12-15-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 15 betting cheat sheet: Early action

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 49.5)

Robert Griffin III will be on the sidelines Sunday afternoon when the Redskins visit the Atlanta Falcons. The quarterback has been benched for poor play - and while much of the focus has been on Griffin's shortcomings in his sophomore season, and the 38 sacks the once-mobile quarterback has taken, the defense has been a much bigger problem. Washington is tied for 22nd in total defense and last in the league in scoring, allowing 31.3 points per game.

Atlanta's precipitous fall from NFC South champion to conference bottom-feeder can be blamed on its play in the trenches - the Falcons rank 30th in the league in rushing offense and rushing defense. They've topped 100 yards on the ground only three times while allowing triple digits in 10 straight games. Ryan (3,677 yards, 21 TDs) is in line for his third straight 4,000-yard season but also his lowest quarterback rating since 2009.

LINE: Atlanta opened as a 6-point fave, but has been bet up to -7. The total is down 1.5 points to 49.5.
WEATHER: N/A.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+7.5) - Atlanta (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Falcons -5
TRENDS:

* Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 6-2 in Atlanta's last eight home games.


Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (EVEN, 43)

The Chicago Bears will have their starting quarterback in the lineup when they visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Jay Cutler was cleared to practice at full speed on Wednesday and coach Marc Trestman on Thursday announced that he will start against Cleveland. He'll take over for Josh McCown, who threw for 348 yards Monday in a performance that earned him NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

Cleveland was on the verge of snapping its losing streak last Sunday before allowing two touchdowns in the final 61 seconds en route to a 27-26 loss at New England. The setback, their seventh in eight games, assured the Browns of their sixth consecutive losing season. Quarterback Brandon Weeden (concussion) practiced on Wednesday but remains questionable to serve as Jason Campbell's backup on Sunday.

LINE: The line has held steady at even-money, with the total down to 43 from the opening 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 45 percent chance of snow and wind blowing out of the west at 14 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-1.5) + Cleveland (+6.0) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -4.5
TRENDS:

* Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
* Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Over is 11-2 in Chicago's last 13 Sunday games following a Monday nighter.


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5, 45.5)

Houston quarterback Quarterback Case Keenum was one of those who appeared to be bothered by the pressure in a lackluster performance against the Jaguars that saw him benched in the third quarter, but the second-year pro was given the nod by interim head coach Wade Phillips to end the season under center. Keenum threw for a career-high 350 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in the prior meeting.

The Colts gave up 155 rushing yards against the Bengals last week and rank 29th overall in run defense, a troubling scenario for a team that hopes to have success in the postseason. Coupled with an inability at times to get off the field on third down - opponents are successful 40.5 percent of the time - Indianapolis has struggled to control the clock, also ranking 29th in time of possession.

LINE: Indianapolis has dropped a point to -5, while the total is also down a half-point to 45.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+6.5) + Indianapolis (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -10.5
TRENDS:

* Texans are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games.
* Colts are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)

The New England Patriots will begin life without Rob Gronkowski for the second time this season as they attempt to clinch their fifth consecutive AFC East title and 10th in 11 years. New England's offense sputtered a bit as it adjusted to his initial absence, which lasted the first six weeks of the campaign following offseason surgeries on his forearm and back. Tom Brady will likely need to continue to lean on wideout Julian Edelman (team-leading 76 receptions).

Despite being sacked a league-high 47 times, Ryan Tannehill has steadily improved and matched a career best with three touchdown passes last week versus the Steelers. Versatile tight end Charles Clay reeled in two to extend his team lead to seven in that department and has seven catches in each of the last two contests. Clay has 678 yards receiving for the second-best total by a Miami tight end since Randy McMichael (791, 2004).

LINE: Miami is a 1-point dog after opening at +2.5. The total is set at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-5.0) + Miami (+0.5) - home field (-3.0) = Patriots -2.5
TRENDS:

* Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. AFC opponents.
* Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Miami's last eight games vs. AFC East foes.


Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (+5.5, 51)

The Eagles did not score a single point during the fourth quarter in any of the first four games of their five-game winning streak, but they erupted for 28 fourth-quarter points against the Lions last Sunday. Nick Foles (NFL-leading 120.0 quarterback rating) threw for a touchdown and rushed for another last week, but his near-record run ended at 19 touchdowns before throwing his first interception of the season.

Minnesota and Baltimore exchanged leads six times in the fourth quarter, including five lead changes in the final 2:05, before the Vikings fell on Joe Flacco's touchdown pass to Marlon Brown with four seconds left. Minnesota has allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL, although defensive end Brian Robison has done a nice job pressuring the quarterback of late, recording six sacks in his last six games.

LINE: Minnesota has dropped to a 5.5-point dog after opening at +4. The total is down a half-point to 51.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (-4.0) + Minnesota (+5.0) - home field (-3.0) = Eagles -6
TRENDS:

* Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Week 15 games.
* Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.


Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+7, 41.5)

Seattle was hoping receiver Percy Harvin (hip) might play for the second time this season but it is looking unlikely. “He just hasn’t quite gotten over the hump,” coach Pete Carroll said on Wednesday. Quarterback Russell Wilson (23 touchdowns, seven interceptions) is excelling and standout running back Marshawn Lynch ranks fifth in the NFL with 1,042 yards. Star cornerback Richard Sherman (four interceptions) hasn’t picked off a pass since Oct. 28.

Quarterback Eli Manning (3,254 yards, 16 touchdowns) shares the NFL interception lead of 20 with rookie Geno Smith of the Jets and has gone eight consecutive games without reaching 300 yards. He’s also painfully aware that his struggles are a big part of the reason why New York will miss out on the postseason for the second straight campaign.

LINE: The Giants are holding as a 7-point dog, with the total set at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 14 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) + New York (+2.0) - home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -7
TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the NFC.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.


San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5, 41)

Defense has keyed the turnaround for San Francisco, which allowed an average of 28 points in its first three games but has yielded 13 per game while going 8-2 over its last 10. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick continues to put up modest numbers, but he has been picked off only once in his last three games and has his top wideout back in Michael Crabtree, who has six catches in his first two contests since returning from an Achilles injury.

Tampa Bay forced five turnovers against the Bills to overcome an ugly performance by rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, who threw for a season-low 90 yards and two interceptions. With their top two running backs out for the season, Bobby Rainey rushed for 127 yards and a touchdown last week - although most of it came on an 80-yard scoring run - and Vincent Jackson hauled in his sixth TD reception of the season.

LINE: Tampa Bay has remained a 5-point dog. The total is down a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 45 percent chance of showers.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-6.5) - Tampa Bay (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = 49ers -7.5
TRENDS:

* 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. teams with losing records.
* Buccaneers are 13-28-1 ATS in their last 42 home games.
* The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.


Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5, 42.5)

Buffalo boasts one of the top rushing games in the league with Fred Jackson (645 yards, seven TDs) and C.J. Spiller (678 yards, two TDs) sharing the load. Quarterback play has been an issue thanks to injuries and the inconsistent performance of rookie EJ Manuel, who hit bottom with four interceptions last week. The defense has given up a lot of yardage, but the front four is strong and has led Buffalo to an NFL-best 44 sacks.

Jacksonville has outgained only one opponent all season and the offense ranks last in total yards and scoring, but a resurgent ground game has led an improved effort during the winning streak. That progress could be in jeopardy with star running back Maurice Jones-Drew (hamstring) looking like a game-time decision and unproven Jordan Todman in line to start in his place.

LINE: Jacksonville opened as a two-point dog and is now +2.5, with the total down from 43.5 to 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 69 percent chance of rain.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+5.0) - Jacksonville (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jaguars -2.5
TRENDS:

* Bills are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
* Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. the AFC.
* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 15 betting cheat sheet: Late action

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+4.5, 41.5)

Kansas City has turned in four straight solid offensive performances, averaging 384.5 total yards over that span, but the banged-up defense struggled during the three-game skid. The defense returned to form with a dominant effort against Washington and could get linebacker Justin Houston (11 sacks) back from an elbow injury this week. Despite the three-game hiccup, the Chiefs allow an AFC-best 17.2 points per game.

Oakland is sticking with Matt McGloin at quarterback as the undrafted rookie has compiled a respectable 88.7 rating with 957 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions in four games as the starter. The Raiders likely will mix in some plays for quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who adds another element to the AFC's best rushing attack at 134.4 yards per game.

ODDS: Oakland opened as a 3.5-point dog but has been bet down to +4.5. The total is up a half-point to 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-2.5) + Oakland (+5.5) - home field (-3.0) = Raiders -5
TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 8-1-1 in Oakland's last 10 home games.


New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-10.5, 40.5)

Rookie quarterback Geno Smith appeared headed for a benching after a wretched three-game stretch in which he threw zero touchdowns and six interceptions, but he bounced back with a solid effort in the win against Oakland, posting his highest passer rating since Oct. 7. Running back Chris Ivory is averaging 81.8 yards and has rushed for three TDs in the past five games.

Although Panthers quarterback Cam Newton threw for only 160 yards last week - his lowest total since the season opener - he provides a dual threat with an average of 57.3 yards rushing in the past four. Greg Hardy leads a defense that is fourth in the league with 41 sacks. The Panthers can clinch a playoff berth with a win and losses by San Francisco, Arizona and Dallas.

ODDS: Carolina has held steady as an 11-point fave, with the over/under set at 40 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with partly cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+4.5) + Carolina (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -12
TRENDS:

* Jets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
* Panthers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. teams with losing records.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 49)

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers' status is up in the air for this weekend's clash in Dallas, although Packers backup Matt Flynn could expect to have some success against the Cowboys, given how Dallas' defense has played of late. Green Bay could be in for a long day against Dallas running back DeMarco Murray, as the Packers rank 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed.

Tony Romo has thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in each of his last six games, racking up 12 scores and two picks during that stretch. Surprisingly, standout tight end Jason Witten only has 10 total receptions over the last four games and has surpassed 53 receiving yards just once in his last eight contests. The Cowboys are 1-2 against the NFC North this season.

ODDS: The Cowboys opened as 6.5-point faves. The total opened at 49.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+5.3) + Dallas (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -10.3
TRENDS:

* Packers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 December games.
* Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs. teams with losing records.
* Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.


New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (+6.5, 47.5)

Saints quarterback Drew Brees (4,107 yards, 33 touchdowns) went over the 4,000-yard passing mark for the eighth consecutive season during a standout performance against the Panthers in which he passed for 313 yards and four touchdowns. What stood out more to Brees when he dissected his recent strong play with reporters this week is that he has thrown just one interception over the past five games.

St. Louis has scored just 23 points during a two-game losing streak after scoring 80 in two victories that preceded the setbacks. Running back Zac Stacy (721 yards) has exceeded expectations and needs a strong finish to join Eric Dickerson (1983) and Jerome Bettis (1993) as the only rookies in franchise history to record 1,000-yard seasons. Defensive end Robert Quinn ranks second in the NFL with 13 sacks.

ODDS: The Rams opened +5.5, but the line has been bet up a point to 6.5. The total is up 1-point to 47.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-6.0) + St. Louis (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Saints -6.5
TRENDS:

* Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on turf.
* Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in St. Louis.


Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 41.5)

Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer did not practice leading up to last week's game versus St. Louis, but he overcame an ailing elbow to throw for 269 yards and a TD in the 30-10 rout. Palmer has curbed his turnover-prone ways in the past four games, throwing for eight touchdowns against two interceptions despite a running game that ranks 26th at 90.2 yards per game.

Tennessee surrendered an NFL-worst 471 points last season and the defensive woes have resurfaced in the past month, with opponents averaging 33 points in the past four defeats. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick threw five touchdowns passes and zero interceptions in his first three games since Locker went down, but has been picked off four times in the past two games.

ODDS: The Titans are 2.5-point dogs after opening at +3. The total is steady at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with partly cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-3.0) + Tennessee (+3.0) - home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -3
TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with losing records.
* Titans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 December games.
* Over is 8-2 in Tennessee's last 10 games vs. teams with winning records.


Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5, 41.5)

Bengals QB Andy Dalton is enjoying his best season and is coming off a three-touchdown, no-interception performance in last week’s 42-28 victory over the AFC South-leading Indianapolis Colts. Dalton is getting plenty of help from the two-headed running attack of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard, who combined for 147 yards on the ground last week while adding to the passing game as well.

Pittsburgh nearly pulled off a spectacular victory over the Miami Dolphins last week with a series of laterals on the final play that ended with Antonio Brown in the end zone. Replays revealed that Brown had nicked the sideline on his way to the goal line, leaving the Steelers with a 34-28 setback and a very hard road to the playoffs. Brown needs 10 catches to become the second receiver in Pittsburgh history to reach 100 in a season.

ODDS: The Steelers are installed as 1.5-point dogs, with the total up one point to 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-20s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the width of the field at 10 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-4.5) + Pittsburgh (+1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Bengals -2.5
TRENDS:

* Bengals are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games.
* Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. NFC North foes.
* Under is 22-7 in Cincinnati's last 29 December games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL betting: NFC West is the ATS king

The NFL's three best teams ATS this season all hail from what used to be considered the doormat division of the NFL, the NFC West.

The Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals are all sporting 9-4 records ATS this season. That is quite a turnaround considering just a few years ago the Seahawks won the division with a 7-9 record.

These three teams are all favored Sunday, with the Seahawks as 7-point faves at the New York Giants, the 49ers as 5-point faves at Tampa Bay and the Cards as 2.5-point faves at Tennessee.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David


Week 14 Recap

Last week’s NFL action had some of the wildest finishes I’ve ever seen and if you bet totals, you saw some really bad losses. Next week, VegasInsider.com will be publishing its annual “Bad Beat” piece and we’ll touch on a couple of these. Those of you who bet the ‘under’ in the Minnesota-Baltimore and New England-Cleveland matchups, we extend our apologies. To those of you who won, nice job!

Bettors saw 90 touchdowns scored on Sunday alone in Week 14, which helped the ‘over’ go 11-5. On the season, the ‘over’ holds a 111-93-2 edge.

Non-Conference Overs

After a 3-1 week, this trend is up to 45-14 (76%) on the season. We have four more matchups (AFC vs. NFC) on tap in Week 15, which includes the Monday battle.

Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Cleveland
New York Jets at Carolina
Baltimore at Detroit

Systems & Trends

We hope you all took advantage of the last week’s “Total System Play” on the Tennessee-Denver matchup. I’ll be sure to keep you informed if it presents itself in the playoffs. As I mentioned last week, I found this system in a message board and it’s been profitable. Another way I find out information is through emails from VegasInsider.com users. Last week, I received a great angle from a VI user who prefers the moniker Agent-86.

According to his analysis that I’ve verified, any team that has played at home on Thursday this season has watched the ‘over’ go 12-2-1 in their next game, regardless of the venue.

Let’s simplify this for you with last week's examples. On Thanksgiving, the Lions, Cowboys and Ravens all hosted games in Week 13 which means the above trend would call for ‘over’ plays in Week 14. Sure enough, Detroit, Dallas and Baltimore all saw their games go ‘over’ last weekend.

Check out our Thursday Night results page and you'll be able to see which teams played in the mid-week matchup this season.

For Week 15, you would look at the ‘over’ in the Jacksonville-Buffalo matchup since the Jaguars played at home on Thursday in Week 14.

Next week, the situation would call for an ‘over’ in the Denver-Houston game since the Broncos played at home this past Thursday.

As I’ve written before in my TT installments, I do believe all trends usually balance out and it should part of your handicapping not the "Be-all and End-all" of your selections. Even if the ‘under’ cashes the next two weeks, you’re still looking at a season total trend that has produced profits of 75 percent.

If anybody else has anything to share, shoot me an email.

Line Moves

The Line Moves went 4-2 last week, pushing the season numbers to 39-29-1 (67%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

Buffalo at Jacksonville: Line opened 44 and dropped to 42
Green Bay at Dallas: Line opened 47 and jumped to 49
Baltimore at Detroit: Line opened 46½ and jumped to 48

Divisional Angles

New England at Miami: The Patriots defeated the Dolphins 27-17 at home on Oct. 27. Including this results, the ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series.

Houston at Indianapolis: The Colts earned a 27-24 road victory over the Texans on Nov. 1 and the combined 51 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42. Prior to this game, the ‘under’ had cashed in the last five encounters between the pair.

Kansas City at Oakland: When these teams meet, low-scoring affairs usually occur. The ‘under’ is on an 8-1-1 run in the last 10 encounters, which includes the Chiefs 24-7 home win over the Raiders on Oct. 13.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Thursday’s primetime schedule concluded this past week as the Chargers defeated the Broncos 27-17. The ‘under’ hit (57) in this contest but the ‘over’ connected at a 67 percent (10-5) clip in the mid-week contest this season. On SNF, the ‘over’ owns an 8-6 mark but the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run the last four weeks. MNF saw a high-scoring affair (45-28) last week between the Bears and Cowboys. Overall, the ‘over’ owns a 25-19 (57%) record in primetime games.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Bengals and Steelers have seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight and six of the last seven meetings. Cincinnati defeated Pittsburgh 20-10 at home in a MNF battle in Week 2 and the total closed at 40. For this week’s rematch, the number is hovering between 41 and 42 points. The Bengals have exploded for 83 points in their last two home games but just 34 in their previous two road contests. Pittsburgh has been involved in its fair share of shootouts lately, which has helped the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its last four.

Baltimore at Detroit: Detroit’s offense is averaging 31.7 PPG at Ford Field this season, which has helped ‘over’ go 5-1 and that record could easily be 6-0. Baltimore has been a clear-cut ‘under’ (5-2) at home but the ‘over’ is 3-2-1 on the road due to a defense that’s allowed 26.8 PPG in six games. The total has already been steamed from 46½ to 48 points and it will probably get higher by kickoff. If you’re looking for an ‘under’ angle in this spot, you might see some conservative play-calling since both teams need a win to help their playoff pushes. The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between this pair but they haven’t met since 2009.

Fearless Predictions

The bankroll is up to $260 after a 3-1 week, with the teaser failing to connect. Three weeks of regular season action left and looking to finish strong. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Miami 45
Best Under: Chicago-Cleveland 43
Best Team Total: Under Cincinnati 20½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 36 New England-Miami
Over 38½ New Orleans-St. Louis
Under 50½ Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Navy (-12 1/2) on Saturday and likes the Bills on Sunday.

The deficit is 1495 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

NFL-
San Fran-5
Houston/Indy over 45.5
Jacksonville+2
Kansas City-3.5
Arizona/Tennessee over 41.5
Cinci/Pittsburgh over 40.5

CBB-
Villanova-13.5
Chicago State+14
Charleston-10.5
Wright State-1.5
Syracuse-4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT

NO LIMIT----OAKLAND.....NFL DIVISION RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR
On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs will roll into the Coliseum to take on the Oakland Raiders. The Chiefs hit a rough patch in which they lost three games in a row. The win against the Skins is what they needed to get them back on the winning side of things. The Raiders are coming off of another disappointing loss. This time at the hands of the New York Jets. The good news is they were able to put up 27 points in that game. Throw the records out in this AFC West rivalry, last 13 meeting the underdog has prevailed ATS. Look for Oakland to play much better as they get HOT RB Jennings back from missing last week with concussion. Even better Kansas City has nothing left to play for they can't improve their top wildcard spot that they already have locked up. Raiders pull big upset as the Black Hole will finally have something to cheer over. TAKE OAKLAND
________________________________________
INNER CIRCLE---NY GIANTS....NFC UPSET OF THE YEAR
The Seattle Seahawks will travel across the country to take on the New York Giants. The Seahawks will definitely be traveling with a bad taste in the mouth after losing to the San Francisco 49ers in a divisional showdown with great implications. Even with that tough loss, the Seahawks still have the Best Record in the NFC. The Giants are currently 5-8 and still mathematically alive for the playoffs. The chances of them actually making the playoffs are not very high but then again they play in the NFC East. The Giants may not win outright but there are plenty of ways to cover this spread in that one last huge effort by Eli Manning and troops. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC. TAKE NY GIANTS
_______________________________________
PINNACLE---ST LOUIS....THE NFL GAME OF THE YEAR
The New Orleans Saints will storm into the Edward Jones Dome to take on the St. Louis Rams. The Saints are currently 10-3, as they come off of an impressive win over their division rivals, the Carolina Panthers. In this game, Drew Brees was the precise passer that he has become known for – throwing for 313 yards and four Touchdowns. The Rams are coming off of a tough loss to the Arizona Cardinals. This was a game that the Rams were simply not able to get into. This is the tale of the home/road dichotomy and will come into play in this game.It's a dangerous trap spot for the New Orleans Saints. After the big win last week against Panthers it would be easy to overlook a 5 win Rams team. Saints fans should be concerned as Saints have not been great away from home going 3-3 straight up and 1-5 ATS. Rams on the other side have been solid at home going 3-3 straight up and ATS. Rams get an ATS winner and have shot late to pull off outright win. TAKE ST LOUIS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Washington won three of its last four games.
-- Panthers won four of their last five games. Montreal won six of last eight.
-- Flames won five of last seven games, with last three wins all 2-1 in OT.
-- Los Angeles won its last six games, allowing seven goals. Chicago won three of last four.
-- Ducks won their last four games, allowing seven goals.


Cold teams
-- Flyers lost three of their last four games.
-- Detroit lost its last four games, scoring total of five goals. Lightning lost fiver of their last seven games.
-- Rangers lost last four games, outscored 16-7.
-- Edmonton lost three of its last four games.

Totals
-- Four of last five Philly games went over the total; five of Washington's last seven games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Tampa Bay games stayed under total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Montreal games.
-- Last seven Calgary games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Chicago games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Anaheim games.

Series records
-- Flyers won five of last seven vs Washington; they lost 7-0 to Caps Nov 1.
-- Lightning beat Detroit twice this season, once in OT, once in SO.
-- Canadiens won last three games with Florida, outscoring them 10-3.
-- Rangers won last two games with Calgary, 2-1/3-2ot.
-- Kings lost six of last eight with Chicago; LA lost in five games to Hawks in playoffs LY.
-- Ducks won 14 of their last 16 games with Phoenix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Rockets won three of their last four games.
-- Portland won/covered seven of its last eight games.
-- Thunder won/covered their last five home games.
-- New Orleans won five of its last seven games.
-- Suns won/covered six of their last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- Kings lost eight of last ten games, are 4-10 vs spread at home.
-- Minnesota lost six of its last nine games. Memphis lost four of five.
-- Pistons lost three of last four games, are 5-8 vs spread at home.
-- Magic lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Denver is 2-3 in last five games; they're 3-6 vs spread at home.
-- Warriors lost four of their last six road games.

Totals
-- Nine of eleven Houston road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total; under is 15-3 in last eighteen Minnesota-Memphis games.
-- Eight of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-4 in Oklahoma City home games.
-- Five of last six Denver games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Phoenix games went over the total.

Series records
-- Rockets won nine of last eleven games with Sacramento.
-- Grizzlies won last eleven t games with Minnesota (9-2 vs spread).
-- Pistons lost eight of last ten games with Portland.
-- Thunder won last four games with Orlando by 8-3-13-8 points.
-- Pelicans lost last three visits to Denver by 13-18-15 points.
-- Warriors won their last six games with Phoenix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aaron's Analysis


332 PITTSBURGH STEELERS plus 2 1/2 over Cincinnati Bengals



The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) host the Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers are coming off of two heartbreaking losses, losing to Miami last week 34-28. and to Baltimore the previous week, 22-20. Against the Dolphins, Steeler receiver Antonio Brown came up short as time expired in a wild last ditch effort. The week prior, they missed out on overtime as their two point conversion failed. Despite the loss last week, the Steelers outgained the Dolphins 412-360. Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger managed to pass for 349 yards and 3 TDs and Brown caught five passes for 137 yards and 1 TD. As a result of those two consecutive losses the Steelers have no chance of making the playoffs, and will not end up with a winning season. The Bengals are currently sitting comfortably at the top of the AFC North, with a two game lead over the Ravens. They have won three games in a row, and are coming off of a 42-28 victory over Indianapolis last week. Despite a perfect 6-0 record at home, the Bengals are only 3-4 on the road, with two of those three victories coming by a mere margin of three points each. Behind the arm of Roethlisberger the Steelers are ranked #7 passing the ball, with an average of 266.8 yards per game. In addition to last week’s effort versus the Dolphins as mentioned above, Ben and the Steelers have managed to pass for an even better 290 yards per game over their last four contests. This week they should be able to take advantage of a Bengal secondary who has been struggling as of late, allowing an average of 252.7 yards over the last three games (222.4 on the season). On the season Roethlisberger has passed for 3,724 yards, with 64% completions and a solid 24 to 10 TD to INT ratio. In their previous meeting this year in Cincinnati in the second week of the season, the Bengals won 20-10. Roethlisberger managed to pass for 251 yards and 1 TD in that one. At that point early in the year, not only were the Steelers minus running back Le’Veon Bell, but also were minus Ben’s ”safety blanket” on offense, tight end Heath Miller. Entering the lineup in the third game, Miller has caught 49 passes for 524 yards and 1 TD since. Leading all receivers for the Steelers has been Antonio Brown, catching 90 passes for 1,240 yards and 7 TDs. The other two leading wideouts are also quite competent, as Emmanuel Sanders has caught 58 passes for 661 yards and 5 TDs and Jerricho Cotchery, 41 passes for 571 yards and a team leading 9 TDs. Versatile running back Le’Veon Bell has gained 936 yards from scrimmage to go along with 5 TDs in just ten games this season. Over the last two games he has 225 yards in total offense, with 1 TD and an improved 4.3 yards per carry. Defensively, the Steelers have been quite sound, as they rank #7 in the league versus the pass, allowing an average of just 221.8 yards per game. Prior to allowing 181 yards rushing to Miami last week in snowy conditions, the Steelers were allowing just 82.8 yards per game on the ground in their previous four contests (120.2 on the season). Prior to the Bengals putting up 275 yards passing versus the Colts last week, QB Andy Dalton had been struggling, as the Bengals averaged just 184 yards through the air over the three games prior. Although the Bengals may very well put up some decent numbers passing versus the Steelers with Dalton and receivers A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, a solid Steeler defense should be able to keep them in check. Roethlisberger, Brown, Sanders, Cotchery and Miller should be able to get it done in the passing game versus the Bengals secondary, and Bell should keep the Bengal defense honest as he pounds away on the ground. As mentioned above, the Bengals have been a poor road team this year. Although the Steelers are out of the playoffs, they look to play the role of spoiler in this one, and would love nothing better than knocking off their division rival, and I forecast they’ll be able to come out of this one with an upset victory.


STEELERS 24-17 (3 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aaron's Analysis


326 CAROLINA PANTHERS minus 10 over NY Jets



The Carolina Panthers (9-4) host the New York Jets (6-7) on Sunday in Charlotte. The Panthers are coming off of a disappointing 31-13 loss at New Orleans last week, ending their eight game winning streak. That loss also put them one game behind the Saints in the NFC South. The Jets are coming off of a 37-27 victory at home over Oakland, putting an end to their three game losing streak. Despite the victory, they were outgained 383-352. As a result of that victory, the Jets still cling to hopes of making the playoffs. Playoffs? By simply reading that you cannot hear the emphasis, as I was trying to imitate what Coach Jim Mora said in an interview years ago. The Panthers have won five consecutive games at home, with their loss prior coming at the start of the season versus the now 11-2 Seattle Seahawks. Throwing out a tough 24-20 victory over the always tough 10-3 New England Patriots, the Panthers have dominated their other four opponents at home with a combined score of 129-31. During that five game span, Panther QB Cam Newton has had a passer rating of 100.2, 65.2% completions, 1,148 yards and 10 TDs versus 5 INTs, with an additional 223 yards and 3 TDs rushing. While the Panthers are #1 in the league allowing just 14.5 points per game, the Jets are #31 in scoring, averaging just 17.4. The Jets have managed to go just 1-5 on the road this season, with their lone victory being versus 3-10 Atlanta. Throwing out that victory, the Jets have been outgained on the road by the combined score of 156-49, averaging just 9.8 points per contest. While the Jets have a decent rushing attack, their offense is one dimensional as they rank #30 passing with an average of just 181.4 yards per game. Recently they’ve seemed to have gotten even worse with QB Geno Smith, as they have averaged just 137.5 over the last six games. The Jets offense should find both points and yards hard to come by this week versus the stingy Panther defense, a defense who has allowed just 79.4 yards rushing per game (#1, 62.3 last three games) to go along with 216.8 versus the pass (#5). Offensively the Panthers rank #9 in rushing, with a solid average of 129.2 yards per game (142.3 last three games). Although the Jets rank #2 versus the rush, they’ve shown vulnerability over the past two games, as they have allowed a combined 275 yards rushing to Oakland and Miami. The Panthers should be able to move the ball on the ground versus the Jets with the likes of backs DeAngelo Williams (833 yards from scrimmage, 2 TDs) and Mike Tolbert (475 yards from scrimmage, 6 TDs). Jonathan Stewart will be out with a torn MCL in his right knee. Contributing 495 yards and 6 TDs rushing is QB Cam Newton. Newton has passed for 2,776 yards, 62% completions, and a solid TD to INT ration of 20 to 11. Behind Newton the Panthers have averaged a decent 191.7 yards per game through the air. Newton and the Panthers should be able to take care of business through the air in this one, as the Jet secondary has allowed a staggering average of 290 yards per game over the last six games, with a season average of 254.9 yards, which ranks them #24. The Jets may also be without Antonio Cromartie (concussion). Newton has a talented group of receivers, with the likes of the ageless Steve Smith (60 catches for 681 yards and 4 TDs), tight end Greg Olsen (58 catches for 651 yards and 5 TDs), Brandon LaFell (45 catches for 553 yards and 5 TDs) and Ted Ginn, Jr. (31 catches for 474 yards and 4 TDs). The Panther defense allows just a total of 296.2 yards per game (#2). They should be able to handle Smith and the Jet offense. As mentioned above, the Panthers have been successful at home, and that should continue here versus a Jet team who struggles on the road. As a result of the Jets winning and the Panthers losing last week, there’s some line value in this one. Panthers should be able to dominate and get back on track here.


PANTHERS 35-14 (3 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Irish Mike Moran

Wash+7
TB+5.5
Ten+3
CHI O44
NE-PK
Min+5.6
SEA U42(2x)


Dal-PK+CAR-4+KC O34 Teaser (2x)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTI's O/U Play Of The Year

5-Star Washington at Atlanta OVER 50
-- In last week's 22-21 loss in Green Bay, Atlanta Harry Douglas caught two passes for a total of 20 yards. This points to the over, as the Falcons are 7-0 OU in franchise history after a road loss in which Harry Douglas did not have a catch of more than 18 yards. The SDQL text is:
0 Note that these game have flown over by an average of 15.3 ppg.

Kirk Cousins have been put in this spot for a reason. The Redskins are not going to get rid of RGIII, but there are a lot of NFL teams that are desperate for a QB and would be willing to give up a lot for Cousins. He is starting here because the Falcons have allowed 67.14% completions this season (31st in the league) and they have only six interceptions on the season (also 31st in the league). Their defense has forced only 3.85 punts per game this season (30th in the league) and thehave allowed a third down conversion percentage of 46.0% -- worst in the entire league. In addition, their best player in the secondary, Thomas DeCoud, is out with a concussion. Kirk Cousins is obviously being showcased -- there's a reason why they didn't start him vs the Chiefs -- and will be let loose here.

We have a league-wide system that supports the OVER as well. Road dogs by more than six points are 19-0 OU when facing a team that has forced fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:

A and line>6 and oA(ounts)<4 and date>=20111114

The reasoning is obvious. As a big road dog vs a team with a terrible passing defense, would you run the ball?

As a team, the Redskins are 9-0-1 OU +10.70 ppg) after a home game in which they had a least 1 receiving touchdown. Washington has allowed 24-plus points in 12 of their thirteen games this season. Their defense was on the field for 34:10 last week. Both of these teams should get to 30-plus points here. Take the OVER.

MTi's FORECAST: Washington 34 ATLANTA 31

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LA Syndicate

Bucs
Cardinals (ML) & Over
Giants
Chiefs
Steelers

NBA
Over Kings
Over Pistons
Over Nuggets

CBB
San Diego (ML)
Wyoming

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

Cardinals (ML)
Browns
Over Colts
Dolphins
Steelers

NBA
Over Grizzlies
Over Pistons

CBB
Syracuse
Missouri
UAB