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Louisville at Cincinnati: What bettors need to know
Louisville Cardinals at Cincinnati Bearcats (+3.5, 51)
Cincinnati looks to keep its faint BCS bowl hopes alive Thursday when the No. 23 Bearcats host 16th-ranked Louisville, which has recorded back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in school history. Cincinnati's hopes of receiving the American Athletic Conference’s automatic bowl berth hinges on a win over Louisville and having Southern Methodist defeat Central Florida on Saturday. If that happens, the league’s bid will go to whichever team between Cincinnati and Central Florida is ranked higher in the final BCS standings.
Louisville appears headed for the Russell Athletic Bowl on Dec. 28 after having its BCS dreams dashed with a 38-35 loss to Central Florida on Oct. 18. The Cardinals have won four straight since the disappointing loss, and are eager to maintain control of the Keg of Nails rivalry trophy. “We’ll walk into a sellout and a hostile environment,” Louisville coach Charlie Strong said. “We need to control their crowd with our defense. We can't allow them to get out and have a fast start."
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 40s with a 59 percent chance of rain and winds blowing NNW crossfield at 7 mph.
LINE: Louisville opened -3.5 and has remained steady. The total opened as high as 51.5 and dropped to 51 points.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (10-1, 6-1 American Athletic Conference, 4-7 ATS): Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been named one of 10 finalists for the Manning Award after throwing for 3,268 yards and 25 touchdowns, with only three interceptions. Louisville's defense, ranked second in the country while allowing 242.5 yards per game, forced its 24th turnover in a 24-17 victory over Memphis on Nov. 23. The unit is led by linebacker Preston Brown (team-high 83 tackles) and defensive end Marcus Smith, who leads the Cardinals with 12.5 sacks.
ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-2, 6-1, 6-5 ATS): The Bearcats are bowl-eligible for the seventh time in eight years and carry a six-game winning streak into Thursday’s showdown. Quarterback Brendon Kay recorded his fourth 300-yard passing game of the season Nov. 23, when Cincinnati posted 573 yards of total offense in a 24-17 victory at Houston. Defensive end Silverberry Mouhon has 8.5 sacks and linebacker Nick Temple has 11.0 tackles for a loss to lead the Bearcats, who rank eighth nationally in total defense at 302.4 yards per game.
TRENDS:
* Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Cincinnati.
* Favorite is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Louisville starting safety Calvin Pryor is expected to return Thursday after missing one game due to suspension for violating a team rule.
2. Cincinnati leads the series 30-22-1, but Louisville won last year’s contest 34-31 in overtime.
3. Louisville has outscored its opponents 82-6 in the first quarter. -
NBA TNT doubleheader: Knicks at Nets, Heat at Bulls
New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets (-1, 189)
When the 2013-14 NBA schedule was released months ago, an early December meeting between the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks looked like a sure bet to be a battle between two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Instead, the Knicks will look to snap a nine-game slide when they visit the disappointing Nets on Thursday. Brooklyn is fighting through a series of injuries and turmoil on the coaching staff while dropping eight of its last 10.
New York is just one loss away from matching the worst record in the NBA, and star Carmelo Anthony is not happy about it. “We are the laughingstock of the league right now,” he told reporters. “It’s nothing to hide. We are.” The Nets would be the laughingstock if not for the Knicks and are hoping to snap a five-game home losing streak on Thursday.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Knicks (-2.7) - Nets (-2.5) + Home Court (-3.0) = Nets +2.8
ABOUT THE KNICKS (3-13, 4-12 ATS): New York is without Tyson Chandler (broken leg) and is getting little from anyone other than Anthony. Coach Mike Woodson does not believe his players have quit on him and likes the way his team looks in practice. “Right now I think the spirits are still high,” Woodson told ESPN radio in New York. “Practice was spirited (on Wednesday). I think our guys are committed. They haven’t quit.” Anthony did not sound positively spirited when he told reporters, “Do I like being laughed at? Hell no. I don’t like that feeling.”
ABOUT THE NETS (5-13, 6-12 ATS): Brooklyn coach Jason Kidd played for the Knicks last season when the team won 54 games to take the Atlantic Division but is now wearing a suit on the sidelines and making some tough decisions about his staff, including demoting veteran coach Lawrence Frank. That move did not help much on Tuesday, as the Nets were blown out 111-87 in Denver with the former top assistant off the bench. Brooklyn is without Paul Pierce (broken hand), Deron Williams (ankle), Andrei Kirilenko (back) and Jason Terry (knee) while Kevin Garnett is averaging a career low in scoring (6.5 points) and Brook Lopez is seeing constant double teams.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Knicks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Brooklyn.
* Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic.
* Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. New York rookie SG Tim Hardaway Jr. is 7-for-11 from 3-point range in the last two games.
2. The teams split the four meetings last season, with the margin of victory an average of 6.8 points.
3. Brooklyn G Joe Johnson is averaging 24 points on 17-for-30 shooting over the last two contests.
Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (+4.5, 189)
A meeting between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls generally produces some sizzle, whether or not Derrick Rose is involved. But Rose’s latest injury has sent the Bulls into a tailspin, and they will be trying to win for just the second time in eight games when they host the Heat on Thursday. Miami had a 10-game winning streak come to an end on Tuesday and is opening up a four-game trip at Chicago that finishes with a stop at East-leading Indiana.
The Bulls remained one of the strongest defensive teams in the league with Rose out for the 2012-13 season but are struggling on that end since the latest season-ending knee injury to the former MVP. Chicago showed some fight in a 131-128 triple-overtime home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday but were burned on the perimeter, where they allowed the Pelicans to knock down 11 3-pointers. “Our defense is not there,” Luol Deng told the team’s website. “Especially we are not covering the (3-point) line well. That’s hurting us.”
TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT, Sun Sports (Miami)
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Heat (-14.5) - Bulls (-7.0) + Home Court (-3.0) = Bulls +4.5
ABOUT THE HEAT (14-4, 9-9 ATS): Miami is among the league leaders in 3-point efficiency, knocking down 41.1 percent from long range, and rattled in 11-of-20 from beyond the arc in a 107-95 home triumph over the Bulls in the season opener on Oct. 29. The Heat were just 9-for-28 from 3-point range on Tuesday, however, as Shane Battier, James Jones and Chris Bosh combined to go 0-for-9. LeBron James is fighting through a back injury but is still shooting 57.8 percent from the field in his last three games.
ABOUT THE BULLS (7-9, 6-10 ATS): Despite the loss of Rose and the recent swoon, coach Tom Thibodeau is taking a positive approach. “I don’t see anyone hanging their head,” Thibodeau told ESPN Chicago. “(Rose’s) not going to be here, we know that. We’ve got more than enough here. Just concentrate on what we have to concentrate on.” Deng is stepping up with 27.4 points on 54.8 percent shooting in the last five games and Taj Gibson is coming off a career-best 26 points and 14 rebounds in Monday’s loss.
TRENDS:
* Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.
BUZZER BEATERS:
1. Heat G Dwyane Wade (soreness) sat out Tuesday’s game and is day-to-day.
2. Miami has taken five straight in the series going back to last spring’s Eastern Conference semifinals.
3. Chicago F Carlos Boozer is struggling to 7.3 points on 33.3 percent shooting in the last three contests.Comment
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Who's the worst NBA bet in New York: Knicks or Nets?
Considered to be an emerging rivalry, the New York Knicks and Brooklyn Nets have quickly turned into two of the most disappointing teams in the NBA, both in terms of wins and success against the spread.
Brooklyn’s blowout loss at home to Denver Tuesday pushed the two franchises’ combined ATS record to a poor 10-14. Both are missing key starters and on and off-court drama is giving the New York media plenty of fodder to make things worse.
Before these two battle for Big Apple bragging rights Thursday night, we ask which team is the worst bet in New York: Knicks or Nets?
Bad at the Barclays, Mayhem at MSG
Brooklyn's new digs in the Barclays Center have proven no refuge for the Nets. They are a matching 2-5 in the win column and ATS. With the team falling further and further behind the pack, that home-court advantage the team was expecting with a rebrand may fade with a lack of excitement in the building.
The Knicks are even more pathetic at home, going 0-8 ATS. With the Knicks 4-4 away from Madison Square Garden, they’re at least treading water on the road. But both of these teams’ home records are head scratching.
Coaching chaos
Brooklyn faces a more uphill climb than the Knicks, based on their coaching situation. Head coach Jason Kidd has never coached and is just one year removed from playing point guard for the Knicks. He recently reduced former head coach Lawrence Frank's role after the two reportedly got into an argument.
While New York isn't short of its own drama with Carmelo Anthony spouting off in head coach Mike Woodson's huddle, they at least have the advantage of having a unit that has turned it around before.
Injuries
Both teams have lost their cornerstones to injury, with the Nets losing Deron Williams and Paul Pierce and the Knicks missing center Tyson Chandler.
While the Nets can use guys like Joe Johnson to bring up the ball, their lack of a primary playmaker on offense has them struggling, which is why they’re 3-6 ATS without Williams this season.
Meanwhile the Knicks are a much worse 3-9 ATS without Chandler, who has an history of being unhealthy. If he doesn't return to full strength at some point, New York’s season could get even uglier.
Verdict
Both N.Y. teams desperately need a season-defining win Thursday night to turn things around.
After a blowout loss at home, the Nets could turn it around in the first meeting between the two teams this season. Recent wins over the Grizzlies and the Raptors show that Brooklyn has what it takes while the Knicks have covered just once during a nine-game losing skid.
At the moment, if you’re going to pick your poison, the Nets seem to have more value.Comment
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To the dogs: MAC title game provides best underdog value
Conference championships provide bettors with one last taste action before bowl season gets underway, and in certain conferences, the underdogs have yielded plenty of value.
Here's a quick look at the underdog ATS and game O/U records in title games by conference, listed in order beginning with the best underdog value:
Pac-12 Conference (2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
The brief history of the conference championship has been known for two things: impressive performances by the underdogs, and plenty of points - even by Pac-12 standards. The ninth-ranked Oregon Ducks, installed as 31-point favorites, rode three LaMichael James rushing touchdowns to a 49-31 shootout win over the UCLA Bruins. The following season, the No. 8 Stanford Cardinal needed a Jordan Williamson 36-yard field goal with 6:49 remaining to fend off the 16th-ranked Bruins, who entered as 9.5-point underdogs.
Mid-American Conference (9-6-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
It's fitting that a conference known for being an underdog in the overall NCAA landscape has produced the most value for dogs in the conference championships. The Chad Pennington-led Marshall Green Wave highlighted a stretch of four consecutive underdog covers in the late 1990's and early 2000's, but the favorites came on strong with successful covers in five of the next six years. Buffalo's stunning 42-24 win over 12th-ranked and previously unbeaten Ball State - which entered as a 15-point favorite - kickstarted another four-year stretch of underdog covers.
Southeastern Conference (9-9-2 ATS, 10-10 O/U)
Bettors haven't gained an inch betting the underdog in the last 20 years of SEC championship games. Underdogs went 5-2-1 in the eight title matchups from 1993 to 2000, but the favorites dominated the early 2000s - most notably the fourth-ranked Georgia Bulldogs, whose 237 passing yards and a touchdown from standout quarterback David Greene and two rushing scores from Musa Smith led to a 30-3 drubbing of the Arkansas Razorbacks, who went into the 2002 title game as a 9-point underdog. The over/under has also been an even split over the past 20 championships.
Atlantic Coast Conference (4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U)
Like its SEC brethren, the ACC has seen the underdogs cover half the time. Florida State and Wake Forest won outright as dogs in 2005 and 2006, but were followed by four straight covers by the favorites. The most emphatic of those victories came in 2008, when Tyrod Taylor ran in a pair of scores to lead the Virginia Tech Hokies - 1-point faves - to a convincing 30-12 win over the Boston College Eagles. The underdogs have since returned to prominence the past two years, with both results landing Under.
Big Ten Conference (1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U)
The Big Ten has only held two championship games, but both provided great value to those willing to bet the Over. The Wisconsin Badgers, who entered as 9.5-point favorites, rode Russell Wilson's three touchdown passes and Montee Ball's three rushing scores to a thrilling 42-39 win over Michigan State in the inaugural conference title game in 2011. Ball was back at it the following year, leading the Badgers - then 3-point favorites - with three more rushing TDs en route to a 70-31 thumping of the Nebraska Cornhuskers.Comment
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Today's NFL Picks
Houston at Jacksonville
The Jaguars host a Houston team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite. Jacksonville is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Jaguars favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (12/4)Game 101-102: Houston at Jacksonville (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.312; Jacksonville 127.865
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 6 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); OverComment
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NCAA Football Game Picks
Louisville at Cincinnati
The Bearcats host a Louisville team that is coming off a 24-17 win over Memphis and is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in the previous game. Cincinnati is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's games.
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 5
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/4)Game 103-104: Louisville at Cincinnati (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 95.109; Cincinnati 97.040
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 55
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2); OverComment
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Two for Tuesday December 03, 2013 3:00 AM by GT Staff
2 for Tuesday by Richard Saber
1) Louisville -3½ vs. Cincinnati (NCAA fb)
The Bearcats have won six straight and are looking to avenge last year’s heartbreaking 34-31 loss at Louisville. Always fun seeing Teddy Bridgewater, but Cincy will be his River Kwai. CINCY.
2) Louisville vs. Cincinnati (51 total)
Pushing this “2 for Tuesday” to Thursday; it’s so good and we need a change in luck. Cardinals defense allowing less than 11 points in last four games. Plus the offense is struggling. UNDER.
Richard Saber: Last week 0-2 ATS; 2013 record: 47-45.Comment
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The Sports Nostradamus
Louisville -3 -120Comment
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Chicago Syndicate
NFL Thursday Night Total of the Year
Texans/Jaguars Over 43Comment
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Sixth Sense
TexansComment
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Maddux Sports
Texans -3Comment
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Prediction Machine
NFL SIDE & TOTAL
Houston Texans -3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Covers 53.3%)
OVER 43 (Covers 55.6%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Half-Bet
The Vitals:
Projected Score: Houston 25.4 - Jacksonville 21.0
SU Pick and Win%: Houston wins 60.8%
Week 14 SU Confidence Rank: #6
ATS Pick and Win%: Houston Texans -3 covers 53.3%
Week 14 ATS Confidence Rank: #10
ATS Wager for $50 player: $10
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (43) 55.6%
Week 14 O/U Confidence Rank: #8
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $34Comment
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H&H Sports
Double Dime JaguarsComment
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NBA
Hot teams
-- Heat won 10 of last 11 games; they're 5-2 vs spread on road.
Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost last nine games (1-8 vs spread); Nets lost eight of last ten.
-- Clippers lost their last two games, by 5-10 points. Memphis is 1-3 in last four home games; they're 2-7 vs spread at home.
-- Bulls lost six of their last seven games.
Totals
-- Six of last eight New York games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Clipper-Memphis games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Chicago-Miami games went over the total.
Series records
-- Knicks won eight of last eleven games with Brooklyn.
-- Clippers lost their last five games with Memphis.
-- Bulls lost five of last six games with Miami.Comment
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