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Larry Ness' 10* NFL Week 11 Goin' Over Total (won 3 of last 4)
My 10* NFL Week 11 is on Min/Sea Over at 4:25 ET.
Seattle has established itself as one of the NFL's most complete teams, ranking third in both total (289.0 YPG) and scoring defense (17.2 PPG), as well as ranking sixth in scoring offense (26.5 PPG). Most importantly, Seattle owns the NFC’s best record (9-1), 2 1/2 games better than NFC West rival San Francisco, as well as the North’s Lions and the South’s Panthers (also both 6-3). The closest team to the Seahawks in the race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed is the 7-2 Saints, a team which has looked fairly mediocre when one gets it outside of its home dome.
More good news seems to be coming Seattle’s way, as its major off-season pick up, Percy Harvin, is finally ready to get back on the field and as fate would have it, the Minnesota Vikings will be visiting Seattle on Sunday, allowing Harvin to make his first appearance as a Seahawk against his old team. The Seahawks climbed 2 1/2 games ahead of second-place San Francisco in the West with last Sunday's 33-10 rout at Atlanta. Russell Wilson completed 19 of 26 passes for 287 yards and two TDs while Marshawn Lynch ran for a season-high 145 yards and a score.
Seattle is now back home where it is 4-0 this season, after going 8-0 last year. Seattle lone loss this season came in Week 5 at Indy (see Denver regarding that), with Seahawks winning FIVE in a row, since. The Seahawks haven't won six straight in a season since a franchise-record 11-game winning streak in 2005, the same season Seattle made its only Super Bowl appearance. "We've got more games we have to win and we have a lot of work to finish it out," coach Pete Carroll said. "We have a chance to do something special in this division, we need to take advantage of every opportunity and win every game going down the stretch."
The Vikings snapped a four-game losing streak with their 34-27 win over Washington, a week ago Thursday. However, QB Christian Ponder, who was 17 of 21 for 174 yards and two scores, dislocated his non-throwing shoulder trying to dive for a TD. "When they see that tape and see that he extended his body the way he did, it's going to increase their appreciation for who he is as a person and what he means to our team as a quarterback," coach Leslie Frazier said.
As of now, it looks as if Ponder will play. Whoever lines up at QB faces a tough challenge against a Seahawks defense giving up just 178.0 passing YPG, the league's second-best mark. Although Seattle is all but certain to be without star CB Brandon Browner due to a groin injury, Carroll doesn't expect his team to miss a beat. "We're in good shape at the position," Carroll said. "If we're going to miss Brandon, it's going to be significant because he's a terrific player for us, but we do have really capable guys to step in."
Cutting to the chase, note that the Seahawks have averaged 30.1 PPG in going 4-0 at home in 2013, after averaging 30.4 PPG while going 8-0 at home last year (pretty consistent, right?) Having Harvin available would sure help. He had 62 receptions for 677 yards and five total TDs -- including a 105-yard kick return -- last season before missing the Vikings' final seven games with an ankle injury. "He just has to practice every day and show that what he's done in the rehab has paid off and that he can sustain through each day," Carroll said. "It's really the next day that we always look at. ... We'll just see how it goes. To us it's not a pressure decision."
Whether Harvin plays or not, why won’t Seattle score in the 30s (at least) vs a Minnesota team it beat 30-20 last year, here in Seattle? That Minnesota team went 10-6 and made the playoffs, yet Wilson completed 16 of 24 passes with three TDs (no INTs), while Seattle ran for 195 yards (Lynch had 124). Minnesota just beat Washington, but RG3 threw for 281 yards (3 TDs / 0 INTs / 114.8 QB rating) plus Morris ran for 139 yards (5.3 YPC). This year’s Minnesota defense ranks 30th in points allowed (31.0 per) and 29th in passing yards allowed (285.7 per), allowing opposing QBs to complete 66.9 % (3rd-highest in NFL), while throwing 21 TDs against just eight INTs.
Now going up against Seattle’s defense is no easy chore but note that A.P. had 182 yards rushing last year vs the Seahawks and except for Minnesota’s back-to-back ‘ugly’ games against Carolina (35-10 loss) and the NY Giants (23-7 loss) in Weeks 6 and 7, the Vikings have scored 24, 30, 27, 34, 31, 23 and 34 points in their other seven contests. Seattle will ‘drive’ this over play but the Vikings are capable of scoring enough points for this game to ‘FLY’ over the number!
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