against per game (18.8). It's the first-ever meeting between the teams in Murfeesboro, and the first time they've faced off since Marshall prevailed 49-14 back on Nov. 26, 1994.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1

LINE: Marshall has held steady as an 8.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 56.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow diagonally out of the northwest at 5 mph.

ABOUT MARSHALL (4-2, 2-0 Conference USA, 4-2 ATS): Marshall is wrapping up a bizarre scheduling quirk that has it playing just its third game in a 33-day stretch Thursday - with a 34-10 win over UTSA on Oct. 5 and the victory over Owls a week later representing its only game action since Sept. 21. The players admit it's good to have everyone rested but they're itching to hit the field. "Sometimes in practice, you'd see a bunch of (non-contact jerseys)," center Chris Jasperse told the Charleston Gazette. "Now, hey, let's go play. It's good for us to have everybody out there, ready to go."

ABOUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (3-4, 1-2, 2-5 ATS): The Blue Raiders know that the Marshall offense revolves around standout quarterback Rakeem Cato, who has looked ordinary since a five-touchdown outburst in Marshall's season opener but is still one of the conference's top QBs. "He is a very dynamic player," Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill told the team's official website. "He can make every throw and he's got a great arm. He's just a phenomenal player." The Blue Raider defense has been impressive, ranking second in the nation with 20 takeaways.

TRENDS

* Marshall is 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 road games against teams with losing home records.
* Middle Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 11-4 in the Thundering Herd's previous 15 conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in the Blue Raiders' last six games against teams with winning records.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Marshall has won both head-to-head meetings.

2. Cato has thrown four touchdown passes and four interceptions in three road games so far in 2013.

3. Senior QB Logan Kilgore is expected to get the start for Middle Tennessee despite being replaced by Austin Grammer against North Texas.

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LA Syndicate
Panthers/Bucs Over 40

Chicago Syndicate
Mississippi State -9.5 (-125)

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Metric

Kentucky

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Sharks won eight of their first nine games. Boston won six of first eight.
-- Canucks won four of their last six road games.
-- Anaheim won seven of its last eight games.
-- Blackhawks won five of their last six games. Tampa Bay won five of last seven.
-- Predators won four of their last six games.
-- Carolina won its last three road games, scoring 10 goals.
-- Washington won three of its last four games. Edmonton won last two games, after losing seven of its first eight.
-- Coyotes/Kings both won five of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Devils lost eight of their first nine games.
-- Rangers lost four of their last five games. Flyers lost last four games, outscored 14-6.
-- Canadiens lost last two games, are 2-3 at home this season.
-- Winnipeg lost six of its last eight games.
-- Minnesota lost three of last four games overall, but won three in row at home.
-- Dallas Stars lost four of their last five games. Calgary lost three of last four.

Series records
-- Sharks won four of last five games against Boston.
-- Devils lost their last four games against Vancouver, scoring five goals.
-- Rangers won 11 of last 13 games with Philadelphia.
-- Ducks won last five games with Montreal, scoring 22 goals.
-- Lightning won last four games vs Chicago, with three wins in OT.
-- Predators won four of last five games with Winnipeg.
-- Hurricanes won last four games with Minnesota.
-- Flames won three of last four games with Dallas.
-- Oilers lost three of their last four games with Washington.
-- Kings won 12 of their last 17 games with Phoenix.

Totals
-- Three of last four San Jose games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Vamcouver games.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in Philly games this season.
-- Six of last eight Montreal games stayed under the total.
-- Last eight Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Nashville games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Edmonton games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Phoenix games went over the total.

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MLB

Rookie Wacha won his last four starts, allowing nine hits, one run in 29.2 IP; three of those four games stayed under the total.

Lackey is 3-1, 3.00 in his last four starts; he has a 3.82 ERA in last five starts at Fenway Park. He is 5-4, 3.10 in 14 career postseason starts.

Cardinals are 7-5 in playoffs, 2-4 on road. Under is 5-4 in their last nine games. Cardinals are 5-6 playing in AL ballparks this year- those games had the DH (over 7-4).

Red Sox won five of their last six games, are 8-3 in playoffs, scoring total of seven runs in the losses. Over is 11-3-2 in their last sixteen games.

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Today's MLB Picks

St. Louis at Boston

The Cardinals look to bounce back from last night's 8-1 loss in the opener and build on their 5-0 record in Michael Wacha's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. St. Louis is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Boston (8:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 17.246; Boston (Lackey) 16.444 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+105); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

San Jose at Boston

The Sharks look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games in Boston. San Jose is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Sharks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24 Time Posted 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: San Jose at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.932; Boston 12.121 Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+100); Over

Game 53-54: Vancouver at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.089; New Jersey 10.413 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-125); 5 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-125); Under

Game 55-56: NY Rangers at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.440; Philadelphia 9.901 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 57-58: Anaheim at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.725; Montreal 11.149 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-130); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+110); Over

Game 59-60: Chicago at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.447; Tampa Bay 10.863 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-135); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-135); Under

Game 61-62: Winnipeg at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.697; Nashville 10.755 Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-140); 5 Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+120); Over

Game 63-64: Carolina at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.313; Minnesota 11.265 Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-165); 5 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+145); Over

Game 65-66: Calgary at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.328; Dallas 11.857 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-175); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-175); Under

Game 67-68: Washington at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.648; Edmonton 11.382 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-125); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-125); Under

Game 69-70: Phoenix at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.122; Los Angeles 11.338 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-155); 5 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+135); Over

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Diamond Dog Sports

Bucs
Middle Tenn State

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Cardinals at Red Sox: What bettors need to know

St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox (-125, 7)

Boston leads series 1-0.

The St. Louis Cardinals displayed some nerves in the field during the first game of the World Series and were bitten by errors in a loss. The Cardinals will look to clean up those mistakes when they visit the Boston Red Sox for Game 2 on Thursday. The Red Sox are riding a nine-game World Series winning streak and showed no jitters while jumping on top early in Game 1.

Mike Napoli followed an error with a three-run double in the first inning Wednesday and Boston got the aid of another error in a two-run second to jump in front of St. Louis. One of the best plays the Cardinals did make in the early innings came from Carlos Beltran, who reached into the bullpen in right field to rob David Ortiz of a grand slam. Beltran suffered a right rib contusion on that catch and was forced to leave the game, though, leaving his status in doubt for Game 2.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 40s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing west at 9 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (3-0, 0.43 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH John Lackey (2-0, 3.00)

Wacha was the NLCS MVP after tossing 13 2/3 scoreless innings over two starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 22-year-old rookie allowed a total of one run on eight hits over 21 innings this postseason while striking out 22 and issuing four walks. Wacha made both NLCS starts at home and posted a 4.34 ERA in five games - three starts - on the road during the regular season while going 3-2.

Lackey was moved up to the No. 2 spot for the World Series after dominating the Detroit Tigers through 6 2/3 scoreless innings in the ALCS. The veteran struck out eight and did not walk a batter in that turn, outdueling Justin Verlander in a 1-0 triumph. Lackey last pitched in the World Series as a rookie for the Los Angeles Angels in 2002, when he went 1-0 with a 4.38 ERA in three games - two starts.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Boston.
* Cardinals are 2-7 in their last nine playoff road games.
* Red Sox are 9-0 in their last 9 World Series games.
* Red Sox are 6-1 in Lackey's last seven home starts.
* Cardinals are 4-0 in Wacha's last four starts.

UMP TRENDS - Mark Wegner:

* Under is 4-0-1 in Wegner's last five games behind home plate.
* Under is 25-12 in Wegner's last 37 interleague games behind home plate.
* Road team is 5-2 in Wegner's last 7 games behind home plate.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Beltran was taken for X-rays after leaving Game 1. Jon Jay replaced him in the field.

2. Ortiz hit a two-run homer Wednesday, giving him four in 11 playoff games this season.

3. St. Louis SS Pete Kozma went 0-for-3 and committed two errors in Game 1.