10-27-13

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MLB

Buchholz is 1-1, 4.85 in his last five starts, over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Boston won 16 of his 19 starts this season, scoring eight runs in the three losses. This is his first start in eight days.

Lynn hasn't pitched in 12 days; he is 3-1, 2.91 in his last six starts. Since June 26, Cardinals are 8-12 when Lynn starts (3-1 in last four).

Boston is 5-3 in its last eight games, but lost last two because of errant throws to third base; they're 3-3 on road in playoffs.

St Louis won eight of last 11 games; they've allowed 13 runs in their nine postseason wins, 29 in five losses. Cardinals are 13-1 in their last 14 games at home- four of their last five games went over the total.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Sharks won nine of their first eleven games.
-- Tampa Bay won four of its last five games.
-- Columbus won last three games, outscoring foes 12-4. Anaheim won eight of its last ten.
-- Avalanche won nine of their first ten games.
-- Los Angeles won six of its last eight games.

Cold teams
-- Senators lost their last two home games, 3-1/2-1.
-- Panthers lost five of their last six games.
-- Jets lost three of their last four games.
-- Edmonton lost seven of its last nine games.

Series records
-- Sharks won five of last six games with Ottawa.
-- Lightning won eight of last ten games with Florida.
-- Ducks are 6-4 in their last ten visits to Columbus.
-- Jets won five of last seven games with Colorado.
-- Kings won nine of last eleven games with Edmonton.

Totals
-- Last three San Jose games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 10-4 in last fourteen Florida-Tampa Bay games.
-- Five of last seven Anaheim games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Winnipeg games.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine LA-Edmonton games.

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Hank Gola
Upset Special = Falcons + 2 1/2

Playbook Play = Giants + 5 1/2
Giants win 28-24

Playbook Play Cinny -6 (26-17)

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MTI's 5* Top Play Of The Day


Your Selection

5-Star NY Giants +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA

The Giants have been steadily improving over the past few weeks and they finally broke through last Monday with a solid win and cover. The Giants have been a streaky team for some time now and this has been a great spot for them. NY is a remarkable 23-0 ATS (+9.0 ppg) when their ATS margin increased in each of their past two games, as long as they were not a FG+ favorite in both games. The SDQL text is:
team=Giants and A and ppp:ats margin-3 or pp:line>-3) and season>=1994

In addition, the Giants are 21-0 ATS since 2006 on the road off a win in which Manning through fewer than two interceptions and did not have a rush for double-digit yards. See for yourself with this SDQL text:

A and p:W and Giants:Eli Manning:longest rush<10 and Giants:Eli Manning:interceptions thrown<2 and season>=2006

Last week against the Vikings the Giants' defense did not allow a point and the offense held the ball for 36:22. A fresh and motivated Giants' defense is not what the Eagles' struggling offense needs right now.

NY is 11-0 ATS on the road after a win as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:

team=Giants and A and p:WF and p:TOP - tA(p:TOP) > 180 and date>=20051101

In their two qualifying games from last season, the Giants won 36-7 and 26-3 and they were the dog in both games. Wow.

Finally, the Giants are 11-0 ATS as a dog when they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average in their previous game, covering by an average of 15.7 ppg. See for yourself with this SDQL text:

team=Giants and D and tA(pooints) - pooints>=10 and NB and season>=2002

Turning our attention to the Eagles, we find that they are 0-12 ATS at home after a loss and 0-10 ATS (-13.3 ppg) following a game where they threw more than 40 passes. The SDQL for the latter of these two is:

team = Eagles and passes>40 and date>=20110101

The last nail in the coffin for the Eagles is the fact that they are 0-7 ATS since the start of the 2009 season off of any game in which DeSean Jackson did not have a 20-plus yard reception. The SDQL here is:

team=Eagles and H and EagleseSean Jackson:longest reception<20 and season>=2009

Note that the Eagles have fallen short of the linesmakers' expectations by an average of 13.2 ppg.

The Giants have been in just this spot many times before. They have dominated. The Eagles are in a terrible spot. This is a rare case of a 6-point dog that is better than 50% to win.

MTi's FORECAST: NY Giants 27 PHILADELPHIA 3

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Cappers Access

Lions -3
Jets +5
Vikings +8

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Sunday

Avalanche -195/Kings -220 Parlay

Tampa Bay NHL -120

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Today's NHL Picks

Anaheim at Columbus

The Ducks look to follow up their 2-1 win over Ottawa on Friday and build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Anaheim is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-105). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 27 Time Posted 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: San Jose at Ottawa (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.979; Ottawa 12.878 Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 3-4: Tampa Bay at Florida (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 12.585; Florida 10.019 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under

Game 5-6: Anaheim at Columbus (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.160; Columbus 11.003 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-115); 5 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-105); Over

Game 7-8: Winnipeg at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.067; Colorado 12.769 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-200); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-200); Under

Game 9-10: Edmonton at Los Angeles (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.536; Los Angeles 11.026 Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-220); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+180); Over

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ROBERT FERRINGO

SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS

5-Unit Play. Take #228 Arizona (-2.5) over Atlanta (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
Note: This is our NFL Game of the Week.
I have a huge commitment on Arizona to go 'over' 5.5 wins this year. I was the only analyst in the country looking at this team and saying that I felt they were better than people realized. And I still feel that way. They have a chance to get to .500 in this game and quietly put themselves in the playoff hunt down the stretch. This is a really veteran Arizona team. They are focused and motivated and I think they have the chance to absolutely take the Falcons to the woodshed here.

Look at who the Cardinals have played the last three weeks: Carolina, San Francisco and Seattle. Those are three of the five best defenses in football and Arizona managed to score over 20 points against each of them. They were also forced to play San Fran and Seattle in the span of five days, which is a task that few teams in the NFL would make it through. So Arizona is undervalued right now. They can be spry at home and they had extra prep time following their Thursday night game against Seattle. The Cardinals have the edge on defense, the skill positions, the extra rest, the home field, and the fact that the home team has won six straight in this series going back to 2004. Arizona has revenge for a 23-19 loss last year. That game was in Atlanta and the Falcons were a much, much, much better team facing a significantly worse Arizona squad.

Atlanta is kind of a train wreck right now. Their offensive line is terrible. They are without their two stud receivers, with whom so much of the Falcons offensive identity is tied up in. They are starting two undrafted free agents at linebacker. They are starting two rookie corners. The Falcons have unconvincing wins over the Rams and the Bucs this year, and that's it. The Falcons have also played four of their last five games at home. This is their first true road trip, as their only other road game was a short trip down to Miami. Atlanta has lost both of its road games this year - at Miami and at New Orleans - and this is a hostile, unfamiliar environment for them. Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez can only do so much. But this Falcons roster just isn't very good and I think they are heading toward a 5-11 season.

The public is all over Atlanta here. Over two-thirds of the betting is down on the Falcons. But the general public isn't seeing the obvious here: Arizona is a much better team right now. Yes, Atlanta has a massive advantage at the quarterback position. But I think Carson Palmer will find the sledding much easier this week now that he's not only not facing one of the best defenses in football, he's facing one of the weaker units around. I think Arizona wins this one by double-digits and I can see this game being 34-20.

2-Unit Play. Take #222 Cincinnati (-6.5) over N.Y. Jets (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
Guess what: I'm still not buying the Jets. I don't think that the Jets are any good at all. And they are primed for a massive letdown this week after earning an emotional overtime win against the rival Patriots. That game is the twice annual Super Bowl for Rex Ryan and the Jets. They won last week but they had a ton of advantages setting themselves up for that one. The Patriots were banged up, coming off a thrilling win over the Saints at home, facing a division rival with revenge. But now that the Jets got that out of their system I think they are going to get trucked, just like they did after they beat Buffalo and then traveled to Tennessee (they lost 38-13). Or like they did after their Monday Night Football win against the Falcons (they lost 19-6 to the Steelers the next week). This is what the Bengals do. They beat bad teams. They have dominated mediocre and lower tier teams the past three years. They have a nice home field edge and they are on a roll after three straight wins. The Bengals should smother the Jets here and I see a game played somewhere in the 23-10 range.

2-Unit Play. Take #212 Detroit (-3) over Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
The Lions are such losers. They really, really are. But I have to ask myself: why in God's name are they favored here? Is it that they continue to be one of the most overrated teams in football, with mindless analysts lauding their "talent" each week? Or could it be the fact that Dallas is due to get ambushed? I will bet on the latter. And if the books move this spread off the 3.0 to 3.5 then that is a major red flag in this situation. Three of Dallas' wins this year have come against the NFC Each, which is absolutely pathetic. So until they start beating some other real teams I'm only going to get so high on them. The Cowboys are also 6-1 ATS this season. That's not going to last since Dallas is a massively public team. Even in this game over 60 percent of the bets are coming down on the Cowboys with the points. But I feel like the Lions are going to bounce back from their tough loss to Cincinnati last week. They outgained the Bengals and lost a tight, hard-fought game. The Cowboys have lost two of their three road games, including laying an egg at San Diego. I think Detroit will have a big home field edge with a rowdy crowd and I think they can push the Cowboys around a bit. This is a bigger game for Detroit than it is Dallas and I think that the Lions find a way to get the job done here.

2-Unit Play. Take #226 Denver (-12) over Washington (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)
This is a terrible, square play. I know it. But the fact is that over my eight years as a handicapper I have noticed a undeniable trend. Any time I lose a huge play on a team they cover the spread their next time out about 80 percent of the time. This is true in all sports. So I'm willing to jump in with Denver just on spec. Washington's secondary doesn't stand a chance against Denver's offense. And even though I think that Washington will score some points and move the ball I still don't think that RGIII has looked sharp at any point this season. Again, I admit that this is not a really strong play. But I don't see Denver losing this game. If they win I think they can cover. And I will look for history to repeat itself as the Broncos came up small last week and they will come up big this time around.

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #218 New Orleans (-4) over Buffalo (1 p.m.) AND Take #229 Green Bay (-2) over Minnesota (8:30 p.m.)

This Week's Totals

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 45.5 - Atlanta at Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 58.0 - Washington at Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.5 - Pittsburgh at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.5 - San Francisco at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.0 - Green Bay at Minnesota (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 27)

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Point spread pros

NFL
Dallas +3
CINCINNATI -6.5
Atlanta +2.5

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Patriots look to retain dominance of Dolphins on Sunday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: New England -6.5

Slumping AFC East foes square off Sunday when the Dolphins visit the Patriots.

Miami has dropped three straight games (SU and ATS), but the past two have come by a combined five points. New England has lost two of three, with those two defeats coming by 10 total points. These slides can both be attributed heavily to poor quarterback play over the past three weeks with Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill completing just 55% of his passes with 5 INT, while Pats QB Tom Brady has a 51% completion rate, 5.5 YPA, 1 TD, 3 INT and 13 sacks taken. But Brady has thrown for 283 YPG, 11 TD and 2 INT during a six-game SU win streak (4-1-1 ATS) over Miami. He might also get his top wide receiver back with Danny Amendola, who missed last Sunday's overtime loss to the Jets with a concussion, but has been practicing all week and expects to play against Miami. Although the Dolphins are in a free-fall, underdogs with a winning percentage between 45% and 55% after being beaten by the spread by 28+ points in their previous three games are 31-9 ATS (78%) over the past 10 seasons. However, New England is 11-2 ATS (85%) off a division game since the start of 2011, winning these games by an average score of 35 to 15.

Miami QB Ryan Tannehill hasn't been great lately, but he still tossed three touchdowns in last week's 23-21 loss to the Bills. However, his Dolphins managed just 16 total points in getting swept by the Patriots last year, as Tannehill completed only 51.6% of his passes for 421 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. But while Miami's air attack has been average this season (235 passing YPG, 16th in NFL), its ground game has been dreadful with just 78 rushing YPG (25th in league). Although top RB Lamar Miller has a respectable 254 yards on 59 carries (4.3 YPC), backup RB Daniel Thomas continues to drag this offense down with a mere 3.4 yards per carry on his 39 attempts. A big reason why the Dolphins have just 313 total YPG this season (6th-worst in NFL) is because they have the fourth-worst time of possession (27:27), but have done a great job on capitalizing on their opportunities with a 72.2% red-zone efficiency (2nd in the NFL. Defensively, Miami has really done a solid job against the run by holding teams to 103 YPG on 3.8 YPC, but the club has surrendered 269 passing YPG (25th in NFL) and has been on the field for 32:32 (5th-most in league). During their six-game losing skid to the Patriots, the Dolphins have forced a total of just three turnovers while committing 12 miscues. Top pass-rushing DE Cameron Wake played limited snaps last week in his return from a knee injury, but he expects to play his typical workload on Sunday. Wake has 4.5 sacks during his team's six-game losing skid to the Patriots.

Patriots QB Tom Brady might finally have his full complement of receivers to use this week if WR Danny Amendola (concussion) is cleared to play. Amendola has logged just one full game all year, but has still been targeted 27 times, resulting in 16 catches. Speaking of targets, Brady wasted no time in getting star TE Rob Gronkowski back in the flow of things with 17 targets, but due to some poor passes, Gronkowski pulled in just eight of those attempts, but still managed 114 yards. He has also fared quite well against the Dolphins with 21 catches for 308 yards and 3 TD in his past four meetings. The Patriots are averaging just 5.5 yards per pass attempt (3rd-worst in NFL), and have been subpar in the red zone as well with a 45.8% conversion rate (26th in NFL), two areas in which a healthy Gronkowski should provide a big boost in. Having a slightly above-average ground game (116 rushing YPG, 13th in NFL) hasn't helped much, but top RB Stevan Ridley has run very well in two games since returning from injury with 146 yards on 31 carries (4.7 YPC) and three touchdowns. The Patriots' defense hopes that top CB Aqib Talib, who missed last week's game with a hip injury, can return to action, but New England's run defense is a bigger concern without LB Jerod Mayo (pectoral) and DTs Vince Wilfork (Achilles) and Tommy Kelly (knee). After allowing the Jets to keep the ball for 46:13 and gain 177 yards on 52 carries, the Patriots now rank second-to-last in the NFL in run defense (127 YPG) and seventh-worst in time of possession (31:36). One area this defense has thrived in has been forcing turnovers with 13 takeaways in seven games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnson tries to dominate at Martinsville yet again
by Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series

Goody's Headache Relief Shot 500 Powered by Kroger

Sunday, October 27 – 1:30 p.m. EDT
Martinsville Speedway – Martinsville, VA
The NASCAR circuit moves to Virginia on Sunday afternoon to the slowest track on the circuit, Martinsville Speedway. The Goody's Headache Relief Shot 500 Powered by Kroger will be the fourth-to-last race in the Chase for the Cup. This oval-shaped short track is just 0.526 miles long with 12-degree banking on the turns, and flat equidistant straights (800 feet, or 0.15 miles, each). This track hasn’t seen many winners in the past decade, as Jimmie Johnson (8 wins), Denny Hamlin (4 wins) and Jeff Gordon (4 wins) have won 16 of the past 21 races at Martinsville. Johnson has won the past two races at this track, both last fall and in April.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson 9-to-5
Jeff Gordon 6-to-1
Kyle Busch 7-to-1
Matt Kenseth 8-to-1
Kasey Kahne 10-to-1
Clint Bowyer 12-to-1
Kevin Harvick 12-to-1
Denny Hamlin 12-to-1
Brad Keselowski 12-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 18-to-1
Ryan Newman 25-to-1
Greg Biffle 30-to-1
Joey Logano 30-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 30-to-1
Carl Edwards 30-to-1
Kurt Busch 30-to-1
Jamie McMurray 50-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
Mark Martin 100-to-1
Jeff Burton 100-to-1
Juan Montoya 100-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 100-to-1
Danica Patrick 100-to-1
Kyle Larson 100-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
Elliott Sadler 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18/1) - Junior has been on a roll recently with the third-most driver points over the past four races as he's finished 2nd, 8th, 15th and 2nd again last week at Talladega. He is also ninth in driver points over the past four starts in Martinsville, highlighted by finishes of 7th and 3rd. Earnhardt is usually near the front of the pack on short tracks with a 12.9 average finish, four wins, 26 top-5's and 40 top-10's in his 84 short-track races. At 18-to-1, he is our pick to win Sunday's race.

Jimmie Johnson (9/5) - There is no good reason to ignore Johnson this week. Sure the odds are miniscule, but his track record in Martinsville is just silly: 23 starts, 8 wins, 16 top-5's (70%) and 20 top-10's (87%). He has finished no worse than 12th in 22 straight Martinsville races and has led for more than 60 laps in each of his past five starts at this track averaging 155.2 laps led per race over this stretch. He hasn't been too shabby this season either with five wins and 13 top-5's to put him at the top of the Chase for the Cup standings. A small wager is certainly warranted here.

Ryan Newman (25/1) - Only six drivers have won at Martinsville since 2005 and Newman is one of them, taking home the checkered flag in the spring of 2012. That was one of seven career top-5's at this track, where he's also won three poles. Newman has also raced extremely well late in the season with six top-10's in his past eight starts, including a 3rd-place showing at the last short-track race in Richmond. At 25-to-1, Newman represents the best value on the board.

Clint Bowyer (12/1) - Bowyer is always a threat on the short track, finishing as the runner-up both at Richmond and at this Martinsville track this season. He also placed 5th in this race last fall after leading for 154 laps, giving him nine top-10's in the past 12 starts at this Virginia venue, including three in a row. That also boosts his career total on short tracks to 11 top-5's in 47 starts. The odds aren't too favorable, but Bowyer is still worth dropping a unit on for Sunday's race.

Jamie McMurray (50/1) - The longshot for Sunday's race has to be McMurray, who earned his first win of the season last week at Talladega. This was his third top-5 showing in his past seven starts, which includes finishing fourth at the most recent short-track race at Richmond. McMurray also finished seventh at this Martinsville track in the spring, giving him 11 top-10's in 21 career starts at this venue. Considering he went off at 20-to-1 last week, McMurray is an even wiser wager this week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WinningAngleSports

NFL
San Francisco -16 over Jacksonville
New Orleans -10.5 over Buffalo
Denver -12.5 over Washington
Green Bay -9.5 over Minnesota
MLB
Boston +110 over St. Louis (TOP PLAY)

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Marc Lawrence

NFL 3-Unit Plays

Browns
Giants
Vikings
Atlanta

1-Unit
Redskins

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The Gold Medal Club NFL Selections 27/10/2013
#222 Cincinnati -5
#226 Denver -11
#230 Minnesota +9.5

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NFLBettingPicks / Kevin

2 UNIT = New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals - JETS +7 (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
The Jets are getting little respect here heading to Cincinnati with a 4-3 record, but that is possibly because they are just 1-2 on the road and the Bengals who are 5-2 overall are 3-0 at home. New York is coming off a win vs New England, and they've alternated wins and losses since opening up the year with a victory against Tampa Bay. They are 5-2 against the spread this year, including 2-1 ATS on the road with a 3 point loss in New England and a road victory against Atlanta as 10 point underdogs. The Bengals have won three straight, including a last second win in Detroit last week. Of their 5 wins only one was by more than 7 points, and that was a 10 point victory against a struggling Pittsburgh team in Week 2. The Jets have been impressive on defense, ranking 4th in the NFL giving up just 302 yards per game although 23.1 papg. Offensively the Jets rank just behind the Bengals at 15th in the league, and are scoring 19.1 ppg. Jets Rookie QB Geno Smith seems to be getting better with each start, as he's currently sitting with a 74.3 QB Rating. Getting 7 points with one of the league's best defenses and a team that has proved they can play well on the road is good for 2 units for me.