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Joey Cassano
NFL
UNDER - Cowboys vs Giants
NFL
UNDER - Cowboys vs Giants
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Todays Bets Bets
5* - [224] Baltimore Ravens -3.5 -105 vs New York Jets
5* - [219] Pittsburgh Steelers PK +100 vs Cleveland Browns
4* - [232] New England Patriots +1 +100 vs Denver Broncos
3* - [227] Indianapolis Colts +1 +115 vs Arizona CardinalsComment
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Pointspreadpros
Week 12 TOP Plays
BALTIMORE -4
Tennessee +1Comment
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Total Talk - Week 12
By Chris David
Week 11 Recap
The ‘over’ went 9-6 last week and the majority of those tickets were helped with low numbers. In the nine games that went ‘over’ in Week 11, the closing total was listed at 41 or lower in six of those games. Conversely, the ‘under’ went 3-0 in games with a total listed at 49 ½ points or higher. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 87-72-2.
Weather Update
Last week’s game between Chicago and Baltimore was the first affected by weather this season. Even though the game was delayed due to a tornado and the conditions were tough, the ‘over’ still cashed. This weekend, temperatures are expected to drop in a handful of games and most of the numbers have already been adjusted. Check our updated WEATHER feed and keep your eye on these six games.
Minnesota at Green Bay
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
N.Y. Jets at Baltimore
Dallas at N.Y. Giants
Denver at New England
San Francisco at Washington
Non-Conference Overs
The hottest total trend in the NFL cashed again in Week 11 as the ‘over’ went 3-1 (75%). On the season, we’ve had 50 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 38-12 (76%) in those games. There are two more games that fit this angle on Sunday.
Carolina at Miami
Indianapolis at Arizona
Line Moves
The Line Moves went 2-3 last week, pushing the season numbers to 31-22-1 (58%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.
Tampa Bay at Detroit: Line opened 45½ and jumped to 48½
Minnesota at Green Bay: Line opened 45 and dropped to 43½
N.Y. Jets at Baltimore: Line opened 40½ and dropped to 38½
Indianapolis at Arizona: Line opened 43½ and jumped to 45
Indoor Shootouts
Even though there is expected to be low temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest this Sunday, it won’t affect three games in the NFL and two of them have already been taking early action (See above). Here are some quick notes to watch on the indoor games in Week 12.
Tampa Bay at Detroit: The Buccaneers have seen the ‘over’ cash in six consecutive weeks. The Lions have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 at home behind an offense that has scored 34, 40, 24 and 31 points.
Chicago at St. Louis: The Bears have scored 40, 32, 41 and 27 points in four road games this season. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in these games. St. Louis is tied for the best ‘over’ record (8-2) in the league.
Indianapolis at Arizona: After watching the ‘under’ start the season with a 4-1 record, the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last five for Arizona. Outside of a nine-point performance against San Diego, the Colts have scored 27 or more points in their four other road games this season. This game fits the NFC-AFC trend as well (See Above).
Divisional Battles
In Week 11, we had five divisional matchups and the ‘over’ went 3-2 in those games. Four of those games were rematches and the opposite outcome occurred in two of them. This Sunday, we have another five division games on tap and two of them are rematches.
Jacksonville at Houston: The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series but last year’s meeting in Houston saw the Texans outlast the Jaguars 43-37 in overtime.
Minnesota at Green Bay: The Packers lit up the Vikings 44-31 on Oct. 27 behind QB Aaron Rodgers, who isn’t playing this weekend. Since he’s gone down with his shoulder injury, the ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run for Green Bay.
San Diego at Kansas City: Last season, the ‘over’ cashed in both games as the Chargers captured 31-13 and 37-20 victories. The Chiefs are much improved and they’ve been a great ‘under’ look (8-2) all season.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four encounters. Weather (See above) is expected to be ugly, possibly snow in Ohio on Sunday.
Dallas at N.Y. Giants: In Week 1, the Cowboys defeated the Giants 36-31 at home and the ‘over’ was never in doubt (49 ½). That game was played in Arlington and the last five meetings there have seen a minimum of 50 points. I mention this because the last two encounters in New York have seen a combined 41 and 45 points. This week’s total is hovering between 44 and 45 points and I would expect the final result to be somewhere around that neighborhood again.
Under the Lights
The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and we also saw the ‘under’ cash this past Thursday as New Orleans held off Atlanta 17-13 on the road. Similar to last week, the SNF matchup features another pair of AFC contenders squaring off.
Denver at New England: Even though New England has leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season, it’s still staring a total close to 54, which is the highest number it has seen this season. The high total is due to Denver’s ability to score in bunches but the once explosive offense has tempered lately. After watching the ‘over’ start 8-0, Denver has seen its last two games go ‘under.’ The battle between quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning is catching a lot of buzz and deservingly so. This will be the 14th meeting between the pair, 12 coming when Peyton was with the Colts. Last season, Brady and the Patriots beat the Broncos 31-21 at home behind a ground game that racked up 251 yards. Including that victory, Brady is 9-4 in head-to-head meetings against Manning.
San Francisco at Washington: This total seems a tad high especially when you look at the current form of the quarterbacks (Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III). However, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Washington has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 at home this season and its defense can’t stop anybody. Also, San Francisco has played better offensively on the road (26.2 PPG). If you take away a three-point performance against Seattle in Week 2, the 49ers have averaged 32 PPG in their other four road games.
Fearless Predictions
The Dolphins let us down last week and we paid the price twice. Fortunately, the ‘under’ in Kansas City-Denver cashed and so did our Teaser. On the season we’re up 90 cents ($90). Make a note that we’ll putting out a column on Thanksgiving and next Sunday. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Chicago-St. Louis 45½
Best Under: San Diego-Kansas City 43
Best Team Total: Over Chicago 22½
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36½ Chicago-St. Louis
Over 31½ Miami-Carolina
Over 36 Indianapolis-ArizonaComment
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ROCKY'S NEWSLETTER
OVER - UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
PLAY OVER THE TOTAL IN THE NFL WHEN ROAD TEAM IS OFF OUTRIGHT LOSS AS FAVORITE, BUT
STILL HAS WINNING RECORD FOR THE CURRENT SEASON
54-20 LAST 74 = 73% WINS
THIS WEEK PLAY
JETS - BALTIMORE - OVER 38.5Comment
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Sharp Moves - Week 12
By Mike Rose
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 12!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com databases as of Friday morning.
New York +3.5 – The Jets know that winning this game essentially eliminates Baltimore from the playoffs in all likelihood. That's why there's a lot of public action coming in on the Ravens essentially laying just beyond home field advantage. In the end though, doesn't this just feel like a game that Gang Green comes out and wins? The Jets have alternated wins and losses all season long, and this one would be the spot for a win if that sequence were to holds up.
Opening Line: New York +4
Current Line: New York +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Baltimore
San Diego +4 – This is a vintage sandwich game for the Chiefs. They've got the two pieces of bread known as the games against Denver and this big chunk of turkey in the middle known as the Chargers. Just one problem: San Diego is no turkey team. The Bolts have only been out of one game which they have played this year. This is a winnable game for a desperate San Diego outfit that enters having dropped three games in a row.
Opening Line: San Diego +5
Current Line: San Diego +4
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Kansas City
Arizona -2.5 – If there is a man out there that should be able to figure out what QB Andrew Luck is doing, it would be Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians, who coached up Luck in his rookie campaign last year in Indy. The Colts really aren't in that much dire need of wins, as the AFC South is probably already wrapped up. It's Arizona which is in the thick of the fight in the NFC Wild Card chase, and this is a very winnable home game for sure.
Opening Line: Arizona -1.5
Current Line: Arizona -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 59% on Indianapolis
New England +2 – Sharp money is pouring in on the Pats this week as 'dogs at home, but the injury report suggests otherwise. The Broncos are expected to have all of their most important players in this game, including WR Wes Welker, who was concussed last week. Meanwhile, New England has its top three cornerbacks all nursing injuries, which isn't good going against what is likely the best passing game in NFL history. Someone knows something, though, as this line is moving the opposite direction of conventional wisdom. Perhaps it's that New England has won three in a row both SU and ATS against the Broncos.
Opening Line: New England +3
Current Line: New England +2
Public Betting Percentages: 65% on DenverComment
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THE GOLD SHEET
♦♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦♦
PITTSBURGH by 9 over Cleveland
ST. LOUIS by 13 over Chicago
N.Y. GIANTS by 14 over DallasComment
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POINTWISE
PROFESSIONAL
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
NFL KEY RELEASES
TENNESSEE over Oakland RATING: 3
INDIANAPOLIS over Arizona RATING: 4
HOUSTON over Jacksonville RATING: 4
CLEVELAND over Pittsburgh RATING: 5
NEW YORK JETS over Baltimore RATING: 5Comment
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RED SHEET
PRO FOOTBALL
ST LOUIS 26 - Chicago 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Pick, & is now StLouis minus 1. Another
NFL team off its bye week, the Rams catch the Bears off a pair of draining efforts, namely a 2-pt
loss to division foe Detroit, & an OT win over Baltimore. StLouis has added a highly potent element
to their offense (which has recovered nicely from the shocking loss of QB Bradford), with the
addition of KR, WR Austin, who simply blistered the Colts in that unexpected 38-8 win at Indy,
with 57, 88 yd TD receptions, along with
a 98-yd punt return score. Chicago still without Cutler, & has division rival Minny on deck.
RATING: ST LOUIS 88Comment
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PLAYBOOK
5★ BEST BET
San Diego over KANSAS CITY by 10
4★ BEST BET
CLEVELAND over Pittsburgh by 13
3★ BEST BET
Dallas over NY GIANTS by 7Comment
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THE GREEN SHEET
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 DETROIT (-9½) over Tampa Bay
RATING 4 TENNESSEE (+1½) over Oakland
RATING 3 ST. LOUIS (-1) over Chicago
RATING 2 CLEVELAND (-2½) over Pittsburgh
RATING 1 INDIANAPOLIS (+2½) over ArizonaComment
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KILLER SPORTS NEWSLETTER
Two-Team, Six-Point Teaser Play of the Week
4-Star Minnesota +10.5, Miami +9.5
Three-Team, Ten-Point Teaser Play of the Week
4-Star Cleveland +8.5, Ravens +6, Chargers +16
4.5-Star DETROIT -9 over Tampa Bay
4.5-Star Panthers at Dolphins - OVER 41
4-STAR Jacksonville over HOUSTON
4-STAR Minnesota/Green Bay - OverComment
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PLAYBOOK / VICTOR KING
TOTALS TIPSHEET
3* Colts @ Cardinals - ‘OVER’
2* Jaguars @ Texans - ‘OVER’
2* SPEEDEE'S "UNDEComment
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Stephen Nover
218 MIA double-dime bet
225 TEN double-dime bet
227 IND double-dime betComment
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2Halves2Win:
(GAME: 1*): Panthers-Dolphins o41(-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units)
(GAME: 1*): Chargers +3.5(-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units)
(GAME: 1*): Rams -1(-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units)
(GAME: 1*): Colts-Cardinals o45(-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units)Comment
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