12-11-13

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THE GOLD SHEET

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Penn St. 79 - DUQUESNE 57—Second trip in a week for Penn State (6-0 vs.
line thru Dec. 7) to the Steel City, where the Nittany Lions played rugged Pitt
tight last Tuesday. Jim Ferry’s reloading Duquesne is not Pitt, however, as the
Iron Dukes are plugging in transfers such as ex-UAB F Ovie Soko (16 ppg) and
juco G Tra’Vaughn White (15 ppg) to carry the offensive burden. Shot selection
and defense have been issues in the early going on The Bluff, however, and this
matchup down the hill at the NHL Penguins’ arena will not provide the normal
homecourt edge Duquesne might get at the Palumbo Center. Penn State, with
plenty of local support, rates a class edge with its G tandem of Tim Frazier &
D.J. Newbill (both better than 19 ppg). (at Consol Energy Ctr.)

RUTGERS over Princeton by 5 to 7

WISCONSIN over Wis.-Milwaukee by 14 to 17

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB NEW MEXICO ST at ARIZONA
Play Against - Any team (ARIZONA) hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%)
115-62 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.0% 46.8 units )

CBB PENN ST at DUQUESNE
Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (DUQUESNE) good 3 point shooting team - making >=37% of their attempts, in December games
231-54 over the last 5 seasons. ( 81.1% 84.6 units )
17-5 this year. ( 77.3% 2.8 units )

CBB N DAKOTA at BOWLING GREEN
Play On - Road underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (N DAKOTA) an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after a loss by 15 points or more
37-13 since 1997. ( 74.0% 22.7 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA DALLAS at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season, poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game
67-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )
5-4 this year. ( 55.6% 0.6 units )

NBA LA CLIPPERS at BOSTON
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, in non-conference games
50-21 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.4% 27.4 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.0 units )

NBA SAN ANTONIO at MILWAUKEE
Play Against - Road favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (SAN ANTONIO) a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a terrible team (<=25%)
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NHL LOS ANGELES at TORONTO
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after allowing 2 goals or less in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 4 goals or more
97-63 since 1997. ( 60.6% 70.0 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% 3.4 units )

NHL LOS ANGELES at TORONTO
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after allowing 2 goals or less in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games
89-58 since 1997. ( 60.5% 59.5 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 2.8 units )

NHL LOS ANGELES at TORONTO
Play Against - Road Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after allowing 2 goals or less in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games
80-47 since 1997. ( 63.0% 52.8 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% 2.8 units )

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WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL

**PREFERRED
*Charlotte over Orlando by 11
Charlotte's defense is much improved this season and its offense is starting to come
around as inside force Al Jefferson gets more into rhythm. Orlando doesn't have much
depth and this marks its sixth consecutive road game and third matchup in four days.
CHARLOTTE 99-88.

Los Angeles Clippers over *Boston by 5
Boston defeated the Clippers last season at home when the Clippers were missing
Chris Paul. This contest is Los Angeles' fifth of seven road games in a row.
LA CLIPPERS 104-99.

San Antonio over *Milwaukee by 10
Even though the Bucks are home and catch San Antonio playing for the second consecutive night it's either back the favorite or pass. The Bucks had dropped five of their last six at Bradley Center through Dec. 3, while averaging fewer than 85 points a game during this spread. San Antonio's reserves are as good as Milwaukee's starters.
SAN ANTONIO 95-85.

*New Orleans over Detroit by 7
New Orleans should be in fantastic shape having last played on Friday while Detroit
is in action for the fourth time in five days and second in two nights.
NEW ORLEANS 100-93.

*Minnesota over Philadelphia by 9
Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio draw the attention, but the Timberwolves have far better
role players in the past with Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer and newly acquired Luc
Mbah a Moute. The 76ers came into December ranked last defensively.
MINNESOTA 112-103.

*New York over Chicago by 3
Chicago has a winning spread record in the second of back-to-back games, but the
Knicks entered December averaging nearly six more points at home than on the road.
NEW YORK 97-94.

**PREFERRED
Oklahoma City over *Memphis by 9
This is the team's first meeting since the Grizzlies eliminated the Thunder in the playoffs
last season. Zach Randolph and Mike Conley have been getting far less open looks
with Marc Gasol sidelined. Going back to last season, the Grizzlies were 1-9 ATS during
their last 10 home games through Dec. 2.
OKLAHOMA CITY 103-94.

*Sacramento over Utah by 7
Dating back to last season, Utah has dropped 10 of its last 11 on the road through this
past Thursday. The Kings should have no excuse for getting ambushed at home since
they just met Utah five days ago.
SACRAMENTO 102-95.

*Golden State over Dallas by 2
Golden State is home for the first time in eight days. The Warriors also have revenge
for a 103-99 road loss to Dallas suffered on Nov. 27. Golden State lost despite holding
former teammate Monta Ellis to a season-low four points on 2-of-16 shooting
from the floor.
GOLDEN STATE 106-104.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

PRO BASKETBALL

Orlando 88 - CHARLOTTE 87—With only 4 covers in its last 13 thru Dec. 5
and at the end of an exhausting 6-game road trip, Orlando looks a pretty tough
sell. Especially if key cogs Nicola Vucevic (ankle) and Jameer Nelson (foot) are
still hurting. But not sure we want to lay points with Charlotte, especially with
emerging F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out at least a month with a broken hand.
Remember, Bobcats were held to fewer than 90 points for the ninth time in Dec.
3 loss (but cover) at Dallas, are last in the NBA in scoring average (88.8), fieldgoal
percentage (40.9) and 3-point shooting (29.4), and have reached 100
points once. Reluctantly, would rather take with Orlando.

LA Clippers 102 - BOSTON 91—Clips likely to be on alert after losing at TD
Garden last season. Of course, that was a different Boston team with a different
coach...and that guy (Doc Rivers) is now on the Clippers’ sideline. With so
many new faces on the Celtics roster, as well as their own new coach (Brad
Stevens), Doc’s return to Beantown likely to be a bigger deal to the Boston fans
than to the Celtics players. But rest assured Clips will not have to be reminded
that this would be a special win for their coach. Have some trust issues with L.A.
as road chalk (just 1-3 in role thru Dec. 5), but Boston no covers first two as
home dog. And recent Celtics wins have mostly come vs. the dregs of the East
(Bobcats, Cavs, Bucks...even a loss to woeful Milwaukee in recent results list).

San Antonio 97 - MILWAUKEE 84—This might be the sort of spot where
Gregg Popovich, as he is known to do, decides to rest some of his vets,
considering that Spurs (at Toronto on Tuesday) are playing their second night
of back-to-backs and are facing one of the league’s lowliest entries in
Milwaukee, which had dropped 13 of last 14 SU thru Dec. 5. Bucks’ 1-5 home
dog mark, however, suggests we still need a lot of cushion from the oddsmaker
even if Coach Pop decides to sit Tim Duncan and anyone else tonight.

Detroit 103 - NEW ORLEANS 94—New Orleans might miss Anthony Davis
(hand, probably out until early January), as his presence in the paint would be
important to combat the menacing Detroit frontline led by Andre Drummond and
Greg Monroe. Pistons beginning to find some traction with three wins and
covers in a row thru Dec. 5 (including a shocker at Miami), and Davis-less
Pelicans could be vulnerable if blowing late lead vs. Mavs on Dec. 4 is any
indication.

MINNESOTA 118 - Philadelphia 105—Neither team playing much defense
lately, so “over” might be the first reaction (and why not, with Sixers “over” 14-
5 thru Dec. 5?). A bit reluctant to back T-wolves, as their lack of depth has
contributed to poor 2-6 spread run last eight entering Dec. 6. But all hands still
on deck for T-wolves, and Sixers have shown no inclination to handle the likes
of the Kevins (Love & Martin, the latter a revelation at 22 ppg). Would lay a fair
price with T-wolves...and look “over” as well.

Chicago 85 - NEW YORK 80—Not quite the matchup the ESPN folks were
hoping for when the schedule was announced, as Chicago now minus Derrick
Rose and Knicks without a win in nine straight thru Dec. 4. Chicago still playing
some hearty defense for Tom Thibodeau, however, so might not be surprised at
another lower-scoring game like first meeting back on Oct. 31, when both Rose
and Knicks’ C Tyson Chandler were both active and Chicago won an 82-81
defensive war. Without Rose and Jimmy Butler (toe), Bulls are going to have to
win with defense, at least until they add some offensive help (a big if) before
trade deadline. Knicks no covers first 8 at MSG thru Dec. 5!

Oklahoma City 99 - MEMPHIS 92—The last time these teams met, it was in
the playoffs last spring, and Ok City was compromised by Russell Westbrook’s
absence. Which was a key reason Memphis was able to record a 4-game
sweep. Now, however, it’s the Grizzlies without a key weapon (injured Marc
Gasol), and a chance for Thunder to gain revenge. Ok City, winner of 8 in a row
SU before Dec. 4 loss at Portland, at full strength these days and seems up to
the task. Also note Memphis has covered only 2 of 8 in a dog role that was once
an almost automatic go-with play for the Griz when Lionel Hollins was their
coach.

SACRAMENTO 104 - Utah 95—These two just met December 7 at Salt Lake
City. Note that home team won SU in all four meetings last season when Utah
was a much better team. Recent near-misses at Sleep Train vs. playoff-caliber
Clippers, Warriors, and Thunder suggests Kings might be able to get over the
hump vs. lowly Jazz.

GOLDEN ST. 113 - Dallas 101—Payback time for Golden State bunch that
lost by 4 in Big D on Nov. 27, when Warriors were at mostly full-strength with the
exception of still-hurting Andre Iguodola (hamstring). Warriors got only 13
points from their bench that night, a familiar lament for Mark Jackson in many
of the Golden State losses this season. But with Steph Curry and Klay
Thompson, Warriors can always shoot their way out of any trouble, and Golden
State’s NBA-best 44% beyond arc suggests they have resources that other
teams don’t own. Warriors 4-1 vs. line last five thru Dec. 5, including wild
comeback from 27 down to win and cover vs. Raptors on Dec. 3.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wild at Ducks What bettors need to know

Minnesota Wild at Ahaheim Ducks (-134, 5)

The Minnesota Wild attempt to accomplish a feat 13 others were unable to when they visit the Anaheim Ducks on Wednesday. Anaheim has yet to lose in regulation at home this season, going 11-0-2. The Ducks kept that mark intact Monday, when it posted a 5-2 triumph over the New York Islanders behind a two-goal performance by Corey Perry.

Defenseman Cam Fowler scored a goal and set up two others while captain Ryan Getzlaf notched an assist to extend his point streak to 14 games for Anaheim, which has won three straight overall and has earned a point in six in a row (4-0-2). Minnesota is coming off its third win in four games, a 3-1 home victory over San Jose on Sunday. Zach Parise scored a pair of goals for the Wild, who are just 5-6-3 on the road as they begin a three-game trek.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, FSN North (Minnesota), FSN West (Anaheim)

ABOUT THE WILD (18-9-5): Parise's two-goal performance against San Jose was his third of the season and first since Nov. 5 versus Calgary. He shares the team lead in goals (14) with Jason Pominville, who is mired in a nine-game drought. Minnesota registered only 13 shots on goal in the victory over the Sharks, including eight over the final two periods.

ABOUT THE DUCKS (21-7-5): Getzlaf has collected 10 goals and 11 assists during his point run. The 28-year-old has recorded his first career hat trick as well as two three-game goal-scoring streaks during the run. Getzlaf is only officially credited with a 12-game point streak, however, as he missed three games due to injury after scoring in two straight.

TRENDS:
* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
* Wild are 0-5 in the last five meetings.
* Ducks are 5-1 in their last six vs. Central.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Ducks last eight overall.

OVERTIME:
1. Perry has scored a goal in a career-high six consecutive contests, matching the longest stretch in the NHL this season (St. Louis' Alex Steen and Tampa Bay's Steven Stamkos).

2. The Wild recalled LW Jason Zucker from Iowa of the American Hockey League on Tuesday.

3. Anaheim assigned LW Emerson Etem to Norfolk of the AHL.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Wednesday, December 11

Penn State is 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, winning all four by 12+ points; home teams won their last three games with Duquesne, as Lions lost 66-59 in last visit here two years ago. Dukes lost two games vs top 100 teams, by 13 at West Virginia, 17 to Pitt in its rivalry game. Best teams Dukes beat was #156 Albany. A-13 underdogs are 17-15.

Rutgers lost its last five D-I games, with last three losses by 6+ points; Knights won six of last eight games with Princeton, but lost last series game played here. Princeton is 2-1 on road, winning at Bucknell/Rice in its two top 100 games; they've won last five games, with three of last four wins by 13+. AAC underdogs are 8-10 against the spread.

Wisconsin beats up on Milwaukee every year, winning last 11 meetings, with six of last nine played here by 18+ points; Badgers just beat rival Marquette; they're 10-0, but North Dakota/Bowling Green are only wins by more than 11 points. Milwaukee won nine of last ten games, but best team they beat is #125 No Iowa. Horizon road underdogs are 14-17.

North Dakota State just won by 4 at Bryant, which then lost at Notre Dame by 11; Bison is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing at St Mary's by 13, by 1 at home to Southern Miss- they're already playing sixth road game. Notre Dame won five of last six games; they're 1-2 vs top 100 teams; its only top 100 win was by 5 vs Delaware. Summit road dogs are 12-14.

Buffalo won its last four games after 0-2 start; Bulls are 7-2 in last nine games vs Canisius, winning three of last four played here, winning by 9-9-35 points. Griffs beat Buffalo 71-64 LY; they scored 87.5 ppg over weekend in winning first two MAAC games of year. Canisius is making 40.7% from arc; coach's son Baron is making 42% of his 3-pointers.

Niagara snapped 7-game skid by beating St Peter's Sunday; is shooting 24.2% from arc, 6th-worst in US- they've already lost three games they scored 90+ points in. Davidson has big coaching edge here; Wildcats are 3-5 vs D-I teams; they overscheduled- Niagara is 2nd-worst team they played so far. Davidson's three D-I wins are by 12-6-9 points.

Fairfield lost its last eight games, allowing 78+ points in last three games; Stags turn ball over 21.8% of time, are 0-2 on road, losing at Quinnipiac by 4, Providence by 9. Belmont is 3-0 vs teams outside top 200, with wins by 4-30-10 points; Bruins haven't played since beating unbeaten Middle Tennessee last Tuesday. OVC non-conference favorites are 8-6.

North Dakota is 1-5 vs D-I teams but they overscheduled, with four of five losses vs top 100 teams; UND outscored Bowling Green 5-0 in last minute of 56-53 home win LY, after they led by 11 in first half. Falcons lost five of last seven games after losing in OT at Xavier Saturday- they are making 25.3% from arc, 60.1% from line. Big Sky road dogs: 14-21.

Colorado State has five new starters this year; they're 4-0 vs teams not in top 100, with three wins by 14+ points. Rams beat Denver last four years, winning by 4-5 points in last two played here. State is allowing teams to make 38% from arc. Denver is 1-5 vs D-I teams, splitting pair of OT games in last two- they're only shooting 32.4% from arc so far.

Unbeaten Arizona struggled here with UNLV Saturday, winning by 5- they've got TV game at Michigan Saturday. Wildcats won last two with New Mexico State by 26-7 points. Aggies lost last three games, by 2-9-12 points, losing last game at Gonzaga (trailed 31-30 at half), after loss at home to New Mexico. Pac-12 home favorites are 30-18 vs spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Wednesday, December 11

Trend Report

7:30 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. TORONTO
Los Angeles is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Los Angeles's last 14 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
Philadelphia is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 6-17-1 SU in its last 24 games ,when playing Philadelphia

10:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ANAHEIM
Minnesota is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Anaheim
Anaheim is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Anaheim is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
no play
(System Record: 44-4, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 44-42-1

Hockey Crusher
Anaheim Ducks -140 over Minnesota Wild
(System Record: 39-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 39-22

Basketball Crusher
Canisius +1.5 over Buffalo
(System Record: 19-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 19-25-1

Soccer Crusher
RZ Pellets WAC + Sturm Graz OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Austria
(System Record: 491-18, won last 3 games and a push)
Overall Record: 491-426-73

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee had the split's again winning with Benfica +$110/Paris-Saint Germain and losing his play on the draw +$132 for a total profit of +$5 on Tuesday.

E&B are going back to the pitch on Wednesday.

Napoli +150/Arsenal for $100 and a $50 wager on the draw +$220.

Ecks and Bacon is 2-2 +$135 for the week and 24-32-2 -$1243 so far in week seven.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

North Dakota State +8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

NBA-
Philly/Minnesota over 208.5
OKA/Memphis under 192

CBB-
Davidson-5
Penn State-6
Buffalo-1 -115
Colorado State-7.5
New Mexico State/Arizona under 145.5
North Dakote State/Notre Dame under 150

UMBC/Coppin St over 137.5
Boston U/George Washington over 136.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power play wins

Clippers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports

NBA Basketball
36-31-1 (-2.40u)

2* Under Spurs 193.5 -110
2* Over Kings 199.5 -110

NCAA Basketball
21-26-2 (-4.86u)

2* #723 Wisconsin-Milwaukee +18.0 -110