11-18-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Youngstown Connection
Date: Monday November 18, 2013
$20.00 NCAAB Play
#518 Arkansas -4.5 7PM Eastern
Lines from CRIS
Line as of 415PM Eastern 11/18/13

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SpOrTs-JuNkiE's 11-18-13 ($500 Play of the Day!!)


$500 NFL play: Panthers -1 (Bovada) (-115)

He also notes: Please SHOP for the best line. Anything from -2.5 or lower is good. If you have -3, I would buy it to -2.5. The money line is always an option as well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Biff Group / Members





Today's Picks:






NE ML+125 (Car) 825, GT or N, 1.5 units



NE/Car Under47 825, N or BN 47, MVB, OPBC, SNGL





Charleston-1* (Mia FLA) 730, N, RLM, OPBC, BHT* DBL



SMU ML+170 (Ark) 8, GT, AN, SNGL



Tex South+8.5 (Tex Tech) 9, GT, MVB, OPBC, SNGL



UNC Ash+30/29.5 (Duke) 7, GT, MVB, AN, NOTBIFF, SNGL





Dal-11.5 (Phi) 835, GT or BN, VB, OPDG, SNGL



BK-2 (Port) 735, N or GT, OPDG, SNGL



Mem+8.5/9 (LAC) 1035, N or BN+9, LNC, RDFF Mem, SNGL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joey cassano

Panthers -2.5

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Bob Balfe

Carolina
Carolina over

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Dr. Ed Meyer NBA Total Mon, 11/18/13 - 9:05 PM

double-dime bet - 510 UTA / 509 GSW - UNDER 195.5
Analysis:
The Warriors are off a 102-88 home win over these Jazz in which they shot 51.2% from the field and led by double-digits after each one of the four quarters. These type of easy wins have tended to put the Warriors into a malaise, as they are 0-22 OU on the road with rest vs a rested opponent when they are off a win by more than eight points in which they led at the half and shot at least 47.5% from the field. The SDQL text is:

team=Warriors and A and 0<rest and o:rest>0 and p:margin>8 and p:FGP>47.5 and p:M2>0 and date>=20070422

This one is already 2-0 this season, with the most recent active date their 76-74 loss in San Antonio with the total at 201. Wow.

In addition, the Warriors are 1-18 OU on the road with rest when they are off a win by more than ten points in which they scored fewer than 16% of their points from the free throw line. Check it out with this SDQL text:

team=Warriors and A and 0<rest and p:PFT<16 and date>=20070422 and p:margin>10

This one is already 0-3 OU this season.

The Jazz are 0-6 OU (-10.92 ppg) at home after any game in which Enes Kanter was not the Jazz's high scorer and 0-10 OU at home after a loss in which Alec Burks played fewer than 30 minutes and shot worse than 30% from the field, staying under by an average of 17.6 ppg. The SDQL for the latter of these two is:

H and Alec Burks:p:FGP<30 and p:L and date>=20120330 and Alec Burks:p:minutes<30

The Warriors should simply provide the minimum effort necessary to put this one in the win column and the Jazz's best chance to win is to make this a low-scoring, half-court affair. Take the UNDER.

MTi's FORECAST: Golden St 92 UTAH 87

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NCAA-B Nov 18 '13
8:00p Southern Miss vs North Dakota State
Take: North Dakota State -5-110 in 2h
6* NCAAB *CA$H COW* on North Dakota State -5
The Key: North Dakota State brings back its entire starting five, and it will be extremely focused and motivated tonight after losing by double-digits at St. Mary's last game. The Bison have been nearly unbeatable at home where they are 13-1 in their last 14. North Dakota State is on a 9-1 ATS run following a double-digit road loss. It's also an impressive 26-10 ATS in its last 36 non-conference contests. The Golden Eagles have been a poor investment at 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. You also want to take home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like N. Dakota State that return two more starters than their opponent and had a good defense last season, one that held opponents to 42% shooting or worse. Doing so has produced a 41-14 ATS mark since 1997. Teams fitting these parameters have won by an average of 11.4 points. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and 3-0 ATS this season.

Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NBA Nov 18 '13
8:05p Charlotte Bobcats vs Chicago Bulls
Take: Charlotte Bobcats +11½-101 in 2h
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bobcats +11.5
The Key: The Bulls are being overvalued following four consecutive SU and ATS double-digit wins. The Bobcats have won their last 3 road games outright as underdogs and will be lacking no motivated here against a Chicago team that defeated them by 30 the last time they met. Prior to that loss, Charlotte had defeated the Bulls by double digits as an 11.5 point dog and lost by only 8 points as a 13-point dog for back-to-back covers in the series. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago, and the road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bulls are a lousy 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. You also want to take underdogs of 10 or more points that have shot team 42% or worse in 3 straight games when they're up against a team that has allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less in 5 straight games. Doing so has produced a 28-8 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have been underdogs of 12.8 points on average but have lost by just 7.3 points on average. Take the points.

Sport Date Matchup Book Starts
NFL Nov 18 '13
8:40p New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers
Take: Carolina Panthers -1-115 in 3h
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Panthers -1
The Key: Look for the red-hot Panthers to keep right on rolling against a New England team that has struggled on the road. The Patriots are 2-2 on the road and could be 1-3 or even 0-4. They needed a field goal in the closing seconds to pull out a win at Buffalo, and they needed to hold off Falcons in the final in Atlanta. They were fortunate Atlanta scored only one touchdown on six trips inside the 20 that day. The Bills and Falcons are 6-15 combined and don't have overwhelming defenses. The Patriots have lost their last two road games against the Bengals and Jets - teams with Top 10 defensive units. They face arguably the best defense in the league tonight. The Panthers rank No. 1 in total and scoring defense with 283.3 yards and 12.8 points per game allowed. They have been tough as nails against the run and the pass. The Patriots haven't been the same offensive juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing either. They put up big points in their last game against Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are very mediocre defensively this year. The New England stop unit has struggled to stop the run, which means it will likely struggle to slow down Carolina's Top 10 running attack. You want to take all teams when the line is +3 to -3 following a close road win of 3 points or less, provided they have a winning percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 35-11 ATS mark since 1983 and a perfect 8-0 ATS tally the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that New England is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite over the last 3 season

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

3 Unit Play Take #530 Georgia State -15.5 over McNeese State (5:30pm est):
McNeese State comes into this season without their best player from last year in Desharick Guidry who is sitting the first semester out due to academic reasons. Add this loss into the fact they are missing their other top scorer from last year's team and what we have here is clearly a program that is a notch or two worse than even last year's 302nd ranked Kenpom team. This is a team that has played seven teams ranked higher than 113th ranked Georgia State the last two years and who are 1-6 in those games and have been outscored by over 22 points per game. In fact none of the six losses were by less than the 16 point spread we see here in this game today.

Georgia State comes in one of my top under the radar teams in all of CBB to begin this season. They have played just two games so far and so the Panthers remain an underrated squad coming into this game here. They have had almost a full week off to prepare for this game here and should come in completely focused especially after playing in a tight loss to a good Vanderbilt team their last game. This looks to be easily the best of the three teams head coach Ron Hunter has had since taking over the GSU program. Keep in mind that the Panthers won 22 games in Hunter's first season also.

Off a loss and with a week to prepare I expect a full out effort from a good Georgia State team here. Play Georgia State minus the points. My NBA season has started off on fire with a rock solid 11-7 mark overall and ahead profit wise on the season. I am bound and determined to have a very good pro hoops season this year and there is no doubt in my mind I will as I am locked in and ready to roll with a well thought out strategy I have tested and won with in the past. Join me and see for yourself as we still have a ton of season left and a lot of winning as well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

NHL
3 Unit Play Take #2503 Under 5 ½ -130 - Anaheim at Pittsburgh (7:35 p.m., Monday November 18)

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

2-Unit Play #543 Take SE Missouri State (-1) over Ball State (7 p.m., Monday, November 18)
I simply think the Redhawks are better. The OVC school is one of the better teams in the league this year and they have more on the table to work with this season. SE Missouri State has won two straight by double digits after losing their opener to a good Saint Louis team. Beating Ball State here will be three in a row for them.

2-Unit Play #517 Take SMU (+4.5) over Arkansas (8 p.m., Monday, November 18)
The Mustangs have a lot going for themselves in the second year under head coach Larry Brown. SMU has all five starters back and begin the season in a new conference with some expectations. Arkansas graduated its top two players, and I think the underdog has the better team at this point in the season and will win this game outright. Take the points with the American Conference program.

2-Unit Play #535 Take Norfolk State (+1.5) over East Carolina (9:30 p.m., Monday, November 18)
The MEAC's top team are more talented team. East Carolina is a middle of the road, ho hum Conference USA team. They graduated its best two players from last season and I think this spread is just the product of oddsmakers assuming the more notable conference should be favored at home. Pendarvis Williams is the top player in the MEAC this year and he will be the best player in this game. He and the rest of his Spartan teammates will secure a non-conference win over the Pirates in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAY

2 Unit Play Take #536 East Carolina -1 ½ over Norfolk St (9:30p.m., Monday, Nov 18)
Yes the Pirates have lost some scoring from last year but this young season the ECU Pirates are averaging 92.3ppg. This should be a high scoring event and I see the Pirates nipping Norfolk St as the Pirates have the better athletics. East Carolina will stay perfect tonight and I would check back later because we might have a total play in this game as well. East Carolina is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games and 4-0-1 ATS following a SU win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

4-Unit Play Take #518 Arkansas (-3.5) over SMU (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)
I had this line at -7 so I like the Razorbacks here. I already cashed with Arkansas once this year and I will again here. This team has one of the best home court advantages in college basketball. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games and they are 2-0 SU and ATS this year with two blowout wins. SMU is improving. But they are not ready to step up to this SEC school on the road. SMU lost its leading returning scorer last week when he decided to transfer. This team is still young and should get taught a lesson here.

3-Unit Play Take #524 Colorado (-13) over Arkansas State (8 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)
I like the Buffs at home here. Like Arkansas, Colorado has a big home court advantage. Arkansas State was blown out by 21 points at Wyoming on Saturday. They will be blown out here. Arkansas State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games going back to last year and 0-3 ATS this year. They are just 2-6 ATS on the road. Colorado has rebounded from its opening game loss with three straight wins. Two of them were home blowouts by over 20 points. That is what this game will be.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

1-Unit Play Take #516 Charleston (-1) over Miami (7:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)

1-Unit Play Take #517 SMU (+3.5) over Arkansas (8 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)

1-Unit Play Take #519 Arkansas-Little Rock (+12) over Middle Tennessee State (8 p.m., Monday, Nov. 180

1-Unit Play Take #521 Portland (+22.5) over Michigan State (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)

2-Unit Play Take #530 Georgia State (-15) over McNeese State (5:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)

1-Unit Play Take #548 North Dakota State (-5) over Southern Miss (8 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)

1-Unit Play Take #564 Texas Tech (-7) over Texas Southern (9 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)

1-Unit Play TEASER: Take #528 Rutgers (-2.5) over Canisius (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #517 SMU (+8.5) over Arkansas (8 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)

1-Unit Play TEASER: Take #530 Georgia State (-10) over McNeese State (5:30 p.m.) AND Take #564 Texas Tech (-2) over Texas Southern (9 p.m., Monday, Nov. 18)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

3 Unit Play #518 Take Arkansas Razorbacks -3.5 over SMU Mustangs (8 pm) The Razorbacks have been a strong team in Fayetteville under Coach Mike Anderson. They have gone 33-5 under his tutelage and that includes going 18-1 last year. SMU is coached by Larry Brown and he has a solid group of players but they have many newcomers and thus it will take some time to gel against good teams. The Razorbacks 40 minutes of hell is much more effective at home than it is on the road and that again will be the case on Tuesday. The Hogs have covered 8 of their last 10 home games. SMU is 5-11 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friends of Mike Lee:
· Bulls - 12 ****
· Colorado -15 ****
· Trailblazers +2 ***
· Clippers -8.5 ***
· Cleveland State +1 ***