11-17-13

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Joe Gaffney
17-1 NFL Run.
Inner Conference BIG BLACK BEATDOWN ONE SHOT ONE KILL:

DETROIT LIONS
SAINTS
MIAMI

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Hondo Best Bets

Indy T
NY Giants
KC

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Lead pipe locks

mike greenberg
saints and bengals

mike golic:
Chiefs and browns

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Football Jesus Podcast Pick : Patriots Monday night

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Scott Kellen Sixth Sense Sports

2nd Round Golden Nugget Contest

Scott Kellen (SixthSenseSports.com)
1) Bills -1
2) Browns-Bengals under 42
3) Buccaneers +1.5
4) Chargers -1.5
5) Redskins +4.5
6) Redskins-Eagles over 53
7) Patriots-Panthers under 46 BEST BET

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Inside the Stats:

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. Here are this week’s findings…

As The Noose Tightens

November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race. College Football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Basketball tip off new campaigns. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value aplenty abounds.

Our focus in the world of College Football begins to center around postseason bowl games during turkey month. In particular, we like to zero in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.

This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Ten on out are 99-34-1 SU and 57-67-2 ATS. Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season nearly one-third of the time. A warning signal has been sounded for Alabama and Ohio State this week.

Pair them up against an under the radar opponent who won 8 or fewer games last season and watch them immediately play down to the level of the opposition as they dip to 6-21 ATS. Bring these same guys in off a win of 20 or more points and they have a difficult time getting their head through the door, going just 3-19 ATS.

Both the Crimson Tide and the Buckeyes look to meet their financial maker this week.

Down The Stretch

Its stretch-run time in college football and with it a list of teams that have been either moneymakers or money breakers at this stage of the season.

From my powerful database, here is how various teams have fared of late from Game Ten out during the regular season heading in to this year. As usual, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) with a minimum five occurrences.

Best Dogs: Arizona 11-1, Boston College 7-1, Memphis 7-1, San Jose State 6-0, Virginia Tech 6-1 and West Virginia 9-1.

Worst Dogs: Air Force 0-8, Michigan 0-5-1, Middle Tennessee State 1-9, Oklahoma State 1-10-1 and Texas Tech 1-5.

Best Favorites: Arkansas 7-0, Arkansas State 5-0, Baylor 5-0, Kansas 6-1, Middle Tennessee State 9-1, Oregon State 5-1, Troy 7-0 and UCLA 5-1.

Worst Favorites: Arizona 1-11, Boise State 0-8, Florida State 1-6, Navy 0-5, Louisville 1-5, Oklahoma 1-5, UAB 1-5 and Utah 0-5.

Note: see our ‘Stat Of The Week’ below for the crème de la crème of this study.

Pennzoil Plays

Fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games has proven to be a long-term winning investment.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 17-19 ATS overall this season, including 12-13 in CFB and 5-6 in the NFL.

According to our Midweek Alert football newsletter this week’s plays would be against Central Michigan, Colorado, Kent State and West Virginia on the college gridiron, along with Atlanta in the NFL.

Overwhelming

As we alluded to here last week, our NFL Totals Tipsheet reports OVER players have been taking down the cash in non-conference games this season.

After yet another unassailable 4-0 performance last week, non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 35-11 OVER this season, including a bookie busting 11-0 the last three weeks.

This week’s potential non-conference OVERS look to be: Lions vs. Steelers, Ravens vs. Bears, Cardinals vs. Jaguars and Patriots vs. Panthers.

Stat Of The Week

The underdog in Arizona Wildcats football games is 22-2 ATS from Game Ten out during the regular season.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Arizona at Jacksonville (Sunday 11/17 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona -8 (-110) at bovada

The Jacksonville Jaguars finally won a game last week. Congratulations. They ended up in a shootout against Tennessee, scoring a season-high 29 points. Sometimes it takes just one game to start to believe that you can score, so I expect that the Jags don't get to 29 again here, but score more than the 11.8 points per game they were averaging before last week. The bigger problem for the Jags remains their defense which has allowed 32.3 points per game and is showing little signs of improvement. Only once this season have they held an opponent to under 24 points (and that was offensively challenged Oakland). Arizona is a much improved team over a year ago. Over the last eight weeks they are 5-3 with the losses coming to San Francisco, New Orleans and Seattle - nothing to cry about there. They are beating the teams they are supposed to beat. The offense, which had been problematic, has suddenly found its way as the Cardinals have scored 20 points or more in five straight games. Last year they scored 20+ just once in their final 12 games so this team is far advanced offensively over a year ago. The Cards have now covered six of their last seven following an ATS loss. While Jacksonville may have that satisfied feeling here, as they are 1-7-1 ATS off a win in their previous game. And home field has provided no advantage for them as they are just 2-9 ATS at home dating back to last season. Lay the points with Arizona.

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Scott Ferrall paid NFL picks

Cleveland
CINCINNATI -6 (1)

JETS +1 ½ (2)
Buffalo

DETROIT -2 (3)
Pittsburgh

Washington
PHILADLEPHIA -3 ½ (4)

Minnesota
SEATTLE -13 (5)

San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS -2 (6)

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Hilton top 10......Including our old friend, rx member and former winner.....Jarhead.


JARHEAD - W34 L15 T1 LW 4-1

Week 11 Picks: NYJ PIT ARI KC NE

4 RICKY - W33 L15 T2 LW 4-1

Week 11 Picks: PIT SD HOU NO GB

ROSEAL - W32 L16 T2 LW 3-2

Week 11 Picks: ATL WAS OAK MIN NE

HOUSE AT SAL - W32 L18 T0 LW 4-1

Week 11 Picks: PIT WAS BAL CIN SEA

SHOWTIME HD - W32 L18 T0 LW 4-1

Week 11 Picks: CHI CIN NO GB NE

PREPAY - W31 L17 T2 LW 4-1

Week 11 Picks: TEN NYJ BAL CIN GB

TOOFDOC - W31 L18 T1 LW 3-2

Week 11 Picks: PHI BAL KC SEA SF

INDY BOYS - W31 L18 T1 LW 3-2

Week 11 Picks: BUF PIT CLE HOU DEN

ALL YOU CAN EAT - W31 L18 T1 LW 3-2

Week 11 Picks: DET BAL HOU ARI CAR

THE THREE AMIGOS - W31 L18 T1 LW 4-1

Week 11 Picks: NYJ PIT SD KC NE

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The Sports Nostradamus

Over Redskins
Bengals

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Ben Burns

Personal favorite Texans

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Pick Winners Not Your Nose

3* Redskins
2* Saints
2* Boston College/Florida Atlantic over

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Sports bank
500 pittsburgh

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Millionaires
lock
chicago

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IRISH MIKE MORAN

NFL:
WAS+3
BUF-1.5(2x)
SDG-1.5
DET-1.5(2x)
SEA O45.5(2x)