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NFL Prop Shop: Thanksgiving's best player prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY
Most shops are closed on the Thanksgiving holiday, but not Sean Murphy’s NFL Prop Shop. He gives you his best team and player prop and picks for Thursday’s three NFL games.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Total pass completions by Matt Stafford: Over 24 (-110)
I think there's some thought that the Lions will focus heavier on the run after Matt Stafford's four-interception game against the Bucs last Sunday, but I'm not on board with that line of thinking.
The Lions know that the Packers secondary has struggled, allowing well north of eight yards per pass play. They would be foolish not to attack that weakness early and often. Stafford is coming off a bad game, but those have been few and far between. He's only thrown 11 picks compared to 24 touchdowns this season.
Total points by Lions: Over 28 (-110)
Detroit has been held to 27 points or less in three straight games, but I fully expect it to top that number Thursday afternoon.
The Packers defense held up relatively well down the stretch against the Vikings last Sunday, allowing the offense to get them back in the game. As far as I'm concerned, leaning on their defense isn't a sustainable venture moving forward.
It should be business as usual for the Lions offense at Ford Field on Turkey Day. They've seemingly been cursed in this spot over the years, but with a healthy Matt Stafford on the field they have consistently put up points. I expect no different here.
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys
Total touchdown passes by Tony Romo: Under 2 (+130)
Tony Romo has been receiving plenty of praise lately and that won't change off a big win over the Giants last Sunday. I still see a quarterback plagued by inconsistency, however.
Romo has thrown two touchdown passes or less in three straight and five of the last six games. This is the type of game where Dallas should be able to build a sizable lead before handing the keys over to the ground game - something that seemed lost on the coaching staff last Sunday.
The Raiders defense doesn't carry a great reputation but has actually performed quite well on the road, allowing just 5.4 yards per play and 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Total pass completions by Joe Flacco: Under 20 (-110)
I don't believe that this is Joe Flacco's game to win or lose.
The Ravens have been putting more and more faith in their running game and defense in recent weeks and I think we'll see that trend continue against the rival Steelers Thursday.
Of course, the Steelers defense has also risen to the occasion lately. Over their last three games, they've allowed just 5.8 yards per pass play.
In the first meeting between these two this season, Flacco completed 24 passes but the Ravens lost 19-16. Don't count on them to follow the same script here. -
Essential betting tidbits for the NFL's Thanksgiving games
We know you will be grabbing for an extra helping of juicy turkey this Thanksgiving, so why not some extra juicy betting tidbits as a perfect side to go along with Thursday's Thanksgiving NFL action.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7, 49)
- The Packers will be without Aaron Rodgers for the fourth straight game since breaking his collarbone and his absence has not only taken a toll on his team, but on bettors as well. The once high-powered Pack offense have gone 0-4 ATS without Rodgers and have only hit the Over once in that span.
- The Packers will turn to Matt Flynn at QB, whose last start for the Packers back in 2011 when he defeated the Lions in a 45-41 shootout, setting single game Packers records for yards (480) and passing TDs (6) in the process.
- The Lions have been mere kittens on Thanksgiving, losing nine consecutive games on turkey day, going 1-8 ATS. Matthew Stafford is 0-3 in three career Thanksgiving games, with only four TDs and seven INTS, which goes along with his recent trend of turning over the football.
- Calvin Johnson has scored a TD in his last four Thanksgiving games, but has only averaged 4.5 receptions and 70 receiving yards in those games.
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 47.5)
- The Raiders are a surprising 6-4-1 ATS this season and are even better on the road with 3-1-1 ATS a record. They are 6-3 ATS when they rush for 100 or more yards, the Cowboys give up 133.6 yards rushing per game.
- Undrafted free-agent QB Matt McGloin makes only his third start for the Raiders and his first in the national spotlight. He has thrown for 457 yards and four TDs in those games. But when he is under center the Raiders need to improve on third down, going 8-for-28.
- The Cowboys have quietly become the best team in the NFL when it comes to covering the spread. After last week's road victory over the Giants, the 'Boys now sit at 8-3 ATS.
- Another undrafted free-agent QB, Tony Romo, seems to enjoy feasting on Thanksgiving, more specifically on his opponents. Romo has a 5-1 record in Thanksgiving Day games throwing for 17 TDs and only 6 INTs.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 41)
- The Steelers, who many thought were long dead in the playoff race after a 0-4 start, are back in the mix after rattling off five wins in their last seven games going 5-2 ATS in that span. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Baltimore.
- Big Ben has been a big reason for the Steelers turn-around this season. Since the bye he has thrown 15 TDs and six INTs with a QB rating of over 98.
- The Ravens are 3-0 this season straight up and ATS when they out-rush their opponents. The problem is they have only out-rushed opponents three times
in 11 games this season. Ray Rice has been a shell of his former self this season and is averaging less than three yards per carry.
- The Ravens have been a much better home team compared to when they play on the road. They are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS at home versus 1-5 SU and 2-4
ATS on the road.Comment
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Lions' slump and other NFL Thanksgiving betting records
Disappointment has been right there with the turkey and mashed potatoes on the Thanksgiving Day menu for Detroit Lions fans, who have suffered though a nine-game losing skid on the holiday Thursday.
Detroit has managed to cover only twice during that decade-long drought, coming through for loyal Lions bettors in a crushing 34-31 overtime loss as a 3.5-point home underdog last Thanksgiving.
Looking back, Thanksgiving has been a pretty crappy occasion for football fans in the Motor City, and not because they have the in-laws coming to town. Since 1985, the Lions are 11-17 SU and 12-16 ATS during their annual Thanksgiving game.
Hopefully, Detroit backers were also getting down on the Under every Thanksgiving. The Lions are a profitable 5-23 O/U on the holiday Thursday and aren’t the only Thanksgiving NFL staples leaning towards low-scoring games on Turkey Day.
The Dallas Cowboys have produced an 8-20 O/U record on Thanksgiving since 1985. But, unlike Detroit, America’s Team has produced a profit against the spread – be it a slight one – with a 15-13 SU and 16-12 ATS mark on Thanksgiving in that span.
Here’s a look at the other four teams taking the field on Thanksgiving and their record in the holiday spotlight since 1985:
Green Bay Packers: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Oakland Raiders: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U
Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U
Baltimore Ravens: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/UComment
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Thanksgiving Thursday's one-spot stop betting cheat sheet
It's Thanksgiving, which means the house is packed with family, the kitchen is a mess and you have zero time to to handicap all this Thursday's sport action. Don't start sweating gravy. We've got you covered with our betting cheat sheet for Thanksgiving Thursday's biggest events.
NFL
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 49)
Green Bay's four-game winless streak can't be blamed entirely on the quarterback situation, as the defense has allowed 409.5 yards per game over the past four contests compared to 331.1 in the first seven. The Packers also are minus-3 in turnover margin over that span, though they did not have a giveaway against Minnesota. Rookie running back Eddie Lacy gained 158 yards on 31 touches against Minnesota.
Detroit has been hurt by self-inflicted wounds, committing eight turnovers in back-to-back losses since seizing control of the division with a win over the Bears in Week 10. Turnovers are the only thing slowing down the Lions' offense, which ranks sixth in total yards (412.1) and third in passing (308.4). The defense has held five straight opponents under 100 yards rushing but has struggled against the pass.
LINE: The Packers are 6 1/2-point favorites after opening as low as -5. The over/under is down one point to 49.
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Packers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. the NFC North.
* Lions are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 47)
Raiders rookie quarterback Matt McGloin has done a credible job leading the offense considering running back Darren McFadden remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and receiver Denarius Moore (shoulder) sat out Sunday. The Raiders rank fifth in the league in rushing, but that's skewed by the 504 yards Pryor has racked up in eight games.
Dallas limped into its bye week after a 49-17 loss at New Orleans, but Romo's late heroics against the Giants might have saved the Cowboys' season. The offense is still inconsistent and leans too heavily on the pass, but having DeMarco Murray back to full strength should help get the running game going. Dallas allows 432.2 yards per game - most in the league - and gave up 202 rushing yards to New York.
LINE: Dallas is holding as a 9 1/2-point fave with the over/under up 1 1/2 points to 47.
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams with losing road records.
* Under is 10-3 in Oakland's last 13 games following a SU win.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 41)
Pittsburgh was held under 20 points in five of its first seven games but has come alive offensively during its winning streak, averaging 29 points. Ben Roethlisberger has cut down his interceptions and thrown seven touchdowns versus one pick while being sacked only once in the three-game run after getting taken down 35 times in the first nine contests.
Quarterback Joe Flacco became the league's highest-paid player after delivering a Super Bowl championship to Baltimore last season but he has already thrown a career-high 14 interceptions, including six in the past four games. Ray Rice failed to build on his season-high 131-yard performance on Nov. 17, managing only 30 yards on 16 carries Sunday to mark the seventh time he has been held to 36 yards or fewer.
LINE: Baltimore opened -1 but the line has been bet up to -2 1/2. The over/under is up a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s under clear skies with wind blowing across the length of the field at 5 mph.
TRENDS:
* Steelers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Pittsburgh is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
NCAAF
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns (-4, 66)
The Red Raiders, trying to avoid their second five-game losing streak in three years, lead the country in passing at 400.2 yards. Tight end Jace Amaro leads the team with 92 catches for 1,157 yards and is on pace to set the NCAA record for single-season receptions and yards by a tight end (Rice's James Casey had 111 catches for 1,329 yards in 2008).
Malcolm Brown (515 yards, nine touchdowns) and Joe Bergeron (240 yards, three TDs) have carried the load for Texas - which has the league's third-best running attack at 192.7 yards - after leading rusher Johnathan Gray (780 yards, four TDs) was lost to an Achilles injury two games ago. The Longhorns' defensive turnaround has Texas leading the Big 12 in total defense with 349.6 yards allowed in conference games.
LINE: Texas is holding as a four-point fave with the over/under set at 66.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Red Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 November games.
* Longhorns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 25-9 in Texas Tech's last 34 games.
Mississippi Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+4.5, 53.5)
Quarterback Bo Wallace battled flu-like symptoms in a 24-10 loss to Missouri, which is one of four ranked teams to beat the Rebels this season. Freeze was unable to update the condition of the Wallace, who has completed 64.4 percent of his passes this season for 2,908 and 17 touchdowns, but the junior was at practice Monday. "There won't be any effect at all," said Wallace, who threw five touchdowns in last year's Egg Bowl.
Damien Williams is expected to start at quarterback Thursday after scoring the winning touchdown in last week's victory over Arkansas in relief of starter Tyler Russell, who injured his shoulder. Dak Prescott leads the team in passing and rushing, but won't be available unless the Bulldogs qualify for a bowl for the fourth consecutive season. "Damien took all the reps in practice," Mullen said. "I trust him."
LINE: Mississippi opened as a three-point fave but has been bet up to -4 1/2. The over/under is up from 52 to 53 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s with clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Rebels are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 November games.
* Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
NCAAB
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-13)
Painter keeps waiting for 7-footer A.J. Hammons to dominate a game this season, but other than some blocked shots here and there, the sophomore center has been pretty quiet, even against marginal competition. Hammons showed his offensive abilities at times last season, including a 30-point game against then-No. 2 Indiana followed by a 19-point, 13-rebound performance three nights later against Northwestern.
Le’Bryan Nash continues to find ways to get to the free throw line and don't be surprised if he tries to bait Hammons into early foul trouble. Nash has taken more than 100 free throws in each of the last two seasons and could become the fourth player in program history to take triple-digit free throws in three straight seasons. He’s averaging five trips to the line this fall and has bumped his percentage to 84 after shooting 74.1 last season.
LINE: Oklahoma State is installed as a 13-point fave.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.
* Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Oklahoma State's last six neutral-site games.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Kansas Jayhawks (-12.5)
The Demon Deacons are off to a sizzling start, having won their first five games by an average of nearly 19 points. They're led by sophomore guard Codi Miller-McIntyre (18.6 points, 4.8 assists), who shot just 3-of-10 in Wake Forest's win over The Citadel but racked up a season-best eight assists. Second-year forward Devin Thomas is also off to a strong start, averaging 14.4 points and a team-best 11.6 rebounds.
Most of the early-season focus has been on Jayhawks freshman Andrew Wiggins - and the standout Canadian hasn't disappointed, averaging 16.8 points along with 6.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals. But he has had plenty of help to date, as forward Perry Ellis (16.8 points, seven rebounds) and center Joel Embiid (8.8 points, eight rebounds, 1.5 blocks) have also contributed to Kansas' fast start. The Jayhawks are shooting 56.8 percent as a team.
LINE: Kansas is listed as a 12 1/2-point fave.
TRENDS:
* Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. Big 12 opponents.
* Jayhawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win.
* Over is 11-2 in Wake Forest's last 13 neutral-site games.Comment
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Thanksgiving NCAAF action: What bettors need to know
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns (-4, 66)
Texas Tech hopes its first Thanksgiving Day game will snap its November woes. The Red Raiders visit Texas on a four-game losing streak and a 1-10 mark in November during the past three seasons. The host Longhorns have a 58-24-3 record on Thanksgiving and have beaten the Red Raiders in 12 of the last 14 meetings.
The Texas secondary is in the middle of a tough stretch, facing Oklahoma State, Texas Tech's NCAA-leading passing game and Baylor in consecutive contests. The injury-depleted Longhorns will also be without suspended receiver Daje Johnson on Thursday. The Red Raiders have struggled to stop the run during its slide, allowing nearly 300 yards per game.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.
LINE: The line has stayed steady with Texas favored by 4 at home. The total is currently at 66.
WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the high 40s.
ABOUT TEXAS TECH (7-4, 5-6 ATS): "We've just got to find a way to (get stops)," coach Kliff Kingsbury said during his Monday press conference. "The missed tackles was concerning and we got back to the basics of that (during the bye week)." The Red Raiders, trying to avoid their second five-game losing streak in three years, lead the country in passing at 400.2 yards. Tight end Jace Amaro leads the team with 92 catches for 1,157 yards and is on pace to set the NCAA record for single-season receptions and yards by a tight end (Rice's James Casey had 111 catches for 1,329 yards in 2008).
ABOUT TEXAS (7-3, 5-5 ATS): Malcolm Brown (515 yards, nine touchdowns) and Joe Bergeron (240 yards, three TDs) have carried the load for Texas - which has the league's third-best running attack at 192.7 yards - after leading rusher Johnathan Gray (780 yards, four TDs) was lost to an Achilles injury two games ago. The Longhorns' defensive turnaround has Texas leading the Big 12 in total defense with 349.6 yards allowed in conference games. "(Texas Tech is) moving the ball so well," coach Mack Brown said. "It will really be a test for our secondary here at the end of the year. We're getting into the tempo (of) full-speed ahead Big 12 offenses."
TRENDS:
* Texas Tech is 2-5 ATS in its last seven meetings in Texas.
* Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 7-0 in Texas Tech's last seven road games versus a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 8-1 in Texas' last nine games in November.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Texas is 21-5 under Brown following a regular-season open date.
2. Texas Tech, which enters the week just ahead of Fresno State (399.9) in passing yards, is seeking to lead the country in passing for the seventh time since 2002.
3. Brown announced QB David Ash (concussion) would not return this season and the junior would seek a medical redshirt in the hopes of returning in the spring with two years of eligibility.
Mississippi Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+3, 52)
The battle for the Egg Bowl will return to Thanksgiving night for the first time in 10 years as Mississippi travels to take on Mississippi State Thursday. The Bulldogs are looking for their fourth victory in the last five meetings with the Rebels, who hold a considerable 61-42-6 edge in the series. "I'm excited to play this game on Thanksgiving night," Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. "My first experience with the Egg Bowl. I think it's a neat deal, and a really neat opportunity for us."
In addition to capturing the Egg Bowl, Mississippi can prevent the Bulldogs from becoming bowl-eligible. Hugh Freeze's team is already assured of a bowl game for the second straight season and are eyeing a .500 record in the SEC. "Thanksgiving week brings the Egg Bowl, one of the most historic and greatest rivalries in college football," Freeze said. "We know the task at hand is going to be a great challenge. Certainly we're excited about getting down there and playing."
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: The line opened at +3 and now Mississippi State are 4.5-point home dogs. The total opened at 52 and has been bet up to 53.5.
WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the high 20s.
ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (7-4, 6-5 ATS): Quarterback Bo Wallace battled flu-like symptoms in a 24-10 loss to Missouri, which is one of four ranked teams to beat the Rebels this season. Freeze was unable to update the condition of the Wallace, who has completed 64.4 percent of his passes this season for 2,908 and 17 touchdowns, but the junior was at practice Monday. "There won't be any effect at all," said Wallace, who threw five touchdowns in last year's Egg Bowl. "Tomorrow (Tuesday) I will be almost 100 percent."
ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (5-6, 6-5 ATS): Damien Williams is expected to start at quarterback Thursday after scoring the winning touchdown in last week's victory over Arkansas in relief of starter Tyler Russell, who injured his shoulder. Dak Prescott leads the team in passing and rushing, but won't be available unless the Bulldogs qualify for a bowl for the fourth consecutive season. "Damien took all the reps in practice," Mullen said. "I trust him."
TRENDS:
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Mississippi's last six games following an ATS loss.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. This will be the 99th consecutive season the teams will meet.
2. Mississippi State OL Gabe Jackson is one behind Georgia's Aaron Murray for the most starts among active players with 50.
3. The touchdown for Williams against Arkansas was the first of his career.Comment
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Thankgiving Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Packers at Lions (-6½, 50)
Green Bay: 5-5-1 SU, 5-6 ATS
Detroit: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS
The NFC North race is turning into a battle of attrition heading into the final month of the season. The Packers looked to be the team to beat until quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a left collarbone injury four weeks, as Green Bay is winless in the month of November. Green Bay is going through quarterbacks like donuts at this point as one-time Packer Matt Flynn, re-signed last week after spending time in Oakland and Buffalo this season, came in relief for Scott Tolzien.
Flynn helped engineer a comeback as the Packers trailed the Vikings, 23-7 at home, leading Green Bay to 16 unanswered points and the game to overtime. However, both teams exchanged field goals in overtime and the contest finished in a 26-26 tie, as the Vikings cashed tickets in the underdog role. Once at 5-2, the Packers have slipped to 5-5-1, but can regain first place with a Thanksgiving victory at Detroit.
The Lions stubbed their toe in Sunday's 24-21 home defeat to the suddenly surging Buccaneers to drop their second straight game. Tampa Bay took control thanks to a pair of huge plays, an interception return for a touchdown prior to halftime and an 85-yard scoring strike from Mike Glennon to Tiquan Underwood to start the fourth quarter. Matt Stafford threw four interceptions for Detroit, who has failed to cover its last three games at Ford Field.
In the last meeting at Lambeau Field in October, Green Bay silenced Detroit's offense in a 22-9 triumph to cash as 10-point favorites. The Packers' offense put up 449 yards, including 99 on the ground from running back Eddie Lacy. The victory was the fifth in a row in the series for the Packers, while Green Bay enters Thursday's action with three victories in the last four visits to Ford Field.
Rodgers likely won't suit up for the fourth straight game, meaning Flynn will make his first start for the Packers since Week 17 of the 2011 season. In that start, Flynn faced this same Lions' squad, tossing six touchdown passes and throwing for 480 yards in a 45-41 triumph which eventually got him a nice contract with Seattle.
Raiders at Cowboys (-9½, 45½)
Oakland: 4-7 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
Dallas: 6-5 SU, 8-3 ATS
Just when you think the Cowboys are cooked, they pull off a huge divisional victory on the road. That was the case this past Sunday, as Dallas held off New York, 24-21 to cash outright as 2½-point road underdogs. The Cowboys built a 21-6 advantage before the Giants rallied for 15 unanswered points to even the game at 21-21, but Dan Bailey's 35-yard field goal at the gun gave Dallas the road triumph. Now, the Cowboys return home seeking their third consecutive victory at AT&T Stadium.
The Raiders couldn't capitalize off a road victory at Houston two weeks ago as Oakland was tripped up at home by Tennessee. The Titans won a back-and-forth affair at the Black Hole by edging the Raiders, 23-19 thanks to a Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass in the closing seconds to Kendall Wright. Former Penn State quarterback Matt McGloin started for the second straight week for Oakland, throwing for 260 yards, but the Raiders held the ball for just 24 minutes.
The last time these teams met up, it happened on Thanksgiving in 2009, as the Cowboys cruised past the Raiders, 24-7 to cash as 13½-point home favorites. Tony Romo tossed a pair of touchdown passes, while Dallas rushed for 195 yards, even though none of the running backs who played in that game are currently on the roster.
The Cowboys have struggled in the past as a home favorite, but Dallas has turned things around this season with a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark when laying points in Arlington. However, Dallas looks to turn things around against the AFC West, as the Cowboys have already lost to the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers, which actually doesn't hurt them for tiebreaker purposes in the NFC playoff hunt.
Steelers at Ravens (-3, 40½)
Pittsburgh: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS
Baltimore: 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS
Following an 0-4 start, the Steelers have woken up and won five of their past seven games to forge back into the AFC playoff race. The first five spots in the AFC seem to be spoken for, but that final position is up for grabs with six teams sitting at 5-6 heading into this week's action. Pittsburgh or Baltimore can get a leg up with a win on Thursday night, as both clubs are coming off dominating performances this past week.
The Steelers' defense kept the Browns out of the end zone until the final minutes of a 27-11 rout of Cleveland on Sunday, the second divisional victory for Pittsburgh this season. Mike Tomlin's team has won and covered three straight games, but the Steelers own a 2-4 record away from Heinz Field, which includes losses to the Raiders and Vikings.
The Ravens shut down the anemic Jets' offense in a 19-3 home triumph as four-point favorites, while forcing three turnovers. Even though Baltimore reached the end zone just once, the Ravens improved to 4-1 at home, while cashing the 'under' in all five contests at M&T Bank Stadium this season.
The last four meetings between these teams have been decided by three points each, including a 19-16 victory by the Steelers last month. In fact, eight of the previous 10 matchups between these divisional rivals has seen a three-point decision, as this line sits at three heading into Thursday.Comment
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Joe Gavazzi
Thursday, November 28th NFL
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6) 12:30 ET FOX
5* Detroit Lions
QB Rodgers slated to miss one more game with QB Flynn starting in his place. Without Rodgers, Green Bay has gone 0-4 ATS failing by 45 points to the number with a -3 net TO margin. That sets up a viable revenge option for Detroit who lost earlier to Green Bay 22-9. That dropped Detroit to 0-5 SU ATS in this series. But Detroit was pathetic on this field in their loss to TBay last week. Although they out-rushed the Bucs 104-22 and out-gained them 390-229, they were -5 net TOs including 4 INTs by QB Stafford. It was yet another meltdown by a team who has not played to potential. In fact, Detroit has now failed to the number 5 consecutive times by a total of 35 points, due in large part to a -12 net TO margin in that time-frame. Nonetheless, favor them for the bounce back after embarrassing themselves on their home field last week. But, before you take off the rubber band, note that Detroit is 0-9 SU, 0-8-1 ATS on Thanksgiving.Comment
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Sports Insights
NFL Best Bets 33-22 +8.59 units
Game Time (ET) Play Best Line
12:30 PM 303 Play on GB 6.5-105Comment
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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NFL -
"Taste on my Turkey Weekend"
- Free Member Play
9-UNIT "LECTRA-HYDRA"
STEELERS / RAVENS UNDER 41 (5:30pm)
*All Lines from bookmaker.eu 11/26/13 11:11pm
**All times PacificComment
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CKO
OVER (46) in the Oakland-Dallas Game
—Both teams having pass defense problems; Raiders getting decent QBing from poised Penn State rookie Matt McGloinComment
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Victor King's Totals Tip Sheet
2* OVER Dallas/OaklandComment
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Docs
2 Unit Play. #6/#310 Take Texas Longhorns -4.5 over Texas Tech Red Raiders (Thursday 7:30 pm Fox Sports 1) Texas Tech has fallen apart of late, losing 4 straight games, and they close out the season in Austin. During this losing streak, the Red Raiders have been giving up over 50 points per game, and that includes 49 to Kansas State, a team with very little offensive firepower. Texas still has a chance at winning the Big 12, and expect them to control this game for 60 minutes. Texas Tech is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games played during the month of November. Texas is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home in their previous game. Texas has the size and strength to muscle around Texas Tech.Comment
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Docs NFL
2 Unit Play. #11/#307 Take Pittsburgh Steelers +3 over Baltimore Ravens (Thursday 8:30 pm NBC) The Steelers and Ravens always seem to play these games close to the vest, with a field goal normally being the difference. Pittsburgh has rebounded nicely after a slow start to the season and gotten themselves back into the Wild Card race. Like the Miami - NY Jets game, this is an elimination for the loser. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger is better than Joe Flacco.Comment
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2Halves2Win: (GAME: 1*): Cowboys -7.5 (-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)Comment
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