11-28-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Texas -4 3.3* play (By Freddy Wills) 2x NCAAF Champ!
I will take the home favorite in this game. Not only is Mack Brown 7-0 vs. Tech at home, but he's 21-5 following an open date. I think after getting beat by Oklahoma State it's exactly what this team needed. Now it will be back to the drawing board and back to the game plan that got them in position to contend in the Big 12. That game plan is running the football and allowing Case McCoy to be a game manager that will take some shots down field to keep a defense honest. McCoy had 3 INT's in his last game and when this Texas team does not turn the ball over they win games. It helps that the Red Raiders only have 7 interceptions on the year while being -12 in TO margin. You just can't back a team that turns the ball over 28 times on the season. The Longhorns meanwhile are +7 in TO margin with 23 forced and it will be a major advantage for them in this game.
More importantly Texas can get back to what it does best which is running the ball. They are 5-0 when they rush for more than 4 yards per carry which seems like a given on Thursday night. The Tech defense has been decimated in the last 4 games allowing more than 5 ypc in every one and over 275 yards rushing in every game. They just are not very good at stopping the run and there is no way around it. Texas has been cold at times running the ball but they average over 5 yards per carry at home. They struggled in 3 of their last 4 games because they played top 25 defenses. TCU is ranked 13th in ypc run defense, Oklahoma State 18th, and West Virginia is in the top 25 in run defense in their own building allowing just 3.5 ypc which is where Texas played them. Tech comes into this game ranked 82nd nationally and is allowing 5.8 ypc in their last 3 games overall.
Now Tech's passing offense is elite, however it's only because they throw so much. Tech's OL continues to shuffle guys and will be challenged by Texas' defensive front which is ranked 11th in sack %. They are also 26th in opponent QB rating and 49th in yards/attempt. Texas can be inconsistent and have to come up with a way to stop TE Jake Amaro, but with the extra time and Mack Brown being a very good coach when it seems like the world is against him always seems to come up with a win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Sports Nostradamus

CFB Texas Tech

CBB
St Joe's
Kansas
Missouri

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE SPORTS---Randy Rose
Your Pick: Green Bay Packers +7 (-135) Risking: 5.00 Unit(s)
Your Pick: Oakland Raiders +10.5 (-135) Risking: 5.00 Unit(s)
Your Pick: Texas -4.5 (-110) Risking: 5.00 Unit(s)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sharp sports has oak/dal over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joey Cassano

Texas tech/Texas over 66.5
mizzu/AM over 66
toledo -8
clemson +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

9* Texas -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the stats: Thanksgiving Day football trends
By MARC LAWRENCE

Welcome to the special edition Thanksgiving edition of Inside The Stats. Let’s take a look into some of the holiday football games on tap on this years Turkey Day card.

Wishing and hoping

It’s been a long time between drinks of victory water for the Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

When Detroit hosts Green Bay this Thursday it will mark the 44th consecutive Thanksgiving Day home game fro the Lions, where they are 20-23 SU since 1970.

More recently, however, the Lions have lost their roar going 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in these games since 2004.

Meanwhile, the Packers have won and covered each of their last three Thanksgiving Day performances, all at the expense of the Lions.

Detroit’s last Turkey day win came November 27, 2003 when they upset Green Bay, 22-14, as a 7-point home dog.

Cowboy steak

Dallas is famous for more than the grassy knoll where JFK was shot 50 years ago.

Like the Lions, the Cowboys have long been a Thanksgiving Day fixture as a host since 1978 where they’ve gone 21-14 SU/ATS, including 14-5 SU/ATS of late when playing off a win.

The Boys have been particularly tough on losing teams, going 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS.

Dallas did lose in this role last year, when it fell, 38-31 to the 4-6 Redskins.

Four times a charm

AFC North division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh will each be looking to win the turkey bone when they each take the field for only the fourth time on Thanksgiving in their franchise history.

The Steelers have yet to have their wish come true, going 0-3 SU/ATS in these games.

The Ravens are just 1-2 SU/ATS on Turkey Day, with the home team in their games a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS.

Statwise

The Lions dropped their last two games but won the stats in both contest. Detroit is winning the yardage stats an average 121 yards per game since their seventh game of the season.

The Cowboys are being outgained a whopping 153 yards per game since their seventh game of the season.

Texas tumbleweed

After a surprising 7-0 start, Texas Tech first-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury became the toast of the town in Lubbock. But following a sobering 0-4 SU/ATS run, requests for photo ops with Coach K have dropped significantly.

We’d love to tell you how teams on a four-game losing streak fare if they opened the season with seven straight wins but the fact is no team has been in this spot in the history of our database dating back to 1980.

However, we do know that Texas head coach Mack Brown returns home off the worst home loss of his career - a 25-point whipping to Oklahoma State.

Stat of the Day

Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze is 20-1 SU and 16-2 ATS in his career versus .500 or less opponents.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROOT

BONUS GAME-----DALLAS COWBOYS


MILLIONAIRES----DETROIT LIONS

_______________________________

NO LIMIT -----MISSISSIPPI STATE

Ole Miss dropped out the top 25 this week after losing to The SEC east leading Missouri Tigers last weekend by a 24-10 count. The Rebels are 7-4 overall on the year and 3-4 in the SEC. Rebels now travel to Mississippi State for a Turkey Day showdown. Annual battle for bragging rights for the State of Mississippi is more commonly known as the Egg Bowl. Head to head the Bulldogs own a 3-1 record last 4 years but Ole Miss won last year 41-24 win at Ole Miss. It looks like revenge is in the cards today for Mississippi St. Miss St is the Bulldog team that is coming off a thrilling 7 point overtime win against Arkansas last week. That win and those emotions will be on the field for this game. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. TAKE MISSISSIPPI STATE

______________________________

PINNACLE---BALTIMORE RAVENS

What a huge divisional game this is for two teams both supporting identical 5-6 records. The Pittsburg Steelers will roll into to M&T Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens. After getting off to a terrible start the Steelers have picked up a little steam. The team is coming off of a convincing win over the Cleveland Browns. Steelers quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, threw for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. Steelers’ wide receiver, Antonio Brown, added 6 receptions for 92 yards to help push the Steelers to victory. The 27-11 win gave Roethlisberger a 16-1 record against the Browns. The Ravens are coming of a sound victory against the New York Jets. The Ravens have had their share of ups and downs this season, but they continue to fight for their playoff lives. Wide receiver, Jacoby Jones, had a big play day, with 103 yards receiving on only four receptions. The 19-3 win kept the Ravens mathematically in the playoff hunt, while giving the Jets their first back-to-back losses all year.Flacco needs to have Rice come up big in order to freeze the blitz against an average offensive line. But, with this such a huge rivalry game and such an important game for each team, the crowd and pride play the role as the 12th man. TAKE BALTIMORE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast Powersweep Magazine
4* Missouri
3* Colorado St.
2* Ohio St.
2* ULm
Underdog Pittsburgh (College)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 13

Thursday's games

Packers (5-5-1) @ Lions (6-5)—Immense pressure on Detroit here; not only have Lions lost last nine Thanksgiving games, four of last five Turkey Day losses were by 12+ points. Lions lost 15 of last 16 series games, with only win a 7-3 in ’10 when Rodgers sat out (sound familiar???). Packers are 0-3-1 with Rodgers out of lineup; Flynn came off bench to rally Pack to 26-all tie vs Vikings last week, after they trailed 23-7 in 4th quarter. Flynn has only started handful of NFL games, but he led Pack to 45-41 win over Lions on frigid day at Lambeau two years ago. Detroit was -5 in turnovers and had punt blocked in last week’s home loss to Bucs, yet they still only lost by a FG; Lions lost first meeting with Pack 22-9 (+6.5) in Week 5 when Megatron was late scratch- they were outgained 449-286 that day, with both teams scoring only one TD. NFC North divisional home favorites are 3-3-1 vs spread this season; Lions failed to cover last three home games. Pack is 0-3 as an underdog this season. Six of last eight Packer games stayed under total; four of last six Detroit games went over.

Raiders (4-7) @ Cowboys (6-5)— Oakland lost in last 0:10 at home last week; they’re 5-1 vs spread in game following a loss this year, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4 points, with win at skidding Houston. Last three Raider games were all decided by 5 or less points. This is only second home game in last eight weeks for Cowboys, who had big divisional win Sunday in Swamp; Dallas is 3-1 as home favorite this year, after being 3-17 in Garrett’s first three years. Cowboys are 3-2 SU at home, winning by 5-24-15-4 points, with only loss 51-48 shootout with Denver. Raiders turned ball over 10 times (-4) in Pryor’s last four starts; they’ve turned it over only twice (even) in McGloin’s two starts. Hard to believe they’re interested in McGloin as long-term starter, but he hasn’t been awful in his first two NFL starts. Oakland is 6-4 in this series, winning three of four visits here, with only loss 24-7 in last visit, in ’09. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; AFC West underdogs are 8-3, 5-1 on road. Over is 3-0-1 in last four Raider games, 4-0 in last four Dallas tilts.

Steelers (5-6) @ Ravens (5-6)—Resurgent Pitt won five of last seven games after 0-4 start; they beat Ravens 19-16 (-1.5) at home in Week 7, outrushing Ravens 141-82 (season high in RY for Pitt) in game with two TDs, seven FGs. Steelers are 8-5 in last 13 series games, 3-2 in last five here; they’re 2-3 in true road games, winning at Jets/Browns, losing other three by 10-3-24 points. Ravens are 4-1 at home, with only loss 19-17 to Packers; six of their last eight games were decided by 6 or less points, with a 7th game decided by six- they’re 3-2 as a favorite. After scoring 19 or less points in five of first seven games (11 TDs/78 drives), Steelers averaged 32 ppg in last four (12 TDs/48 drives); if Pitt makes playoffs, could see Big Ben getting MVP votes- they turned ball over only once (+7) in last three games, after being -11 in first eight. Ravens allowed only one offensive TD on 22 drives in last two games. Home teams won/covered seven of eight AFC North games this year. Five of last seven Steeler games, seven of last ten Baltimore games stayed under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Thanksgiving betting: Packers at Lions
By SPORTSDIRECT INC. STAFF

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6, 50)

The Green Bay Packers have been in a tailspin since losing Aaron Rodgers to a broken collarbone, and they might have to survive another game without their star quarterback when they travel to Detroit for a Thanksgiving showdown with the Lions. The Packers need a win to stay afloat in the NFC North after a 26-26 tie against Minnesota on Sunday. Green Bay is one win behind the Bears and Lions, who wasted a chance to take the lead by losing 24-21 to Tampa Bay.

Rodgers hasn't officially been ruled out yet, but with a short week it seems Matt Flynn will get a chance to deliver Green Bay's first win since Week 8. Flynn came off the bench to pass for 218 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings, rallying the Packers from a 23-7 deficit. The Lions know Flynn all too well - he threw six touchdown passes against them in the 2011 regular-season finale.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET Fox.

LINE: The line has held steady at the Lions -6. The total hasn't moved from 50.

WEATHER: N/A.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+5) - Detroit (-3) + home field (-3) = Detroit -11

ABOUT THE PACKERS (5-5-1, 5-6 ATS): Green Bay's four-game winless streak can't be blamed entirely on the quarterback situation, as the defense has
allowed 409.5 yards per game over the past four contests compared to 331.1 in the first seven. The Packers also are minus-3 in turnover margin over that span, though they did not have a giveaway against Minnesota. Rookie running back Eddie Lacy has been the workhorse for Green Bay with Rodgers out, and he gained 158 yards on 31 touches against Minnesota.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-5, 5-6 ATS): Detroit has been hurt by self-inflicted wounds, committing eight turnovers in back-to-back losses since seizing control of the division with a win over the Bears in Week 10. Turnovers are the only thing slowing down the Lions' offense, which ranks sixth in total yards (412.1) and third in passing (308.4). The defense has held five straight opponents under 100 yards rushing but has struggled against the pass.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Detroit.
* Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Detroit.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.


EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lacy has recorded 22 or more carries in seven of the last eight games, averaging 94.4 rushing yards during that span.

2. Detroit has lost its Thanksgiving Day game the last nine years. It's last win was a 22-14 triumph over Green Bay in 2003.

3. Johnson has 861 receiving yards over the past five contests, the most in a five-game span in NFL history.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Thanksgiving betting: Raiders at Cowboys

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 46.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are tied atop the NFC East and can keep pressure on the competition with a win over the visiting Oakland Raiders on Thursday. The Cowboys go into their traditional Thanksgiving contest tied with Philadelphia for the division lead and riding momentum of a 24-21 road win over the New York Giants. The Raiders gave up a late touchdown in a 23-19 loss to Tennessee to fall one game behind a group of six teams tied for the final AFC wild card.

Dallas plays three of its last five games at home - including a season-ending showdown with the Eagles - where it is 4-1 with the only loss a 51-48 shootout with Denver. Oft-criticized quarterback Tony Romo boasts a 105.7 rating at home compared to an 89.7 mark on the road. Undrafted rookie Matt McGloin will make his third straight start at quarterback for Oakland, earning another turn in favor of now-healthy Terrelle Pryor after passing for 457 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in the past two games.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Cowboys opened as 9.5-point home faves and have been bet to -10. The total opened at 45.5 and has moved up to 46.5.

WEATHER: N/A.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+5.5) - Dallas (-3) + home field (-3) = Dallas -11.5

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (4-7, 6-4-1 ATS): McGloin has done a credible job leading the offense considering running back Darren McFadden remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and receiver Denarius Moore (shoulder) sat out Sunday. The Raiders rank fifth in the league in rushing, but that's skewed by the 504 yards Pryor has racked up in eight games. Oakland's defense has to do a better job of getting off the field after allowing scoring drives of 16 and 14 plays on Tennessee's final two possessions.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-5, 8-3 ATS): Dallas limped into its bye week after a 49-17 loss at New Orleans, but Romo's late heroics against the Giants might have saved the Cowboys' season. The offense is still inconsistent and leans too heavily on the pass, but having DeMarco Murray back to full strength should help get the running game going. Dallas allows 432.2 yards per game - most in the league - and gave up 202 rushing yards to New York in an otherwise solid performance.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-2 in the Raiders last 10 games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last seven versus a team with a losing record.


EXTRA POINTS:

1. Romo's 11 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime are the most in the NFL over the past three seasons.

2. Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski is 15-of-22 on field-goal attempts after going 62-of-69 the previous two seasons, and he is 11-of-15 from inside 50 yards compared to 49-of-50 from that range the past two years.

3. Dallas CB Morris Claiborne aggravated his hamstring injury against the Giants and is not likely to play versus Oakland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Thanksgiving betting: Steelers at Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 40)

The Baltimore Ravens appeared to be losing a battle to a Super Bowl hangover while the Pittsburgh Steelers merely appeared punch drunk, but the fierce rivals have each turned around their seasons to move into playoff contention. Pittsburgh goes for its fourth straight victory when it visits Baltimore on Thursday night in an AFC North clash that could have major postseasons ramifications. The Steelers edged the visiting Ravens 19-16 on Oct. 20 on a field goal as time expired.

Pittsburgh's 0-4 start was a daunting enough obstacle to overcome, but a 55-31 shellacking at New England on Nov. 3 appeared to be the knockout blow for any playoffs hopes. The Steelers rebounded with three consecutive wins to join the Ravens in a tie for second in the division. The Ravens endured three straight losses - by a total of 11 points - before beating AFC North leader Cincinnati on Nov. 10, and they bounced back from another narrow defeat in Chicago by dominating the New York Jets on Sunday.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The line opened at -1 and has jumped as high as -3 before settling at -2.5. The total opened at 41 and has been bet down to 40.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high 20s with a 7 mph wind blowing towards the East endzone.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (0) - Baltimore (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Baltimore -1.5

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-6, 5-6 ATS): Pittsburgh was held under 20 points in five of its first seven games but has come alive offensively during its winning streak, averaging 29 points. Ben Roethlisberger has cut down his interceptions and thrown seven touchdowns versus one pick while being sacked only once in the three-game run after getting taken down 35 times in the first nine contests. Antonio Brown has four TDs in his last four games and became the fourth wideout in franchise history to reach 80 catches, while a rejuvenated defense is allowing an average of 16 points since the beating by New England.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (5-6, 6-5 ATS): Quarterback Joe Flacco became the league's highest-paid player after delivering a Super Bowl championship to Baltimore last season but he has already thrown a career-high 14 interceptions, including six in the past four games. Ray Rice failed to build on his season-high 131-yard performance on Nov. 17, managing only 30 yards on 16 carries Sunday to mark the seventh time he has been held to 36 yards or fewer. The defense allowed its lowest point total since December 2009 by registering three sacks, forcing three turnovers and limiting New York to 220 yards of offense.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Baltimore.
* Steelers are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 7-0 in Ravens last seven home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams have split the last 10 meetings - with eight of them decided by three points.

2. Roethlisberger is 37-11 in his career against division opponents.

3. The Ravens have recorded a sack in 22 consecutive games, matching a franchise record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LA Syndicate

NFL
Under Raiders
Under Ravens

CBB
Washington State
San Diego State
UCLA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

NFL
Lions
Ravens

CBB
Creighton
Missouri