12-15-13

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JASON SHARPE

5 Unit Play Take #316 Cleveland +1.5 over Chicago (1:00pm est):
The Chicago Bears were in the perfect spot last Monday night at home as they played in their biggest game of the entire NFL season. The Bears took advantage of this huge primetime game and looked very great in the process against what is an overrated Dallas Cowboys squad. We nailed that play as well and in a big way making it our December NFL Game of the Month. Now that's all behind them and there is a very good chance that they will also be pulling red hot starting quarterback Josh McCown for Jay Cutler here in this one. The Bears are only 2-4 on the road this season with both wins being somewhat flukes as they were outplayed by the Pittsburgh Steelers but won the turnover battle by a plus five and also beat Green Bay when the Packers lost Aaron Rodgers for that game very early on.

The Cleveland Browns would love nothing more than to send their fans home for the season with a win in their home finale. The Browns have a top ten defense in the NFL but an offense that is still a work in progress. The Browns lost a heartbreaker last week in New England in a game they had no business losing to the Patriots as they had a nice lead throughout. This was a team that was once 3-2 on the season but then lost games to Detroit, Green Bay (with Rodgers), Kansas City, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and New England over their next seven games overall. That's a very good group of teams to have to face week in and week out over a two month stretch.

The Bears are not a good football but instead they are just very averaging at best and with a defense that rated towards the bottom of the NFL. Take Cleveland in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #325 New York Jets +11 over Carolina (4:05pm est):
This isn't an easy spot for the Carolina Panthers who enter this game in the middle of a New Orleans Saints sandwich. The Panthers lost last week in a big game at New Orleans and then will face the Saints next week in a big revenge spot. This game screams a look ahead spot.

The New York Jets run a 3-4 defense, this is the same type of scheme that Arizona, San Francisco and New Orleans run. Those teams held Carolina to just 9.6 points per game this season. Keep in mind also Jets head coach Rex Ryan is the brother to Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, the guy who just beat the Panthers last weekend.

Look for the Jets to keep things close here. Take New York and the points in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #328 Oakland +4.5 over Kansas City (4:05pm est):
These are the type of games late in the season where the betting public always piles on one side. We are seeing it again in this one as the highest percentage of bettors look to be on the Chiefs this week which creates some nice value to bet against them.

I have not impressed by this Kansas City team this year. They did get a much needed win last week as it looked like Washington had no interest playing in the cold. Now they are being asked to travel to the other side of the Unites States and play this week in Oakland. The last time these two teams went at it this season, the Raiders outgained them on the road but lost the game. Despite their differences in records they are both gaining about 20 yards less per game than they are allowing for this season.

The Raiders have got solid play out of their new quarterback the last month. This isn't a bad football team at all despite a 4-9 record on the season. Look for them to keep things close here. Take Oakland the points.

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

NFL
Arizona @ Tennessee
Tennessee+2.5

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Al DeMarco

17-Point Burial Blowout of the Year


15 Dimer: Carolina

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Goldsheet


★★★CAROLINA 27 - NY Jets 6—Meeting the angry Panther defense, in
Charlotte, is the nightmare scenario for the turnover-prone New York offense.
While QB Geno Smith (54%, 10 TDs, 21 ints.) ended his slump last week with his
first TDP in six games, facing the stone wall that has become the front seven of
the Panther defense (yielding only 10 ppg at home) does not figure to go well for
the rookie. Smith’s supporting cast is one of the weakest in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the big-play speed of WR/KR Ted Ginn Jr. has boosted the Carolina
passing game, easing the pressure on Steve Smith and Cam Newton. Panthers
bounce back from their loss in the Big Easy.


★★★INDIANAPOLIS 33 - Houston 17—After losing 11 straight (it’s
amazing how close it is to 13 in a row!) and after playing so poorly that owner
Bob McNair would rather entrust the rest of the Texans’ regular season to Wade
Phillips instead of the just-dismissed Gary Kubiak, it’s hard to make a serious
case for sloppy Houston. Which, on top of various negatives, also
accumulated as many penalties (14) as the old Broad Street Bully Philadelphia
Flyers in last week’s loss at Jacksonville. Indy is not exactly ramping up to the
postseason in consistent form (a byproduct, perhaps, of key WR Reggie
Wayne’s absence), but the Colts can usually be trusted to bounce back from a
SU defeat, covering their last nine in such situations!
(13-Indy 27-HOU. 24...H.22-17 H.33/143 I.14/69 H.20/34/0/350 I.18/40/0/245 I.0 H.0)
(12-HOU. 29-Indy 17...H.23-19 H.32/178 I.25/124 H.23/31/0/239 I.13/27/0/148 H.0 I.1)
(12-INDY 28-Hou. 16...19-19 H.20/102 I.33/81 H.24/36/2/250 I.14/28/0/184 I.0 H.0)
(13-Indy -2 27-24; 12-HOUSTON -10 29-17, INDY +6' 28-16…SR: Indianapolis 19-4)

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VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
6 Unit Play. #323 Take Philadelphia -4 ½ over Minnesota (1:05p.m., Sunday, Dec 15)
(Game of the Month)
One team that is heading to probably the playoffs and streaking hot and another team that is
struggling and their franchise RB is out! The surprising Philadelphia Eagles still have yet to lose a
game that Nick Foles has started at QB and Sunday on the road in Minnesota I don't see it
happening. Eagles QB Foles has thrown 1 INT in his last 255 pass attempts and that 1 INT was
last week's blizzard at home. The Vikings defense has been questionable all season long and they
have given up over 20 points in every game this year. I see Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy having
big games in the Dome and the spped on the Eagles offense should have a field day against
Vikings defense. Philadelphia has won 4-STRAIGHT road games by double-digits and if Minnesota
can't put pressure on Foles early this game could get ugly. Vikings will struggle to score if this
becomes a scoring toe-to-toe match and not because RB A. Peterson will be out but mentally this
team is just struggling to keep it together. Philadelphia wins another game, another road game,
and inches closer to the division crown. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against
the Vikings and Minnesota is 3-12-1 ATS in Week 15.

2 Unit Play. #327 Take Kansas City -4 ½ over Oakland (4:05p.m., Sunday, Dec 15)
Lately Kansas City against good teams not good but against bad teams with bad Qb's
outstanding. That is pretty much what I'm looking at in this game. Look for the KC defense taking
control of this game early and if Alex Smith stays in control and makes no mistakes the Chiefs win
by a touchdown or more. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and the Raiders are 3-
7-1 in their last 11 games in December

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DOC

7 Unit Play. #310 Take Over 41.5 in Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) NFL Game of the Year. The Titans got lit up last week by Peyton Manning, and we expect another high-scoring affair Sunday in the Music City. The Titans have gone over today's posted number in five of their last six games, and I really believe that both teams will reach the 20s in scoring. Tennessee has gone over the posted total in their last five home games. Tennessee has also gone over the posted total in eight of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

Not much bad can be said about the Cardinals as they are in the playoff hunt and have a great offensive mind as a coach in Bruce Arians. The Cardinals have gone over the posted total in 38 of their last 54 games when allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Redbirds will be without the Honey Badger for this game, and that weakens their secondary a great deal. We will not worry about who wins this game and just focus on the total.

4 Unit Play. #314 Take New York Giants +7 over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Giants were officially eliminated from the playoffs with their loss last week at San Diego, but no reasonable people believed in them making a run after they lost to Dallas a couple of weeks ago. That being said, I do not expect them to throw in the towel, and thus they will be competitive at home against Seattle. This is the second straight road game for the Seahawks, and this is a cross-country flight into New Jersey. Seattle is coming off back-to-back games against playoffs teams from the NFC, and I just do not believe that they will be up for this game. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against NFC teams. This is an early start for a West Coast team, and I believe they will not be ready to play.

4 Unit Play. #321 Take Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 over Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Vikings have played well down the stretch despite being out of the playoff hunt for quite some time. That being said, they are running into a buzz saw playing Philadelphia. The Eagles put forth a great performance in the second half last week against Detroit, the team that leads the NFC North. Minnesota will likely be without their only playmaker on offense for this game, and that will be a burden too big to overcome. The Eagles are 6-0 in games that QB Nick Foles starts and finishes. Minnesota's defense has allowed 29 touchdown passes this year, and expect QB Foles to add to this total. Philadelphia has covered four straight road games. Minnesota is 3-12 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 games played during Week 15.

4 Unit Play. #327 Take Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) This is a big public play as many of the football newsletters that come out early in the week are all on Kansas City. The Chiefs just beat a dysfunctional team on the road last Sunday, and they will get another chance this Sunday. Oakland has shown signs of being competitive this season, but they have been struggling of late, losing three straight games and five of their last six. The Chiefs just match up well with the Raiders as the Chiefs has a strong defense and Oakland just does not get many big plays from the passing game. Andy Reid always has a knack for beating bad teams when his teams are strong, and today will be no different. Oakland is allowing 26 points per game. I do not see a huge blowout by the Chiefs like last week against Washington, but I do see a double-digit victory. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. 84% of the bets are coming in on KC, and we will get in on the action as well. Oakland is 3-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games played during December.

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RxPops69
DEC 15-8-1


Manhattan -4.5

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Pick Addict

Carolina Panthers -10

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Joe Gavazzi NFL

Joe Gavazzi Sides (21-12 Run)
4% San Francisco -5
3% Arizona -2.5
4% Indianapolis -4
4% Philadelphia -6.5
3% Kansas City -4.5
2% Opinion Cincinnati Bengals

Gavazzi Totals (20-11 Run)
4% Atlanta Over 50
3% Arizona Over 42
4% Cleveland Over 42
4% Minnesota Over 50.5

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Root: Upset Club. Cleveland, Minnesota, Millionaire Tampa Bay

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CKO

Confidential Kick-Off

10 SAN FRANCISCO over *Tampa Bay
Late Score Forecast:
SAN FRANCISCO 28 - *Tampa Bay 13
(Sunday, December 15)

10 *MIAMI over New England
Late CKO score forecast:
*MIAMI 30 - New England 23
(Sunday, December 15)

NINE-RATED GAMES:
DENVER (-11½) vs. San Diego [Thursday Night]—Cold? What cold?; Practically Perfect Peyton lays 51 on Tennessee, passing for 397 yards while wearing a glove on his throwing hand...
PITTSBURGH (+2) vs. Cincinnati—Key Steeler RB Le’Veon Bell and TE Heath Miller missed the first
meeting between these two due to injury; Bengals only 2-4-1 vs. the spread on the road.

TOTALS:
UNDER (39; est.) in the New York Jets-Carolina Game—Both teams feature strong defenses, but the Jets will be lucky to even be going forward vs. the Panther front seven...
OVER (51½) in the Philadelphia-Minnesota Game—The Vikes’ banged-up secondary will have a hard time deciphering Chip Kelly’s deceptive offense, with its play-action and excellent TEs; Minnesota has gone “over” 11 of 13 games this season (“over” 4 of 5 at home).

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ALLEN EASTMAN

3-Unit Play Take #323 Philadelphia (-4.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
The Eagles should be able to get this road win in Minnesota. The Eagles are feeling good after their big win at home last year in the snow against Detroit. The Vikings lost in the last second at Baltimore. They lost Adrian Peterson to injury. This team has nothing to play for. The Eagles are playing to win their division and won't take this game for granted. Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the favorite is 5-2 ATS the last seven times these teams have played.

2-Unit Play.[/COLOR] Take #313 Seattle (-7) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
This one should be all the way of the Seahawks. They are coming off a rare loss last week to San Francisco. This team is still in a race for home field advantage and the NO. 1 seed in the NFC> They will need this win. The Giants are a team with nothing to play for. Their season is over. The Giants were blown out last week by the Chargers. They are turning the ball over too much and that will hurt them against a team with a tough defense like Seattle. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games against the NFC. Seattle is 9-2 ATS on the road. Lay the points.

4-Unit Play[/COLOR]. Take #318 Indianapolis (-5.5) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
The Colts are coming off a bad loss at Cincinnati last week. They will bounce back at home. Houston just fired coach Gary Kubiak. This team is ready to quit on the season. They have lost 10 straight games and are just 3-7 ATS in those games. They have not been good enough to beat teams like the Jaguars and the Raiders. Indianapolis has won and covered three of the last four meetings. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings. Andrew Luck and the Colts should have an easy time against this failed Texans team.

7-Unit Play Take #326 Carolina (-11) over New York Jets (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
AND
3-Unit Play Take First Half #326 Carolina (-6) over New York (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
This is my NFL Game of the Month.
The Panthers are going to win this one in a blowout. I thought that this spread would be around 14.5. The Panthers had their winning streak snapped last week in New Orleans. They will not be happy and will want to get another big win here on Sunday. The Panthers won their last home game 27-6. They have been a double-digit favorite one other time this year. They were -10 against the Falcons and won 34-10 over Atlanta. The Jets have been a terrible road team this year! They lost their last three road games 19-3, 37-14 and 49-9. They also lost 38-13 on the road earlier this year to Tennessee. Carolina is just too tough for the Jets. I expect the Panthers defense to dominate this game against rookie quarterback Geno Smith. I think that this will be another game where the Jets get blown out by at least three touchdowns and this one should be all Panthers from start to finish.

4-Unit Play Take #327 Kansas City (-4) over Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
This play is from the NFL 411 System.
The Chiefs are one of the best teams in football. They should blow out their rivals this weekend on the road just like they did to the Redskins last week. This series has been dominated by the road team. The visitor is 21-7-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games out in Oakland. The Raiders were blown out last week against the Jets. They have lost three straight and they have lost five of their last seven games. This team is really struggling. Kansas City will get the job done. The books have had to move this line in some places so bet it now before it comes off four.

3-Unit Play Take #311 New Orleans (-6) over St. Louis (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
The Saints are the much better team in this game. They won another blowout last week over Carolina. They are ahead in the division and won't want to slip up here. The Saints are not a great road team. But they are playing in a dome this week and that should benefit them. The Rams have been blown out each of the last two weeks. They have lost two of their last three home games. The Rams are just 2-7 ATS against the NFC and the Rams are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 15. New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games in December. Lay the points.

4-Unit Play Take #311 Cincinnati (-2) over Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 15)
This play is from the NFL 411 System.
The Steelers lost another heartbreaker last week. That is two straight games that they lost in the final seconds. Those two losses have ruined their season and any hope for the playoffs. The Bengals are going to the postseason. They are a tough team that won in a blowout last week against the Colts. Cincinnati beat the Steelers by 10 points in the first meeting this season. The road team has done well in this series and is 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Bengals have much better numbers on defense and Cincinnati's offense is improving. The Bengals have won and covered the spread in three straight and five of their last seven. They are favored for a reason. They will get a hard win over their hated division rival.

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

6-Unit Play Take #313 Seattle (-7) over New York Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, December 15)
The New York Giants do one of two things towards the end of an NFL Season. They either A) go on a tear and finish the regular season strong and make the playoffs, or B) get destroyed in their last four or five games. They set the tone for the latter with their atrocious effort last weekend in their double-digit loss to the San Diego Chargers. This Giants squad is going to lay down and die over the last few weeks of the season and that is going to be extremely evident in this match up with the Seahawks. Seattle has a ton to play for as home field advantage is their ticket to the Super Bowl. With a one game lead on the Saints, they will want to do everything they can not to let any games slip through their fingers. The weather is supposedly going to be bad in New York/New Jersey this weekend but that won't hinder Seattle's game plan. Russell Wilson and his supporting cast know how to play in bad weather and they will be just fine moving the ball both on the ground and through the air. Seattle's defense will put the clamps on Eli and his cast as once the Seahawks get up, they will take advantage of the Giants turnovers that we all know are coming. Seattle is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Seahawks are 3-0 ATS in their last three games in which they outrushed their opponent. I see that happening again this Sunday as the Giants won't be able to move the ball through the air versus the Seahawks solid pass defense. Not only are the 3-0 ATS but they have won those three games by an average of nearly 21 points a game. Take the road team in this one as the Giants are going to give up in front of their home crowd.

3-Unit Play Take #323 Philadelphia (-4.5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, December 15)
I have absolutely no idea why Vegas continues to give the Eagles short lines? This Philadelphia team is playing great football and they know that the NFC East is theirs for the taking. They will be focused and ready each and every Sunday and they can accidentally win/cover this game. Philly has quietly done everything that Carolina has done over the last month but no one is talking about the Eagles. Philly has won seven of their last nine games S.U. and has won six of those seven wins by at least eight points (including five by at least 11 points). Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with Minnesota, and the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games between the two teams. Take Philly here as they win this game by double figures as the Vikings try to figure out how to move the ball with either Toby Gerhart or an really banged up Adrian Peterson.

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MTI's Two Team Teaser

MTi's 2-team, 6-point teasers

4-Star Tennessee +9, Pittsburgh +8.5

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Championship Football Picks

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Bucs
Championships Pick: over 41 for 3 units

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
Championships Pick: under 41 for 3 units

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Championships Pick: under 50 for 3 units