11-16-13

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Factsman Saturday: Duke +3

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...

NCAAF

The top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide are giving away around 24 points to host Mississippi State this weekend and they could be up by that much at halftime.

Standout quarterback A.J. McCarron faces a Bulldogs defense that has been torched for 144 points in its last three games against nationally ranked teams. That includes a systematic 59-26 dismantling at the hands of visiting Louisiana State back on Oct. 5, a game that saw the Tigers rack up 563 yards of total offense.

Those same Tigers managed just 284 yards in a 38-17 loss to the Tide last week.

Forget game-planning how the Bulldogs will find a way to stop McCarron and Co., and consider how Mississippi State will muster the necessary offense against an Alabama roster allowing fewer than 11 points per game.

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NCAAF betting: Big Ten teams closing in on win totals

The college football season is in the homestretch, so what better opportunity to look back at season win totals and check out which teams are on the cusp and still have a legit shot of surpassing those totals?

Here is a look at three bubble teams in the Big Ten that have a chance, but could have season win bettors sweating out the last few weeks.

For your reference, here is a look at season win totals from 5dimes.eu.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2)

Nebraska was tabbed with a 9.5 season win total and, to be quite frank, it isn't looking good. But there's a slim chance for bettors who took the Over. Everything rides on the upcoming tilt with Michigan State on Nov. 16. The Spartans lead the Legends Division with an 8-1 record and have gotten stronger since losing to Notre Dame. Should the Huskers escape with a victory, they'll close the season with some winnable matchups at Penn State and versus Iowa.

Wisconsin Badgers (7-2)

Wisconsin has lost twice, but by a combined nine points. The Badgers have three games remaining and need to win two of those to cash in for bettors who took the Over 8.5 wins. It's certainly feasible, with a winnable game at home against Indiana on Nov. 16 adding to bettors' hopes. The season will close a little bit on the tougher side, with a game at Minnesota the following week and a season finale at home to Penn State.

Indiana Hoosiers (4-5)

The high-scoring Hoosiers are all about points - both scoring them, and giving them up. Books had a season win total of 5.5 and a three-game losing was a little unsettling to bettors who took the Over. The Hoosiers snapped that, however, with a win versus Illinois this past weekend. Three games remain on the schedule for the Hoosiers with a winnable game to close the season against Purdue. Before that, however, are away games at Wisconsin and Ohio State, which don't look promising.

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Steve Fezzik | CFB Total pick378 Illinois / 377 Ohio St. Over 66.5 Bookmaker.com
single dime free play

Analysis:
We should get some serious steam OVER here.

Illinois will get some points, but the Buckeyes may not punt all game.......desperate to stay ahead of the surging Baylor team in the polls, look for them to do everything possible to put up 50 points in this game!

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Brian Edwards
South Carolina

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Inside the Stats:

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. Here are this week’s findings…

As The Noose Tightens

November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race. College Football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Basketball tip off new campaigns. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value aplenty abounds.

Our focus in the world of College Football begins to center around postseason bowl games during turkey month. In particular, we like to zero in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.

This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Ten on out are 99-34-1 SU and 57-67-2 ATS. Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season nearly one-third of the time. A warning signal has been sounded for Alabama and Ohio State this week.

Pair them up against an under the radar opponent who won 8 or fewer games last season and watch them immediately play down to the level of the opposition as they dip to 6-21 ATS. Bring these same guys in off a win of 20 or more points and they have a difficult time getting their head through the door, going just 3-19 ATS.

Both the Crimson Tide and the Buckeyes look to meet their financial maker this week.

Down The Stretch

Its stretch-run time in college football and with it a list of teams that have been either moneymakers or money breakers at this stage of the season.

From my powerful database, here is how various teams have fared of late from Game Ten out during the regular season heading in to this year. As usual, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) with a minimum five occurrences.

Best Dogs: Arizona 11-1, Boston College 7-1, Memphis 7-1, San Jose State 6-0, Virginia Tech 6-1 and West Virginia 9-1.

Worst Dogs: Air Force 0-8, Michigan 0-5-1, Middle Tennessee State 1-9, Oklahoma State 1-10-1 and Texas Tech 1-5.

Best Favorites: Arkansas 7-0, Arkansas State 5-0, Baylor 5-0, Kansas 6-1, Middle Tennessee State 9-1, Oregon State 5-1, Troy 7-0 and UCLA 5-1.

Worst Favorites: Arizona 1-11, Boise State 0-8, Florida State 1-6, Navy 0-5, Louisville 1-5, Oklahoma 1-5, UAB 1-5 and Utah 0-5.

Note: see our ‘Stat Of The Week’ below for the crème de la crème of this study.

Pennzoil Plays

Fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games has proven to be a long-term winning investment.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 17-19 ATS overall this season, including 12-13 in CFB and 5-6 in the NFL.

According to our Midweek Alert football newsletter this week’s plays would be against Central Michigan, Colorado, Kent State and West Virginia on the college gridiron, along with Atlanta in the NFL.

Overwhelming

As we alluded to here last week, our NFL Totals Tipsheet reports OVER players have been taking down the cash in non-conference games this season.

After yet another unassailable 4-0 performance last week, non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 35-11 OVER this season, including a bookie busting 11-0 the last three weeks.

This week’s potential non-conference OVERS look to be: Lions vs. Steelers, Ravens vs. Bears, Cardinals vs. Jaguars and Patriots vs. Panthers.

Stat Of The Week

The underdog in Arizona Wildcats football games is 22-2 ATS from Game Ten out during the regular season.

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Phil Steele Inside the Pressbox Best Bets:

Houston
Virginia Tech
Texas
Ohio State
Nevada (Upset of Week)

Colorado St vs New Mexico - High scoring POW

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Dr. Bob WISCONSIN
SMU
Rutgers
Kansas State

USC
SJSU
Georgia State

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Hondo

Ohio st
Cinny
Fla St
Auburn
Ok St
Neb
Duke
Oregon
Baylor
S Carl
Bama
USC
Arizona st

Best bets 18-14
Clemson
Cinny
Auburn

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Mighty Quinn

Rutgers
Ohio St
Fla St
Georgia
Mich St
Oregon
Baylor
Bama
Stanford

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Stephen Nover | CFB SideFree pick335 UCF -16.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 336 Temple
Single Dime Free Play

Analysis:
Temple is 1-8. The Owls, to their credit, have played hard losing two tough road games in a row falling to SMU 59-49 and to Rutgers 23-20 the past two weeks as double-digit 'dogs.

I don't see the Owls having anything left in the tank. Central Florida is vastly superior on both sides of the ball and is in a dogfight with three other teams for first place in the American Athletic College conference. So the Knights won't be taking Temple lightly.

Central Florida ranks 12th in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 18.6. The Knights have a very good quarterback in Blake Bortles, who is completing 68 percent of his passes with a 15-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Bortles should fare well against the Owls, who rank 121st in pass defense. Temple has surrendered at least 300 yards through the air in seven of its nine games.

Temple is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games and starts a true freshman at quarterback, P.J. Walker, who isn't nearly as accurate as Bortles.

I believe this is a kill spot for Central Florida and the Knights are playable now that the line has gone below 17.

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Rocketman Sports Handicapper Selection
Date: 11/16/2013
Rocketman Sports has a 3* CFB Winner for Saturday! Rocketman is 9-1 90% last 4 weeks with all CFB picks including a 49-0 BLOWOUT win with Bowling Green this week. Rocketman has now hit 61% this year in CFB! Join the Rocketman for his only CFB pick on Saturday which goes EARLY! Win BIG again! 11/15/2013

Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units!

CFB

NC State @ Boston College 12:30 PM EST
Play On: 3* (#330) Boston College -7

The NC State Wolfpack travel to Boston College to take on the Eagles on Saturday afternoon. NC State is 3-6 SU on the season while Boston College is now 5-4 SU this year. NC State is 0-3 SU on the road this year where they are scoring only 16.7 points per game while allowing 38.3 points per game. Boston College is a solid 4-1 SU at home this year where they are scoring 32.8 points per game. Boston College is 4-0 SU and ATS at home vs NC State since 1992. NC State is 2-8-1 ATS last 11 road games. NC State is 0-6 ATS last 6 games on artificial turf. Boston College is 5-0 ATS last 5 games after an ATS loss. Home team i

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Fargo ENFORCER NCAAF Georgia

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Aaron's Analysis

san diego st
kansas st
auburn

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King Creole | CFB Side pick323 Houston 17.0 (-110) Hilton vs 324 Louisville
Analysis:
7:00pm ET (4:00pm PT) / #323 / Houston Cougars @ Louisville Cardinals
2** Play on: HOUSTON COUGARS plus the points
*optimum line: +17 or more

The host Cardinals have been dropped all the way down to #19 in the current AP poll, despite a 8-1 SU record on the year (right behind THREE-loss LSU). Ya think their 'cake' schedule has something to so with that? Louisville has played the #116 toughest schedule so far in College Football, and that's not sayin' much with 125 TOTAL teams in the mix. They do not have ONE signature win on the season. Their victims: Ohio U... Kentucky... Florida-Intl... Temple... Rutgers... South Florida... and Connecticut. Teams with a combined 17-43 SU record. No wonder their stats are padded!

The Cardinal team has not been a very reliable BIG favorite over the years. LOUISVILLE has gone 3-10-1 ATS as conference favs of -11 > pts since the 2005 season. That includes 2-9 ATS when playing off a SU win... and a PERFECT 0-4 ATS already THIS season (ATS losses vs Temple / Rutgers / C Florida / Connecticut). The ONLY team that Louisville has faced this season with a strong passing game like Houston was Central Florida. And they lost that game OUTRIGHT as double-digit favorites.

Houston has exceeded oddsmakers expectations BIG-TIME in 2013. Their overall 8-1 ATS record is 2nd BEST in all of college football (behind Wisconsin). And that record is actually 10-1 ATS dating back to last season. The Cougars BEST role over the years is that of the UNDERDOG. Houston is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS as dogs over the last 12 months... 5-0 ATS as conference dogs of 4 > pts since 2005... and 6-0 ATS as DOUBLE-DIGIT dogs in Game Four or greater since 2004.

The Cougs couldn't quite pull out the upset last week, but they DID easily cover the +13.5 points in a 19-14 loss. QB John O'Korn leads an offense that's churning out 466 total YPG... with 306 YPG coming via the air. This 38.0 ppg offense can play from ahead or play from behind (OR come in the back door). And let's not forget that when they take on QB Teddy Bridgewater on defense, they bring the BEST ball-hawking secondary in college football. Houston leads the entire nation with 18 total interceptions.

This conference might be called the AAC now (American Athletic Conference), but it's still made up primarily of old Big East Conference members. And big FAVS in this conference do not do well against decent opponents.
1-8-1 ATS since 2006: All Big East / AAC favorites of > 14 pts off a SU win (Louisville) versus any .500 > opponent (HOUSTON).

The Cardinals play off a FRIDAY night win (but non-cover) against UConn.
0-5-1 ATS last 2 years: All Conference teams playing off a SU FRIDAY conference road win (Louisville) vs any .500 > opponent (HOUSTON).

Louisville was a BIG road fav of -28.5 in that win last week over the Huskies.
1-7 ATS last 2 years: All conference favs playing off a SU win but ATS loss as a road fav of -28 > pts (Louisville).